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Foreign Policy Centre

Progressive Thinking for A Global Age

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China and the US: Doomed to Rivalry

On the 13th November 2004, John Mearsheimer, the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science and the co-director of the Program on International Security Policy at the University of Chicago, author of The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, lectured on the likely course of the Sino-U.S. relationship in the 21st century. A prominent realist, he claimed that if China's stunning economic growth continued, China would be unable to continue to rise peacefully. Mearsheimer posited that intense security competition will be increasingly likely as China becomes a peer competitor to America in the Asia-Pacific region, which will create the serious probability of war. A balancing coalition will therefore form against China, led by the U.S. and consisting of Japan, Russia, India, Singapore and Korea, with the result that China and America will be doomed to rivalry.