5 February 2007

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Military attack on Iran would have disastrous consequences warns new report: Coalition urges new diplomatic push to avoid crisis

Military action against Iran could have disastrous global consequences according to a new report published today by a diverse group of organisations including Oxfam, the Foreign Policy Centre, faith groups and others.

On the one year anniversary of Iran's referral to the Security Council, a new joint report by 15 organisations - including think tanks, aid agencies, religious groups and Trade Unions - warns that, despite the seriousness of the situation, there is still 'time to talk'. This must be used to avoid an escalation with potentially disastrous consequences.

The report urges the UK government to work with allies in a sustained effort to find a diplomatic solution. In particular, they should push for:

• Face to face talks between Iran and the US
• A compromise on the suspension of uranium enrichment as a precondition for negotiation
• Further development of a 'grand bargain' in which the EU offer of June 2006 is developed further to include security guarantees between Israel, Iran and the US.

"The consequences of military action against Iran are not only unpalatable, they are unthinkable. Even according to the worst estimates, Iran is still years away from having a nuclear weapon. There is still time to talk and the Prime Minister must make sure our allies use it," said Stephen Twigg, Director of the Foreign Policy Centre.

According to the report, military action against Iran could:

• Further jeopardise the prospects of peace taking root in the Middle East - Long standing Iranian links to Hamas in Gaza and the West Bank, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Shia groups in Iraq, along with the presence of significant minority Shia populations in Saudi Arabia, could lead to severe destabilisation throughout the Middle East.
• Severely undermine hopes for stability in Iraq - Iran has several thousand intelligence agents operating in the Shia region of Iraq and has been accused of arming Shia insurgents. A decision to activate insurgent units could lead to a massive escalation in violence.
• Bolster the position of hard-liners and set back chances of reform within Iran - Recent municipal elections suggest that the bellicose rhetoric of Ahmadinejad is beginning to lose appeal. Over the winter there have been fuel shortages and inflation continues to rise. Ahmadinejad's popularity is waning. Military strikes would unify Iranians, ignite greater nationalist feeling and undermine the growing prospects of an internal shift in power.
• Push developing countries into greater poverty – If military action led to an increase in oil prices. For example, a $10 increase in oil price could drop the GDPs of Sub-Saharan African states by an average of 3% with serious implications for those already living in poverty.
• Damage UK, US and European economies – if oil prices rose to $100 per barrel this could increase the risk of recession.
• Threaten serious environmental contamination - Bombing could result in radioactive contamination, oil slicks and oil well fires that could take years to deal with.
• Increase the terror threat to the UK by fuelling resentment and bolstering extremists.

The report will be launched at: The Foreign Press Association, 11 Carlton House Terrace, London SW1Y 5AJ at 10.30am on Monday 5 February 2007

For more information, a copy of the report or interviews please contact Alex Bigham on: alex.bigham[at]fpc.org.uk

The Coalition includes: Amicus, Amos Trust, British Muslim Forum, Christian Solidarity Worldwide, Foreign Policy Centre, GMB, International Physicians against the Prevention of Nuclear War, Medact, Muslim Council of Britain, Muslim Parliament, Ockenden International, Oxfam, Oxford Research Group, Pax Christi, PCS, People and Planet, Unison.

http://www.crisisiran.com/