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Foreign Policy Centre

Ideas for a fairer world

Articles and Briefings

The FPC publishes articles, FPC Briefings and other short papers by its members of staff, research associates and occasionally by other authors. The views expressed in all Foreign Policy Centre articles and briefings are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect those of the Foreign Policy Centre.

> Summary note 4- Investing in women's economic resilience & social wellbeing

By Foreign Policy Centre.

Part of the 'Africa Rising? Building Africa's Productive Capacity for Inclusive Growth' series

In a series of Foreign Policy Centre (FPC) roundtable discussions - supported by Nestlé - the FPC seeks to explore how business can play a more constructive role in building resilience to improve women's economic and social wellbeing across Africa.

This series of roundtable discussions is taking place at a time when global development priorities are being reshaped and redefined by the 17 recently adopted UN Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Climate Change agreement (COP21) which aspires to keep global temperature rises below 1.5°C (above pre-industrial levels) however, has yet to provide the commitments needed to achieve this. In addition, at a time when the level of global inequality and insecurity disproportionately affecting women and girls continues to be compounded by the aftermath of an unprecedented global economic crisis, on-going global economic fragility and austerity producing mounting uncertainty. These conditions present very real challenges for public spending dedicated to sustainable development. As such, understanding the development transformation role played by business and enterprise across both the formal and informal sectors has become increasingly important. How does private sector development support structural transformation and enhance sustainable development outcomes? This might range from wealth and investment creation to employment-led growth. Private sector development might also include driving innovation and technological development or help to build essential infrastructure. Furthermore, business might also support enterprise development, help improve the quality of work and provide much needed skills development and improved productivity.

This summary note reflects the discussions which took place at the fourth session which focused on how science and technology can help drive more open and inclusive innovation to explore how best women and girls across Africa might be empowered to meaningfully contribute to shaping sustainable development solutions which address the challenges they face across agriculture and the rural economy. In essence, what works, what doesn't and how can success be appropriately scaled-up and replicated?

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Download Summary note 4-Women's economic resilience &social wellbeing (170 kilobyte PDF)


> FPC Briefing: Da'ish, the Ikhwan and Lessons from History

By Grant Helm, Dr Simon Mabon.

This FPC Briefing from Dr Simon Mabon and Grant Helm explores the historical antecedents of Da'ish and their complicated relationship with the rulers of Saudi Arabia.

Download FPC Briefing: Da'ish, the Ikhwan and Lessons from History (560 kilobyte PDF)


> FPC Briefing: Saudi Arabia – US Relations and the Failure of Riyadh's Securitization Project

By Dr Simon Mabon.

Following the signing of the nuclear deal between the P5+1 and Iran in late 2015, relations between Saudi Arabia and the United States have become increasingly fractious. Since then, with questions about the release of a number of classified pages of the 9/11 commission report, along with increasing concerns at the kingdom's human rights record, the relationship between Riyadh and Washington is at the lowest point in decades. This briefing by Dr Simon Mabon offers an explanation for the deterioration of the relationship between the two.

Download FPC Briefing Saudi Arabia – US Relations (550 kilobyte PDF)


> Russian Pragmatism: making the right choices in 2016

By Samuel Rogers.

For the remainder of the second half of the second decade of the twenty-first century, Russia has an unprecedented number of internal and external issues (addressed below), which have combined to reach a critical point, not seen since the end of communism and the collapse of the Soviet Union a quarter of a century ago. Taking these concerns together, they have the potential for increased internal upheaval in the form of a repeat of the street protests in 2011, high levels of capital flight (though this risk receded slightly in late 2015) and further deterioration in relations with 'partners' such as the US and European states are genuinely realistic. The list of problems that Russia faces is long and has increased, especially since the onset of the Ukraine Crisis and the annexation of Crimea in February 2014. The issues can be divided into two categories: internal and external.

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> Oman – The Quiet Diplomat

By James Denselow.

In a Middle East increasingly defined by the fires of war it takes a lot of work to keep out of the headlines. The Sultanate of Oman doesn't have the record breaking tall buildings of its Gulf neighbours and has ensured that the worsening violence in Yemen has not spilled over across its borders. Instead, away from the international focus that tends to follow events in Syria, Israel-Palestine and Iraq, Oman is working the levers of quiet diplomacy behind the scenes.

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> Summary note 3- Investing in women's economic resilience & social wellbeing

By Foreign Policy Centre.

Part of the 'Africa Rising? Building Africa's Productive Capacity for Inclusive Growth' series

In a series of Foreign Policy Centre (FPC) roundtable discussions - supported by Nestlé - the FPC seeks to explore how business can play a more constructive role in building resilience to improve women's economic and social wellbeing across Africa. The proposed series of roundtable discussions come at a time when global development priorities are being reshaped and redefined in the wake of a post-2015 UN Millennium Development Goals' agenda. In addition, 2015 marks the 15th anniversary of the adoption of Security Council Resolution 1325 on women, peace and security. This resolution promotes the importance of women in building peace and security in states affected by conflict. All this is coupled with the fact that the global economic recovery remains fragile. Existing inequality and insecurity disproportionately affects women, and has been compounded by the unprecedented global economic crisis, on-going austerity and mounting uncertainty. These conditions present very real challenges for public spending dedicated to development. As such, understanding the development transformation role played by business and enterprise has become increasingly important.

This summary note reflects the discussions which took place at the third session which focused on environmental resource management. The event attempted to understand how best to support women to adapt to a changing environment (with respect to water scarcity, climate change challenges, energy insecurity etc.) and balance conservation and consumption in an age of scarcity and uncertainty. In essence, what works, what doesn't and how can success be appropriately scaled-up and replicated?

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Download Summary note 3-Women's economic resilience &social wellbeing (120 kilobyte PDF)


> FPC Briefing: Extradition- Time to remove the nationality bar

By Andrew Southam.

In this FPC Briefing Research Associate Andrew Southam examines the nationality protection used by a number of countries to prohibit the extradition of alleged criminals to face trial. This contrasts with the practice of a number of countries including the US and UK that do not refuse to return their own citizens to face trial, provided due process has been followed and proper safeguards are in place. This briefing sets out the situation and calls for steps towards removing the nationality bar from extradition practices. Southam argues that such a bar is against the modern trend to streamline extradition procedures, is an unnecessary protection given other safeguards, and is contrary to wider international initiatives to combat crime. The briefing makes suggestions about how this can be achieved and explores the benefits and disadvantages of alternatives, including local prosecutions.

Download FPC Briefing: Extradition-Time to remove the nationality bar (440 kilobyte PDF)


> FPC Briefing: The EU on human rights- Turning words into action

By Jacqueline Hale.

In this new FPC Briefing by Senior Research Associate Jacqueline Hale examines the EU's record on promoting human rights, democracy, the rule of law and international justice through its external actions following the launch of its global human rights policy in 2012. Following the failures of the Arab Spring, a troubled neighbourhood policy, deepening tensions with Russia, a 'migration crisis', rising xenophobia and efforts to undermine human rights by member states' governments ranging from Hungary to the UK Hale explores the more challenging context into which the EU's human rights policy has been revised in 2015. She argues that despite its roots as a peace project and community of rules and norms, in practice the EU has consistently underperformed on human rights, and its own values project is frequently undermined amid growing internal and external challenges. The briefing examines whether the EU will be able to learn the lessons of past failures, and address the growing gap between rousing words on paper and lack of political will to act on the rhetoric. It examines the 2015-19 human rights action plan in light of the EU's mixed record so far and argues that this time round, the EU has every interest in producing a human rights policy with teeth.

Download FPC Briefing: The EU on human rights- words into action (360 kilobyte PDF)


> FPC Briefing: How Do International Economic Sanctions (Not) Work?

By Dr Lee Jones.

In this new FPC Briefing Dr Lee Jones argues that instead of simply asking whether sanctions work, the international community should first ask: 'how are they supposed to effect the change we seek, and do they actually "work" this way in practice?' This research looks into how 'economic pain' translates – or fails to translate – into 'political gain' in target states. The starting point for Jones is that political outcomes in target states are predominantly determined by struggles between ruling and opposition coalitions of social and political forces. Sanctions 'work' by manipulating the political economy of targets, with consequences for the composition of forces contesting state power, plus their resources, alliances and strategies. Where sanctions can compel ruling and opposition coalitions to adopt strategic responses that meet the goals of those imposing sanctions, they may be 'successful'. However, this is generally possible only where opposition groups are already powerful and well organised. In contexts where oppositions are weak and fragmented, sanctions tend to entrench their exclusion from power, even if they also manage to weaken ruling coalitions. Since this is often the case in states where sanctions are used, sanctions are often ineffective. The briefing gives some suggestions for policymakers that include the need for careful planning, including plausibly specifying the mechanisms by which they expect sanctions to operate. If the mechanisms cannot be identified, Dr Jones argues sanctions should not be imposed.

Download FPC Briefing: International Economic Sanctions (400 kilobyte PDF)


> FPC Briefing: Preventing Violence Against Women: The Case of Iraq

By Ludovica Di Giorgi, Dr Simon Mabon.

In this FPC Briefing Research Associate Dr Simon Mabon and Ludovicia Di Giorgi examine the deteriorating situation regarding violence against women in Iraq, in areas both under Government and ISIS control.

Download the article (390 kilobyte PDF)


> FPC Briefing: The Moral and the Strategic-The UK's Response to the Syrian Crisis

By Dr Simon Mabon.

In recent days there has been a great deal of debate surrounding the humanitarian imperatives for aiding refugees from the Middle East. This new briefing by Dr Simon Mabon builds upon these arguments to suggest that there are also strategic reasons for helping with the crisis that could contribute to the response to ISIS.

Download FPC Briefing: The Moral and the Strategic-the UK and Syria (550 kilobyte PDF)


> FPC Briefing: Russia's changing role in Central Asia - the post-Ukraine context, and implications

By Craig Oliphant.

FPC Senior Research Associate Craig Oliphant examines the strategic, economic and political challenges Russia faces dealing with the states of Central Asia. He explores the impact of the Ukraine crisis on the relationship between Russia and Central Asia and examines the growing influence of China in the region and what it means for Moscow's long-term role.

Download FPC Briefing: Russia's changing role in Central Asia (550 kilobyte PDF)


> FPC Briefing: Separating historical fact from political fiction-reconsidering Japan's militaristic past

By Dr Matthew Funaiole.

In this new FPC Briefing Dr Matthew Funaiole takes the upcoming 70th anniversary of the Pacific War (World War II) as an opportunity to assess the controversy in Japan about its international posture. Prime Minister Abe has in recent months repeatedly struck the nationalist war drum, leaving leaders in Beijing and Seoul increasingly worried about a resurgent Japan. While Abe's vision for Japan does circumvent the pacifist aspects of the Japanese constitution, greater understanding into Japan's imperial past is needed before evaluating Abe's policies. This briefing explores Japan's complicated relationship with the West to better understand the origins of Japanese imperialism and the lasting impact of Japan's pacifist constitution.

Download the article (520 kilobyte PDF)


> FPC Briefing: Governing Non-Traditional Security Threats by Transforming States- Trends and Challenges

By Dr Shahar Hameiri, Dr Lee Jones.

In this new Foreign Policy Centre Briefing, Dr Shahar Hameiri and Dr Lee Jones examine international community responses to 'non-traditional' security threats (NTS) – transboundary issues such as pandemic diseases, transnational crime, drug smuggling and people trafficking. They argue that the primary focus of the security response involves attempts to change the behaviour of individual states' domestic institutions and networking them across borders with their counterparts and international agencies. While this approach is seen as a way of avoiding international political conflict, Hameiri and Jones argue that the outcomes of these apparently technocratic interventions are shaped by domestic political struggles in target states. To attain better outcomes, the international community needs to be more aware of the domestic political impact of their interventions and build supportive coalitions with powerful domestic groups.

Download FPC Briefing: Governing Non-Traditional Security Threats (700 kilobyte PDF)


> Summary note 2- Investing in women's economic resilience & social wellbeing

By Foreign Policy Centre.

Part of the 'Africa Rising? Building Africa's Productive Capacity for Inclusive Growth' series

In a series of Foreign Policy Centre (FPC) roundtable discussions - supported by Nestlé - the FPC seeks to explore how business can play a more constructive role in building resilience to improve women's economic and social wellbeing across Africa. The proposed series of roundtable discussions come at a time when global development priorities are being reshaped and redefined in the wake of a post-2015 UN Millennium Development Goals' agenda. In addition, 2015 marks the 15th anniversary of the adoption of Security Council Resolution 1325 on women, peace and security. This resolution promotes the importance of women in building peace and security in states affected by conflict. All this is coupled with the fact that the global economic recovery remains fragile. Existing inequality and insecurity disproportionately affects women, and has been compounded by the unprecedented global economic crisis, on-going austerity and mounting uncertainty. These conditions present very real challenges for public spending dedicated to development. As such, understanding the development transformation role played by business and enterprise has become increasingly important.

This summary note reflects the discussions which took place at the second session which focused on female entrepreneurship, employment and agricultural development with particular reference to promoting food and nutritional security by improving support to women producers.

Full text >

Download Summary note 2-Women's economic resilience &social wellbeing (100 kilobyte PDF)


> FPC Briefing: Daesh, Geopolitics and the Resurgence of Pan Arabism?

By Dr Simon Mabon.

FPC Research Associate Dr Simon Mabon and his colleague Lucia Ardovini analyse the response of key regional actors in the Middle East to the rising threat of daesh (ISIS/ISIL), looking at differing Iranian, Saudi and Egyptian approaches.

Download FPC Briefing: Daesh, Geopolitics and Pan Arabism (490 kilobyte PDF)


> Should the United States attempt to reform Islam?

By Dr. Gregorio Bettiza.

Should American foreign policymakers attempt to reform major world religions? This may sound like a hubristic, at best, if not a potentially dangerous and misguided idea, at worse. Yet, this is what the United States has, in essence, been attempting to do with Islam and Muslims since 9/11. Since that tragic September morning in 2001, many policy analysts in the United States came to understand the attacks and the ensuing War on Terror as part of an ongoing struggle for the future direction of Islam and the hearts and minds of Muslims. In the process, a wide range of domestic and foreign policy initiatives have emerged over the past decades designed to intervene in theological debates within Islam and encourage Muslims to 'speak out' against terrorism, while also seeking to defuse clash of civilizations narratives and promote a positive image of America in the so-called Muslim world.

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> The EU's approach to Azerbaijan: short-term gain, long-term pain

By Rebecca Vincent.

Over the past year, the Azerbaijani authorities have engaged in their worst human rights crackdown yet, working more aggressively than ever before to silence critical groups and individuals. By the end of 2014, there were reports of nearly 100 political prisoners in Azerbaijan, including many of the country's most prominent journalists and human rights defenders. The most active local human rights NGOs were shut down, and several international organisations were effectively driven out of the country. Authorities raided and then shut down the Baku office of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, one of the few remaining independent media outlets in the country.

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> Summary note 1- Investing in women's economic resilience & social wellbeing

By Foreign Policy Centre.

Part of the 'Africa Rising? Building Africa's Productive Capacity for Inclusive Growth' series

In a series of Foreign Policy Centre (FPC) roundtable discussions - supported by Nestlé - the FPC seeks to explore how business can play a more constructive role in building resilience to improve women's economic and social wellbeing across Africa. The proposed series of roundtable discussions come at a time when global development priorities are being reshaped and redefined in the wake of a post-2015 UN Millennium Development Goals' agenda. In addition, 2015 marks the 15th anniversary of the adoption of Security Council Resolution 1325 on women, peace and security. This resolution promotes the importance of women in building peace and security in states affected by conflict. All this is coupled with the fact that the global economic recovery remains fragile. Existing inequality and insecurity disproportionately affects women, and has been compounded by the unprecedented global economic crisis, on-going austerity and mounting uncertainty. These conditions present very real challenges for public spending dedicated to development. As such, understanding the development transformation role played by business and enterprise has become increasingly important.

This summary note reflects the discussions which took place at the opening session which aimed to explore the opportunities and challenges of private sector development in transforming the lives, livelihoods and enterprise of women across Africa.

Full text >

Download Summary note 1-Women's economic resilience &social wellbeing (130 kilobyte PDF)


> Lima calling, but UN climate summit leaves massive workload for 2015

By Stephen Minas.

After the deadlock between national delegations to this year's United Nations climate change summit had been broken at half past one on Sunday morning, the president of the conference, Peruvian minister Manuel Pulgar-Vidal, made a request: that the resulting document be known as the 'Lima Call for Climate Action'.

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> The challenge of health and healthcare for Africa

By Dr Titilola Banjoko.

In many countries, the health indices and healthcare services can make or break those running for elections. This does not seem to be the case in Africa. According to facts compiled by the World Health Organisation (WHO) for Africa - Atlas of Health Statistics 2011, the life expectancy across the continent stands at 53. This expectancy rate is low compared to other global regions where the average is 68. In addition, 71% of communicable diseases are transmitted in Africa compared to a global average of 39.7%.

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> Russia's drug users have a right to needles, methadone and dignity

By Anya Sarang.

Before Russia wrested control of the Crimean peninsula in March this year, HIV transmission rates were falling in this region, thanks to life-saving schemes offered to drug users including needle syringe programmes and opioid substitution therapies (OST), such as the provision of methadone. But since coming under Russia's draconian drug laws, these schemes have been closed down, leading to at least 20 deaths already. Russia's dangerous stance toward drug users is causing untold harm in the fight against AIDS on the streets of our own cities and towns today. A shadowy world of drug-taking and rampant HIV infection pervades some of the most vulnerable groups in our society, who are stigmatised and marginalised by a state that refuses to take responsibility for their plight.

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> From the streets to a tragedy: A change in the Brazilian election panorama

By Thiago de Aragao.

The Brazilian elections are taking an unexpected path since the protests that happened in June 2013. On that occasion political analysts were asking themselves what could have been the drivers that motivated millions of Brazilians to take the streets protesting not only against the government, but against the political system as a whole.

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> Britons have already said no to citizens travelling abroad to fight, no matter what the cause

By Prof Thomas J. Scotto, Dr Jason Reifler, Prof Paul Whiteley, Prof Harold Clarke.

In this article, four senior UK and US academics use data gathered in a May 2014 survey they commissioned that focused on British foreign policy attitudes. The researchers asked UK respondents how the British Government should deal with UK nationals travelling abroad to fight against al-Assad in Syria, in Ukraine, and against Boko Haram in Nigeria. They found that pluralities of respondents in all three situations favour stripping such individuals of UK citizenship, and less than 20% of those surveyed believe the Government should allow its citizens to fight in any of these emerging conflicts. They argue that Home Secretary Theresa May would have public support behind her if, as planned, new measures are brought forth to crack down on UK citizens fighting for foreign armies or groups.

Download Britons have already said no to citizens fighting abroad (440 kilobyte PDF)


> FPC Briefing: Seven geo-political challenges facing China

By Dr Matthew Funaiole.

This FPC Briefing by Matthew Funaiole examines seven of the key current geopolitical challenges currently facing China. Issues covered include the ambiguous regional order, the disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands, the North Korean nuclear weapons program, cross strait relations with Taiwan, energy reserves in the South China Sea, domestic separatist movements in Xinjiang and Tibet, and the challenges of energy security and climate change.

Download FPC Briefing: Seven geo-political challenges facing China (900 kilobyte PDF)


> FPC Briefing: IS, Regional Security and the End of Sykes-Picot

By Dr Stephen Royle, Dr Simon Mabon.

In this briefing paper Dr Simon Mabon and Dr Stephen Royle examine the rise of the so-called 'Islamic State' or IS group in Syria and Iraq. They explore roots of sovereignty in the region and possible approaches for regional actors and the international community to take in combating the threat posed by IS.

Download IS, Regional Security and the End of Sykes-Picot (340 kilobyte PDF)


> BRICS Development Bank: Challenges and opportunities for Africa

By William Gumede.

FPC Senior Research Associate William Gumede provides his insight into future challenges and opportunities for Africa following an agreement by the leaders of the BRICS to establish a BRICS Development Bank.

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> The shape of things to come in Turkish politics

By Dr Marc Herzog.

Turkey's first ever direct elections for the presidency held on August 10th ended according to general expectations. The country's current Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan won with almost 52% of the vote, thus securing victory in the first round of balloting. His two challengers, Ekmeleddin Ihsanoðlu and Selahattin Demirtas; only managed to garner 38% and 10% respectively.

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> Summary note- Enterprising Africa: What role can financial inclusion play in driving employment-led growth?-Roundtable 3

By Foreign Policy Centre.

Financial inclusion and jobs: Drivers of development and growth in Africa?

How might improving the access, distribution and use of a wide range of affordable and appropriate financial services and products (financial inclusion) facilitate job creation and stimulate balanced economic growth across Africa? In addition, how might the private sector build partnerships to champion strong leadership, sustainable innovation and responsible engagement in order to help develop an enabling environment where universal financial inclusion and employment-led growth can thrive?

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Download Summary note 3-Financial inclusion and employment-led growth (130 kilobyte PDF)


> The State Monitors Citizens Monitoring the State: The New Face of Civic Engagement in Russia

By Dr Catherine Owen.

On 2 July 2014, the Russian State Duma passed the highly controversial draft law 'On the Foundations of Public Oversight in the Russian Federation' at its second reading. This law defines the basis on which citizens may interact with authorities and stipulates that such interaction can only be conducted through state-sanctioned bodies. Now in the hands of the Russian parliament's Upper House, which must give its approval before the draft can become law, the proposals could have profound implications for civic participation in governance and should be of great concern to those who care about civil liberties in Russia.

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> Summary note- Enterprising Africa: What role can financial inclusion play in driving employment-led growth?-Roundtable 2

By Foreign Policy Centre.

Financial inclusion and jobs: Drivers of development and growth in Africa?

How might improving the access, distribution and use of a wide range of affordable and appropriate financial services and products (financial inclusion) facilitate job creation and stimulate balanced economic growth across Africa? In addition, how might the private sector build partnerships to champion strong leadership, sustainable innovation and responsible engagement in order to help develop an enabling environment where universal financial inclusion and employment-led growth can thrive?

Full text >

Download Summary note 2-Financial inclusion and employment-led growth (130 kilobyte PDF)


> Summary note- Enterprising Africa: What role can financial inclusion play in driving employment-led growth?-Roundtable 1

By Foreign Policy Centre.

Financial inclusion and jobs: Drivers of development and growth in Africa?

How might improving the access, distribution and use of a wide range of affordable and appropriate financial services and products (financial inclusion) facilitate job creation and stimulate balanced economic growth across Africa? In addition, how might the private sector build partnerships to champion strong leadership, sustainable innovation and responsible engagement in order to help develop an enabling environment where universal financial inclusion and employment-led growth can thrive?

Full text >

Download Summary note 1-Financial inclusion and employment-led growth (150 kilobyte PDF)


> Why Pakistan is the key to Britain's South Asian renaissance

By Jack Goodman.

Pakistan receives more British aid than any other country. The Department for International Development (DfID) estimates that Pakistan will receive £350million annually by 2015. But a relationship underpinned by development aid for security has changed.

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> Summary note - Employment, enterprise and skills: building business infrastructure for African development- Roundtable 2

By Foreign Policy Centre.

Refocusing the development agenda

The current global financial crisis has led to an economic age of unprecedented austerity, mounting uncertainty and rising inequality. Today, there is a pressing need to forge a new global consensus on how best to build Africa's productive capacity. In essence: supporting the continent to develop and employ its productive resources, harness and grow its entrepreneurial capabilities and build robust and dynamic networks and linkages essential for supporting the production of goods and services to power national and regional economies. In order to move beyond the Millennium Development Goals, no longer can addressing the multiple challenges of how to promote development transformation, cultivate entrepreneurship and drive employment-led growth continue to be considered in isolation. How can the physical, social and human capital needed to expand business and enterprise development in the formal sector be promoted? How might access to, as well as the distribution of appropriate business education, skills and training across Africa be improved, replicated and scaled-up?

Mounting global concerns about inclusive growth are illustrated by the World Bank's 2013 World Development Report, focused on jobs and the G20 development agenda's training strategy explored developing employment related skills. Yet, there are a number of issues which need to be considered. How can national development strategies focus on job creation? How best can their impacts be measured and scaled-up? Beyond micro-enterprise, how best can entrepreneurship be developed and fostered within and beyond national borders? Which investment and trade sectors have the greatest development impact potential, particularly with respect to creating professional employment for young people and women? How best can such sectors be developed and supported? What type of investments are required in education, training and skills development to enhance business infrastructure, expand networks and build the innovations required to transform long term employment prospects?

Download Summary Note-Employment, enterprise and skills-Roundtable 2 (110 kilobyte PDF)


> Summary note - Employment, enterprise and skills: building business infrastructure for African development- Roundtable 1

By Foreign Policy Centre.

Refocusing the development agenda

The current global financial crisis has led to an economic age of unprecedented austerity, mounting uncertainty and rising inequality. Today, there is a pressing need to forge a new global consensus on how best to build Africa's productive capacity. In essence: supporting the continent to develop and employ its productive resources, harness and grow its entrepreneurial capabilities and build robust and dynamic networks and linkages essential for supporting the production of goods and services to power national and regional economies. In order to move beyond the Millennium Development Goals, no longer can addressing the multiple challenges of how to promote development transformation, cultivate entrepreneurship and drive employment-led growth continue to be considered in isolation. How can the physical, social and human capital needed to expand business and enterprise development in the formal sector be promoted? How might access to, as well as the distribution of appropriate business education, skills and training across Africa be improved, replicated and scaled-up?

Mounting global concerns about inclusive growth are illustrated by the World Bank's 2013 World Development Report, focused on jobs and the G20 development agenda's training strategy explored developing employment related skills. Yet, there are a number of issues which need to be considered. How can national development strategies focus on job creation? How best can their impacts be measured and scaled-up? Beyond micro-enterprise, how best can entrepreneurship be developed and fostered within and beyond national borders? Which investment and trade sectors have the greatest development impact potential, particularly with respect to creating professional employment for young people and women? How best can such sectors be developed and supported? What type of investments are required in education, training and skills development to enhance business infrastructure, expand networks and build the innovations required to transform long term employment prospects?

Download Summary Note-Employment, enterprise and skills-Roundtable 1 (120 kilobyte PDF)


> FPC Briefing: Above all, a Prime Minister for Palestinian Unity?

By Dr Stephen Royle.

Dr Stephen Royle, who has been a consultant to the outgoing Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Rami Hamdallah, gives his views on the progress made over the last year under Hamdallah's leadership.

Download FPC Briefing: Above all, a Prime Minister for Unity? (340 kilobyte PDF)


> FPC Briefing: Climate change cooperation within the Global South: Finance, policy and institutions

By Stephen Minas.

FPC Research Associate Stephen Minas analyses the growing and dynamic area of climate change cooperation in the Global South. His briefing looks at the role of the BRICS and a growing range of other regional groupings that are sharing policy best practice, creating innovative finance arrangements and developing new institutions to tackle the challenges of climate change.

Download FPC Briefing: Climate change cooperation in the Global South (440 kilobyte PDF)


> FPC Briefing: Turkey's Year-Long Election Cycle

By Firdevs Robinson.

FPC Senior Research Associate Firdevs Robinson gives her analysis of the recent local government elections in Turkey. She examines the pre-election corruption scandals and government pressure on the media and access to YouTube and Twitter. She looks ahead at what the successful result for the ruling AKP means for the August 2014 Presidential elections.

Download FPC Briefing: Turkey's Year-Long Election Cycle (370 kilobyte PDF)


> Syria's Forever War

By James Denselow.

Last month saw the third anniversary of the conflict in Syria that is traced back to children in Daraa writing graffiti on walls. In the same month Rwanda marked the 20th anniversary of its genocide, although now unlike then we can't say that we didn't know what was happening. This year also marks the 100 year anniversary of the start of World War One and the advent of 'total war' that in Syria is something more akin to 'total civil war'. The third anniversary of this bloody denouement of 'the Arab Spring' is a moment of reflection towards a crisis in which there is far more availability of information over what is happening than there is of argument about how to stop it. The phrase 'never again' has been lost to the screams of the over 10,000 children who have died to date. The fact that the UN has stopped counting the dead only compounds attempts to fully realise the scale, depth and ongoing impact of the crisis.

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> FPC Briefing: Carpe Diem- India's 2014 General Elections and the BJP-led NDA

By Dr Chris Ogden .

FPC Senior Research Associate Dr Chris Ogden analyses what a possible victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the upcoming April/May 2014 Indian Parliamentary elections would mean for India. He examines the implications of a new BJP- led coalition (or outright majority) on India's domestic and foreign policy, building on the experience of its past coalition from 1998-2004.

Download FPC Briefing: Carpe Diem- India's 2014 Elections and the BJP (510 kilobyte PDF)


> An Association Agreement with a state that may soon cease to exist?

By Richard Howitt MEP.

Two weeks ago European leaders threatened 'three step' sanctions if Russian forces were not withdrawn from Ukraine, first stopping negotiations with Russia on bilateral matters, then imposing travel bans and asset freezes on named individuals and finally taking economic sanctions.

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> Balancing Ukraine

By Dr Kevork Oskanian.

A mere three months ago, Vladimir Putin probably thought he had scored one of his presidency's greatest coups, when he coerced or persuaded – depending on your perspective - Ukraine's Viktor Yanukovych into abandoning the long-expected initialling of his country's Association Agreement with the EU. Yanukovich's U-turn had, to some extent, been presaged by an earlier about-face – under very similar circumstances – of far smaller Armenia's Sargsyan. And for a while, it appeared that Kiev would sooner or later follow several other former Soviet Republics into the Russian president's latest geopolitical project of choice: the Eurasian Economic Union. The Kremlin probably did expect such a move to invite trouble for someone who, despite an occasionally fraught relationship, had long been seen as "Moscow's man in Kiev". But it probably did not anticipate the ferocity of the wave of indignation that followed, much less foresee Yanukovych's fall, a few months later, as a result.

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> FPC Briefing: Constructing Sectarianisms and Conflict in the Middle East

By Dr Simon Mabon.

Dr Simon Mabon explores the geo-political competition between Saudi Arabia and Iran, looking at how this struggle impacts on local sectarian tensions in Syria, Iraq, Bahrain and Lebanon.

Download FPC Briefing: Constructing Sectarianisms (450 kilobyte PDF)


> FPC Briefing: The path to inclusivity and stability in Kosovo

By Gilberto Algar-Faria.

Gilberto Algar-Faria explores the current situation in Northern Kosovo where ethnic Serbs feel excluded from the state. He examines some of the available options to encourage stability and integration.

Download FPC Briefing: The path to inclusivity & stability in Kosovo (360 kilobyte PDF)


> China sticks to 'red line' in global climate talks while pursuing green transition at home

By Stephen Minas.

The recently concluded Warsaw climate talks - the latest annual conference of parties to the UN climate change convention - were in several respects unusual. The meeting was held in Warsaw's National Stadium, prompting an inevitable flurry of football clichés from participants and reporters (with diplomatic 'own goals', activists brandishing red cards and the talks predictably running into 'extra time'). The Polish government enraged environmental NGOs by simultaneously hosting an 'International Coal and Climate Summit' with the World Coal Association. And as the conference neared its conclusion, the Polish government announced that the conference's president, Marcin Korolec, would be sacked from his position as Poland's environment minister ('I'll be able to fully concentrate on the process of climate negotiations', Korolec gamely assured delegates).

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> Kant versus Machiavelli in Russia's Near Abroad.

By Dr Kevork Oskanian.

And so, the much-awaited Vilnius summit has ended in a whimper. Of the four states that were initially scheduled to initial their Association Agreements with the European Union last week, only two – Moldova and Georgia - have actually taken their crucial step towards the West. Both Armenia, and, more significantly, Eastern economic heavyweight Ukraine had, over the past few months, fallen by the wayside in quite unexpected U-turns, each of which had followed a familiar pattern: both countries' Heads of State headed to Moscow for unscheduled talks, during which they underwent sudden conversions to Putin's rival project, the Eurasian Union. Despite of strenuous denials, most observers reasonably assume these abrupt changes in the long-standing foreign policy objectives of both states to be the result of pressures exerted by the Kremlin.

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> FPC Briefing: Sri Lanka's (geo)political quandary – Government, NPC and international community

By Gilberto Algar-Faria.

As final preparations for the 23rd Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) on 15th-17th November 2013 in Colombo, Sri Lanka, this FPC Briefing by Gilberto Algar-Faria examines the challenges Sri Lanka faces dealing with the aftermath of its civil war and recent attempts to facilitate regional autonomy through the Northern Provincial Council (NPC). It explores the tensions faced by the international community in balancing the need for reconciliation and calls for action on human rights issues.

Download FPC Briefing: Sri Lanka's (geo)political quandary (350 kilobyte PDF)


> FPC Briefing: The Resignation of Bidzina Ivanishvili and the Future of Georgian Politics

By Alexander Jackson.

FPC Research Associate Alexander Jackson examines the background of Georgian Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili's proposed resignation and explores what this might mean for the future of politics and civil society in Georgia.

Download FPC Briefing: The Resignation of Bidzina Ivanishvili (380 kilobyte PDF)


> Ethnic Tension Simmers in the Czech Republic

By Tanweer Ali.

The small town of Ceske Budejovice (Budweis in German) in the south of the Czech Republic is perhaps best known as the home of the Budweiser beer brand, or rather the two rival brands enmeshed in protracted legal disputes in dozens of countries. But this summer it was a series of ugly neo-Nazi parades in Ceske Budejovice that made the domestic news headlines.

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> Fundamental freedoms under attack in the run-up to Azerbaijan's presidential election

By Rebecca Vincent.

In Azerbaijan, the fundamental freedoms of expression, assembly, and association have been under attack for years, as set out in a number of previous articles. But in the months leading up to the country's 9th October presidential election, the Azerbaijani authorities have been engaged in a particularly vicious crackdown on citizens' exercise of these rights, in an apparent campaign to silence all forms of criticism and dissent.

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> Is Armenia Turning East?

By Mikayel Zolyan.

When on September 3rd 2013 Serzh Sargsyan, after meeting Russian president Vladimir Putin in Moscow, announced that Armenia has asked to join the Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, this came as a surprise. It came as a surprise for both for Armenian public, and for Armenia's partners in the West, most of all for EU officials responsible for the block's eastern policy. The reason: Armenia had already completed the negotiations regarding the Association Agreement with EU (including DCFTA) and was supposed to pre-sign the agreement in November. It has been made clear to Armenian authorities that membership in the Customs Union would be incompatible with the association process and especially with the DCFTA provisions. Armenian authorities seemed to understand that point and continued to claim their willingness to advance relations with Europe. As for the Customs Union, Armenian officials of various levels repeated numerous times that the country had no intention of joining, and moreover, that this was impossible given absence of a common border between Armenia and the countries of the Customs Union.

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> FPC Briefing: Understanding the conditions necessary for fruitful negotiations in Afghanistan

By Gilberto Algar-Faria.

In this FPC briefing Gilberto Algar-Faria examines what conditions might lead to effective peace negotiations in Afghanistan. He explores the motivations of different stakeholders, examines the role of 'spoilers' and looks at comparisons with the resolution of other armed conflicts.

Download Understanding the conditions for negotiations in Afghanistan (390 kilobyte PDF)


> Putin's Caucasus Surprise: A Portent of Worse to Come?

By Dr Kevork Oskanian.

The European Union's eastward expansion and its soft-power influence on the states of the former Soviet Union has been a major feature of the continent's political environment since the fall of the Iron Curtain. The conditionalities of the Copenhagen criteria have arguably led to the accelerated democratisation of new members from the Baltics to Bulgaria; further to the East, the European Neighbourhood Policy's regional incarnation, the Eastern Partnership, has also provided the more 'problematic' states of the former Soviet Union with incentives to modernize and democratise. The promise of Association Agreements including membership of a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) with by far the world's largest economic bloc seemed to open the way towards diversification and greater prosperity, in what was - and still is - seen as a positive-sum game in both Brussels and the relevant former Soviet capitals.

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> FPC Briefing: What differences will the Fourth Package of Reforms make for Turkey in international judicial co-operation

By Andrew Southam.

FPC Research Associate Andrew Southam examines the recent record of Turkey in relation to international judicial cooperation. He looks at the development of domestic legislation and practices and how they impact on working with other nations on issues including extradition, terrorism and money laundering.

Download Turkey and international judicial co-operation (310 kilobyte PDF)


> FPC Briefing: Assessing Russia's role in Central Asia

By Craig Oliphant.

FPC Senior Research Associate Craig Oliphant assesses the key strategic policies, challenges and opportunities for Russia in relation to Central Asia. It explores the development of Russian led regional institutions and Russia's continuing role as the leading security actor in the region, while assessing the impact of China's increasing economic engagement in Central Asia.

Download FPC Briefing: Assessing Russia's role in Central Asia (380 kilobyte PDF)


> FPC Briefing: The vote was not British isolationism. It was about the legitimacy of international action.

By Prof Jason Ralph.

In this FPC Briefing our Senior Research Associate Prof. Jason Ralph sets out his analysis of the recent House Commons vote against UK participation in Syria. He argues that Labour's insistence that UN processes should play a crucial role in formulating the international response helps UK foreign policy move on from the problems of Iraq.

Download FPC Briefing: The vote was not British isolationism. (360 kilobyte PDF)


> Egypt 2013: What can you tell?

By Fadi Elhusseini.

Genuine democracy requires practice and partnership, and cannot be realized aloof from people. Mobilizing crowds to replace the ballot box is very dangerous as the lust for power and authority can be cast in popular demands, and gain pro forma legitimacy. In order to put forward a truthful analysis, one should call a spade a spade.

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> FPC Briefing: Two-state solution still indispensable and achievable

By Dr Toby Greene.

Even whilst the US engages in intensive efforts to revive final status negotiations, lack of progress in recent years and apparent gaps between Israeli and Palestinian leaders are causing some to claim that the window is closing on a two state solution. In this briefing Dr Toby Greene makes the case that there is no alternative one state 'solution' to the Israeli Palestinian conflict, and that whilst adverse trends are making a two-state agreement harder to achieve, none of these are fatal to it. Although scepticism abounds, the briefing points out that majorities on both sides still favour in principle a two-state solution, and looks at ways in which third parties can support the process.

Download FPC Briefing: Two-state solution still indispensable (400 kilobyte PDF)


> FCO in focus

By Adam Hug. Source: The House Magazine

The FCO originally seemed destined to be a relative backwater for the Coalition – despite the presence of a Conservative Big Beast in William Hague – with Government priorities clearly focused on the economy and the domestic agenda. To that end, greater impetus has been given to the FCO's role in supporting British trade promotion efforts. While never far from the minds of any British government, initial scruples around repeating the old 'batting for Britain' approach were soon put on the back burner with the Africa Minister turning up early on in Sudan with a trade delegation despite ICC indictments and the similar slightly awkward appearance of David Cameron in post-Arab Spring Cairo with business people in tow.

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> FPC Briefing: Putin's Eurasian Union- from pre-electoral sideshow to quest for empire?

By Dr Kevork Oskanian.

In this FPC Briefing Dr Kevork Oskanian examines President Putin's proposed Eurasian Union, looking both at Russia's objectives and how the project is viewed in the countries across the former Soviet Union. It looks at how such a proposal competes with the EU's Eastern Partnership and creates potential problems for WTO membership.

Download FPC Briefing: Putin's Eurasian Union- sideshow to empire? (450 kilobyte PDF)


> FPC Briefing: BASIC positions-Major emerging economies in the UN climate change negotiations

By Stephen Minas.

FPC Research Associate Stephen Minas examines the positions taken by the so-called BASIC group (Brazil, South Africa, India and China) of emerging economies in UN global climate change negotiations. The report explores their priorities and the relationships with both developing and developed countries, looking at their cooperation so far and what challenges lie ahead.

Download FPC Briefing: BASIC positions (250 kilobyte PDF)


> The opposition aims to capitalise on popular dissatisfaction towards Dilma while the government seeks Lula's help

By Thiago de Aragao.

The wave of demonstrations that are currently sweeping Brazil saw yet more developments on Wednesday. Not only did protesters return to the streets (especially in São Paulo) but the protests seem to be intensifying. While these demonstrations are not linked to a particular party - indeed, participants who are protesting against government inadequacies are rejecting being linked to any party at all - political developments are inevitable. Especially from the opposition who have planned actions to play on the dissatisfaction expressed in the streets against President Dilma Rousseff.

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> FPC Briefing: Protests in Turkey and the discontents of a flawed model

By Prof. Mehmet Ugur.

Mehmet Ugur, Professor of Economics and Institutions at the University of Greenwich, examines some of the major issues around the Summer 2013 protests in Istanbul, looking at the historical and economic background as well as some of the major human rights issues that fuel the protests.

Download FPC Briefing: Protests in Turkey and the discontents (330 kilobyte PDF)


> A Prime Minister for Peace and the Unity of Palestine?

By Stephen Royle.

On Sunday June 2nd Professor Rami Hamdallah was tasked by President Mahmoud Abbas to form a new Palestinian government. Amongst the myriad of newspaper reports that emerged the following day were accusations that this relatively unknown figure was a non-entity, lacks political experience or was simply a scholar. However, the dismissive nature of these comments not only proved a distinct lack of knowledge regarding the environment in which Hamdallah has honed his leadership qualities, but they also misunderstood the nature of the appointment. This piece will therefore provide a more detailed political narrative regarding Hamdallah's experience while addressing the potential role that the new PM will undertake and the many challenges that will confront him in the coming months. In doing so, reasons will be presented as to why it is important for the international community to confirm their support, particularly at this current juncture when unity talks between the domestic parties, peace negotiations with Israel and financial difficulties enhanced by a burgeoning debt, pose considerable stresses to an already unstable situation.

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> From Mountain People to Partner?

By James Denselow.

Speaking at a recent Chatham House event former US Secretary of State Madeline Albright was asked her predictions for the Middle East. Ignoring the continued flux of both the Arab Spring the bloody civil war in Syria Albright responded that the modern relationship between Turkey and the Kurds is evidence of how "things you think will never change – change".

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> FPC Briefing: North Korea wants peace, and it should be given peace

By Gilberto Algar-Faria.

Gilberto Algar-Faria from SPAIS at the University of Bristol explores North Korea's nuclear and military posture and suggests that the US and wider international community should consider a change of approach towards the country.

Download FPC Briefing: North Korea wants peace (370 kilobyte PDF)


> The UK needs to show leadership on transparency of international development aid

By Dr David Hall-Matthews.

From hosting the G8 to leading on the Open Government Partnership, this continues to be a landmark year for the UK leadership on the world stage. Prime Minister David Cameron has been clear that the common thread running through all these international development events centres on transparency, openness and accountability.

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> FPC Briefing: The Middle Eastern 'Great Game'

By Dr Simon Mabon.

In this FPC Briefing Dr Simon Mabon explores the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran that has manifested itself in proxy competition in Iraq, Lebanon, Bahrain and Syria. It suggests that while sectarian issues shape the rivalry it is important to consider other factors, namely a legacy of Arab – Persian tensions and geopolitical considerations to fully understand the nature of the rivalry and how this fuels across the Middle East.

Download FPC Briefing: The Middle Eastern 'Great Game' (440 kilobyte PDF)


> Turkey- No laughing Matter

By Firdevs Robinson.

The Turks are not normally known for their caustic satire or their ability to laugh at themselves. Irony is one of the most difficult words to express in Turkish. But curiously, political satire has a long and proud history in Turkey's less than pluralistic media. In a country rocked by military take-overs and periods of authoritarian rule, satirical magazines have always symbolised resilience in the face of adversity. The best-selling publications in the 70's and 80's were the cartoon-magazines like Girgir with a circulation of up to 450,000, more than most national dailies. As the country yet again comes under the spotlight for attacking the right to freedom of expression with heavy-handed prosecutions of journalists, lawyers, even celebrity musicians such as the world renowned pianist Fazil Say, so, too, satirists sharpen their sense of humour.

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> FPC Briefing: Time to reappraise the sanctions/diplomacy imbalance?

By Tom Blass.

FPC Research Associate Tom Blass analyses the use of international sanctions and their humanitarian and political impact, examining if their current application is appropriate.

Download FPC Briefing: Time to reappraise sanctions? (340 kilobyte PDF)


> When the music dies: Azerbaijan one year after Eurovision

By Rebecca Vincent.

As an anticipated 125 million viewers tune in tonight (May 18th 2013) to watch the 2013 Eurovision Song Contest Final in Malmö, Sweden, it is worth considering how different this year's Eurovision experience has been from the 2012 contest held in Baku, Azerbaijan.

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> State Co-optation not Independent Control: The Slow Evisceration of Russia's Public Monitoring Commissions

By Dr Catherine Owen.

In 2008 then-President Dmitry Medvedev signed a law authorising the creation of Public Monitoring Commissions (PMCs) to perform spot-checks on Russian prisons and other detention centres in order to ensure prisoners are being treated fairly and in accordance with Russian law. Five years after their inception, there are 729 PMC members checking facilities and suggesting improvements in 79 of the 83 Russian regions. The term of office was extended from two to three years in 2010, and the selection process for the third convocation began this March: NGOs are putting members forward for selection into the commissions by the Public Chamber, and the new teams will begin their term in the autumn. However, the current teams have included large numbers of former prison workers and law enforcement officials in their membership – and they have been less critical of conditions than the first round. Human rights groups are worried that if this trend in membership continues into the third convocation, PMCs will become little more than window dressing for the Federal Penitentiary Service, serving only to legitimize the brutal treatment of prisoners.

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> UN reviews Azerbaijan's human rights record amidst unprecedented crackdown

By Rebecca Vincent.

This is an important week for Azerbaijan at the United Nations (UN) in Geneva. Today (30 April 2013), the country will undergo its second Periodic Review Universal Periodic Review (UPR) by the UN Human Rights Council, which examines the human rights records of all UN Member States. Then, on 3 May, Azerbaijan will be reviewed by the Committee on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights(CESCR) that examines countries' implementation of their obligations under the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights.

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> FPC Briefing: High Stakes Gambit- Regional Positions on the North Korea Nuclear Crisis

By Dr Chris Ogden .

As North Korea continues to flout international pressure, FPC Research Associate Dr Chris Ogden analyses the positions of the major regional powers – the US, Japan, China and Russia – on the current crisis.

Download FPC Briefing: High Stakes Gambit (520 kilobyte PDF)


> Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan: Between Russia and the West

By Dr Kevork Oskanian.

Since their independence, the three South Caucasian states have come to adopt widely divergent strategic responses to the complex structural realities underlying their region's security landscape. Following the 2003 Rose Revolution, Georgia became unequivocally pro-Western: the goals of EU and NATO integration were firmly inscribed in two National Security Concepts, adopted in 2006 and 2011, which were recently confirmed in a rare bi-partisan parliamentary resolution uniting the otherwise fractious supporters of President Saakashvili and Prime Minister Ivanishvili. Over the past ten years, Armenia's pro-Russian orientation has, if anything, deepened, with Moscow gaining control of Yerevan's strategic industries and extending its basing rights till 2044; the Sargsyan regime has nevertheless maintained some elements of a 'complementary' foreign policy, most importantly an active engagement with the European Union, and, to a lesser extent, NATO. Azerbaijan's oil reserves, meanwhile, have allowed it to continue what it calls a 'multi-vectoral' approach, combining positive relations with Western states (mostly in the field of energy) with generally friendly interactions with Moscow.

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> Looking forward to the German elections – a tale of three paradoxes

By Dr Ed Turner.

The 2013 German elections will be eagerly watched. Even if the battle between the Chancellor Angela Merkel of the ruling Christian Democrats and her Social Democratic opponent, former finance minister Peer Steinbrück, doesn't have quite the glamour of Sarkozy against Hollande, Germany's central role in the politics of the entire Eurozone makes the election incredibly important. However, radical change, and a leftward shift, is extremely unlikely, for the reasons this post sets out, and the Social Democrats, in particular, find themselves in a desperately difficult position.

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> FPC Briefing: Access to Finance in the occupied Palestinian Territories (oPt)- Overcoming a rigid framework

By Stephen Royle.

This briefing by Stephen Royle addresses growing concerns surrounding access to finance in the occupied Palestinian territories. Under occupation a rigid framework has been applied that has restricted development capabilities and therefore detached Palestinians living in Gaza and the West Bank from the formal financial sector.

Download Access to Finance in the occupied Palestinian Territories (350 kilobyte PDF)


> Hello, Revolution? Post-Election Protests in Armenia Challenge the Official Results of the Presidential Election

By Mikayel Zolyan.

Post-election protests are the rule rather than the exception, when it comes to elections in many post-Soviet countries. However, even for a place as turbulent as post-Soviet Caucasus, when a presidential candidate, who came second (according to official results), starts a hunger strike, this is something unusual. That is exactly what is happening in Armenia these days. Raffi Hovannisian, opposition leader, who received 36.7 % according to the official results of the February 18th elections, is continuing his hunger strike in Yerevan's central Liberty Square. While Hovannisian's result is already quite impressive compared to post-Soviet standards (incumbent Serzh Sargsyan received 58.6 %), opposition supporters claim that the election has been stolen and the real winner is Hovannisian. Hovannisian calls on Sargsyan, whom he refers to as 'former president', to leave the post and vows to fight for justice, whatever the price. Mass rallies in support of Hovannisian's claims started immediately on the day after the presidential elections on February 18 and continue to this day, albeit with less enthusiasm than in the beginning.

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> FPC Briefing: Results of Preliminary Analysis of February 18th 2013 Presidential Election in Armenia

By Zaven Kalayjian, Sassoon Kosian.

Policy Forum Armenia's Zaven Kalayjian and Sassoon Kosian present a statistical analysis of voting patterns in the Armenian Presidential Election held on February 18th 2013 that indicates serious irregularities took place , bringing the final result into question.

Download Analysis of February 2013 Presidential Election in Armenia (720 kilobyte PDF)


> FPC Conversation Piece: Labour's Next Foreign Policy. A Response.

By David Clark, Prof Jason Ralph, David Clark.

In this double-headed paper Jason Ralph examines the principles that might inform the kind of foreign policy that might be expected from a Labour government led by Ed Miliband. Ralph focuses on a Fabian Society paper, Labour's Next Foreign Policy by David Clark, to discuss the historical and theoretical context of Miliband's approach and to provide a framework for a wider discussion about Labour foreign policy. David Clark then provides a response to Ralph's analysis in this new format Foreign Policy Conversation Piece briefing paper. It aims to prompt further debate and reflection on the challenges and opportunities facing centre-left foreign policy makers.

Download FPC Conversation Piece: Labour's Next Foreign Policy (420 kilobyte PDF)


> The EEAS needs cooperation from member states

By Adam Hug. Source: Public Service Europe

When leaders first floated the idea of creating a single diplomatic service for the European Union - merging the roles of the member states' foreign affairs chief (the high representative for common foreign and security policy)with the European commissioner for external relations - they were not expecting the turbulent times we live in today. The eurozone crisis, disagreement among member states over the future of the European project and the rapid rise of competing centres of power in the BRICS – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa - and beyond have all somewhat taken the shine off the EU's international prestige.

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> FPC Briefing: Turkey's Pivotal Role in Energy Supply

By Zeynep Dereli.

In this briefing Zeynep Dereli sets out some of the key challenges facing Turkey as it looks to expand its role as a regional energy hub, including the complex relationship with the Kurdish Regional Government in northern Iraq and access to Caspian gas.

Download FPC Briefing: Turkey's Pivotal Role in Energy Supply (340 kilobyte PDF)


> FPC Briefing: A 'New Hope' as the 'Empire Strikes Back'- British Soft Power in 2013

By Dr Simon Mabon.

In this briefing Dr Simon Mabon explores the successes and limitations of British Soft-Power. He argues for UK soft-power to be supported by a more normative, values driven approach to foreign policy with particularly reference to the arms trade and the middle east peace process.

Download FPC Briefing: A 'New Hope' as the 'Empire Strikes Back' (340 kilobyte PDF)


> Votes on two key resolutions highlight PACE's mixed approach to human rights in Azerbaijan

By Rebecca Vincent.

The vote on 23 January 2013 by the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) on two key resolutions pertaining to the human rights situation in Azerbaijan marked the end of a significant era for the country. The honouring of obligations and commitments by Azerbaijan passed in a vote of 196 in favour and 13 against, and The follow-up to the issue of political prisoners in Azerbaijan failed to pass with a vote of 79 in favour and 125 against.

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> Is Obama the first Asian President of the USA?

By Murad Qureshi AM.

It is said that Bill Clinton was the first black president of the United States, such was his popularity amongst the black electorate. So by the same token, is Obama, in his second term, becoming the first Asian President of the US? With the overwhelmingly endorsement of Asian US citizens; his first trip to Asia already undertaken this term and his tilt of foreign policy towards the East, this may not be as strange as it first sounds.

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> Summary Report: The financial revolution in Africa-Mobile payments services in a new global age

By Josephine Osikena.

The Foreign Policy Centre (FPC) in partnership with the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office(FCO) and in association with the City of London Corporation and 'This is Africa', (the FT's bimonthly magazine), hosted a one day London conference (2012) focused on how best to regulate and expand the provision of mobile payment services across Africa and beyond.

This report distils the main ideas and experiences shared through a series of main plenary sessions and a range of working group discussions at the London conference. The report comprises of two central elements. The first provides guidelines and principles that could support the development of a framework outlining how effective regulation might be shaped. The second suggests potential implementation features which could explore how effective regulation might be implemented, scaled up and replicated.

Download Summary Report: The financial revolution in Africa (160 kilobyte PDF)


> FPC Briefing: The European Union and the Nobel Peace Prize: A Criteria-Based Assessment

By Jan Gaspers.

Jan Gaspers sets out an evaluation of the EU's Nobel Peace Prize win against the three key judging criteria the Nobel Committee are required to use. He argues that the EU meets these criteria more than most recent most recent recipients and looks to possible future developments.

Download FPC Briefing: The European Union and the Nobel Peace Prize (370 kilobyte PDF)


> Syria: End of Year Report Card

By James Denselow.

Earlier this week the Telegraph's Chief Foreign Correspondent surmised that "the disaster in Syria is getting steadily worse, and no one has any idea what to do about it". I would agree with the first part of his argument but would suggest that the internal dynamics in the country don't reflect a stalemate absent of ideas, but rather the continued erosion of the regime's sovereignty over the country.

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> FPC Briefing: Armenia's 2012 Parliamentary Election

By Hamazasp Danielyan, Anna Jenderejian.

In this FPC briefing Hamazasp Danielyan and Anna Jenderejian from Policy Forum Armenia set out some of the findings of their recent report into Armenia's 2012 parliamentary elections. They use statistical data to argue that while some improvements were made on polling day and on the issue of ballot stuffing, real concerns still exist over vote counting, paid and multiple voting and the use of the identities of those who have emigrated.

Download FPC Briefing: Armenia's 2012 Parliamentary Election (360 kilobyte PDF)


> FPC Briefing: China and India's Common Challenges En Route to Great Power

By Dr Chris Ogden .

FPC Research Associate Chris Ogden sets out some the major challenges China and India face as they develop great power status. He discusses the history both of the two countries and others who have achieved global dominance, examining how China and India's past experiences may shape their future behaviour.

Download FPC Briefing: China and India's Common Challenges (480 kilobyte PDF)


> New human rights campaign seeks to improve climate for artistic freedom of expression in Azerbaijan

By Rebecca Vincent.

Azerbaijan's repressive freedom of expression climate affects many sectors of society – the media community, non-governmental organisations, youth movements and political parties, among others. But a new human rights campaign, launched today (10 December 2012), seeks to address restrictions on the right to freedom of expression of Azerbaijan's artists – a population whose rights have so far received little attention.

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> Is the Presidential Council for Civil Society and Human Rights 'Democratic'? Implications for Russian Governance

By Dr Catherine Owen.

In Russia the Presidential Council for Civil Society and Human Rights is a remarkable institution. It is composed of public figures from the NGO community, the media and arts, academia and business, whose job is to inform the President on the state of human rights and civil society at home and abroad, assist him in the protection of rights and freedoms as set out in the Russian constitution, and prepare recommendations on how to develop the institutions of civil society and protect human rights. Although the Council has no legal powers and its members are not elected by the Russian people, the Council is widely seen as one of the most democratic institutions in the country. What is understood by 'democratic' in this context? Is it any more than a talking shop for career-minded social activists? What can recent developments in the Council tell us about emerging modes of governance in Russia?

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> FPC Briefing: Anitkabir – Battleground over the nation

By Dr Marc Herzog.

Dr Marc Herzog discusses the central role of Atatürk's mausoleum in Ankara- the Antikabir- as a symbol of Turkey's secular, nationalist heritage and state legitimation as well as a current site of protest by both Turkey's old republican elite and secular civil society.

Download FPC Briefing: Anit Kabir – Battleground over the nation (510 kilobyte PDF)


> FPC Briefing: Resource Curse and Peace Building- A Tale of Two Sudans

By Martha Molfetas.

In this FPC Briefing Martha Molfetas gives a detailed analysis of the current and historical tensions between Sudan and South Sudan, exploring the role of resources and the needs for long-term development and peace-building.

Download Resource Curse and Peace Building- A Tale of Two Sudans (590 kilobyte PDF)


> FPC Briefing: What happened to the 'Russian Spring'?

By Dr Catherine Owen.

This FPC briefing by Catherine Owen sets out some of the ways in which the Putin government has acted to stamp down on the protest movement that grew in the wake of the disputed Duma elections in 2011.

Download FPC Briefing: What happened to the 'Russian Spring'? (350 kilobyte PDF)


> At the Helm of a New Commonwealth Diplomatic Network: In the United Kingdom's Interest?

By Jan Gaspers.

When the Prime Ministers of the United Kingdom (UK) and Canada, David Cameron and Stephen Harper, met in September 2011 to sign a joint declaration for renewed bilateral engagement, expectations were low that the document's lofty words would ever translate into actual policies. Yet, in September 2012, the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) and the Canadian Department of Foreign Affairs endorsed an ambitious Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on diplomatic cooperation, which promotes the co-location of embassies, the joint provision of consular services, and common crisis response.

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> "Reform" and China's new leadership

By Dr Tim Summers.

Much of the commentary around China's new leadership, announced on 15 November, has asked what the transition means for "reform". This has involved attempts to categorise as "reformers" or "conservatives" those on the new Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC), the group of seven (previously nine) men at the top of China's political structures which has overall responsibility for strategy and policy.

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> Censorship, hacking and harassment: the Azerbaijan IGF experience

By Rebecca Vincent.

Last week (early November 2012) Azerbaijan was host to 1,600 representatives of governments, international bodies, private companies and NGOs who ventured to Baku for the 7th annual Internet Governance Forum (IGF). Although the authorities have experience handling large international events, such as the Eurovision Song Contest which took place in Baku in May this year, many wondered how they would approach an event where topics such as freedom of expression online would be discussed, given Azerbaijan's own poor track record on the topic. The answer? With some interference and a confused political approach.

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> FPC Briefing: Corruption Fighting Efforts in Africa Fail Because Root Causes Are Poorly Understood

By William Gumede.

William Gumede gives a historical account of the rise of corruption across Africa post-independence and outlines measures that can be taken to tackle the problem.

Download FPC Briefing: Corruption Fighting Efforts in Africa (320 kilobyte PDF)


> FPC Briefing: Bahrain – between Geopolitical and Humanitarian Concerns

By Dr Simon Mabon.

FPC Research Associate Dr Simon Mabon gives the background to the political unrest and human rights abuses that took place in Bahrain around the Arab Spring. The briefing sets out the geo-political competition between Saudi Arabia and Iran that forms the backdrop to recent events and critiques the UK government's relations with Bahrain.

Download Bahrain – between Geopolitical and Humanitarian Concerns (310 kilobyte PDF)


> FPC Briefing: Antigypsyism – A pernicious racist ideology spreading throughout Europe

By Tanweer Ali.

FPC Research Associate Tanweer Ali explains the current wave of racism directed at Roma communities across Europe and its historical context, making recommendations for a political response.

Download FPC Briefing: Antigypsyism (310 kilobyte PDF)


> FPC Briefing: Turkey's Juggling Act

By Firdevs Robinson.

FPC Senior Research Associate Firdevs Robinson gives her analysis of the difficulties Turkey is facing with Syrian instability and deteriorating relations with the EU.

Download FPC Briefing: Turkey's Juggling Act (230 kilobyte PDF)


> FPC Briefing: Iran's Economic Crisis-On the Verge of Change?

By Stephen Royle.

In a new FPC Briefing Lancaster University's Stephen Royle explains some of the main challenges, both historic and current, facing the banking sector in Iran that have helped to trigger recent unrest in the country.

Download FPC Briefing: Iran's Economic Crisis-On the Verge of Change? (300 kilobyte PDF)


> The EU and Nagorno-Karabakh conflict resolution

By Ulvi Pepinova.

Nagorno-Karabakh, a holy land, a historical heritage claimed by Azerbaijan and Armenia, two former Soviet republics who gained independence in 1991, has encountered a lengthy tug of war rather than a celebration of a peaceful coexistence. On going peace-making efforts for almost two decades under the auspices of the OSCE Minsk Group remain fruitless and scepticism over the performance of the geopolitical actors prevails.

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> FPC Briefing: Saudi Arabia, 'New Media' and UK Relations with the Kingdom

By Dr Simon Mabon.

Dr Simon Mabon from Lancaster University sets out the ways in which Saudi Arabia is using new anti-terrorism legislation to restrict freedom of speech and online activity. The briefing examines changing Saudi social attitudes to women's political participation, calls for greater accountability from the regime and the UK-Saudi economic and political relationship that has a chilling effect on London's willingness to speak out against Saudi human rights abuses.

Download FPC Briefing: Saudi Arabia, 'New Media' and UK Relations (590 kilobyte PDF)


> FPC Briefing: The Battle for Semdinli–An Analysis of Turkey's Latest Violence

By Alexander Jackson, Alexander Jackson.

FPC Research Associate Alex Jackson provides a detailed analysis of the recent conflict between the Turkish Government and the PKK, exploring the key dynamics behind recent events. Jackson's research is supported by a comprehensive database of recent attacks, casualties and other important information.

Download the article (530 kilobyte PDF)


> Turkey's Syria Conundrum

By Firdevs Robinson.

Turkey's Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu must be secretly dreaming of a world where past statements would vanish into thin air.

He had told Parliament in April that 'a new Middle East was emerging and Turkey would continue to be the master, the leader and the servant of this new Middle East' .

Barely four months later, on August the 20th with the number of Syrian refugees on its soil approaching one hundred thousand people, Mr Davutoglu declared that Syria is no longer a national or regional problem. He said 'It now poses a security risk to neighboring countries and the United Nations should intervene in accordance with its mission' .

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> Urbicide in Syria

By Deen Sharp, Deen Sharp.

Control of urban space is key to the survival of the state and its institutions. It is in urban space, in the Middle East, where the final acts of authoritarian leaders have been played out, for example, in Baghdad, Tripoli, Cairo and Sana'a. In Syria the suicide bombing that killed Dawoud Rajha the Minister of Defence and the brother-in-law of Assad, the deputy head of the armed forces Assef Shawkat, along with the entrance into the city of lightly armed opposition fighters in the Damascene districts of Midan and Qaboon, mark the final spatial shift of the Syrian conflict to Damascus, the seat of power.

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> FPC Briefing: Time for Georgia to become European

By Denis MacShane MP.

As Vladimir Putin broods in the Kremlin wondering what his next foreign policy moves should be, is Georgia on his mind? The small Black Sea and Caucasus state has always been a bother for Russia. With its 3,000 years of history and one of the oldest languages in the world, the heady mix of ski-able mountains and tropical coastal resorts, the mélange of nationalities – Georgian, Armenian, Azeri, Turkic, Abkhazian, Ossetian (the best conductor in England, the LSO 's Valery Gergiev, is Ossetian) with minority languages and religions in addition to one of the oldest orthodox churches in the world, Georgia is the most exotic of all the nations that once formed part of the Tsarist then Soviet imperium.

Download FPC Briefing: Time for Georgia to Become European (320 kilobyte PDF)


> Paraguay: With less than ten months until the Presidential elections, the country lives with political uncertainties

By Thiago de Aragao.

Paraguay's political history is marked by advances and setbacks and one of the longest dictatorships in the Americas, led by General Alfredo Stroessner. In 2008, the country elected the former Bishop Fernando Lugo, who promised agrarian reform and social improvement. With Lugo's impeachment, the country lives amid a political climate of uncertainty with less than ten months to go until the Presidential elections.

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> China's Economic Geography: Moving outside the Pearl River Delta

By Dr Tim Summers.

Rising costs in southern China's Pearl River Delta (PRD) have been posing a dilemma for businesses and investors with manufacturing and sourcing interests in southern China. One response has been to move inland, to provinces in central and western China (see FPC Briefing: Engaging with Inland China, Tim Summers, April 2011), another to shift production to places from Vietnam to Bangladesh and Indonesia, or even back to Arizona.

However, a wider look at southern China suggests that there may be other options closer to the PRD.

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> FPC Briefing: Challenges facing South Africa-China relations

By William Gumede.

FPC Senior Research Associate William Gumede sets out some his concerns around increasing Chinese control of key South African resources and advises diversifying its sources of investment from other emerging markets. May 2012.

Download FPC Briefing: Challenges facing South Africa-China relations (300 kilobyte PDF)


> Presentation from 'The financial revolution in Africa: Mobile payments services in a new global age' conference

Claire Alexandre, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation - presentation to 'The financial revolution in Africa: Mobile payments services in a new global age' conference.

Download Claire Alexandre, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (390 kilobyte PDF)


> Presentation from 'The financial revolution in Africa: Mobile payments services in a new global age' conference

Lucy Kinunda, Bank of Tanzania - presentation to 'The financial revolution in Africa: Mobile payments services in a new global age' conference.

Download Lucy Kinunda, Bank of Tanzania (790 kilobyte PDF)


> Presentation from 'The financial revolution in Africa: Mobile payments services in a new global age' conference

Prateek Shrivastava, Monitise - Presentation to 'The financial revolution in Africa: Mobile payments services in a new global age' conference.

Download Prateek Shrivastava, Monitise (1.13 megabyte PDF)


> Presentation from 'The financial revolution in Africa: Mobile payments services in a new global age' conference

Dominic Peachey, Flawless Money - Presentation to 'The financial revolution in Africa: Mobile payments services in a new global age' conference.

Download Dominic Peachey, Flawless Money (160 kilobyte PDF)


> Presentation from 'The financial revolution in Africa: Mobile payments services in a new global age' conference

Cicero Torteli, Freeddom - presentation to 'The financial revolution in Africa: Mobile payments services in a new global age' conference.

Download Cicero Torteli, Freeddom (220 kilobyte PDF)


> Presentation from 'The financial revolution in Africa: Mobile payments services in a new global age' conference

Christine Hougaard, Finmark Trust - Presentation to 'The financial revolution in Africa: Mobile payments services in a new global age' conference.

Download Christine Hougaard, Finmark Trust (200 kilobyte PDF)


> FPC Briefing: Cyprus: One step forward, two steps back

By Firdevs Robinson.

FPC Senior Research Associate Firdevs Robinson gives a detailed and wide ranging account of the current challenges facing the long-running attempts to resolve the division and separation of Cyprus. She argues that unrecognised Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) is loosing hope that meaningful progress will be made in the near future and that as the Republic of Cyprus (Greek Cyprus) moves towards holding the EU Presidency, Brussels is no longer seen by the TRNC as a positive actor. She also draws attention to the growing rifts between the TRNC and Turkey on cultural and political lines, while exploring the current phase of tensions between Greek Cyprus and Turkey.

Download FPC Briefing: Cyprus: One step forward, two steps back (330 kilobyte PDF)


> Turkey at the London Conference on Somalia

By Firdevs Robinson.

On 23rd February 2012, a major conference in London thrust Somalia back into the international spotlight.

For the past 21 years, Somalia has been one of the world's worst failed states with chronic famine, violence and piracy. The country has been without a functioning government for decades. Since 2006, parts of the country have been controlled by the militant Islamist group Al-Shabab, which pledged its allegiance to al-Qaeda in 2010. The European Union-backed military force, known as ANISOM, managed to push Al Shabab out of Mogadishu in recent months, considerably weakening the radical group but the al-Qaida sponsored al-Shabab militia still controls vast areas of Somalia. The largely ineffective Transitional Federal Government's mandate is coming to an end in August 2012 and the next six-months are seen as a critical period for Somalia. In fact, recovering from the regional crisis of various kinds, the whole of Horn of Africa will be facing a challenging year.

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> Brazil: Government, opposition and future

By Thiago de Aragao.

Governmental problems continue emerging from the allied base, and not from oppositional movements. This scenario can signal two trends. The first is that the opposition, as it stands, will not be a match for the government in 2014. The other is that the union of the governing coalition in 2014 will depend on a major commitment of Lula and Dilma. Let's examine these two trends.

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> UK development policy in an age of austerity

By Josephine Osikena. Source: This is Africa

In a 2011 article titled "The Lion Kings?" The Economist noted with surprise that more than half of the world's 10 fastest growing economies in the past decade were in Africa.

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> FPC Briefing: Turkey – Role Model or Regional Bully?

By Firdevs Robinson.

FPC Senior Research Associate gives her analysis of Turkey's role on the international stage and as a leading player in the evolving map of the Middle East. She notes Turkey's enhanced prestige but assesses the on going problems with Syria, France, Cyprus and the challenges it faces at home.

Download FPC Briefing: Turkey – Role Model or Regional Bully? (420 kilobyte PDF)


> Brazil - Presidential Message: Commitment to sustainable development

By Thiago de Aragao.

At the beginning of each legislative session in Brazil, at the opening of the Congress, the president should send a Message and plan of government to the parliament, explaining the country's situation and requesting necessary actions.

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> FPC Briefing: How do we create a future for the two-state solution?

By Toby Greene, Alan Johnson.

As part of the FPC's new Israel and Palestine after the Arab Spring essay series Dr Toby Green and Prof Alan Johnson from BICOM (Alan is also a longstanding FPC Senior Research Associate) give us their take on the current state of the conflict. They argue that attempts to reach a two state solution are at a crisis and Palestinian refusal to enter negotiations without pre-conditions was a key problem. They argue that the US had made a policy error in insisting on a full-settlement freeze from which it later climbed down and that the Palestinian decision to go unilaterally to the UN was an error. They argue regional change put pressure on the Fatah and Hamas to form a unity deal and the regime changes in neighbours have removed important alliances. They argue that the international community needs to work with the political reality on the ground, focus on bottom-up not top-down initiatives, set realistic expectations and look for incremental steps forward.

Download FPC Briefing: How do we create a future for two-states (430 kilobyte PDF)


> FPC Briefing: Israel, Palestine, and the "Urgency of Now"

By John Lyndon.

As part of the FPC's new Israel and Palestine after the Arab Spring essay series John Lyndon, Executive director of OneVoice Europe (a peace building NGO operating with communities in both Israel and Palestine) gives us his take on the state of the conflict. He argues that the Arab Spring risks the rise of new governments more hostile to Israel but that shifts to the right in Israeli policy have been 'insular' and 'troubling'. He argues that the last year has seen Israel and the international community disempower the moderate Palestinian leadership, through continued settlement building and the rejection of the statehood option, while the prisoner transfer agreement following the Shalit release strengthened Hamas. He believes support for the two state solution and hope for negotiations are at an all-time low but calls for an active response from civil-society.

Download FPC Briefing: Israel, Palestine, and the "Urgency of Now" (290 kilobyte PDF)


> FPC Briefing: Armenia's Economy since Independence

By Dr David Grigorian.

Dr David Grigorian, Senior Economist at the International Monetary Fund's Monetary and Capital Markets Department and a co-founder of Policy Forum Armenia, gives an in-depth analysis of Armenia's economic development from independence and to the present day. He argues that better governance is crucial to efforts to reform the economy, tackle public debt and improve long-term growth prospects.

Download FPC Briefing: Armenia's Economy since Independence (390 kilobyte PDF)


> FPC Briefing: Weathering the crazy seasons- Turkish foreign policy in the era of political climate change

By Dr Marc Herzog.

FPC Research Associate Marc Herzog explores the development of Turkey's Foreign Policy and its response to the Arab Spring, setting out the challenges faced and those still to come.

Download FPC Briefing: Weathering the crazy seasons (310 kilobyte PDF)


> FPC Briefing: Comrades in arms, or a marriage of convenience?

By Alexander Jackson, Alexander Jackson.

FPC Research Associate Alex Jackson gives us his analysis of the new alliance between billionaire businessman Bidzina Ivanishvili and Western-feted opposition leader Irakli Alasania, that has been shaking up Georgian politics in recent weeks.

Download FPC Briefing: Comrades in arms, or a marriage of convenience (320 kilobyte PDF)


> Necas in a bind: The Eurozone fiscal compact and the Czech Republic

By Tanweer Ali.

The Czech Prime Minister Petr Necas could have done without this month's fiscal compact. The size of his government's majority might give a misleading impression of stability, in a three-party coalition which is fractious and riven with rivalries; the strains became apparent not long after the government was formed in the summer of 2010. Moreover, the past few weeks have seen a spate of ministerial resignations amidst evidence of impropriety, and the government is badly trailing the opposition Social Democrats in the polls.

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> FPC Briefing: Russia Protests Parliamentary Elections- Winds of Change or Just a Lot of Hot Air?

By Dr Catherine Owen.

Russia specialist Catherine Owen gives the FPC her take on unfolding political events in Russia, following the December 4th Duma elections. She examines the voting problems and the response of both the ruling elite and nascent opposition.

Download the article (330 kilobyte PDF)


> John Bull's Britain: Paddling towards European isolation

By Adam Hug. Source: Huffington Post UK

The decision of the UK government at Thursday's summit actions to block Eurozone attempts to stabilize itself through EU structures has rightly been described as a potential watershed in the country's troubled relationship with Brussels. The implications of the Prime Minister's actions have been much chewed over in the media and by commentators (including myself) on Twitter over recent days. However there are a few things that need to be made clear in this maelstrom of a debate:

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> Elephant traps for policy-makers: A reflection on the Eurozone Crisis

By Chris Ostrowski.

Writing about the crisis in the Eurozone is an intriguing and difficult task. The thesis I defended on the Sovereign Debt Crisis in July 2011 now seems dated as in the last three months events have moved forward at twice the speed and the nature of the crisis has changed from being one of Sovereign Debt to one of more deep rooted economic instability. The entire episode has been beset by political confusion as laborious attempts to find a solution seem to be forever behind the curve.

Rather than adding yet more column inches to the debate with an article which states that: "the only solution is…" it might be useful to reflect on what has made it so difficult to find a solution to the crisis and establish some guiding principles in the context of international political problem solving.

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> Should Britain be spearheading a campaign to reform the UN?

By Adam Hug. Source: Politics First Magazine

As the coalition government (at least in its Conservative majority) on balance appears to show a greater preference than its predecessor for bilateral rather than multilateral approaches to international engagement, it is perhaps time for a brief re-appraisal of Britain's approach and objectives at the largest multilateral grouping of them all, the UN.

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> Lula's tumour upsets Brazilian politics

By Thiago de Aragao.

It is as yet not known what stage former president Lula's laryngeal tumor is at. However, the mere hypothesis that he is seriously ill is a strong blow to national politics.

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> The Brazilian government's problem is its own base; not the opposition

By Thiago de Aragao.

The Brazilian government has an expressive voting majority in National Congress. Nominally, there are 400 in the House and 62 in the Senate. However, this does not mean that life is easy in Parliament. Allied dissatisfaction and appetites make mobilization of this majority difficult and voting on some issues of interest to the Planalto Palace extremely expensive.

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> Turkey - The Kurdish problem and declining press freedom

By Firdevs Robinson. Source: Public Service Europe

As intractable conflicts go, Turkey's Kurdish problem has been a very costly one - both in human lives and the damage it has inflicted on country's political, economic and social development. More recently, with Kurdish insurgency opting for full-scale war and Turkey's leaders pledging "immense revenge" in return, this rapidly escalating crisis threatens to erode democratic gains. As well as being the most urgent and difficult issue for Turkey, the Kurdish conflict has been the biggest obstacle for further democratisation and reform. Yet, without fundamental reform, it will not go away.

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> An African grand free trade area?

By William Gumede. Source: BBC 'Focus on Africa' magazine

Africa's attempt to create a continent-wide free trade area may end in failure, like so many other previous regional developmental schemes, unless leaders do things differently.

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> Getting Britain's Pro-Europeans off the Floor and Fighting Back

By Adam Hug. Source: Huffington Post UK

It's difficult to think of a more tricky time to support Britain's continued active participation in the European Union. The EU's standing has rarely been lower in the minds of the UK public, with only 27 % of people believing our membership has been broadly beneficial for the country, with 60% disagreeing. Turmoil in the Eurozone has put a severe strain on the EU and the UK coalition government, divided over the issue, is content to sit on the side-lines and keep the EU off the domestic agenda, pleasing neither Conservative backbenchers nor pro-Europeans. Even some longstanding keepers of the flame for greater British involvement in the EU, such as Martin Kettle and Sir Stephen Wall seem to have thrown in the towel. So what is a pro-European to do?

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> FPC Briefing: Turkey - Domestic challenges that will dominate AK Party government's third term

By Ziya Meral.

One thing was certain about the June 2011 elections in Turkey: AKP would win. Yet speculation over whether or not it would earn a greater share of the vote was rife, as was the forecasting of how many votes the renewed leadership of the leading secular opposition party, CHP (Republican People's Party) would attract, or whether the MHP (Nationalist Movement Party) would make the 10% threshold to enter parliament, or how many MPs the Kurdish BDP (Peace and Democracy Party) would have.

Download Turkey - Domestic challenges… by Ziya Meral (300 kilobyte PDF)


> Lessons for Libya from Iraq and Afghanistan

By Gerard Russell. Source: Politics.co.uk

As Libya approaches a new dawn we must appreciate that some things will go wrong, but there is an advisory role for foreign powers to fulfil.

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> Dangerous Turkish Gamble on Cyprus and EU

By Ziya Meral.

A remarkable series of public declarations by Turkish officials last weeks are causing increasing concern over the future of Turkish-EU relations and possible solutions to the Cyprus problem.

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> FPC Briefing: Human Rights in the Czech Republic- Unfinished Business

By Tanweer Ali.

In a new FPC Briefing Tanweer Ali examines worrying trends in human rights standards in the Czech Republic.

Download FPC Briefing: Human Rights in the Czech Republic (220 kilobyte PDF)


> FPC Briefing: African political unity must be more selective: A blueprint for change

By William Gumede.

There cannot be any clearer illustration of the impotence of Africa's continental and regional institutions to find local solutions to the continent's problems, than their numbing inaction in the face of the wave of popular rebellions against dictators in North Africa sweeping across the continent.

Download FPC Briefing: African political unity must be more selective (130 kilobyte PDF)


> Back to the drawing board for the African Union

By William Gumede. Source: The Sunday Times (South Africa)

There cannot be any clearer illustration of the inability of Africa's continental and regional institutions to find local solutions to the continent's problems than their inaction in the face of the wave of popular rebellions against dictators in North Africa.

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> Brazil: Supreme Court may rule on profit of companies co-connected or controlled from abroad

By Thiago de Aragao.

Ruling on the Direct Unconstitutionality Action (ADI) # 2.588, which provides for the levying of IR (Inland Revenue) and CSLL (Social Contribution over Profit) applicable to profits obtained by companies controlled from or co-connected abroad will be on Brazil's Supreme Federal Court agenda this Thursday.

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> FPC Briefing: Where next for EU-US judicial co-operation?

By Andrew Southam.

FPC research associate Andrew Southam explores some of the key issues in US-EU judicial co-operation.

Download FPC Briefing: Where next for EU-US judicial co-operation? (330 kilobyte PDF)


> China's Flawed Drugs Policy

By Verity Robins, Verity Robins.

China has woken up to its drug problem, but it is failing woefully in trying to tackle it. Nestled between two major heroin-producing regions, the Golden Triangle (Burma, Thailand, Laos, Vietnam) and the Golden Crescent (Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran), China has long been a transit path for drugs headed toward the rest of the world. Along an ever-expanding network of routes that lead to China's international seaports, domestic heroin use is soaring. No longer just a transit country, it now has a sizable user population of its own. The rise in domestic heroin addiction has had disastrous social consequences, with an increase in Chinese drug cultivation and organised criminal activity, as well as a rise in intravenous drug use and a spiralling HIV/AIDS epidemic.

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> Brazil: Palocci's exit suggests new model

By Thiago de Aragao.

It may seem strange that a strong and popular government and one with an immense support base would sacrifice its most important minister due to allegations that don't even pertain to the government itself. Well, it really is very strange.

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> Inflation, growth and foreign exchange: Risks and problems

By Thiago de Aragao.

Amongst the risks and problems that surround the Brazilian situation, the top three are: inflation, growth and foreign exchange. Thiago de Aragao assesses each of these in a new article for the Foreign Policy Centre.

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> Brazil: Rousseff and her trip to China

By Thiago de Aragao.

There are those who wanted to discuss which would be most important for Brazilian foreign policy: a visit of Barack Obama to Brazil or a visit by Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff to China.

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> Brazil : A dehydrated opposition and one with no discourse

By Thiago de Aragao.

Last week in Brazil, a new party was created: the PSD. This is the 28th party to be registered at the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court. In the Brazilian Congress alone, the opposition (DEM and PPS) lost 14 representatives and one senator to this new party.

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> Alex Bigham: Test of strength as Hague finds his feet on the global stage

By Alex Bigham, Alex Bigham. Source: Yorkshire Post

From Nick Clegg to Ed Miliband, via David Davis and Ed Balls, Yorkshire's MPs could never be accused of being shrinking violets. But the Foreign Secretary and Richmond MP, William Hague, could do with a period of time out of the spotlight.

From the infamous pictures in a baseball cap, via his dealings with Lord Ashcroft, to the rumours about his private life, he has often struggled to manage his own image. Which perhaps makes it the more surprising that he has proven to be such an effective political survivor.

His time as Foreign Secretary has not been without controversy. Questions over Hague's authority have focussed on how the Government handled the initial period of the uprising in Libya.

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> FPC Briefing: Do we need to rethink UK-US extradition arrangements?

By Andrew Southam.

New FPC Research Associate Andrew Southam gives us his take on the controversial 2003 UK-US extradition treaty, whether criticism is valid and what can be done to improve the situation.

Download FPC Briefing: Do we need to rethink UK-US extradition (390 kilobyte PDF)


> FPC Briefing: Engaging with Inland China

By Dr Tim Summers.

Tim Summers explores recent economic transformation in China and makes the case for greater engagement with the countries less well-known regions beyond traditional investment markets.

Download Engaging with Inland China (290 kilobyte PDF)


> The African growth revolution? Mobile banking in a global age: Summary Report

The summary report and recommendations from the FPC and UK Foreign Office's 'The African growth revolution? Mobile banking in a global age' conference.

Download The African growth revolution? Summary Report (130 kilobyte PDF)


> The African growth revolution? Mobile banking in a global age- Funmi Omogbenigun presentation

Please click below for the presentation of Funmi Omogbenigun (General Manager, Corporate Communications, MTN Nigeria)to The African growth revolution? Mobile banking in a global age conference.

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> The African growth revolution? Mobile banking in a global age- Adela Klirova's presentation

Please click below for the presentation of Adela Klirova(Public Policy Executive, Emerging Markets, Vodafone Group External Affairs)to The African growth revolution? Mobile banking in a global age conference.

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> The African growth revolution? Mobile banking in a global age- Kwaku Ofosu-Adarkwa presentation

Please click below for the presentation of Kwaku Ofosu-Adarkwa (Chief Director (Permanent Secretary), Ministry of Communications, Ghana)to The African growth revolution? Mobile banking in a global age.

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> The African growth revolution? Mobile banking in a global age- Ireti Samuel-Ogbu and Tomasz Smilowicz presentation

Please click below for the presentation from Ireti Samuel-Ogbu (Managing Director, Cash Management, Africa, Citigroup) and Tomasz Smilowicz (Managing Director, Global Head of Mobile Solutions, Citi Global Transaction Services)to The African growth revolution? Mobile banking in a global age conference.

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> The African growth revolution? Mobile banking in a global age-The Challenges Replicating & Scaling Up Mobile Banking

Please click below for a presentation on The Challenges of Replicating and Scaling Up Mobile Banking Services from The African growth revolution? Mobile banking in a global age conference.

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> The African growth revolution? Mobile banking in a global age- Abdirashid Duale presentation

Please click below for the presentation of Abdirashid Duale(British Somali entrepreneur and CEO, Dahabshiil, one of Africa's largest money transfer agencies)to The African growth revolution? Mobile banking in a global age conference.

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> Ensuring Armenia meets its commitment to European values

By Adam Hug. Source: E! Sharp

Bright future? Europe has diverse incentives to deploy to help consolidate democracy in Yerevan.

Over the past few weeks, Armenia has experienced a level of political turbulence not seen since 2008, as large crowds gathered to commemorate the third anniversary of the March 1 post-election protests that were strongly suppressed by the Armenian government, a move fiercely condemned by the international community.

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> Europe must change its attitude in the Middle East

By Ziya Meral. Source: Public Service Europe

None of us really foresaw how quickly waves of change could alter the political landscape across the Middle East and North Africa – because most opinion makers were looking at the region through the lenses of security, Islamism, stability and migration. Yet, just like a good detective story, the clues of what was to happen were in front of us all the time.

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> Refocusing the Foreign Office

By Gerard Russell. Source: Total Politics

Every crisis should be an opportunity. The Libya crisis has been a bad one for William Hague so far; but maybe it can be the spur for what he has said he wants, which is re-focussing the Foreign Office on developing impact and influence abroad.

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> FPC Briefing: Africa Rising? Will the popular rebellions in North Africa go south of the Sahara?

By William Gumede.

FPC Senior Research Associate William Gumede gives a facinating take on the potential impact of North Africa's uprisings on countries south of the Sahara.

Download Africa Rising? (290 kilobyte PDF)


> Egypt, Obama, Bush and the 'freedom agenda'

By Stephen Minas. Source: ABC.net.ac

On January 25, Egyptians took to Tahrir Square to claim freedom from dictatorship. They were soon followed by former Bush administration officials and conservative commentators, who took to the opinion pages of America's journals of record to claim vindication.

Specifically, vindication for George W Bush's 'freedom agenda' of promoting the spread of democracy. And as the protests in Egypt grew ever larger, and the reign of President Hosni Mubarak looked increasingly doomed, the claims on behalf of the 'freedom agenda' became bolder.

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> FPC Briefing- Abyei: Beyond expediency, towards sustainable peace

By Tim Flatman.

Tim Flatman gives his take on the challenging situation in Sudan's Abyei region and makes the case for more robust US and UK engagement.

Download Abyei: Beyond expediency, towards sustainable peace (230 kilobyte PDF)


> Living in a Despot's Walled Garden

By Stephen Minas. Source: The Diplomat

'Egypt Leaves the Internet.' The statement from Internet monitoring firm Renesys was far from the most dramatic headline to emerge from the just-ended standoff between ousted Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and demonstrators demanding an end to his 30-year rule. Indeed, when considering the Mubarak government's systematic repression of its people—protesters attacked by plain-clothes thugs, detainees reportedly tortured, journalists harassed and arrested—an Internet blackout seems almost routine.

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> FPC Briefing: UK-Russia Relations- a Bad Case of Mutual Misunderstanding (s)

By Dr Andrew Monaghan.

FPC Senior Research Associate Andrew Monaghan gives his take on the historical and political challenges to be overcome by both the UK and Russia in order to improve their relationship.

Download UK-Russia Relations: a Bad Case of Mutual Misunderstandings (330 kilobyte PDF)


> Israel: The model for the future of Egypt

By Ziya Meral. Source: Channel 4 News Website

While President Mubarak and his faithful inner circle are pulling all of their usual tricks to maintain power, the international community is busy conceiving scenarios for the future of Egypt.

For some, the future looks bleak. Doomsday projections include an immediate Islamist takeover of the country which would result in Islamisation of the seemingly secular country structures, end of neutral relations with Israel, cooperation with the "war on terror" and issues regarding Palestine, stability in economic relations, and access to key transportation routes. The archetype, which the process in Egypt is likened to in these scenarios, is Iran.

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> Egyptians caught between pull of the West and Islamists

By Alex Bigham, Alex Bigham. Source: Yorkshire Post

International support for the protests in Egypt has come from some unlikely quarters. While you'd expect qualified endorsement from leaders in the west, one of the most repressive regimes in the world has been trying to claim the uprising as its own. The Iranian state media has said the protests were inspired by the 1979 revolution, as a protest against a western backed, secular despot.

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> FPC Briefing: Crossing the river – China in the international climate change negotiations

By Stephen Minas.

New FPC Research Associate Stephen Minas analyses the China's evolving approach to climate change negotiations from Copenhagen to Cancun and beyond.

Download FPC Briefing: Crossing the river – China and Climate Change (360 kilobyte PDF)


> Exploring Turkishness: The Issue of "Turkish" and "Türkiyeli"

By Prof Baskin Oran.

For the third paper in our Exploring Turkishness: Rights, Identity and the EU essay series, the Foreign Policy Centre is delighted to publish a new paper by leading Turkish academic and human rights campaigner, Professor Baskin Oran of Ankara University. In his new paper The Issue of "Turkish" and "Türkiyeli" he sets out his clear arguments for the creation of a new and inclusive identity that could cover all citizens of Turkey. (Translation provided by Deniz Ugur)

Download Exploring Turkishness: The Issue of Turkish and Türkiyeli (410 kilobyte PDF)


> Kazakhstan at a Crossroads: Kazakhstan and the world

By Dr Feng Zhang, Adam Hug.

This third paper in the Kazakhstan at a Crossroads series explores some of Kazakhstan's international relationships with the EU, Russia and China.

Download Kazakhstan at a Crossroads: Kazakhstan and the world (360 kilobyte PDF)


> Full and Equal?

By Adam Hug. Source: The Jerusalem Post

For too long, the challenges facing Israel's Arab citizens have been obscured for international observers by the all-too-pressing concerns of the conflict. But this is gradually changing due to recognition of the growing tensions between the country's Jewish and Arab communities. It is against this backdrop that the Foreign Policy Center has published its new report, "Full and Equal Citizens: How to deliver equality for Israel's Arab community," as part of our work on minority rights across the world. It makes a number of recommendations.

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> Exploring Turkishness: Laicite, Religion and Socio-Political Dissociative Personality Disorder in Turkey

By Ziya Meral.

In the second paper as part of our Exploring Turkishness: Rights, Identity and the EU Essay Series Ziya Miral examines the state's approach to regulating religion and its role in defining Turkish identity. He draws attention to the problems this causes for Turkey's minority communities, with a particular focus on its non-Muslim minorities, and argues for an equal conception of citizenship that respects ethnic and religious diversity.

Download Exploring Turkishness: Laicite, Religion & SPDPD in Turkey (200 kilobyte PDF)


> The New Georgian Constitution: Reading Saakashvili

By Alexander Jackson, Alexander Jackson.

It says much for Mikheil Saakashvili's reputation for unpredictability that a new constitution which deprives him of much of his power is being seen as a machination to hold on to that power.

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Download The New Georgian Constitution (PDF includes references) (300 kilobyte PDF)


> Banking on Africa conference: Chris West presentation

Presentation by Chris West, Director of the Shell Foundation to the FPC, Barclays and City of London Banking on Africa conference.

Download Banking on Africa conference: Chris West presentation (470 kilobyte PDF)


> Banking on Africa conference: Barclay O'Brien presentation

Barclay O'Brien, AYANI Consultants & Opportunity International.

Download Banking on Africa conference: Barclay O'Brien presentation (410 kilobyte PDF)


> Banking on Africa conference: Vanessa Erogbogbo presentation

Vanessa Erogbogbo, Independent Consultant.

Download Banking on Africa conference: Vanessa Erogbogbo presentation (210 kilobyte PDF)


> Banking on Africa conference: Mark Henstridge presentation

Mark Henstridge, Acting Executive Director, International Growth Centre.

Download Banking on Africa conference: Mark Henstridge presentation (530 kilobyte PDF)


> Responsibility to the poor: a matter of justice, not charity

By Rt Hon Douglas Alexander MP. Source: Guardian- Poverty Matters Blog

Clear, progressive principles must underpin the development community's handling of state fragility, poverty and inequality

Human history does not always advance at a steady and inevitable pace. Some years, whether 1789 or 2001, are recognised in retrospect as times when fundamental shifts in established orders were exposed.

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> Exploring Turkishness: Women and Minorities

By Zeynep Dereli.

The Foreign Policy Centre is delighted to publish the first in a new series of short papers as part of a new project, Exploring Turkishness: Rights, Identity and the EU. In this first paper Senior Research Associate Zeynep Dereli makes the case for a broader, more inclusive approach to the idea of citizenship of Turkey, addressing some of the challenges facing Turkish women and minority groups.

Download Exploring Turkishness: Women and Minorities (510 kilobyte PDF)


> FPC Briefing: Analysing Turkey's 2010 constitutional referendum

By Dr Marc Herzog.

Marc Herzog's new briefing gives a fascinating insight into the statistics behind Turkey's recent constitutional referendum and examines what the result means for Turkey's future.

Download FPC Briefing:Turkey's 2010 constitutional referendum (410 kilobyte PDF)


> Kazakhstan at a Crossroads: Governance, Corruption & International Investment

By Adam Hug.

In the second report in our three paper Kazakhstan at a Crossroads series supported by the Civil Activity Fund, Adam Hug explores some of Kazakhstan's recent economic problems and the challenges the country faces reforming its economic governance for the benefit of citizens and international investors alike. The report looks at issues including the politicisation of corruption, resource nationalism and internet restrictions. It argues that continued engagement with Kazakhstan must address fundamental governance concerns as well as short-term economic gains.

Download Kazakhstan at a Crossroads: Governance and Economy report (440 kilobyte PDF)


> FPC Briefing: The costs of believing you are not in the Game- Kyrgyzstan

By Hema Kotecha.

This FPC Briefing by Hema Kotecha explores some of the major challenges facing the Otunbaeva-led interim government and the international community in Kyrgyzstan after the April uprising and June's ethnic violence.

Download FPC Briefing: The costs of believing you are not in the Game (260 kilobyte PDF)


> Brazil: Review of the second week of the Presidential race

By Thiago de Aragao.

In the second week of the campaign you can see that the exchange of barbs between the candidates contesting the Brazilian Presidential Palace has increased.

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> The 300th British soldier and the UK's Afghan strategy

By Ella Rolfe, Ella Rolfe.

The death of the 300th British soldier in Afghanistan is, as David Cameron pointed out, no more or less tragic than the 299 who have died before him since 2001. It does, however, come at an interesting domestic political juncture for Britain's new government.

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> The silent crisis: Global water scarcity reshaping future foreign policy

By Dr David Tickner, Head of Freshwater Programmes, WWF-UK, Josephine Osikena.

Understandably, the world has become increasingly preoccupied with risk and insecurity. The uncertainties produced by global challenges such as financial crises, economic slowdowns, health pandemics, the international narcotics trade, terrorism and conflict and indeed the impact of climate change are just a few pressing examples causing concern. However, the earth's environmental resources are increasingly under enormous strain and nowhere is this stress more apparent than in the case of the earth's finite supplies of freshwater.

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> Brazil 2010: A profile of José Serra

By Thiago de Aragao.

In this new article, the FPC's Senior Research Associate based in Brazil, Thiago de Aragao, provides a profile of the key ideas of José Serra, one of the main candidates in this year's Presidential election.

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> Brazil 2010: A profile of Dilma Rousseff

By Cristiano Noronha, Thiago de Aragao.

In this new article, the FPC's Senior Research Associate based in Brazil, Thiago de Aragao, provides a profile of the key ideas of Dilma Rousseff, one of the main candidates in this year's Presidential election.

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> FPC Briefing: Towards an Arms Trade Treaty

By Luke Bailey.

In this new FPC Briefing, Luke Bailey explains that more than 740,000 people are killed as a result of armed violence every year. Many others are assaulted, forcibly displaced or otherwise left with lasting psychological and physical injuries. Through these and other consequences, armed violence generates an estimated 'global cost of insecurity' of US$400bn per annum. Supporters of an Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) seek to reduce the burden of armed violence through negotiating a global, legally binding instrument to regulate the trade in conventional arms.

Download Towards an Arms Trade Treaty by Luke Bailey (300 kilobyte PDF)


> FPC Briefing: Toward a Grander Turkish Energy Strategy

By Zeynep Dereli.

New Senior Research Associate Zeynep Dereli gives her take on how Turkey needs to reformulate its approach to energy to create an outward looking strategy where energy policy and foreign policy work together towards common economic and political goals.

Download FPC Briefing: Toward a Grander Turkish Energy Strategy (320 kilobyte PDF)


> FPC Briefing: India-China Relations and the Future of Af-Pak

By Dr Chris Ogden .

FPC Research Associate Chris Ogden explores the warming relations between India and China and how they can work together to face common challenges in their troublesome neighbours.

Download India-China Relations and the Future of Af-Pak (190 kilobyte PDF)


> FPC Briefing: Terroracracy

By Wahied Wahdat-Hagh, Tahirih Danesh.

FPC Senior Research Associate Tahirih Danesh and Wahied Wahdat-Hagh, Senior Fellow at European Foundation for Democracy have produced a hard hitting and challenging briefing that explores the way in which the Iran regime's revolutionary character defines the way it operates both within and beyond its borders.

Download FPC Briefing: Terroracracy (220 kilobyte PDF)


> FPC Briefing: Brown, Cameron or Clegg: who would secure British influence in Europe?

By Alexandra Pardal.

As the UK prepares for the second leaders debate of the election, focusing on foreign policy, a new FPC Briefing by Alexandra Pardal explores the UK Party Leaders positions and what a win for them on May 6th would do to the UK's influence in Europe.

Download FPC Briefing: Who would secure British influence in Europe? (160 kilobyte PDF)


> FPC Briefing:The struggle to solve Europe's economic woes: are Europe's leaders up to the challenge?

By Alexandra Pardal, Alexandra Pardal .

This FPC briefing by our Senior Research Associate Alexandra Pardal explores some of the real challenges EU leaders face trying to kick start their economics after the global crisis and Greek turmoil through new plans to replace the last decade's Lisbon Strategy with a new 2020 vision.

Download FPC Briefing- The struggle to solve Europe's economic woes (270 kilobyte PDF)


> Speech by Mustafa Sarigül, leader of Turkey's Change Movement

The full text of a speech by Mustafa Sarigül, leader of Turkey's Change Movement, to the Foreign Policy Centre's A new politics for Turkey? Sarýgül's challenge to the Turkish political establishment event held at the UK Houses of Parliament on March 22nd 2010.

Download FPC Speech by Mustafa Sarýgül (350 kilobyte PDF)


> FPC Briefing: Global Shifts and China's Response – Is Beijing taking a new approach to global issues?

By Dr Tim Summers.

FPC Research Associate Tim Summers has written a new FPC Briefing that explores China's response to the shifting dynamics of global power and the implications of this for the rest of the international community.

Download FPC Briefing: Global Shifts and China's Response (170 kilobyte PDF)


> FPC Briefing: From foe to friend – The volte-face in Turkish-Russian relations over the last decade

By Dr Marc Herzog.

In the last decade, relations between Turkey and Russia have confidently surpassed their former cold-war hostility and undergone immense economic and geo-political improvement. FPC Research Associate Marc Herzog takes a look at the changing relationship between the old rivals and what it means for them and the wider world.

Download the article (220 kilobyte PDF)


> Joining the club

By Adam Hug. Source: BN (Business Network) Magazine

(First published in BN Magazine http://www.bnmagazine.co.uk )

Joining the EU can be a tricky business, even if you are not a large and Islamic country straddling the continent's old geographic divide. Brussels is at serious risk of getting mud on the red carpet it rolled out to welcome Iceland, the once fiercely independent banking black hole, into the club, as President Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson jeopardized the country's repayment deal with the UK and Netherlands over the collapse of the Icesave bank by putting it to a public vote in February. With the public less fearful of total economic collapse, the need to appease European member states seems less pressing, with polls showing that voters are likely to reject the deal and are not currently sold on joining the EU, if even if they are happy for negotiations to proceed.

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> The Chilean Second Round Elections

By Thiago de Aragao.

Sebastián Piñera, candidate for the Center-Right movement Alianza por Chile (Alliance for Chile), secured 44.03% of valid votes and will dispute the 2nd round against Eduardo Frei, representing the center-left coalition Concertación (Concertation), which obtained 29.62% of the presidential vote.

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> 2010 in Latin America

By Thiago de Aragao.

The year of 2010 could be a very agitated one in Latin America.

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> Kazakhstan at a Crossroads: Human Rights and Democracy

By Adam Hug.

2010 stands as a landmark year in the history of Kazakhstan and for the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). It will be the first time a Central Asian nation takes the leadership role of a major international political organisation, but also Kazakhstan will be the first non-democracy to become the OSCE's Chairman-in-Office. Kazakhstan will be under the international spotlight to an extent it has not seen since independence. Against that backdrop the Foreign Policy Centre is publishing a series of three detailed background papers assessing a number of key issues in Kazakhstan that will be followed by a pamphlet. The first paper, focusing on human rights and democracy, is now available to download.

Download Kazakhstan at a Crossroads: Human Rights and Democracy (390 kilobyte PDF)


> Where now for Afghan 'democracy'?

By Anna Owen.

A version of this article first appeared in Progress:

http://www.progressonline.org.uk/Magazine/article.asp?a=5001

Democracy has failed in Afghanistan. That statement can't make easy reading for Barack Obama, Gordon Brown or indeed anyone that believes in democracy. But has democracy failed irreparably and irreversibly in Afghanistan, or was it simply always the wrong solution? What are the reasons for the current political situation? And what are the implications of this for Afghanistan itself, for the region and for the international military, political and civilian strategies that are currently being pursued there?

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> Brazil aiming for a leading role in Copenhagen

By Thiago de Aragao.

Brazil, along with France, intends to leverage strong engagement from industrialized and developing countries in order to define bold agreements for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2020. Both countries want an 80% reduction in the emission of greenhouse gases compared to levels in 1990. They have also agreed to a reduction of at least 50% by 2050.

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> The significance of Venezuela's admission to Mercosur

By Thiago de Aragao.

The decision of the Senate Foreign Relations Commission to approve Venezuela's admission to Mercosur has brought the South American country very close to becoming a full member of the regional bloc. With the project having now passed through the Chamber, only Senate endorsement is required for Brazil to approve Venezuela's membership, which should take place this week. Venezuela's admission to the bloc has already been approved by the Argentine and Uruguayan Congresses. Paraguay is awaiting the Brazilian decision before voting on the membership protocol.

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> Pakistan's government plays second fiddle to the army

By Ella Rolfe, Ella Rolfe.

Recent curbs on civil liberties are attempts to grasp slipping control over population

While Pakistan may seem to be descending into a pitched battle between state and Taliban, the current power relations are much more nuanced than this. To be sure, the Pakistani authorities are engaged in a large military operation against the Taliban in the country's north-western tribal areas; but there is a power struggle within the Pakistani polity as well. And the army, not the civilian government, is firmly in charge of efforts against militancy.

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> FPC Briefing: India's BJP Contemplate their Future

By Dr Chris Ogden .

New FPC Research Associate Chris Ogden looks into the future of India's Hindu nationalist opposition party - the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP - Indian People's Party)- that faces a potentially uncertain and unstable future after its 2009 election defeat. Despite remaining as India's second largest political force, and indeed the country's only other national party besides Congress, the BJP faces a period of repackaging for India's electorate. Given that the BJP's current head, LK Advani who turns 82 on Sunday 8th November, and has announced his plans to step-down, any re-branding will be underscored by a phase of internal restructuring, most prominently involving the emergence of a new leader.

Download FPC Briefing: India's BJP Contemplate their Future (240 kilobyte PDF)


> Electoral Reform in Lebanon

By Deen Sharp, Deen Sharp.

In June 2009 Lebanon held its first 'free' election since 1972. On the conclusion of the elections Western media and political analysts were particularly guilty of premature celebrations and hyperbole, regarding the Western backed March 14 coalition election victory. These past elections were not a battle in which: "President Barack Obama defeated President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran"(1) or Western ideals of liberal democracy triumphed against Islamic totalitarianism. This confusion was immediately evident after the winning March 14 coalition soon began to fracture and Lebanon fell into all too familiar political paralysis. The reason for this misplaced euphoria by Western pundits was due to an essential misunderstanding about the battle being fought on the Lebanese political playing field. These elections were largely void of political ideology and were centered on the fight to represent certain sectarian groups, especially so for the Christian population, and the protection of patrimonial networks.

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> Turkey, Syria's new best friend

Source: Guardian Comment is Free

To view original article visit Comment is Free

Just over a decade ago, Turkey's army gathered on its southern border in anticipation of a war with Syria that was narrowly avoided. Just over a fortnight ago, the two neighbours signed accords allowing for visa-free passage between the two states. Syria's president, Bashar al-Assad, now describes Turkey as Syria's best friend, while Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey's prime minister, publicly calls Syrians his brothers.

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> Tension in Honduras seizes the week in Latin America

By Thiago de Aragao.

Predictably enough, the current situation in Honduras has been the main source of news in Latin America during the last week. Manuel Zelaya's return has yet to be explained in full, clear detail, with Brazil taking an active role in the entire affair.

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> The choice of French fighter aircraft in Brazil and its impact on Latin America

By Thiago de Aragao.

The past week in Latin America has been pretty busy due to the repercussions of President Lula's comments during a visit by the French President, Nicolas Sarkozy. Besides being the guest of honour and besides the fact that it is the year of France in Brazil, Sarkozy came with two missions: the first one was simple and the second was relatively difficult. The simple mission was to carry out something that was already or partially agreed upon: the purchase of submarines and helicopters. The difficult mission would be to turn things around regarding the fighters Brazil intends to buy.

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> FPC Briefing: The PRC at 60 – A New Chapter for China?

By Dr Tim Summers.

New FPC Research Associate Tim Summers gives us his take on China's past, present and possible future as the People's Republic approaches its 60th Anniversary.

Download The PRC at 60– A New Chapter for China? (220 kilobyte PDF)


> The Foreign Policy Centre Submission for the United Nations Universal Periodic Review: Iran

By Adam Hug, Tahirih Danesh.

The Foreign Policy Centre made a submission to the UN UPR of Iran on the basis of its two most recent Iran publications 'From Cradle to Coffin: A Report on Child Executions in Iran' and 'A Revolution without Rights: Women, Kurds and Baha'is Searching For Equality in Iran'.

The FPC's information featured significantly in the UN Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights summary of stakeholder submissions. To see the UN OHCHR report visit:

http://lib.ohchr.org/HRBodies/UPR/Documents/Session7/IR/A_HRC_WG6_7_IRN_3_E.pdf

Download FPC UPR Submission on Iran (210 kilobyte PDF)


> Syria: a good European neighbour?

By Chris Phillips. Source: Guardian Comment Is Free

As Syria's international rehabilitation continues, Britain has called for "a new beginning" with the previously isolated Ba'athist regime. This would include bringing Syria into the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP).

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> Keeping Georgia on Europe's mind

By Adam Hug. Source: E!Sharp

The EU has the tools to nurture democracy in Tbilisi, argues Adam Hug, FPC Policy Director, in an article for E!Sharp: http://www.esharp.eu/Web-specials/Keeping-Georgia-on-Europe-s-mind

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> Greening the Games

By Alfie Stroud.

Half revered institution, half travelling circus, the Olympic Games is currently in transit between Beijing and London. The governments and societies hosting its consecutive incarnations could scarcely be more different, yet their finished products will be endlessly compared – and in more than the grandeur of their opening ceremonies.

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> Latin American Disturbances

By Thiago de Aragao.

Latin America is once again the scene of political disturbances after some months of relative stillness. The situation in Honduras, which has brought the idea of military coup d'état back to the continent, is yet to be clearly defined. Roberto Micheletti's non-recognised government has been very tough on the sanctions threats it has received.

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> Turkey's new Foreign Minister

By Dr Marc Herzog.

New FPC Associate Mark Herzog gives an FPC briefing on the influence of Turkey's new Foreign Minister, Professor Ahmet Davutoðlu. The briefing looks at his influence behind the scenes in developing a new perspective for Turkish foreign policy based on his idea of Strategic Depth. Herzog examines Turkey's increasingly active role in the Middle East in addition to the development of long standing ties to Central Asia that he believes will help rather than hinder Turkey's long-term relationship with the EU.

Download Turkey's new Foreign Minister (160 kilobyte PDF)


> From Bucharest to Belgrade: Mladic, human rights, and EU accession

By Alfie Stroud.

If it is true that Ratko Mladic has been happily pottering around the same cobbled Belgrade hills among which his erstwhile commander-in-chief, Radovan Karadzic, was found peddling alternative medicines last year, Serbia's hopes of quick accession to the EU have been dashed. That is, they will have been, as long as the enlarging EU retains the courage of its convictions and remains serious about its moral credentials.

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> Time to put Europe back on the map

By Adam Hug. Source: Public Servant

As the recession bites, the demands for more economic nationalism, protectionism and restrictions on immigration have grown in Europe, but the pro-European camp in the UK needs to find its voice again, writes Adam Hug for Public Servant.

(N.B this article was written in mid-June but published late July at http://www.publicservice.co.uk/feature_story.asp?id=12331)

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> A crisis is too good to waste

By Josephine Osikena. Source: This is Africa

Africa is feeling the full impact of the global economic slowdown. The downturn provides invaluable opportunities for the UK, especially in the context of the recent G20 summit, to drive action on three fronts - social protection, IMF reform and tax justice - that will benefit poor countries.

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> Can Syria end the Arab cold war?

By Chris Phillips. Source: Guardian Comment is Free

The gradual return of international diplomats to Damascus signals a thaw in Syria's intractable feud with Saudi Arabia

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> At the table or on the menu? Moscow's proposals for strategic reform

By Dr Andrew Monaghan, Dr Andrew Monaghan.

Andrew Monaghan argues that NATO should exgage constructively with Moscow's proposals for strategic reform

Download At the table or on the menu? (90 kilobyte PDF)


> NATO and energy security after the Strasbourg-Kehl Summit

By Andrew Monaghan.

FPC Global Fellow Andrew Monaghan argues that NATO should be wary of becoming too involved in European gas disputes.

Download NATO and energy security after Strasbourg (220 kilobyte PDF)


> The coup in Honduras points to a new scenario for Latin America

By Carlos Bellini, Daniel Lledo, Thiago de Aragao.

This article presents an evaluation of the State coup that occurred in Honduras last Sunday (27 June) and its possible internal consequences as well as a new scenario that is unfolding in Latin America.

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> Can Syria be internationally rehabilitated without negotiations with Israel?

Source: The Majalla

Until very recently, the political climate regarding Syria's relationships with Israel, US and the West improved considerably, and an agreement on the Golan Heights issue seemed likely. However, elections in Israel changed the whole rationale, and the main question now seems to be whether the West-Syria rapproachement is possible, without negotiations and the improvement of relations with Israel.

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> The Chinese invasion in Latin America

By Thiago de Aragao.

The economic growth that many countries in Latin America have gone through in the past few years has brought many positive aspects. Besides the obvious aspects, such as an improvement in the social condition, economic stability and planning capacity, among others, the economic expansion also brought new issues for which Latin-American countries should find a standpoint.

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> Will Netanyahu negotiate with Syria?

By Chris Phillips.

The recent meeting between Obama and Netanyahu focused on the several issues that shape the relationship between the US and Israel in the Middle East. One issue in particular, the peace talks between Israel and Syria, was left out of the press conference that followed the meeting between the two leaders, leaving plenty of space for speculation regarding the future of the talks.

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> The end of Asia's longest war

By Niall Ahern, Niall Ahern.

After 26 years and with over 70,000 deaths, the war between the Sri Lankan government and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam has ended. Footage of Velupillai Prabhakaran, the Tiger's dead leader across news channels and the internet has initiated street parties across the capital Colombo as some citizens, who have previously only known war, ponder the prospect of peace at last. In President Rajapaksa's victory speech to Parliament, he declared: 'Today we have been able to liberate the entire country from the clutches of terrorism. We have been able to defeat one of the most heinous terrorist groups in the world.' What President Rajapaksa says is true. The Tigers have been carrying out attacks over land and sea since the war began in 1983. In more recent years, suicide bombings have become a notorious feature of the Tigers' strategy. Over the course of the war, they successfully set up and ran a separate administration in the north and east of the island which we only got some glimpse of when the army liberated Kilinochchi earlier this year.

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> Obama: The first hundred days and a new stance with Latin America

By Thiago de Aragao.

Elected in the crowning of a historical moment, President Barack Obama took many positive steps during his first one hundred days of administration. With a high approval rate (more than 60%), Obama has managed to obtain more than conveying confidence to the American people. He is also trying to change the global feeling towards the United States. The USA and the rest of the world have shown significant signs of recovery from the economic crisis. This has certainly played a crucial role in assuring that Obama's charisma is still an efficient fuel for success in the countries and events to which the president is invited.

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> Invest in Iraq, if you dare

By Ranj Alaaldin. Source: Guardian Comment is Free

Iraq is hungry for investment. That was the message from the Invest Iraq conference in London last week, which brought together more than 250 British and international firms and more than 100 Iraq-based companies, plus officials from an array of ministries and provincial investment commissions.

The event was attended by Iraq's prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, and deputy prime minister Barham Salih as part of an official visit in which an agreement guaranteeing greater economic co-operation between the UK and Iraq was concluded.

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> Why Syria's bridge to Iran won't be on the table in any bargaining with the West.

By Chris Phillips. Source: www.majalla.com

After four years of isolation, Syria is back from the cold. Visitors from the US Congress and Western-aligned Arab states have all recently arrived in Damascus echoing President Obama's sentiment of engagement with the Ba'ath regime. Despite uncertainty surrounding the peace intentions of the new Israeli government, many in Washington hope Tel Aviv will soon resume peace talks with a seemingly compliant Damascus. By dangling the occupied Golan Heights as reward, it has been argued that President Bashar al-Asad can somehow be 'flipped' from his long-standing alliance with Iran, leading to a Sadat-esq realignment with the West. Yet such an assessment misunderstands the nature of the Iran-Syria relationship. With or without a peace with Israel, Damascus has no interest in forsaking Tehran.

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> Lebanon beyond sectarianism

By Chris Phillips. Source: The Guardian Comment is Free

As the battle lines are drawn for the Lebanese elections in June, reports suggest the surprising kingmakers could be Lebanon's Armenians. This small community of barely 150,000 look set to abandon its traditional neutrality and back the Hezbollah-led opposition. While this appears to be yet another example of the complex interconfessional horse trading that has characterised Lebanese politics for years, it could be a sign that the state is finally taking slow steps away from its long-standing sectarianism.

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> Fresh Insights Paper: Finding the way forward for Moldova and Transdniestra

By Alexander Jackson, Alexander Jackson.

As part of our continuing series of Fresh Insights papers that give younger writers the opportunity to publish, FPC Associate Alexander Jackson gives us his take on the ongoing challenges facing Moldova and Transdniestra.

Download Finding the way forward for Moldova and Transdniestra (640 kilobyte PDF)


> Politics and economy as individual actors

By Thiago de Aragao.

Politically speaking, the impact of the international economic crisis is expected to be extremely relative in Latin America. Contrary to what happens elsewhere in the world, here, political and economic issues are easily shifted apart.

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> Pakhtunkhwa

By Ella Rolfe, Ella Rolfe.

What are the ways in which a group can be made stateless? Is expulsion from the state only physical, geographical or legal; or can it be effected through more metaphorical means? A recent example from Pakistan illustrates the diverse ways in which statelessness can be approached, and the many stages along the road to total abandonment by the state.

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> Good work, but could be better… (the role of the European Ombudsman)

By Dick Leonard. Source: European Voice

In a welcome initiative to make his work more known, and more helpful, to European citizens, the European Ombudsman, P. Nikiforos Diamandouros, formally launched, on 13 March, a new inter-active website (www.ombudsman.europa.eu), which aims to present a comprehensive guide to potential complainants.

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> Freedom with Responsibility: The European Liberal Manifesto

By Jonathan Fryer.

As part of our continuing series platforming the views of propsective European Parliamentary Candidates from all major parties ahead of June's European Parliamentary Elections this month is the turn of the Liberal Democrats. Jonathan Fryer is a member of the ELDR's governing Council and Number 2 on the Liberal Democrats' London list for the European elections.


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> Doomed youth?

By Chris Phillips. Source: The Guardian Comment is Free

Nayla Tueni, the 26-year-old daughter of Gibran Tueni, the murdered Lebanese journalist and politician, has announced that she will follow him into politics by declaring her candidacy for the Lebanese elections in June. Having already emulated her father with a writing career at his an-Nahar newspaper, she now intends to address the issue of youth engagement by standing on a platform of putting, "young people's voices in parliament". However, the mountain of youth disenfranchisement in Lebanon and the wider Arab world is a huge one to climb. Despite Ms Tueni's laudable intentions, it will take more to surmount it than the election of one youthful MP.

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> Fresh doubts on Croatian membership

By Dick Leonard. Source: The European Voice

It looked plain sailing for the Croatian membership negotiations last autumn, when Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn announced that they should be completed during 2009, with membership following by 2011 at the latest. Since then the prospect has somewhat darkened.

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> Back to Basics - Deterrence and the IDF

By Christopher Jenkins.

An FPC 'Fresh Insights' paper

Download Back to Basics - Deterrence and the IDF (280 kilobyte PDF)


> Latin America and the initiatives to perpetuate power

By Thiago de Aragao.

Latin America is going through a moment of perpetuation of power, but this cannot by any means be seen as something new. We have had examples, such as Pinochet in Chile, Perón in Argentina and Bordaberry in Uruguay, among others. However, these dictators and "eternal presidents" lived in an era when democracy was not developed as it is today. Obviously we cannot consider some Latin-American countries as developed democracies, but we must recognize that they are more advanced that they were in previous years.

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> Time for a gesture to Ukraine

By Dick Leonard. Source: European Voice

The recently concluded (if it really is) gas dispute between Russia and Ukraine has done no good for the latter country's reputation. Unlike a year ago, when Russia was almost universally condemned, this time the response within the EU has been more nuanced, with both parties being seen as almost equally at fault.

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> Obama and the Middle East

By Rebecca Simon, Rebecca Simon.

This week Barak Obama will be inaugurated as President. Never before has the ceremony been anticipated with so much enthusiasm, hope and above all, expectation. He is charged with salvaging the US economy, restoring America's global reputation and improving the welfare and health of the nation. That his in-tray will be overflowing with domestic and international expectations is unquestionable. To add to this, recent events in Gaza, and the Middle East's re-emergence as a central international concern means that he will be under pressure to move the peace process to the top of the agenda.

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> When the dust settles in Gaza

By Adam Hug.

With an aerial bombardment, Israeli troops on the streets of Gaza, a humanitarian crisis and frustrated diplomats, the parallels between the current crisis and the events of summer 2006 are pretty clear. That history has repeated itself with added ferocity and loss of life is testament to the diplomatic and political failure to which Israel, the Palestinians, the US, EU and neighbouring states have all been party. The bitter cycle of rocket attacks and economic blockade set against a backdrop of warring factions and glacial progress towards a final status agreement gives little credit all round.

The pressure from within the Israeli Government for mission creep to achieve the complete obliteration of Hamas appears to be subsiding as Egyptian and French diplomacy begins to make some progress, the scale of the humanitarian crisis and its global political impact becomes clearer to the Israelis and the task of finding suitable Hamas targets becomes progressively more difficult. As hopes of a possible resolution begin to flicker into view, thoughts are turning to what must be done to prevent this happening again.

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> Britain and the Euro: Time to revisit the debate?

By Niall Ahern, Niall Ahern.

As we approach the end of 2008, it appears that the 'global credit crisis' may well continue to be a permanent feature in news headlines throughout 2009. The banking and credit crisis has proven that every country in the world is vulnerable to the effects of the downturn. The past year has been characterised by bank collapses, a sharp decline in house prices, credit drying up and unprecedented moves by governments to offer multi-billion dollar/pound bail-outs to banks and other businesses. As such, one is led to question whether there will be much to celebrate when the clock strikes midnight to see in the new year.

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> Higlights from Latin America in 2008

By Thiago de Aragao.

Economic and political highlights from Latin America in 2008, including obervations on the impact of the global economic crisis for regional economics, politics and geopolitics from FPC Senior Research Associate Thiago de Aragao.

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> More family-friendly policies needed if Europe is to avoid sharp population fall

By Dick Leonard. Source: European Voice

Wanted: 50 million immigrants by the middle of the Century, if the population of Europe is not to plunge dramatically, while virtually all the other areas of the world – apart from Russia and Japan – continue to grow apace.

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> A Revolution without Rights? Women, Kurds and Baha'is are searching for equality in Iran

By Stephen Twigg. Source: Progress (www.progressonline.org.uk)

To comment on this article, please visit the FPC Blog: http://foreignpolicycentre.blogspot.com

On 10 December 2008, the world celebrates the 60th anniversary of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights but sadly there will not be much celebration in Tehran. Cyrus the Great, the Persian emperor from 559-529 BCE, is widely credited with producing the first known human rights charter and defending the rights of minorities. Yet in modern Iran women and minorities continue to be treated as second-class citizens.

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> Obama and Iran: A Victory for an Enlightened Foreign Policy?

By Mariam Ghorbannejad.

To comment on this article, please visit the FPC Blog: http://foreignpolicycentre.blogspot.com

November 4th 2008 was by all accounts an historic day for the United States of America. Not only had the nation elected their first African-American president but they had done so by a landslide in the popular vote unseen since Democratic nominee Lyndon Johnson's win in 1964.

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> Obama faces the toughest challenges since FDR

By Adam Hug. Source: Public Servant

As the celebrations die down, and the ticker tape is cleared away, the political reality of Barak Obama's transition is becoming clearer. Pundits argue with some accuracy that President-elect Obama will enter office with a daunting in-tray, perhaps as tough a set of problems as any new leader has faced since FDR. Two unresolved wars, a financial crisis, an economic slump, an unstable trade deficit and large portions of US debt owned by China and other countries, not exactly top of the US's Christmas list, are just some of the challenges the new administration has to look forward to. However, he faces these challenges with a level of goodwill internationally that has no recent comparison.

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> Hutton and Afghanistan: To surge or not to surge?

By Anna Owen.

John Hutton chose Remembrance Day to deliver his maiden speech(1) as Defence Secretary, and as the subject, a conflict described only just over a year ago as Britain's 'forgotten war'(2): the conflict in Afghanistan. In an address titled 'Afghanistan – Worth the Sacrifice,' Mr Hutton asserted that the war may yet become the 'defining conflict of this century.'

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> Iceland – The 29th member state?

By Dick Leonard. Source: European Voice

Iceland's current financial crisis could lead it to take the plunge…

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> Turkey, Europe's future

By Adam Hug. Source: The Guardian Comment is Free

To comment on this article, please visit the FPC Blog: http://foreignpolicycentre.blogspot.com

Turkey's bid to join the EU offers Europe the choice of embracing its internal diversity or resorting to an insular idea of itself.

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> No longer the odd man out? Will Gordon Brown bind Britain more closely to Europe?

By Dick Leonard. Source: The European Voice

If any good comes out of the global financial crisis it could be to bind Britain more closely to the European Union. Gordon Brown's success in persuading fellow EU leaders to copy his radical measures to recapitalize banks and restore liquidity to the lending markets has enormously boosted his prestige and self-confidence both in Europe and in his own country.

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> ESDP – now or never?

By Dick Leonard. Source: The European Voice

It is ten years since the European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP) was launched, at an Anglo-French 'summit' at St. Malo, and there is now precious little to be shown for it. The French presidency of the EU is acutely aware of the failure of the policy, and is actively preparing a new European Security Strategy which will be presented for adoption at the December meeting of the European Council.

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> Reforming the EU Budget – time just left for some new ideas…

By Dick Leonard. Source: The European Voice

The long awaited review by the Commission of the EU budget, announced in 2005, when the financial perspectives were agreed for 2007-2013, began in June, after ideas submitted by interested organizations and members of the general public had been considered at a special conference at the end of May.

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> Mutual interests bring EU and India closer together

By Dick Leonard. Source: The European Voice

Just back from India after my first visit in seven years, I had two overwhelming impressions. One was the evidence, wherever I went, that the Indian economy has taken off in a big way and has developed unstoppable momentum.

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> The FRA gets down to work

By Dick Leonard. Source: The European Voice

The EU's fundamental rights agency has made a good start, but needs greater powers, writes Dick Leonard

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> The case for British adoption of the euro is stronger than ever

By Dick Leonard. Source: The European Voice

After ten years in which the British economy was outperforming that of the eurozone, according to most economic indicators, it now appears distinctly shaky. A recent report by the Lehman Brothers bank said that there was a 35 per cent probability of a full-blown recession over the next two years.

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> Colombia goes up; Argentina goes down; Venezuela stands still

By Thiago de Aragao.

Ingrid Betancourt's release was South America's greatest political event in July. Not only for the spectacular operation led by the Colombian army, but for all its symbolism. The battle fought between Colombia's government, led by President Álvaro Uribe, and the FARC came to a climax with Ingrid's release. Besides, as far as regional geopolitics is concerned, it came as a victory for the strategy Uribe has pursued since coming to office, against the veiled support given by Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez.

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> The need to be open-minded about Russia's approaches

By Pavel Miller.

The past year has seen more disputes between Russia and the West than at any other time since the collapse of the Soviet Union. From the Kosovo crisis to Iran's nuclear ambitions, it has been extremely difficult to achieve a consensus over the most pressing global challenges. In recent months, tension increased over NATO expansion into former Soviet territory, failure to agree on sanctions directed at Zimbabwe and U.S. plans for anti-missile defence bases in Eastern Europe. Despite disappointment over the failure of both sides to see eye-to-eye regarding these matters, the frustrations over Russia's apparent 'assertiveness' should not translate into a rejection of her role in global affairs. In order to overcome the disagreements, negotiation must prevail through comprehension of Russia's perspective, as opposed to the confrontational rhetoric and calls for punitive measures endorsed by Senator John McCain.

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> Sarkozy stumbles as the EU tries to find a way forward after Ireland

By Adam Hug. Source: Public Servant

The EU has spent the last month navel-gazing; trying to figure out a way out of the bind it has found itself in after the Irish no vote on the Lisbon 'Reform' Treaty, and pondering how to re-engage its citizenry.

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> THE HIGH DESTRUCTION POTENTIAL OF ARGENTINA'S CRISIS

By Thiago de Aragao.

Riding a rollercoaster, being afraid and knowing that everything will be fine in the end is rather exciting and generates some healthy adrenaline. Riding another rollercoaster, with loose tracks and poor infrastructure, and nevertheless managing to be safe in the end, is a priceless lesson for the future.

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> Santa Cruz de la Sierra legitimizes institutional crisis

By Thiago de Aragao.

Nobody should be surprised at the result of the referendum on autonomy held on Sunday, May 04, in the province of Santa Cruz de la Sierra, Bolivia. The highly anticipated "Yes" victory, to be confirmed by the end of the week when the vote's official results are due to be released, has led to reactions by Bolivia's central government and by the Santa Cruz government too, which did not expect a different result.

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> The difficulties Venezuela is bound to experience

By Thiago de Aragao.

Oil prices at $120 per barrel allow Hugo Chávez to do many things he would not normally be capable of. Venezuela, historically dependent on their greatest blessing, oil surpluses, has never developed other industries to help the country grow stronger, more developed and self-sufficient. Huge oil reserves have made the Venezuelan government and high society fond of imports.

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> Monthly Review - The Waters of March

By Thiago de Aragao.

This March was one of the most exciting months in the latest years as far as South America is concerned. The diplomatic row between Colombia and Ecuador, with a gratuitous cameo by Venezuela, was certainly the month's greatest event. The troop movements, the hard stance taken by Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez, and the apologies for invading Ecuadorian soil on the part of Colombian president Álvaro Uribe have left their mark in the continent's diplomacy this month.

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> A Diplomatic Crisis and the Players' Performance

By Thiago de Aragao.

Latin America came to a halt during recent weeks, to witness the crisis between Colombia and Ecuador, featuring an over-the-top intromission by Hugo Chávez's Venezuela.

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> Latin America: Events in January 2008

By Thiago de Aragao.

The month in Latin America – January 2008

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> Hugo Chavez's Venezuela

By Thiago de Aragao.

A special report from Thiago de Aragão on travelling in the entourage Of President Lula of Brazil to visit the unique Venezuela of President Hugo Chavez.

Download Hugo Chavez's Venezuela (60 kilobyte PDF)


> Latin America: Events in October

By Thiago de Aragao.

Beyond any doubt, the election of Cristina Kirchner in Argentina stood out as the most important political event last October.

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> Latin America: Events in September

By Thiago de Aragao.

September saw a series of political developments across the South American continent. No new events emerged, however, and instead progress was made on issues that had arisen in previous months.

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> About the Iraq Commission

In 2007 the Foreign Policy Centre, in conjunction with Channel 4, set up an independent, cross-party Commission tasked with producing a blueprint for Britain's future involvement in Iraq.

THE IRAQ COMMISSION REPORT CAN BE DOWNLOADED AT:

http://fpc.org.uk/publications/iraqcommissionreport

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> Hilary Benn Speech - How to make peace in the Middle East

Date: Monday 18 June

Time: 6pm

Venue: Grand Committee Room, House of Commons, SW1

The Foreign Policy Centre, the Fabian Society and the Young Fabians jointly held a debate on the prospects for Middle East peace in the House of Commons.

Hilary Benn MP, International Development Secretary,was among the speakers, alongside expert voices on the conflict and how to end it.

The event launched the new Fabian freethinking paper How Peace Broke Out in the Middle East: A short history of the future by Tony Klug. The paper is generating an extraordinary and positive response from a wide range of commentators, academics and government and civil society voices.

Download Hilary Benn Speech (40 kilobyte PDF)


> ENP: Georgia is top of the class

By Dick Leonard. Source: European Voice

Time to upgrade its action plan, argues Dick Leonard

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> Enlargement Problems

By Dick Leonard. Source: European Voice

No gridlock – so far. How the EU has adapted to enlargement.

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> Don't forget the citizen!

By Dick Leonard. Source: European Voice

Constitutional debate must not be monopolized by governments, argues Ecas

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> Decision time soon for Kosovo?

By Dick Leonard. Source: European Voice

Serb voters could speed or delay Ahtisaari plan

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> A new treaty with Russia?

By Dick Leonard. Source: European Voice

Don't rush into it, suggests Dick Leonard

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> A Very Sporting Coup

By Alex Bigham, Alex Bigham. Source: The Guardian's Comment is Free

After meeting on the rugby pitch for their annual match, Fiji's police and army found themselves on opposite sides of a coup d'etat.

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> Realism has beaten idealism

By Alex Bigham, Alex Bigham. Source: The Guardian Comment is Free

A new order is taking shape in the Middle East with Iran and Syria at its centre, but will human rights and democracy be the losers?

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> Turkey - Train wreck ahead?

By Dick Leonard. Source: European Voice

Anyone visiting Turkey after an interval of several years, as I did last week, cannot fail to be impressed by the visible evidence of the transformation of the Turkish economy. With its high annual growth rate (8 per cent in the past year), and its energetic, enterprising, and, above all, youthful workforce, it is catching up fast with the EU, and there can be little doubt that it will have overtaken the GDP per capita of several existing member states over the next decade.

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> The European Neighbourhood Policy – time for a revamp?

By Dick Leonard.

It is now nearly two years since the first action plans were approved under the European Neighbourhood Policy, and perhaps not too early to assess the results so far. The German presidency, which takes over in January, is anxious to raise the ENP's profile, and the Commission will be producing a report, with recommendations, next month.

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> The UN — Out of Africa and Into Asia?

By Richard Gowan. Source: The Globalist

As the United Nations prepares to replace its leader of the past ten years, Ghana's Kofi Annan, with Ban Ki Moon of South Korea, the organisation may be experiencing an eastward shift in more than just the Secretary General's office. As Richard Gowan notes, the UN's peacekeeping focus is already shifting from Africa to the Middle East.

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> A Special Relationship?

By Richard Gowan. Source: E-Sharp September-October 2006

Links between the EU and the UN have flourished under Kofi Annan. With his tenure about to expire, Richard Gowan looks at the implications for Europe of the search for his successor

Download A Special Relationship? (90 kilobyte PDF)


> Blair failed in Europe, will Brown do better?

By Dick Leonard.

Exit Tony Blair, enter Gordon Brown: good news or bad for the European Union?

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> Mexico Hereafter

By Thiago de Aragao.

After the elections of the July 2nd, the situation in Mexico gives the impression of being better, but it is just an impression.

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> A new EU approach to China?

By Dick Leonard.

This year's EU-China summit, scheduled for 8-9 September, in Helsinki, may well see a determined effort from the EU side to put the relationship on a new footing. Both trade commissioner Peter Mandelson, and his external relations colleague, Benita Waldner-Ferrero, have been conducting fundamental policy reviews which are likely to lead to a proposal to replace the 1985 agreement, which has hitherto governed relations between the two sides.

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> Baluchistan at the Crossroads

By Alex Bigham, Alex Bigham (Ed.).

Baluchistan Seminar Report

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> ALAN GARCIA, PRESIDENT OF PERU - How it happened and what it means

By Thiago de Aragao.

Date: Monday 3 July 2006

Alan Garcia's Background

The victory of the social democrat Alan Garcia in Peru is of no less concern for the South American community than the victory of the extreme-nationalist Ollanta Humala would have been. The reason for such concern, besides the ruinous government of Alan Garcia between 1985 and 1990 in Peru, is the image it presents to the world. In recent speeches, Garcia stated he would not hesitate to close the Congress if his projects were opposed.

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> France's Military Politics

By Richard Gowan. Source: The Globalist

26 June 2006

The run up to the 2007 elections in France are bound to be a bitter, hard-fought contest. Though France has no need for a mass conscription army, Richard Gowan writes that the military may become a central campaign issue. In fact, socialist candidate Ségolène Royal is recommending one in an effort to give the government a new option in dealing with civil unrest among its rebellious youth.

Whenever French youth take to the streets, as in March this year, it is not long before Anglo-Saxon commentators are citing "the legacy of 1789" and "the spirit of 1968."

These dates, they imply, demonstrate the anarchic underpinnings of France's politics. But recent Parisian political debate has echoed another tradition stretching back to the 18th century: the idea of the French citizen not as a revolutionary — but as a soldier.

Those who believe Europe has lost its taste for the armed forces may be surprised to see the run-up to next year's French presidential election take a distinctly martial turn.

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> Where to take the nuclear family

By Alex Bigham, Alex Bigham. Source: The Spectator

24th June 2006

Is there another Iran? One where people care about things other than turning yellowcake into uranium hexafluoride gas? One where the fashion accessories are not just nuclear worker's face masks or chadors? One where the price of watermelons is more keenly debated than the scale of the Holocaust?

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> Less is More

By Alex Bigham, Alex Bigham. Source: The Guardian Comment is Free

The United Nations needs to realise that it can't solve all the world's problems. There are better and more effective agencies to do the tasks of peace building and peace keeping.

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> Going face to face

By Alex Bigham, Alex Bigham. Source: The Guardian Comment is Free

In the hall of mirrors, Iran may quietly be welcoming Washington's offer of talks.

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> ECJ steadily enlarging citizens' rights

By Dick Leonard. Source: European Voice

When the European Constitutional treaty was effectively killed off by French and Dutch voters last year, it appeared to be a black day for the rights of EU citizens. Consigned to the rubbish bin were not only a whole raft of provisions designed to make the EU a more effective actor in the world, but also the Charter of Fundamental Rights which would have been incorporated into European law.

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> Bolivia: Morales' pledges will stall progress and co-operation in Latin America

By Thiago de Aragao.

South America's poorest country is back at the centre of attention in the region. Evo Morales' historic electoral victory has signaled the onset of a government that combines indigenous nationalism and a typically Latin American left-wing populism. Bolivia has always been tightly dependent on foreign investments to compensate for its managerial ineptitude and an inability to take advantage of its own natural resources. This has fostered an influx of foreign capital which has contributed significantly to the maintenance of the country, albeit in a precarious fashion.

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Download related table (20 kilobyte PDF)


> The West must recognise Latin America's new leaders

By James Royston. Source: Diplo Magazine

The West must recognise the legitimacy of Latin America's new generation of democratically elected leaders, despite their divergent politics.

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> Brazilian Political Scenarios: 21st May 2006

By Thiago de Aragao.

Recent events in Brazilian politics are analysed, and potential future scenarios are assessed.

Download the article (120 kilobyte PDF)


> Hard luck on Lithuania - Kept out on a technicality?

By Dick Leonard. Source: European Voice

On May 16 the European Commission and the European Central Bank will meet to consider the applications of Slovenia and Lithuania to join the Eurozone on 1 January 2007. The hot tip is that Slovenia will be accepted, but Lithuania will not.

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Download the article (40 kilobyte PDF)


> Brazilian Political Scenarios: 14th May 2006

By Thiago de Aragao.

Recent events in Brazilian politics are analysed, and potential future scenarios are assessed.

Download the article (140 kilobyte PDF)


> Brazilian Political Scenarios: 8th May 2006

By Thiago de Aragao.

Recent events in Brazilian politics are analysed, and potential future scenarios are assessed.

Download the article (120 kilobyte PDF)


> Brazilian Political Scenarios: 10th April 2006

By Thiago de Aragao.

Recent events in Brazilian politics are analysed, and potential future scenarios are assessed.

Download the article (710 kilobyte PDF)


> Brazilian Politics: 2nd April 2006

By Thiago de Aragao.

A review of the past week in Brazilian politics.

Download the article (170 kilobyte PDF)


> South American Political Reforms Table

By Thiago de Aragao.

Thiago de Aragao lays out the proposed reforms of nine South American states, and explains their characteristics.

Download the article (20 kilobyte PDF)


> Cyprus - a way out of the stalemate?

By Dick Leonard. Source: European Voice

A rare chink of light in the gloomy Cyprus situation is the agreement, just reached, between Tassos Papadopoulos, the President of the Republic of Cyprus, and his Turkish Cypriot counterpart, Mehmet Ali Talat to meet in Nicosia. Their talks will be confined to talks to discussing the fate of more than 2,000 Greek and Turkish Cypriots missing since the 1974 Greek Cypriot coup and the subsequent Turkish invasion.

Could this act as an ice-breaker to persuade both sides to resume meaningful negotiations on bringing an end to the division of the island? Hopes for this are not very high, and a new report by the International Crisis Group, entitled The Cyprus Stalemate: What Next? concludes that the short-term prospects of a constitutional settlement are not good.

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Download FPC - Cyprus (30 kilobyte PDF)


> Swiss ponder 'quarter-way house' to EU membership

By Dick Leonard. Source: European Voice

In June the Swiss government will be publishing a fundamental reappraisal of its relationship with the EU which could – but probably won't – lead to a reactivation of its membership application.

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> Iran's Media Battleground

By Philip Fiske De Gouveia. Source: The Guardian

Washington's plan to expand Farsi-language TV and radio broadcasts may fuel the media equivalent of an arms race

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> Democracy, Terrorism and the Middle East

By Chris Forster. Source: The Foreign Policy Centre

Can democracy stop terrorism? In George Bush's State of the Union address he reiterated his Administration's policy that Americans had to support democratic efforts in the Middle East as the best means to securing peace and defeating organisations such as al-Qaeda. Yet questions are already arising as to whether this is proving to be the most appropriate course of action.

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Download Democracy, Terrorism and the Middle East (20 kilobyte PDF)


> Wanted: An EU Human Rights agency which works

By Dick Leonard. Source: European Voice

In a recent meeting in Vienna with Austrian Chancellor Wolfgang Schüssel, Graham Watson, the leader of the Liberal and Democrat group (ALDE) in the European Parliament, set out three priority issues on which it hopes that progress will be made during the six-month Austrian presidency.

One of these was to ensure that the small Vienna-Based EU Monitoring Centre on Racism and Xenophobia (EUMC) should become a fully-fledged EU Fundamental Rights Agency. This had been agreed in principle at an EU summit in December 2003, but so far little has been done to bring it about.

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> Europe Isn't Working: how should it change?

By Chris Forster. Source: The Foreign Policy Centre

"Europe has broken down!" Our only hope seems either to call for repairs or ditch it by the side of the road and start walking. This is because some see the European Union as a complex machine. If regulations are pouring out of the European Parliament, if candidate countries are lining up to become members and if national governments are agreeing to budgets and treaties then it is running smoothly. When they are not it is broken and needs mending, or in some minds abandoning altogether.

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> The Reluctant European

By Chris Forster. Source: The Foreign Policy Centre

Take a straw poll in any European country about which country was the most reluctant member of the European Union and invariably you would have a haystack of opinion pitch-forked upon the United Kingdom. Self-interested Britons, under the leadership of that 'Machiavellian' Tony Blair, have been ruthless in compromising away their rebate, devilish in their rhetoric for a more competitive and prosperous Europe, and utterly exclusionist in their embracing of the former communist countries of Eastern Europe into the Union.

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> A new deal for Greenland and the EU?

By Dick Leonard. Source: European Voice

It is 21 years since Greenland, the only territory ever to vote to withdraw from the European Union, ceased to be part of the Union. Officially a region of Denmark (but with extensive powers of self-government), a hard-fought referendum in November 1983 resulted in a 52-48 per cent decision to pull out.

Since January 1985, relations with the EU have been regulated by an agreement reached between the Greenlandic and Danish governments and the EU. The island, whose land area is substantially greater than that of Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Spain combined, but whose population is a mere 56,000 (mostly Inuit), lost the right to receive help from the EU structural funds.

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> Two cheers (or perhaps only one) for Tony Blair

By Dick Leonard. Source: European Voice

Tony Blair showed much of his old negotiating skills at last week's EU summit when, at the third attempt, he finally produced compromise proposals on the financial perspectives for 2007-2013 which all his 24 fellow national leaders could live with. This was only after considerable prodding, notably from new German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Commission President José Manuel Barroso.

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> Corporation of London welcomes the FPC's Energy Security Programme

On September 15 2005, Stuart Fraser of the Corporation of London gave a welcoming address at the launch of the FPC's Energy Security Programme.

He commented:

Tonight, with the launch of Re-engineering the Home Front, I believe we are taking the first steps in the construction of an atlas which will show us the way to a secure and prosperous future.

Download the article (40 kilobyte PDF)


> How many Polish plumbers?

By Dick Leonard. Source: European Voice

How many 'Polish plumbers' have come to France and other EU15 countries, under-cutting the wages of native workers and boosting the unemployment figures? A great deal fewer than the public (and French and Dutch voters in particular) appear to believe, while the predicted massive increase of migrants from Eastern Europe, following EU enlargement in May 2004, has just not happened, according to a new report from the European Citizen Action Service (ECAS).

Written by Julianna Traser, and entitled Who's afraid of EU enlargement?, it reviews the situation a year after the entry of the eight countries concerned. Unfortunately, five of the EU15 states (Belgium, Italy, Luxembourg, Spain and Portugal) failed to provide any statistical information, so the survey is restricted to the remaining ten 'old' members and the eight new ones.

Cyprus and Malta are also excluded, as their citizens were granted unrestricted access to EU labour markets from Day One of their membership. The other eight new members were made subject to transitional measures, running at the maximum until 2011, which the EU15 countries were permitted to apply. Only Sweden chose not to do so.

The consequence is that four different labour market regimes are now being applied in Western Europe;

  • Restrictive, with would-be migrants being treated in the same way as non-EEA citizens (Belgium, Finland, Germany, Greece, France, Luxembourg and Spain).
  • Restrictive, with a quota system being applied (Austria, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal).
  • General labour access with limited welfare benefits (Ireland, UK).
  • No restrictions (Sweden).

The report does indeed show that the three countries applying no restrictions received more immigrants than the others, but the flow was much less than anticipated, was confined mostly to 'hard to fill' jobs, and there was no evidence that it led to any increase in unemployment. Furthermore, the much touted 'benefit tourists' notably failed to put in an appearance. Sweden, for example, which received some 21,800 workers up to the end of December 2004, paid out only a total of 18,000 in social assistance.

Although Ireland, which suffers from serious labour shortages, was the most popular target country, in relation to its own population, it was the United Kingdom which received the largest number of migrant workers. The official estimate was 175,000, or 0.4 per cent of the labour force, though research by a German-based think-tank suggests that the real figure is far lower – around 50,000.

Of the migrants to Britain, 82 per cent were aged 18-34, 60 per cent were male, and only 5 per cent of the registered workers had dependents in their charge. Large numbers of Polish and Czech electricians, plasterers, bricklayers and carpenters were recruited for the construction industry, which suffers from severe labour shortages.

The British National Health Service also took advantage of the opportunity to recruit highly qualified staff for posts it was finding difficult to fill. Dentists and anaesthetists were particularly welcome, a development which has caused fears of a 'brain drain', especially in Hungary and Poland.

Many fewer job-seekers came to France, which issued only 9,994 work permits to nationals of the new member states between May and December 2004. Nor was this surprising, as, for example, only 3 per cent of Poles claim to speak French, while 21 per cent speak English and 16 per cent German. Nevertheless, the high unemployment rate stoked fears which were unjustified by the facts on the ground. There are, undoubtedly, some Polish plumbers in France, but not very many of them.

Another reason why relatively few East Europeans have come to work in France is the formidable bureaucratic barriers which they face, and which only the most motivated or desperate try to surmount. Yet the main reason why the flows of migrants has been so much lower than expected, to the EU as a whole and not only to France, is the booming economies of the new member states, whose growth rate is twice that of the EU15.

This appears to be repeating the earlier experience of Spanish and Portuguese membership, when severe transitional measures were imposed, and were later found to be unnecessary as both Spain and Portugal experienced enhanced growth, largely helped by the structural programmes of the EU. Both these countries now import as much labour as they export.

Under the terms of the membership agreements, the Commission is due to report in 2006 on the effect, so far, of the transitional measures. This should not be regarded as a routine matter. It is essential it conducts in-depth research, with the full co-operation of all 25 governments, before producing its recommendations. The ECAS report is a valuable indicator, but its lack of resources and imperfect access to national statistics, must to some extent limit its validity.

The Commission must also make a major effort to publicise the results of its own study in order to counter the widespread misconceptions thrown up by the referendum campaigns in France and the Netherlands, which undoubtedly exist in other member states as well. Unfortunately, however, it will probably only be when countries like France and Germany have taken the necessary painful steps to remedy their unemployment problems that the scapegoating of Eastern European workers will come to an end.

  • Dick Leonard is the author of The Economist Guide to the European Union.


> Waiting for Europe, Wanting America

By Richard Gowan. Source: The Globalist, 24 October 2005

Plagued by image problems around the globe, the United States could use some good news. Such an image boost may be forthcoming from an unlikely place — the Balkans. Richard Gowan explains how Kosovars are still grateful for U.S. actions in the late 1990s — and how prudent U.S. policies are steering Kosovo and the rest of the Balkans in generally the right direction.

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> Twice I have backed Schröder: but no more

By Sarah Schaefer. Source: Sunday Telegraph

For me, Gerhard Schröder's election as Chancellor in 1998 will always be a treasured political memory. I was standing in a bar in Blackpool at the Labour Party conference - I was a political correspondent in those days - when my mobile phone rang. It was my father, calling from Berlin to give me the amazing news that, after 15 years of CDU government, the tide had finally turned. America had Clinton; Britain had Blair; and now Germany had Schröder.

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> Ideals and Identities: what Europe needs to make Europeans

By Chris Forster.

With Tony Blair in Brussels arguing that to save our ideals we must adapt them, what are the prospects for Europe to find principles common to all 450 million European citizens? The differences between the values of the Spanish and the Slovenians could be considered as stark as between the English and French. This is not to say we have nothing in common, but that our ideals form part of our identity. The results from the recent referendums in France and Holland have made it clear that there is currently no agreed vision of what it is to be 'European'. Yet there do exist fundamental ideals that we can all support, shedding hope on the future of a European identity.

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> Will Norway and Iceland finally make it into the EU?

By Dick Leonard. Source: European Voice

The right-centre coalition government in Norway seems destined for defeat in the general election to be held next Monday (12 September). The three-party coalition of Conservatives, Christian Democrats and Liberals, led by the Christian Democrat, Kjell Magne Bondevik, a Lutheran priest, is credited with a mere 26.7 per cent of the votes in the most recent opinion poll, published last week in Dagbladet, Norway's leading newspaper.

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> The Next Long March: China and the G8

By Seema Desai. Source: OpenDemocracy

China's membership of the G8 could be the emerging superpower's next step, but will it be enough to save the

body from irrelevance?

Download The Next Long March (40 kilobyte PDF)


> A New India-China Nexus: more than the sum of its parts

By Seema Desai. Source: The Foreign Policy Centre

China and India are frequently mentioned in the same sentence, but little of the frenzied analysis of their phenomenal growth dwells long on how improved relations between these two long hostile countries might add to this. The state visit to New Delhi this month by the Chinese Premier, Wen Jiabao, is probably one of the most significant diplomatic events of the decade so far for India; while in China it was billed as the most important landmark of the year. Yet the potential implications for the global economic and political system are greater still. Closer Sino-Indian economic cooperation would impact greatly on both the developed and developing worlds.

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> Which leader has the right vision for Europe?

By Dr Greg Austin. Source: The Scotsman, 17 June

In France, the race is on to determine who is to blame for the dramas over the "European project". Jacques Chirac is at Tony Blair's throat over the EU budget rebate to Britain, but he is also under fire at home on many fronts, and from all sides.

It is almost impossible now to talk of a single French vision of the European project, and Chirac is using his all-too- typical theatrics over Europe as a smokescreen for his dire domestic troubles.

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> Testing the Transatlantic Alliance

By Greg Austin. Source: The Globalist, 16 June

The EU plans to lift the arms ban imposed on China and the U.S. Congress has reacted in disbelief. The U.S. legislators are outraged at what they see as the willingness of European allies to provide arms to a country that U.S. forces would have to fight in the event of a China-Taiwan war. This article examines the tense relations between the transatlantic alliance.

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> The view from Europe

By Lucy Ahad. Source: Whitehall and Westminster World, 17 May

To our travel-savvy continental neighbours, Britain's train delays, eye-wateringly expensive fares, overcrowded motorways and inner city jams are like a trip back in time. But while the chaotic state of our transport network might seem an odd but touching eccentricity to visitors, to millions of UK commuters it's a daily source of misery, time-wasting – and puzzlement.

Quite why Britain, the world's fourth-largest economy, does not have a transport network to match is not readily explained in terms of geography. Britain doesn't face the same challenges of distance, climate and topography as other European countries like France or Scandinavia. Other things being equal, Britons have less distance to travel; yet still they spend significantly longer commuting to work every day than their European counterparts – 45 minutes each way on average, ten minutes more than the French and twice as much as Italians.

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> Russia's turn

By Jennifer Moll. Source: International Herald Tribune, 20 April

There is little doubt that Putin's government is in an unenviable position of having to find a way to reassert the authority of the weak and corrupt Russian state.

It does not follow, however, that Europe should stand back and watch as Putin centralizes power and damages the prospects for Russia's democratic and economic development. It is precisely because Russia is the West's "strategic partner" that we must take an active interest in its fate.

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> Take the technicolour view

By Andrew Small. Source: China Review, Spring 2005

When Yu Yongding made a few remarks about China's holdings of US government debt to a group of students in Shanghai, he could hardly have expected his talk to send the dollar tumbling in the international currency markets. 'It's incredible. I'm just an unimportant academic!' he laughed as I caught up with him at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) before his departure to Switzerland for the World Economic Forum.

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> More bullets for the buck: Can EU members get better value for their defence efforts?

By Dick Leonard. Source: European Voice

EU countries collectively spend almost 180 billion EUR per year on defence; more than half the US total of 330 billion EUR, and have many more men under arms. Yet it became apparent during the Kosovo War – if not long before – that the EU's actual capacity is a great deal less than half that of the US.

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> Europe and immigrant inclusion: from rhetoric to action

By By Professor Andrew Geddes, Jan Niessen. Source: The Sud-Deutsche Zeitung, 20 April 2005

Inward migration is often touted as the solution to Europe's skills shortage and growing pensions deficit. Many experts argue that, far from creating a social burden, the arrival of ambitious people eager to work, learn and further themselves injects desperately-needed youth and dynamism into Europe's ageing societies and sluggish economic growth. But another contribution to meeting Europe's genuine need for labour would be to improve the participation and employment rates of Europe's existing population, including those non-EU nationals who are already living in Europe with work permits, but who struggle to find work appropriate to their skills or potential.

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> FPC April 2005 update

The latest on FPC research, publications and events

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> Kofi Annan and the Real Need for UN Reform

By Greg Austin, Ken Berry. Source: 31 March 2005, The Globalist

Is the United Nations in any shape to face current global security challenges? Or has the gap between the West and the rest become too wide to realistically reflect the demands of a changing international order? Greg Austin and Ken Berry argue that the UN's High Level Panel on Reform falls far short of the full-scale reformation really needed.

UN Secretary General Kofi Annan has had his High Level Panel on UN Reform. And Jeff Sachs has issued his report on accelerating progress towards achievement of the Millennium Development Goals.

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> Five years on: the changing tide on Putin's Russia

By David Atkinson, Jennifer Moll. Source: FPC Analysis, April 2005

Five years after President Putin's accession to power, portraying Russia as a friend of the West, sharing values and a mutual commitment to democracy, is increasingly difficult to defend. As President Bush pointedly remarked at last month's summit with Putin in Bratislava: 'Democracies have certain things in common - a rule of law and protection of minorities, and a free press and a viable political opposition.' Putin's recent moves to reassert the power of the Kremlin and tamper with the independence of both media and judiciary suggest that none of the items on President Bush's list are now guaranteed in Russia. Added to the mounting evidence of Russia's continued meddling in the internal affairs of its neighbours - namely in the Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova – this has led to a perceptible hardening in international opinion. Last month, the Foreign Affairs Select Committee in the UK parliament called on the government to take a tougher stance on Russia's violations of human and democratic rights more generally, instead of confining censure to the ongoing problems in Chechnya.

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> Investing in India: Is the UK doing enough?

By Shairi Mathur. Source: 31 March 2005 India News in Europe

Post-liberalisation, the Indian economy has become an attractive destination for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). Potential foreign investors are lured by the size of the Indian market, low labour costs and an educated pool of management and technical personnel, stable legal system and finally, strategic location of India for expanding into Asian markets.

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> Papadopoulos stalls EU aid for Northern Cyprus

By Dick Leonard. Source: European Voice 18 march 2005

The EU heads of state and government, who meet again at their spring summit in Brussels next week, are extremely unlikely to hold a secret ballot to determine who is their least popular colleague. Yet if they did, there is little no doubt that Cyprus President Tassos Papadopoulos would be the universal choice.

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> The Right Levers For Putin

By Jennifer Moll. Source: Open Democracy 14 March 2005

If, as Mary Dejevsky has asserted in The West gets Putin wrong, Vladimir Putin is the best that the West can hope for in the current Russian political climate, it is from this knowledge that the West must press for positive changes in Russia.

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> The Missing Policy Link

By Lucy Ahad. Source: Whitehall & Westminster World March 2005

2005 has been officially declared the year of Africa. Tony Blair has stated and restated his determination to use the UK's double presidencies of the EU and of the G8, two of the international organisations with the most development clout, to push Africa's plight up the international agenda. He has signalled intent by charging a high-level Commission for Africa, on which he sits along with chancellor Gordon Brown, to come up with "fresh" thinking on how to solve the continent's many challenges.

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> Time to come clean on EU farm subsidies

By Jack Thurston. Source: European Voice 24 February 2005

While 2005 has already seen the implementation of a major change in Europe's farm policy, the pressure for further reform of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) will be unrelenting in the months ahead.

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> China must come clean about its energy needs

By Joshua Cooper Ramo. Source: Financial Times, 18 February 2005

In 1915, the Austrian scientist Erwin Schrodinger developed a thought experiment to demonstrate the incompleteness of quantum physics when it moves from explaining the subatomic world to the larger systems we can observe with our eyes. Schrodinger proposed putting a cat inside an opaque box wired with a small, poison gas-release system. The gas-release mechanism would be triggered by the state of a particle inserted into a measuring device: a positively charged particle would result in a dead cat, say, while a negative charge would do nothing. But the state of the particle was unknown to begin with.

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> New realities mean we need a fresh approach to India

By Keith Didcock. Source: Labour Friends of India newsletter

Given our historic links with India, it is easy for the UK to feel complacent about the future of Indo-British relations. A seamless transition from rosy memories of the sunset of empire to Bend It Like Beckham and Bride and Prejudice suggest that the relationship can continue to glide smoothly along, accommodating changing fashions as it goes. The world, however, is changing and Indo-British relations are being shaped by two forces which mean that the UK's approach to its relations with India must change too.

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> A club to foster Middle East reform

By Rouzbeh Pirouz. Source: Financial Times, 16 February 2005

The heartening spectacle of millions of Iraqis defying violence to go to the ballot box recalls similar scenes in Afghanistan and the Palestinian territories.

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> Services Directive is key to Lisbon process

By Dick Leonard. Source: European Voice, 3 February 2005

The main business of the spring EU summit, in Brussels on March 22-23, will be the discussion on how to put the fading Lisbon process back on track, in the light of the devastating report by former Dutch Premier Wim Kok.

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> Can Europe Build a Nato for Africa

By Richard Gowan. Source: The Globalist, 14 January 2005

Africa's ongoing crisis — from the genocide in Darfur to civil conflicts in other countries — continues to defy easy solutions. Richard Gowan of the Foreign Policy Centre argues that the EU should partner with the African Union to provide security and stability. He outlines how an organization modeled on the role NATO played during the Cold War could get the job done for Africa.

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> Can trade be free and fair?

By Rt Hon Hilary Benn MP. Source: FPC Event, 10 January 2005

Thank you very much for inviting me. I apologise for not being able to stay very long. I returned at 05:00 this morning from three days in Banda Aceh, Indonesia, and Sri Lanka. I hope it does not sound odd or discourteous, but I must confess that I found it rather difficult to turn my mind to the subject we're discussing this morning, because it is still full of things – terrible things – I saw, stories I heard, eyes I looked into – some full of tears, some of them blank, some of them empty.

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> Free Trade versus "fair trade"

By Sir Samuel Brittan. Source: FPC event, 10 January 2005

Hilary Benn has described himself as a Benn rather than a Bennite. I thought of describing myself as a Brittan rather than a Brittanite; but I don't think this works quite as well with my own surname!

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> The EU must help Iraq

By Richard Youngs. Source: Süddeutsche Zeitung, 15 December 2004

Please click on the PDF version to read this article in German.

Interim Prime Minister Allawi's attack on "spectator" nations during his recent visit to Brussels is a measure of the frustration felt over Europe's stance on Iraq. Since the US-led invasion of March 2003, European opponents of the war have chosen to remain on the sidelines of reconstruction. Despite the formal handover of power to an interim government this summer, a comprehensive EU plan for assistance has still not been formulated.

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> What the EU should do for Kosovo

By Dick Leonard. Source: European Voice, 13 January 2005

Last month, the EU quietly took over from NATO responsibility for maintaining law and order in Bosnia-Herzogovina. Should it now prepare also to replace NATO's K-For in Kosovo, or even – as German Christian Democratic MEP Doris Pack recently suggested – assume a protectorate for the territory in place of UNMIK (the United Nations Interim Administration in Kosovo)?

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> The Foreign Policy Centre January Update

The latest on the FPC's research, publications and events

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> The US is suffering a chronic deficit of legitimacy

By James Page. Source: The New Statesman, 13 December 2004

James Page was the winner of the 2004 Webb Essay competition with this essay. The essay question was Can democracy be exported?

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> Britain and China: A Growing Global Partnership

By Rt Hon Jack Straw MP. Source: FPC event

Let me start by thanking the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and the Foreign Policy Centre for inviting me to speak at this seminar. This is now the second event which the two organisations have held together, in what is a growing collaboration between them.

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> The Brits protest too much: Time to start talking about a corrective mechanism

By Dick Leonard. Source: European Voice, 2 December 2004

At last week's meeting of the Ecofin Council of Economic and Finance Ministers, the first shots were fired in the battle to set the EU's spending limits for the period 2007-2013. Much the heaviest salvo came from Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer, Gordon Brown.

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> No Fair Trade Without Free Trade

By Herbert Oberhaensli. Source: Wall Street Journal Europe, 22 Nov 2004

The debate about globalization has become increasingly polarized. The anti-globalization or anti-capitalism lobby likes to conjure up images of ruthless corporations urging governments to lower trade barriers in their pursuit for new markets and ever new ways to make a profit. Businesses, particularly those from the industrialized world, they imply, are the only ones to prosper from free trade and so the only ones eager to bring it about. Consumers and workers, meanwhile, pick up the tab. The reality is very different.

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> Book Review: The Beauty Queen's Guide To World Peace

By Rob Blackhurst. Source: Middle Eastern Review

Rob Blackhurst reviews Dan Plesch's latest book.

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> Getting to terms with Serbia-Montenegro

By Dick Leonard. Source: European Voice, 14 October 2004

On Monday (11 October), EU foreign ministers, meeting in Luxembourg, reached a series of decisions which could breathe new life into the largely dormant relationship between the European Union and Serbia-Montenegro. This followed last week's visit to Belgrade by External Relations Commissioner Chris Patten and High Representative Javier Solana, and closely followed their recommendations.

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> Empire's mockery

By Rouzbeh Pirouz. Source: Open Democracy, 12 October 2004

The dark heart of Abu Ghraib reveals the contradiction between America's fine words and degrading deeds in Iraq, says Rouzbeh Pirouz.

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> An Open Letter to the Heads of State and Government

Source: The Moscow Times, 30 September 2004

As citizens of the Euro-Atlantic community of democracies, we wish to express our sympathy and solidarity with the people of the Russian Federation in their struggle against terrorism. The mass murderers who seized School No. 1 in Beslan committed a heinous act of terrorism for which there can be no rationale or excuse. While other mass murderers have killed children and unarmed civilians, the calculated targeting of so many innocent children at school is an unprecedented act of barbarism that violates the values and norms of our community and which all civilized nations must condemn.

At the same time, we are deeply concerned that these tragic events are being used to further undermine democracy in Russia.

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> Where battle will be joined in EU vote

By Richard Gowan. Source: E!Sharp, October 2004

What does a little Englander look like?

Ask most Europeans to visualise a typical British Eurosceptic and they will probably conjure up a young man with cropped hair, numerous tattoos and an unhelpful attitude towards foreign policemen. The reality is rather different.

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> How China is wooing the world

By Mark Leonard. Source: The Guardian, 11 September 2004

In my local curry house I was greeted like a long-lost friend. A huddle of young waiters gesticulated excitedly towards me. Eventually I realised they were pointing at my bag, picked up during a recent trip to China, and emblazoned with the Chinese script for Shanghai. "You've been to China," they said, "China have just put a man in space - they're taking over from America."

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> The east is ready

By Mark Leonard. Source: The Guardian, 11 September 2004

By 2020 China will be on the verge of superseding the US as the world's leading economic power. Time for the US to wake up and smell the soy sauce, reckons Mark Leonard.

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> Why Tony needs help from a Tory

By Mark Leonard. Source: New Statesman, 9 September 2004

Each man kills the thing he loves - and so it could be with Tony Blair and Europe. For ten years the Prime Minister has promised to "settle" Britain's ambivalent relationship with the EU. But he must now admit that he could become a liability to the European cause - provoking otherwise neutral voters to vote against the constitution simply to spite him.

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> Europe's advocates need to make their case now

By Giles Radice. Source: The Financial Times, 6 September 2004

The significance of the referendum on the constitutional treaty for the European Union is clear. A majority Yes vote would not only help improve the efficient working of the European Union (to Britain's benefit as well as that of other members) but also greatly consolidate British membership and influence inside the EU. A No vote would be a famous victory for the Eurosceptics, strengthening the hand of those who want Britain to negotiate a weaker, more tenuous relationship with Europe or even leave the EU altogether.

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> California crosses the Atlantic; Observations on the European Constitution

By Jack Thurston. Source: New Statesman, 30 August 2004

Direct democracy was born in the ancient Athenian city state but soon fell into disuse, only to be revived 2,000 years later by the republican idealism (or mob rule, depending on your view) of the American frontier. Could it be about to come home?

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> Less is more in today's foreign service

By Rob Blackhurst. Source: The Financial Times, 27th August 2004

The French foreign ministry's plans to relocate from a historic building on the Quai D'Orsay in Paris to a utilitarian block on the city's outskirts should challenge stereotypes about lavish Gallic officialdom. In many diplomatic services, however, the belief persists that grand buildings abroad matter.

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> Russia's Newly Found "Soft Power"

By Fiona Hill. Source: The Globalist, 26th August 2004

Russia is back on the global strategic and economic map. For starters, it has regained the prominence in global energy markets it enjoyed in the 1970s and 1980s, when the Soviet Union - not Saudi Arabia — was the preeminent world oil producer. But Russia now has a "new soft power" role that extends far beyond its energy resources.

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> Book Review: Suits and Uniforms: Turkish Foreign Policy since the Cold War, Philip Robins

By Ceren Coskun.

Suits and Uniforms: Turkish Foreign Policy since the Cold War, Philip Robins

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> Darfur: Here's how to stop the killing

By Dr Greg Austin, Ben Koppelman. Source: The Globe and Mail, 30th July 2004

The Sudanese government and Arab militias will only respond to direct threats and payoffs.

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> A New Force in British Politics

By Rob Blackhurst. Source: New Statesman, Monday 26th July 2004

Most voters don't care about foreign policy. Muslims do, and the results could be dramatic.

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> A very American tour of duty

By Jack Thurston. Source: The Guardian, Saturday July 24 2004

The Tour de France through the prism of transatlantic rivalry.

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> What People Really Think of Trade

By John Audley. Source: International Herald Tribune, 22/07/2004

The Foreign Policy Centre were partners with the German Marshall Fund on the launch of their work on trade and public opinion.

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> EU backsliding on Human Rights? Challenge to Dutch presidency from Amnesty International

By Dick Leonard. Source: European Voice, 15 July 2004

It is almost five years since the special summit, at Tampere in Finland, where EU leaders committed themselves to establishing an area of "freedom, justice and security". Under the Dutch presidency, they are due to review the progress made and agree a blueprint for Justice and Home Affairs for the second five years.

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> Don't Despair

By Richard Gowan, Rob Blackhurst.

Pro-European's should not despair. UKIP's triumph was a perfect storm that won't be repeated.

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> The US Heads Home: Will Europe Regret It?

By Mark Leonard. Source: The Financial Times, 26th June 2004

The assertive policy of George W. Bush was supported by three factions that are now blaming eachother for the mess in Iraq. What went wrong with the 'Bush Revolution' -and is the US on the verge of isolationism again? Contact Mark at markhleonard@aol.com with your comments.

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> Time to talk money

By Dick Leonard. Source: European Voice, 4 June 2004

Next week's summit should discuss the EU's long-term financial perspectives.

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> Europe's Uncertain Pursuit of Middle East Reform

By Richard Youngs. Source: Carnegie Endowment , June 2004

Deliberation of democracy promotion in the Middle East intensified after the attacks of 9/11, and has been further energized by the transatlantic debates that were progeny of the Iraqi conflict. More intense debate over support for political change in the Middle East has forced the U.S. and Europe into a closer exploration of each other's actual and intended approaches to democracy promotion in the region.

http://www.ceip.org/files/pdf/CP45.YOUNGS.final.PDF


> After Abu Ghraib

By Rouzbeh Pirouz, Rob Blackhurst.

Away from CNN dispatches from Gaza and Najaf, there are underreported signs that the Middle East - frozen politically and economically for decades - is thawing.

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> A More Effective Way to Reconstruct Afghanistan

By Dr Greg Austin.

Why Is Hamid Karzai, the leader of strife torn Afghanistan, taking time to go to Tashkent in Uzbekistan this week?

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> A Iranian Liberal's Tribute to Ronald Reagan

By Rouzbeh Pirouz.

Perhaps it was fitting that I was in America when Ronald Reagan died. As is their habit, sometimes endearing and sometimes unnerving, Americans quickly moved to the gear they know best: overkill.

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> Can we wait for renewables?

By Rob Blackhurst. Source: Tuesday 18 May 2004

Energy policy has traditionally been the stuff of domestic politics. Governments in the past could pull the levers and decide which energy sources should fuel the economy. They made their decisions for a mixture of scientific, economic and pragmatic reasons – there were unions that needed to be squared, consumers that needed to be kept happy, and jobs that needed to be maintained.

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> The Beijing Consensus

By Joshua Cooper Ramo. Source: The Financial Times

China has discovered its own economic consensus.

Friday 7 May 2004

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> Outsourcing: the acid test for India's liberalisers

By Phoebe Griffith. Source: Global Thinking, Spring 2004

The world's two largest democracies – India and the US – go to the polls this year. But when it comes to political rhetoric about free trade and jobs, the contrasts are stark. While both Republicans and Democrats fret about the deracination of white collar America, Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee launched an election campaign called "India is Shining". Based on India's stunning 8% economic growth in the last quarter of 2004, the campaign is characterised by its feel-good factor. Outsourcing plays a role in both elections.

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> Managing Migration: a Southern perspective

By Phoebe Griffith. Source: March 2004, The Foreign Policy Centre

One of the earliest announcements of the Bush camp's re-election campaign was the introduction of a temporary worker scheme. Although questions about the reality of the promise started to emerge soon after, at the time this transparent attempt to win over the Latino vote was declared a landmark victory for US business and migration activists. But judging from the beam on the face of his Mexican counterpart, President Vicente Fox, Mexico's government seems to have emerged as the biggest winner.

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> Webb Essay competitiion 2003 winning entry by Jennifer Rankin

By Jennifer Rankin.

Jennifer Rankin was the winner of last year's Webb Essay competition. The essay question was 'Is the US a rogue state?'

Download the article (90 kilobyte PDF)


> Social Capital: A policy tool for North and South?

By Cadbury Trust / Foreign Policy Centre.

Click below to read the conference report of the Barrow Cadbury Trust / Foreign Policy Centre Global Exchange Forum.

Download the article (850 kilobyte PDF)


> The EU has its own nation-building problems

By Richard Gowan. Source: Monday April 19 2004

Richard Gowan argues that Europe has nation-building shortcomings of its own.

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> Can There be a New Compact Between Diplomats and Aid Agencies?

By Richard Gowen, Phoebe Griffith. Source: Tuesday 13th April 2004

There is a widely held belief among development practitioners that foreign policy makers are out to get them 'in the national interest', argue Richard Gowan and Phoebe Griffith.

The main reason for this is that the political function of aid is deeply resented by aid practitioners. In the ultimate analysis, development is inevitably political: it shapes the capacity and accountability of governments and helps to define the place of recipient and donor states in the international system. This does not mean that we should further politicise aid. It does, however, imply that there is need for a fuller dialogue between the development and foreign policy communities.

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> What ever happened to globalisation?

By Keith Didcock. Source: Wednesday 31 March 2004

We need a comprehensive reassessment of what globalisation is, argues Keith Didcock

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> Kosovo is a test of European will

By Richard Gowan. Source: Monday 29 March 2004

Richard Gowan argues that European drift has contributed towards ethnic strife

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> Terrorism: What Are The Real Risks?

By Rob Blackhurst. Source: March 22 2004

The message from politicians has been simple. For Ken Livingstone it would be "miraculous" if "some terrorists didn't get through" while for the Prime Minister and the Head of the Metropolitan police it's a question of "when not if". Their plea for us to be "alert but not alarmed" is difficult to internalise when the scenarios range from a lone suicide bomber, through a Madrid style attack, to an unconventional chemical, biological or nuclear attack. "Prepare for every eventuality" is a cliché that has ratcheted the nation into a febrile state. But won't help you survive an attack. In amidst this maelstrom of fear, there is what Donald Rumsfeld might call "known knowns".

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> Spain is not Europe's 9-11

By Mark Leonard.

Four major European countries joined the United States as allies in the Iraq conflict. Now one has been punished in the most brutal fashion, and instead of rallying around the commander in chief as Americans did after 9-11 the Spanish people turned against their leader. As Prime Minister elect Zapatero talks about recalling troops from Iraq, the Bush Administration will be wondering how the tragedy in Madrid will play out with the remaining three. Is this a uniquely Spanish phenomenon – or should they worry about Blair, Berlusconi and Miller too?

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> 'Iraq: one year on'

By Andrew Tyrie MP, John Lloyd.

On 11 March 2004 the Foreign Policy Centre brought together John Lloyd and Conservative MP Andrew Tyrie to take part in a seminar on the Iraq War, one year after they had written contrasting pamphlets on the subject. Transcripts are available below.


> 'Beyond the headlines: the real impact of offshore' presentation: Paul Morrison

By Paul Morrison.

Paul Morrison's presentation for the 'Beyond the headlines: the real impact of offshore' seminar, Session 1 –Globalisation of services: key trends

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> 'Beyond the headlines: the real impact of offshore' presentation: Guy de Jonquières

By Guy de Jonquières.

Guy de Jonquières's presentation for the 'Beyond the headlines: the real impact of offshore' seminar, Session 2 –The impact on the developed economies: Analysis, best practice and policy recommendations

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> 'Beyond the headlines: the real impact of offshore' presentation: Vicky Pryce

By Vicky Pryce.

Vicky Pryce's presentation for the 'Beyond the headlines: the real impact of offshore' seminar, Session 2 –The impact on the developed economies: Analysis, best practice and policy recommendations

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> 'Beyond the headlines: the real impact of offshore' presentation: Roger Lyons

By Roger Lyons.

Roger Lyons's presentation for the 'Beyond the headlines: the real impact of offshore' seminar, Session 2 – The impact on the developed economies: Analysis, best practice and policy recommendations

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> Profile of Rem Koolhaas

By Mark Leonard. Source: The Financial Times

6 March 2004

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> Launch of the Civility Programme on Middle East Reform

By Rt Hon Jack Straw MP.

The Foreign Policy Centre's Civility Programme held its inaugural conference on 1 March, and was launched by the Foreign Secretary, Jack Straw. A full text of his speach is available below.

In addition, a PDF can be downloaded which includes highlights from the other speakers at the conference. This includes the EU's Marc Otte, Emma Bonino, and Fred Halliday from the LSE.

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> Civil Society speech

By Michael Edwards.

Nowadays, it is difficult to have a conversation about politics or public policy without mentioning the words "civil society", so one might assume that politicians and policy makers are clear about what they mean when they use these words, and why civil society is so important. Unfortunately clarity and rigor are conspicuous by the absence in the civil society debate…

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> Iraqis don't need more propaganda

By Mark Leonard, Rouzbeh Pirouz. Source: International Herald Tribune, 6 Feb 2004

Last May the Iraqi people celebrated the end of Saddam Hussein's stranglehold over what they saw and heard through the media. However,Washington's controlling attitude to broadcasting in the region has left many Iraqis feeling that US commitments to free speech are more rhetoric than reality.

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> A transatlantic divorce?

By Alain Minc.

Alain Minc is one of France's leading thinkers; he is an historian, economist, social commentator and business guru. In December 2003 he delivered a lecture on the state of transatlantic relations, chaired by Peter Mandelson.

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> Mighty Europe

By Mark Leonard. Source: Wall Street Journal Europe, 5 Feb 2004

London, Paris and Berlin are working hard to put the past behind them. After a year that began with bitter rancor over Iraq and ended with the collapse of negotiations over the European constitution, the desire of pro-Europeans to face the future is understandable.

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> A question of credibility

By Mark Leonard. Source: Observer, 1 June 2003

Can the government say 'not yet' to the euro and still claim to have a serious European policy? Pro-euro campaigners will demand a credible road map for entry

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> Remarks to the Foreign Policy Centre Event; Transatlantic Storms

By Jeff McAllister, London Bureau Chief for Time.

Jeff McAllister suggests that 'tepid non-unilateralism' is likley to be adopted by the US administrtaion in dealing with the the UN, Middle East and North Korea

Download the article (10 kilobyte PDF)


> The Losers of Liberalisation

By Jack Thurston.

Jack Thurston, former politcal advisor to the Ministry of Agriculture, argues that removing protectionist barriers in agriculture could harm the developing countries its trying to help.

Download the article (10 kilobyte PDF)


> Can we wait for renewables? Lessons from Europe

Seminar Transcript from July 2003

Download the article (70 kilobyte PDF)


> Don't Hold Your Breath

By Mark Leonard.

British pro-Europeans cannot wait for the Government to take a lead

Download the article (10 kilobyte PDF)


> Speech by Jack Straw to the Foreign Policy Centre

By Rt Hon Jack Straw MP.

Jack Straw delived a speech on Europe to the Foreign Policy Centre on 28 August 2003

Download the article (20 kilobyte PDF)


> Liberal Intervention: The Empire's new clothes?

A public roundtable on Empire chaired by Michael Portillo with Mark Leonard, Phillip Bobbitt, Robert Cooper, Lindsay Hilsum, Michael Gove and Naomon Muna

Download the article (80 kilobyte PDF)


> African Priorities: Democracy isn't the place to start.

By Marina Ottaway. Source: The International Herald and Tribune

July 2003

Download the article (10 kilobyte PDF)


> Rebranding Europe

By Mark Leonard.

Mark Leonard argues for a rebranding of the European idea.

Download the article (50 kilobyte PDF)


> The perverse logic that divides impoverished Africa

By Alex de Waal. Source: The Guardian, 16 July 2003

Alex de Waal is programme director for the Commossion for HIV/Aids and governance in Africa, and a director of Justice Africa. A longer version of this essay appears in "Unbinding Africa"

Download the article (10 kilobyte PDF)


> AFTER THE WAR EVENT REPORT

By Michael Lind, Baroness Williams, Robert Harvey, Phillip Bobbitt.

Read the transcript of the Prospect/Foreign Policy Centre Event "After the War"

Download the article (50 kilobyte PDF)


> Brown's euro ambiguity is no longer credible

By Giles Radice. Source: The Financial Times

The author of the Foreign Policy Centre publication "How to Join the Euro" again warns that leaving the decision over whether to join the single currency to the Chancellor risks fudging the most important political and economic decision of our time.

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> Why the Franco-German Plan would Institutionalise 'Cohabitation' for Europe

By Simon Hix, Gérard Roland.

With the Convention due to report soon, Simon Hix and Gerard Roland argue that the Chirac-Schroeder plan for electing the Commission President is tempting but flawed.

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> The Healer

By Robert Kagan. Source: Guardian, 3 March 2003

Robert Kagan, Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for Peace, writes that the ideas expressed by Robert Cooper in the FPC-published 'The Postmodern State and World Order' provide the intellectual framework for understanding transatlantic foreign policy differences- and how Tony Blair can resolve them.

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> Global Britons Forum, London

The last leg of the Global Britons roadshow saw Yasmin Alibhai-Brown, Beverley Hughes (Minister for Immigration), Mike Philips (author and academic) and Philip Dodd (Director of the Institute of Contemporary Arts) exchanging ideas and opinions about identity and society in today's London. Often diverging but always insightful, the various views expressed in the panel discussion held on the 27th March can be read below.

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> Has Tony Blair made Britain a pariah state?

By Mark Leonard. Source: Observer, 30 March 2003

The Prime Minister's attachment to the United States, and his own moral case for war, has damaged Britain's reputation across the world. How can the diplomatic damage be repaired?

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> Propaganda will not Sway the Arab street

By Mark Leonard, Conrad Smewing. Source: Financial Times, 27 M arch 2003

Following the launch of their British Council-commissioned report 'Public Diplomay and the Middle East'- and against a background of conflict in Iraq- Leonard and Smewing argue that radical policy reform is needed to change Britain's standing in the Arab World.

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> Winning the peace

By Mark Leonard. Source: Observer, 2 March 2003

Western governments will not overcome Middle East hostility unless they are ready to change their policies and tackle fears that Islamophobia is rife in the west

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> Take the Euro Veto Away From The Treasury

By Giles Radice. Source: Financial Times, 12 February 2003

Following up his road-map for sucesful entry into the single currency, the FPC-published policy pamphlet, 'How to Join the Euro', Lord Radice again takes up the cudgels for the pro-Europeans. Drawing on ideas elaborated in How to Join the Euro, Radice argues that such a critically important issue requires key members of the cabinet to form a "euro strategy group" to take the debate forward. Read the full text here.

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> The necessity and impossibility of taking sides

By Mark Leonard. Source: Observer, 19 January 2003

A personal reflection on the dilemmas raised by the Israeli election for Jews around the world

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> Global Britons Forum in Wales

An opportunity to read the full transcript of the Global Britons Forum in Wales. The speakers included David Williams, BBC Wales Political Editor; Yasmin Alibhai-Brown, The Independent columnist; Professor Kevin Morgan, Professor of European Regional Development at Cardiff University;Lynne Williams, Chief Executive of Cardiff 2008 Ltd in 2002, Charlotte Williams author of 'Sugar and Slate' and Merryl Wyn Davies author of 'Why Do People Hate America?'.

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> Travel Advice Launch Event Speech

By Rachel Briggs.

This is a copy of the speech delivered by Risk and Security Manager Rachel Briggs at the recent launch of the policy report on FCO Travel Advice. Other speakers included Austrailian High Commissioner H.E Michael L'Estrange, James Watt of the FCO Consular Section and Manny Fontenla-Novoa of Thomas Cook.

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> We can still win this euro referendum- but Mr Blair must get his act together

By Roy Jenkins.

As a tribte to Roy Jenkins, we publish the speech he made to launch How to Win the Euro Referendum for The Foreign Policy Centre.

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> The Unlikely Counter Terrorists

By Rachel Briggs.

This article appeared in Security Monitor, the journal published by the Homeland Security and Resilience Programme at RUSI.

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> The Unlikely Counter-Terrorists - Launch Event Findings

The Unlikely Counter-Terrorists argues that business involvement in counter-terrorism policies and activities is vital to the success of the UK's response. See below for the key findings from the launch event

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> Webb Essay Competition 2002 - Winning Essay

By Alexej Behnisch.

The Foreign Policy Centre annually hosts a Webb-Essay competition. The winning is published in New Statesman, Christmas edition. Read a copy of Alexej Behnisch's winning essay, entitled Why are we afraid of the European Union?.

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> Geoff Hoon: Intervening in the New Security Environment

By Rt Hon. Geoff Hoon MP.

DEFENCE SECRETARY SPEECH TO FOREIGN POLICY CENTRE

12 November 2002

Transcript:

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> Webb Essay Competition 2002 - Second Prize

By Peter Bartal.

Peter Bartel, aged 21, from Timisoara, Romania came second in the Webb Essay competition of 2002. Read his essay below.

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> Webb Essay Competition 2002 - Third Prize

By Fabien Curto-Millet.

In third place in this year's Webb Essay Competition was Fabien Curto-Millet, aged 20. Read his essay below.

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> The price we pay for staying out

By Mark Leonard. Source: Observer, 3 November 2002

Time is running out for a decision on euro entry, says the director of a leading Blairite thinktank

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> Could the left back an Iraq war?

By Mark Leonard. Source: Observer, 11 August 2002

Caricatures of the left as pacifist are false. But President Bush is making the wrong case for war if he wants to win over his critics, argues a leading foreign policy analyst.

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> Velvet fist in the iron glove

By Mark Leonard. Source: Observer, 16 June 2002

In the latest of his monthly online commentaries for Observer Worldview, Mark Leonard examines the Bush administration's efforts to change the way the United States communicates with foreign publics. This may cut against the grain of American foreign policy, but it offers important lessons for Europe's own efforts to win friends and influence people.

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> Why America isn't listening

By Mark Leonard. Source: Observer, 10 March 2002

The first in a new series of monthly columns on global issues from one of Britain's leading foreign policy thinkers: Tony Blair is attempting to win international support for an American strategy which he can't control. Its a dangerous strategy, but Europe needs him to succeed.

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> CAP reform: No more stalling

By Chris Haskins.

Powerful farming lobbies must not stand in the way of progress

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> The retaliators: Young People and Integration

By Adrienne Katz, Executive Director of Young Voice. Source: Reclaiming Britishness

Adrienne Katz looks at the pressures on young people in the inner cities.

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> No More Summits

By Sir Michael Butler. Source: Global Thinking Issue 08, Autumn 2002

Read this longer version of Sir Butler's article outlining why constitutional reform will only make the EU more unpopular.

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> Integration with Diversity: Globalisation and the Renewal of Democracy and Civil Society

By The Rt. Hon David Blunkett MP, Home Secretary of the United Kingdom.. Source: Reclaiming Britishness

Read David Blunkett's controversial essay on community and integration here.

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> Living together after 11 September and the rise of the Right

By Mark Leonard, Director of The Foreign Policy Centre. Source: Introduction to Reclaiming Britishness

Mark Leonard outlines how a modern, inclusive, outward-looking notion of Britishness can be used as a guide to policy in this introduction to Reclaiming Britishness.

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> It could happen to you

By Rachel Briggs. Source: Observer, 25 August 2002

With more Britons getting into trouble abroad, the Foreign Office should rethink the way it gets advice to travellers, argues Rachel Briggs the author of Travel Advice

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> Dishonest and greedy? We still need business to do good

By Mark Leonard. Source: Observer Worldview, 21 July 2002

The left must resist the temptation to crow at corporate misfortune. Governments are right to seek to harness corporate power in delivering public goods, but still haven't worked out how to get what they want.

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> Immigrants Get Older Too

By Andrew Geddes.

Immigration is not a magic solution to an ageing population, argues.

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> Across the Barricades

By Mike Edwards.

Consultation rather than crowd control is the way for global institutions to deal with civil society.

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> CAP Reform – European leaders must see the wood from the twigs

By Jack Thurston.

Jack Thurston urges European leaders to reform CAP.

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> The EU and Social Protection: What Should the European Convention Propose?

By Frank Vanden Broucke.

Read the full text of this speech given by the Belgian Minister for Social Affairs on the 17th June 2002 at the Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies, Cologne. This speech was developed from debate at a luncheon held on the 10th May by The Foreign Policy Centre and the Corporation of London.

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> Democratising the EU

By Anna Lindh.

Read the full text of a speech given by Anna Lindh, Sweden's Minister for Foreign Affairs, at this seminar held by the FPC and the British Council in Stockholm on the 24th May.

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> Launch of "From War to Work: Drug Treatment, Social Inclusion and Enterprise"

By Rowena Young.

Read the event report from the launch of "From War to Work," held at the Design Council on Monday 20th May 2002.

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> Will the euro be a casualty of Blair's Iraq war?

By Mark Leonard. Source: Observer, 14 April 2002

For Tony Blair to help to take out Saddam, fix the public services and end Britain's historic ambivalence towards Europe would take a feat of leadership unparalleled in British politics since 1945, says a leading pro-European thinker.

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> Lessons of Le Pen

By Mark Leonard. Source: The Foreign Policy Centre

The European left needs to persuade the public that immigration is an opportunity not a threat.

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> McNamara's Ghosts

By Mark Leonard, Rob Blackhurst. Source: The Foreign Policy Centre

Mark Leonard and Rob Blackhurst meet former US Defence Secretary Robert McNamara.

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> Linking National Politics to Europe

By Simon Hix. Source: The Foreign Policy Centre

Simon Hix's policy brief was launched at the Centre with a lively debate.

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> The Post Modern State

By Robert Cooper. Source: Re-Ordering the World

Robert Cooper's chapter from the recent Foreign Policy Centre publication Re-Ordering the World: The long-term implications of September 11th has caused quite a stir with its call for "a new kind of imperialism". Read the full article here and judge for yourself.

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> Speech by Jack Straw at the Third Anniversary of The Foreign Policy Centre

By Rt Hon Jack Straw MP.

Read the full text of Jack Straw's speech given at The Foreign Policy Centre on Monday 25th March at the launch of Re-Ordering the World: The long-term implications of September 11th

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> High Stakes in the New Global Politics

By Michael Edwards. Source: Published in the Toronto Globe and Mail

Michael Edwards examines the future of NGOs and the anti-globalisation movement in a post September 11 world.

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> Address by Lord Cairns, Director of CDC

By Lord Cairns.

Given at the Foreign Policy Centre's Managing Migration conference at Canada House on Tuesday 15th January

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> Address by the Home Secretary, David Blunkett MP

By Rt Hon David Blunkett MP.

Given at the Foreign Policy Centre Managing Migration Conference on Tuesday 15th January at Canada House

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> Address by Ella Kalsbeek, Secretary of State for Justice, The Netherlands

By Ella Kalsbeek.

Given at the Foreign Policy Centre Managing Migration Conference on Tuesday 15th January at Canada House

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> Address by Ram Gidoomal

By Ram Gidoomal.

Given at the Foreign Policy Centre Managing Migration Conference on Tuesday 15th January, Canada House

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> Address by Rosaline Frith, Director General, Integration Branch, Citizenship and Immigration Canada

By Rosaline Frith.

Given at the Foreign Policy Centre Managing Migration Conference, Canada House on Tuesday 15th January 2002

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> Global Britons?

Source: Global Thinking, The FPC Newsletter

The Foreign Policy Centre has embarked on a yearlong study of British-ness. What does it mean to be British in multicultural, post-devolution Britain? Is "Britishness" a historical convenience invented for the Age of Empire? We asked these questions at seminars in Birmingham and Manchester. Music impresarios rubbed shoulders with inner city headmasters, Afghan Refugees swapped experiences with Birmingham school kids. Luckily, someone remembered to bring along the tape recorder:

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> Finding New Friends in Europe

By Tom Arbuthnott, Tom Arbuthnott. Source: BCC Online

Tom Arbuthnott analyses the Blair-Berlusconi relationship.

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> Managing Migration

Source: Global Thinking, The FPC Newsletter

Not enough is done to make migrants feel part of the community, argues Phoebe Griffith

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> Interview with Sir Stephen Wall

Source: Global Thinking, The FPC Newsletter

What are the assumptions that lie behind British Foreign Policy? Sir Stephen Wall, the Prime Minister's Europe Advisor and Head of The European Secretariat in the Cabinet Office speaks to Mark Leonard and Rob Blackhurst.

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> Information isn't Power

Source: Global Thinking, The FPC Newsletter

Kate Oakley argues that inequalities in income, life chances and lifestyles are more important than any 'digital divide' in separating the developed from the developing world

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> Can Brussels Earn the Right to Act?

Source: Global Thinking, The FPC Newsletter

As the convention on the future of Europe holds its first meeting, Mark Leonard argues the case for the principle of subsidiarity.

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> Corporate Security After September 11th

Source: Global Thinking, The FPC Newsletter

At last there is public support for an effective anti-terrorist policy, argues Rachel Briggs

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> Africans on Africa

Source: Global Thinking, The FPC Newsletter

In the wake of the Prime Minister's whistle-stop tour of Africa, we canvassed opinion formers across the continent on what the West should be doing, what Africans should be doing themselves, and what the continent will look like in ten years.

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> The Rise of Bin Laden

Source: Global Thinking, The FPC Newsletter

British Middle East expert Fed Halliday and dissident Iraqi academic Kanan Makiya explore the regional implications of Bin Laden.

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> Italy After Ruggiero

By Tom Arbuthnott. Source: BBCi

Tom Arbuthnott looks at what is likely to happen in the Italian government now that the well repected foreign minister Renato Ruggiero has resigned.

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> The EU Vanity Parade

By Tom Arbuthnott. Source: BBC Online

The Foreign Policy Centre's Europe Researcher considers the prospects of genuine progress at the Laeken Summit

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> Laeken's Lows

By Tom Arbuthnott. Source: BBC Online

Tom Arbuthnott looks back over the Laeken Summit with a critical eye.

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> Review - The Dot.com 'Revolution'

By Mark Leonard.

Has the dot.com 'revolution' encountered its Thermidor? Here, Mark Leonard, Director of The Foreign Policy Centre, reviews three books on the phenomenon, Dot.Bomb - The Rise and Fall of Dor.com Britain by Rory Cellan-Jones, Dotbomb – Inside an Internet Goliath - from Lunatic Optimism to Panic and Crash by J. David Kuo and The Internet Galaxy: Reflections on the Internet, Business and Society by Manuel Castells.

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> Yes to Europe - because life's better there

By Mark, Dick Leonard, Mark Leonard. Source: The Observer

If pro-Europeans want to win the public argument then they will need to move from abstract debates and history lessons to showing how the British can share the good life of our continental neighbours.

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> Post-September 11: Implications for Regional Stability and Security in Southeast Asia

Source: Event Report

13 November 2001

As trouble spreads in the aftermath of September 11, will stability in Southeast Asia be the next victim? At this event, former Philippine President Fidel Ramos addressed the real need to examine the implications of September 11 and subsequent events for the region.

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> Global Britons Manchester Seminar

Click to read the full text

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> The Kidnapping Business

By Rachel Briggs. Source: Guild of Security Controllers Newsletter

The following article appeared in the November edition of the Guild of Security Controllers Newsletter.

It is the first article in a series of four looking at different elements of kidnapping: the trends, how companies can reduce their risks, what companies should do when a kidnapping happens and what companies should do once a case is resolved.

Copies of the report The Kidnapping Business by Rachel Briggs can be ordered using the order form on this site. For more information about the report, see 'Publications' and more articles in this section below.

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> Companies: Tackling the Risk of Kidnapping

By Rachel Briggs. Source: Guild of Security Controllers Newsletter

The following article appears in the Spring edition of the Guild of Security Controllers' newsletter.

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> Review - Dangerous Data by Adam Lury and Simon Gibson

By Mark Leonard. Source: The New Statesman

Here Mark Leonard reviews a book which offers a novel concept in political writing

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> Yes to Europe - because life's better there

By Dick Leonard, Mark Leonard. Source: Observer, 2 December 2001

If pro-Europeans want to win the public argument then they will need to move from abstract debates and history lessons to showing how the British can share the good life of our continental neighbours.

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> Global Thinking Review - Winter 2001

Reviewed in this edition of Global Thinking are a collection of George Orwell's political works, David Cannadine's study of Britain's imperialist past, John R. Lampe's 'Yugoslavia as History', Benny Morris's scrupulous account of the Zionist-Arab conflict, Wolpert's biography of Gandhi and John Campbell's of Margaret Thatcher

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> A Single Market for Governance?

By Tom Arbuthnott. Source: Global Thinking, Winter 2001

Tom Arbuthnott argues that a trip on the booze cruise could teach Europe's politicians some valuable lessons

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> What Should We Really Expect from Big Business?

By Simon Zadek. Source: Global Thinking, Winter 2001

Simon Zadek argues that we should enlist corporations to tackle poverty and environmental degradation in this essay based on his forthcoming publication for the Foreign Policy Centre, Public Policy and Business in Society

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> Can Companies Be Good Global Citizens?

By Richard Winter, Group Company Secretary, General Counsel, Six Continents PLC.

Speech delivered at The Foreign Policy Centre Fringe Event, Labour Party Conference 2001

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> Speech by the Rt Hon Douglas Alexander, Secretary of State for E-Commerce and Competitiveness

By Rt Hon Douglas Alexander MP.

Speech Delivered at The Foreign Policy Centre Fringe Event, Labour Party Conference 2001

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> Is K&R Coverage a Risky Business?

By Rachel Briggs. Source: lloyds.com

The following article by Rachel Briggs, manager of the Centre's Security Programme, was published on lloyds.com, the site of Lloyds of London.

'The Kidnapping Business' by Rachel Briggs was published by The Foreign Policy Centre, March 2001.

For details about 'The Kidnapping Business' by Rachel Briggs, please see 'Current Publications'.

To order a copy of the report, please complete the order form and send with payment to the Centre.

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> The Lessons from Genoa and the Changing Role of NGOs

Source: Event Report

On 11 September, The Foreign Policy Centre held a high-level seminar aiming to set out the key lessons to be learned from Genoa and to re-think the role of NGOs in the global governance structure. Click here to read the full report.

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> The Future of International Development

By Andrew Howard, Phoebe Griffith. Source: Event Report

With the tear gas still hanging in the air over Genoa, the Foreign Policy Centre hosted a timely lecture by Clare Short, Secretary of State for International Development. Chaired by Zeinab Badawi, BBC broadcaster and member of the Foreign Policy Centre's advisory council, the lecture tackled a range of issues concerning the role of international development in an increasingly globalised world. Emphasis was placed upon the need for development policies to empower poor countries to help themselves and build sustainable, effective, modern states capable of exploiting the benefits of globalisation.

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> Security through Democratisation

By Tonino Picula, Croatian Foreign Minister.

In June 2001, the Croatian Foreign Minister, Tonino Picula, spoke at a breakfast roundtable at The Foreign Policy Centre on achieving security through democratisation in South-East Europe. Please click below to read a copy of his speech.

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> Lessons from the East

By Rowena Young. Source: Global Thinking

Rowena Young argues that we must learn from Asia if our drug policies are to stand a chance of success.

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> Come on, you can sell us the euro better than that, Mr Blair

By Mark Leonard. Source: The Daily Telegraph, 13 June 2001

Public services could be the key to selling europe

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> The Future of Democracy in Europe: Five Heretical Proposals

By Mark Leonard. Source: Global Thinking

Mark Leonard sets out a plan for revitalising democracy in the EU

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> Pharmaceuticals and Intellectual Property: Overcoming the Impasse

By James Walters, Sofia Perenyi, Phoebe Griffith. Source: Event Report

Following the disputes between Pharmaceutical companies and the governments of South Africa, Thailand and Brazil, the fourth event in the 2000-2001 Global Health lecture series tackled the issue of intellectual property in the pharmaceuticals bringing together a diverse group of senior representatives from the four key stakeholders in the debate: Adrian Otten, Director of Intellectual Property at the WTO, Chris Viehbacher, President of Pharmaceuticals GlaxoSmithKline Europe, Phil Bloomer, Director of Oxfam Cut the Cost campaign and H. E. Sergio Silva do Amaral, the Brazilian Ambassador. The panel was kindly chaired by Prof. Sebastian Lucas, Senior Lecturer at Guy's, Kings and St Thomas School of Medicine.

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> The Euro non-Revolution

By Tom Arbuthnott.

The Euro is just a currency. When it emerges on 1 January next year, it will stop being an issue of high political contention. While the ability to compare prices will create a political space in Europe, it will not confer added legitimacy on the European political system. In an article published on BBC News Online on 14 April 2001, Tom Arbuthnott analyses the psychological impact of the euro.

See http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/europe/newsid_1276000/1276183.stm for the full article.

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> The Kidnapping Business - Launch event speech

By Keith Bloomfield, Head CTPD, FCO.

Keith Bloomfield, Head of the Counter Terrorism Policy Department at the Foreign Office, delivered the following speech at the launch event for The Kidnapping Business by Rachel Briggs, held at The Foreign Policy Centre on April 10th 2001.

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> Welcome to the smart strike

By Mark Leonard. Source: New Statesman

Unions get a bad press if they hurt the public. The wiser ones are exploring new ways to get what they want.

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> The Kidnapping Business

By Rachel Briggs. Source: The Foreign Policy Centre publication

This report, published by The Foreign Policy Centre outlines the problem of economic kidnapping and sets out a new framework for policy makers in tackling the crime.

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> The Kidnapping Business - Launch event speech

By Rachel Briggs.

The following text is the speech delivered by Rachel Briggs, report author, at the event to mark the launch of the report.

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> Sex, Population, Pollution and Prospects for a small planet

By Phoebe Griffith. Source: Foreign Policy Centre Lecture

Global Health Lecture Series 2000-2001

In Association with MEDSIN and The Wellcome Trust

Tuesday 13th February, 7pm

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> Building Democracy in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia - Public Diplomacy Strategies

By Event Report. Source: Seminar: Thursday 19 October

Building Democracy in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia – Public Diplomacy Strategies

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> The New European Economy

The Foreign Policy convened a panel discussion to discuss entrepreneurship and innovation in New Economy Europe, in the run up to the Stockholm European Summit.

Has the process of government by objectives, established at Lisbon last year, managed to deliver tangible benefits?

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> Danish Euro Vote: Lessons for Britain

By Mark Leonard, Mariell Juhlin. Source: The Foreign Policy Centre briefing

Pro-Europeans can't win on economics alone.

"Its the politics stupid" says think-tank analysis of Danish Euro campaign.

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> It's still Yes

By Mark Leonard. Source: The Guardian, 30 September 2000

British Europhiles can learn a lot from the Danish defeat, says the Director of The Foreign Policy Centre. (The Guardian, www.guardian.co.uk)

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> The Drugs Wars Don't Work

By Rachel Briggs. Source: The Foreign Policy Centre

Holy Wars Against Drugs are doomed to failure, says Rachel Briggs

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> Liberty, equality, property

By Mark Leonard. Source: New Statesman, 4 September 2000

The third-world poor hold assets worth as much as all the companies listed on the world's main stock exchanges. So why are they poor? Mark Leonard explains.

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> Time to put the NGO House in Order

By Mike Edwards. Source: Financial Times, 6 June 2000

Mike Edwards argues that NGOs must take account of their critics

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> We must answer the hard questions about asylum

By Mark Leonard. Source: The Guardian, 15 April 2000

Labour won't win if it tries to out-Widdecombe the Tories

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> Why multiculturalism has failed

By Yasmin Alibhai-Brown. Source: Daily Telegraph, 23 May 2000

Multiculturalism threatens British identity and pits us against each other

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> US Dual-use Technology Exports to China

By Garry Hindle.

Further to the FPC's recent paper on the EU decision to lift the ban on arms exports to China, the data below give an insight into the value and number of US exports of dual-use technologies to China since 1998.

Download the FPC briefing (90 kilobyte PDF)