By Firdevs Robinson.

FPC Senior Research Associate gives her analysis of Turkey's role on the international stage and as a leading player in the evolving map of the Middle East. She notes Turkey's enhanced prestige but assesses the on going problems with Syria, France, Cyprus and the challenges it faces at home.

Download FPC Briefing: Turkey – Role Model or Regional Bully? (420 kilobyte PDF)

By Toby Greene, Prof. Alan Johnson.

As part of the FPC's new Israel and Palestine after the Arab Spring essay series Dr Toby Green and Prof Alan Johnson from BICOM (Alan is also a longstanding FPC Senior Research Associate) give us their take on the current state of the conflict. They argue that attempts to reach a two state solution are at a crisis and Palestinian refusal to enter negotiations without pre-conditions was a key problem. They argue that the US had made a policy error in insisting on a full-settlement freeze from which it later climbed down and that the Palestinian decision to go unilaterally to the UN was an error. They argue regional change put pressure on the Fatah and Hamas to form a unity deal and the regime changes in neighbours have removed important alliances. They argue that the international community needs to work with the political reality on the ground, focus on bottom-up not top-down initiatives, set realistic expectations and look for incremental steps forward.

Download FPC Briefing: How do we create a future for two-states (430 kilobyte PDF)

By John Lyndon.

As part of the FPC's new Israel and Palestine after the Arab Spring essay series John Lyndon, Executive director of OneVoice Europe (a peace building NGO operating with communities in both Israel and Palestine) gives us his take on the state of the conflict. He argues that the Arab Spring risks the rise of new governments more hostile to Israel but that shifts to the right in Israeli policy have been 'insular' and 'troubling'. He argues that the last year has seen Israel and the international community disempower the moderate Palestinian leadership, through continued settlement building and the rejection of the statehood option, while the prisoner transfer agreement following the Shalit release strengthened Hamas. He believes support for the two state solution and hope for negotiations are at an all-time low but calls for an active response from civil-society.

Download FPC Briefing: Israel, Palestine, and the "Urgency of Now" (290 kilobyte PDF)

By Gerard Russell. Source: Politics.co.uk

As Libya approaches a new dawn we must appreciate that some things will go wrong, but there is an advisory role for foreign powers to fulfil.

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By Ziya Meral. Source: Public Service Europe

None of us really foresaw how quickly waves of change could alter the political landscape across the Middle East and North Africa – because most opinion makers were looking at the region through the lenses of security, Islamism, stability and migration. Yet, just like a good detective story, the clues of what was to happen were in front of us all the time.

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By Stephen Minas. Source: ABC.net.ac

On January 25, Egyptians took to Tahrir Square to claim freedom from dictatorship. They were soon followed by former Bush administration officials and conservative commentators, who took to the opinion pages of America's journals of record to claim vindication.

Specifically, vindication for George W Bush's 'freedom agenda' of promoting the spread of democracy. And as the protests in Egypt grew ever larger, and the reign of President Hosni Mubarak looked increasingly doomed, the claims on behalf of the 'freedom agenda' became bolder.

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By Ziya Meral. Source: Channel 4 News Website

While President Mubarak and his faithful inner circle are pulling all of their usual tricks to maintain power, the international community is busy conceiving scenarios for the future of Egypt.

For some, the future looks bleak. Doomsday projections include an immediate Islamist takeover of the country which would result in Islamisation of the seemingly secular country structures, end of neutral relations with Israel, cooperation with the "war on terror" and issues regarding Palestine, stability in economic relations, and access to key transportation routes. The archetype, which the process in Egypt is likened to in these scenarios, is Iran.

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By Alex Bigham. Source: Yorkshire Post

International support for the protests in Egypt has come from some unlikely quarters. While you'd expect qualified endorsement from leaders in the west, one of the most repressive regimes in the world has been trying to claim the uprising as its own. The Iranian state media has said the protests were inspired by the 1979 revolution, as a protest against a western backed, secular despot.

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By Deen Sharp.

In June 2009 Lebanon held its first 'free' election since 1972. On the conclusion of the elections Western media and political analysts were particularly guilty of premature celebrations and hyperbole, regarding the Western backed March 14 coalition election victory. These past elections were not a battle in which: "President Barack Obama defeated President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran"(1) or Western ideals of liberal democracy triumphed against Islamic totalitarianism. This confusion was immediately evident after the winning March 14 coalition soon began to fracture and Lebanon fell into all too familiar political paralysis. The reason for this misplaced euphoria by Western pundits was due to an essential misunderstanding about the battle being fought on the Lebanese political playing field. These elections were largely void of political ideology and were centered on the fight to represent certain sectarian groups, especially so for the Christian population, and the protection of patrimonial networks.

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By Chris Phillips. Source: Guardian Comment is Free

To view original article visit: http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/oct/01/turkey-syria-friendship

Just over a decade ago, Turkey's army gathered on its southern border in anticipation of a war with Syria that was narrowly avoided. Just over a fortnight ago, the two neighbours signed accords allowing for visa-free passage between the two states. Syria's president, Bashar al-Assad, now describes Turkey as Syria's best friend, while Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey's prime minister, publicly calls Syrians his brothers.

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By Chris Phillips. Source: Guardian Comment is Free

The gradual return of international diplomats to Damascus signals a thaw in Syria's intractable feud with Saudi Arabia

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By Chris Phillips. Source: The Majalla

Until very recently, the political climate regarding Syria's relationships with Israel, US and the West improved considerably, and an agreement on the Golan Heights issue seemed likely. However, elections in Israel changed the whole rationale, and the main question now seems to be whether the West-Syria rapproachement is possible, without negotiations and the improvement of relations with Israel.

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By Chris Phillips.

The recent meeting between Obama and Netanyahu focused on the several issues that shape the relationship between the US and Israel in the Middle East. One issue in particular, the peace talks between Israel and Syria, was left out of the press conference that followed the meeting between the two leaders, leaving plenty of space for speculation regarding the future of the talks.

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By Chris Phillips. Source: www.majalla.com

After four years of isolation, Syria is back from the cold. Visitors from the US Congress and Western-aligned Arab states have all recently arrived in Damascus echoing President Obama's sentiment of engagement with the Ba'ath regime. Despite uncertainty surrounding the peace intentions of the new Israeli government, many in Washington hope Tel Aviv will soon resume peace talks with a seemingly compliant Damascus. By dangling the occupied Golan Heights as reward, it has been argued that President Bashar al-Asad can somehow be 'flipped' from his long-standing alliance with Iran, leading to a Sadat-esq realignment with the West. Yet such an assessment misunderstands the nature of the Iran-Syria relationship. With or without a peace with Israel, Damascus has no interest in forsaking Tehran.

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By Chris Phillips. Source: The Guardian Comment is Free

As the battle lines are drawn for the Lebanese elections in June, reports suggest the surprising kingmakers could be Lebanon's Armenians. This small community of barely 150,000 look set to abandon its traditional neutrality and back the Hezbollah-led opposition. While this appears to be yet another example of the complex interconfessional horse trading that has characterised Lebanese politics for years, it could be a sign that the state is finally taking slow steps away from its long-standing sectarianism.

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By Chris Phillips. Source: The Guardian Comment is Free

Nayla Tueni, the 26-year-old daughter of Gibran Tueni, the murdered Lebanese journalist and politician, has announced that she will follow him into politics by declaring her candidacy for the Lebanese elections in June. Having already emulated her father with a writing career at his an-Nahar newspaper, she now intends to address the issue of youth engagement by standing on a platform of putting, "young people's voices in parliament". However, the mountain of youth disenfranchisement in Lebanon and the wider Arab world is a huge one to climb. Despite Ms Tueni's laudable intentions, it will take more to surmount it than the election of one youthful MP.

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By Stephen Twigg. Source: Progress (www.progressonline.org.uk)

To comment on this article, please visit the FPC Blog: http://foreignpolicycentre.blogspot.com

On 10 December 2008, the world celebrates the 60th anniversary of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights but sadly there will not be much celebration in Tehran. Cyrus the Great, the Persian emperor from 559-529 BCE, is widely credited with producing the first known human rights charter and defending the rights of minorities. Yet in modern Iran women and minorities continue to be treated as second-class citizens.

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Date: Monday 18 June

Time: 6pm

Venue: Grand Committee Room, House of Commons, SW1

The Foreign Policy Centre, the Fabian Society and the Young Fabians jointly held a debate on the prospects for Middle East peace in the House of Commons.

Hilary Benn MP, International Development Secretary,was among the speakers, alongside expert voices on the conflict and how to end it.

The event launched the new Fabian freethinking paper How Peace Broke Out in the Middle East: A short history of the future by Tony Klug. The paper is generating an extraordinary and positive response from a wide range of commentators, academics and government and civil society voices.

Download Hilary Benn Speech (40 kilobyte PDF)

By Alex Bigham. Source: The Guardian Comment is Free

A new order is taking shape in the Middle East with Iran and Syria at its centre, but will human rights and democracy be the losers?

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By Chris Forster. Source: The Foreign Policy Centre

Can democracy stop terrorism? In George Bush's State of the Union address he reiterated his Administration's policy that Americans had to support democratic efforts in the Middle East as the best means to securing peace and defeating organisations such as al-Qaeda. Yet questions are already arising as to whether this is proving to be the most appropriate course of action.

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Download Democracy, Terrorism and the Middle East (20 kilobyte PDF)

By Rouzbeh Pirouz, Rouzbeh Pirouz. Source: Financial Times, 16 February 2005

The heartening spectacle of millions of Iraqis defying violence to go to the ballot box recalls similar scenes in Afghanistan and the Palestinian territories.

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By Richard Youngs, Richard Youngs. Source: Süddeutsche Zeitung, 15 December 2004

Please click on the PDF version to read this article in German.

Interim Prime Minister Allawi's attack on "spectator" nations during his recent visit to Brussels is a measure of the frustration felt over Europe's stance on Iraq. Since the US-led invasion of March 2003, European opponents of the war have chosen to remain on the sidelines of reconstruction. Despite the formal handover of power to an interim government this summer, a comprehensive EU plan for assistance has still not been formulated.

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Download the article (40 kilobyte PDF)

By Rouzbeh Pirouz, Rouzbeh Pirouz. Source: Open Democracy, 12 October 2004

The dark heart of Abu Ghraib reveals the contradiction between America's fine words and degrading deeds in Iraq, says Rouzbeh Pirouz.

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By Richard Youngs, Richard Youngs. Source: Carnegie Endowment , June 2004

Deliberation of democracy promotion in the Middle East intensified after the attacks of 9/11, and has been further energized by the transatlantic debates that were progeny of the Iraqi conflict. More intense debate over support for political change in the Middle East has forced the U.S. and Europe into a closer exploration of each other's actual and intended approaches to democracy promotion in the region.

http://www.ceip.org/files/pdf/CP45.YOUNGS.final.PDF

By Rouzbeh Pirouz, Rob Blackhurst.

Away from CNN dispatches from Gaza and Najaf, there are underreported signs that the Middle East - frozen politically and economically for decades - is thawing.

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By Rouzbeh Pirouz.

Perhaps it was fitting that I was in America when Ronald Reagan died. As is their habit, sometimes endearing and sometimes unnerving, Americans quickly moved to the gear they know best: overkill.

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By Jack Straw.

The Foreign Policy Centre's Civility Programme held its inaugural conference on 1 March, and was launched by the Foreign Secretary, Jack Straw. A full text of his speach is available below.

In addition, a PDF can be downloaded which includes highlights from the other speakers at the conference. This includes the EU's Marc Otte, Emma Bonino, and Fred Halliday from the LSE.

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Download the article (20 kilobyte PDF)

By Mark Leonard, Conrad Smewing, Mark Leonard. Source: Financial Times, 27 M arch 2003

Following the launch of their British Council-commissioned report 'Public Diplomay and the Middle East'- and against a background of conflict in Iraq- Leonard and Smewing argue that radical policy reform is needed to change Britain's standing in the Arab World.

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