By Firdevs Robinson.

FPC Senior Research Associate Firdevs Robinson gives a detailed and wide ranging account of the current challenges facing the long-running attempts to resolve the division and separation of Cyprus. She argues that unrecognised Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) is loosing hope that meaningful progress will be made in the near future and that as the Republic of Cyprus (Greek Cyprus) moves towards holding the EU Presidency, Brussels is no longer seen by the TRNC as a positive actor. She also draws attention to the growing rifts between the TRNC and Turkey on cultural and political lines, while exploring the current phase of tensions between Greek Cyprus and Turkey.

Download FPC Briefing: Cyprus: One step forward, two steps back (330 kilobyte PDF)

By Toby Greene, Prof. Alan Johnson.

As part of the FPC's new Israel and Palestine after the Arab Spring essay series Dr Toby Green and Prof Alan Johnson from BICOM (Alan is also a longstanding FPC Senior Research Associate) give us their take on the current state of the conflict. They argue that attempts to reach a two state solution are at a crisis and Palestinian refusal to enter negotiations without pre-conditions was a key problem. They argue that the US had made a policy error in insisting on a full-settlement freeze from which it later climbed down and that the Palestinian decision to go unilaterally to the UN was an error. They argue regional change put pressure on the Fatah and Hamas to form a unity deal and the regime changes in neighbours have removed important alliances. They argue that the international community needs to work with the political reality on the ground, focus on bottom-up not top-down initiatives, set realistic expectations and look for incremental steps forward.

Download FPC Briefing: How do we create a future for two-states (430 kilobyte PDF)

By John Lyndon.

As part of the FPC's new Israel and Palestine after the Arab Spring essay series John Lyndon, Executive director of OneVoice Europe (a peace building NGO operating with communities in both Israel and Palestine) gives us his take on the state of the conflict. He argues that the Arab Spring risks the rise of new governments more hostile to Israel but that shifts to the right in Israeli policy have been 'insular' and 'troubling'. He argues that the last year has seen Israel and the international community disempower the moderate Palestinian leadership, through continued settlement building and the rejection of the statehood option, while the prisoner transfer agreement following the Shalit release strengthened Hamas. He believes support for the two state solution and hope for negotiations are at an all-time low but calls for an active response from civil-society.

Download FPC Briefing: Israel, Palestine, and the "Urgency of Now" (290 kilobyte PDF)

By Marc Herzog.

FPC Research Associate Marc Herzog explores the development of Turkey's Foreign Policy and its response to the Arab Spring, setting out the challenges faced and those still to come.

Download FPC Briefing: Weathering the crazy seasons (310 kilobyte PDF)

By Adam Hug. Source: Politics First Magazine

As the coalition government (at least in its Conservative majority) on balance appears to show a greater preference than its predecessor for bilateral rather than multilateral approaches to international engagement, it is perhaps time for a brief re-appraisal of Britain's approach and objectives at the largest multilateral grouping of them all, the UN.

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By Gerard Russell. Source: Politics.co.uk

As Libya approaches a new dawn we must appreciate that some things will go wrong, but there is an advisory role for foreign powers to fulfil.

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By Andrew Southam.

FPC research associate Andrew Southam explores some of the key issues in US-EU judicial co-operation.

Download FPC Briefing: Where next for EU-US judicial co-operation? (330 kilobyte PDF)

By Alex Bigham. Source: Yorkshire Post

From Nick Clegg to Ed Miliband, via David Davis and Ed Balls, Yorkshire's MPs could never be accused of being shrinking violets. But the Foreign Secretary and Richmond MP, William Hague, could do with a period of time out of the spotlight.

From the infamous pictures in a baseball cap, via his dealings with Lord Ashcroft, to the rumours about his private life, he has often struggled to manage his own image. Which perhaps makes it the more surprising that he has proven to be such an effective political survivor.

His time as Foreign Secretary has not been without controversy. Questions over Hague's authority have focussed on how the Government handled the initial period of the uprising in Libya.

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By Andrew Southam.

New FPC Research Associate Andrew Southam gives us his take on the controversial 2003 UK-US extradition treaty, whether criticism is valid and what can be done to improve the situation.

Download FPC Briefing: Do we need to rethink UK-US extradition (390 kilobyte PDF)

By Tim Flatman.

Tim Flatman gives his take on the challenging situation in Sudan's Abyei region and makes the case for more robust US and UK engagement.

Download Abyei: Beyond expediency, towards sustainable peace (230 kilobyte PDF)

By Dr Andrew Monaghan.

FPC Senior Research Associate Andrew Monaghan gives his take on the historical and political challenges to be overcome by both the UK and Russia in order to improve their relationship.

Download UK-Russia Relations: a Bad Case of Mutual Misunderstandings (330 kilobyte PDF)

By Stephen Minas.

New FPC Research Associate Stephen Minas analyses the China's evolving approach to climate change negotiations from Copenhagen to Cancun and beyond.

Download FPC Briefing: Crossing the river – China and Climate Change (360 kilobyte PDF)

By Adam Hug, Feng Zhang.

This third paper in the Kazakhstan at a Crossroads series explores some of Kazakhstan's international relationships with the EU, Russia and China.

Download Kazakhstan at a Crossroads: Kazakhstan and the world (360 kilobyte PDF)

By Hema Kotecha.

This new FPC Briefing by Hema Kotecha explores some of the major challenges facing the Otunbaeva-led interim government and the international community in Kyrgyzstan after the April uprising and June's ethnic violence.

Download FPC Briefing: The costs of believing you are not in the Game (260 kilobyte PDF)

By Ella Rolfe.

The death of the 300th British soldier in Afghanistan is, as David Cameron pointed out, no more or less tragic than the 299 who have died before him since 2001. It does, however, come at an interesting domestic political juncture for Britain's new government.

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By Dr David Tickner, Head of Freshwater Programmes, WWF-UK, Josephine Osikena.

Understandably, the world has become increasingly preoccupied with risk and insecurity. The uncertainties produced by global challenges such as financial crises, economic slowdowns, health pandemics, the international narcotics trade, terrorism and conflict and indeed the impact of climate change are just a few pressing examples causing concern. However, the earth's environmental resources are increasingly under enormous strain and nowhere is this stress more apparent than in the case of the earth's finite supplies of freshwater.

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By Luke Bailey.

In this new FPC Briefing, Luke Bailey explains that more than 740,000 people are killed as a result of armed violence every year. Many others are assaulted, forcibly displaced or otherwise left with lasting psychological and physical injuries. Through these and other consequences, armed violence generates an estimated 'global cost of insecurity' of US$400bn per annum. Supporters of an Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) seek to reduce the burden of armed violence through negotiating a global, legally binding instrument to regulate the trade in conventional arms.

Download Towards an Arms Trade Treaty by Luke Bailey (300 kilobyte PDF)

By Zeynep Dereli.

New Senior Research Associate Zeynep Dereli gives her take on how Turkey needs to reformulate its approach to energy to create an outward looking strategy where energy policy and foreign policy work together towards common economic and political goals.

Download FPC Briefing: Toward a Grander Turkish Energy Strategy (320 kilobyte PDF)

By Wahied Wahdat-Hagh, Tahirih Danesh.

FPC Senior Research Associate Tahirih Danesh and Wahied Wahdat-Hagh, Senior Fellow at European Foundation for Democracy have produced a hard hitting and challenging briefing that explores the way in which the Iran regime's revolutionary character defines the way it operates both within and beyond its borders.

Download FPC Briefing: Terroracracy (220 kilobyte PDF)

By Tim Summers.

FPC Research Associate Tim Summers has written a new FPC Briefing that explores China's response to the shifting dynamics of global power and the implications of this for the rest of the international community.

Download FPC Briefing: Global Shifts and China's Response (170 kilobyte PDF)

By Anna Owen.

A version of this article first appeared in Progress:

http://www.progressonline.org.uk/Magazine/article.asp?a=5001

Democracy has failed in Afghanistan. That statement can't make easy reading for Barack Obama, Gordon Brown or indeed anyone that believes in democracy. But has democracy failed irreparably and irreversibly in Afghanistan, or was it simply always the wrong solution? What are the reasons for the current political situation? And what are the implications of this for Afghanistan itself, for the region and for the international military, political and civilian strategies that are currently being pursued there?

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By Ella Rolfe.

Recent curbs on civil liberties are attempts to grasp slipping control over population

While Pakistan may seem to be descending into a pitched battle between state and Taliban, the current power relations are much more nuanced than this. To be sure, the Pakistani authorities are engaged in a large military operation against the Taliban in the country's north-western tribal areas; but there is a power struggle within the Pakistani polity as well. And the army, not the civilian government, is firmly in charge of efforts against militancy.

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By Chris Phillips. Source: Guardian Comment is Free

To view original article visit: http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/oct/01/turkey-syria-friendship

Just over a decade ago, Turkey's army gathered on its southern border in anticipation of a war with Syria that was narrowly avoided. Just over a fortnight ago, the two neighbours signed accords allowing for visa-free passage between the two states. Syria's president, Bashar al-Assad, now describes Turkey as Syria's best friend, while Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey's prime minister, publicly calls Syrians his brothers.

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By Chris Phillips. Source: The Majalla

Until very recently, the political climate regarding Syria's relationships with Israel, US and the West improved considerably, and an agreement on the Golan Heights issue seemed likely. However, elections in Israel changed the whole rationale, and the main question now seems to be whether the West-Syria rapproachement is possible, without negotiations and the improvement of relations with Israel.

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By Chris Phillips.

The recent meeting between Obama and Netanyahu focused on the several issues that shape the relationship between the US and Israel in the Middle East. One issue in particular, the peace talks between Israel and Syria, was left out of the press conference that followed the meeting between the two leaders, leaving plenty of space for speculation regarding the future of the talks.

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By Chris Phillips. Source: www.majalla.com

After four years of isolation, Syria is back from the cold. Visitors from the US Congress and Western-aligned Arab states have all recently arrived in Damascus echoing President Obama's sentiment of engagement with the Ba'ath regime. Despite uncertainty surrounding the peace intentions of the new Israeli government, many in Washington hope Tel Aviv will soon resume peace talks with a seemingly compliant Damascus. By dangling the occupied Golan Heights as reward, it has been argued that President Bashar al-Asad can somehow be 'flipped' from his long-standing alliance with Iran, leading to a Sadat-esq realignment with the West. Yet such an assessment misunderstands the nature of the Iran-Syria relationship. With or without a peace with Israel, Damascus has no interest in forsaking Tehran.

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By Chris Phillips. Source: The Guardian Comment is Free

As the battle lines are drawn for the Lebanese elections in June, reports suggest the surprising kingmakers could be Lebanon's Armenians. This small community of barely 150,000 look set to abandon its traditional neutrality and back the Hezbollah-led opposition. While this appears to be yet another example of the complex interconfessional horse trading that has characterised Lebanese politics for years, it could be a sign that the state is finally taking slow steps away from its long-standing sectarianism.

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By Stephen Twigg, Adam Hug.

With an aerial bombardment, Israeli troops on the streets of Gaza, a humanitarian crisis and frustrated diplomats, the parallels between the current crisis and the events of summer 2006 are pretty clear. That history has repeated itself with added ferocity and loss of life is testament to the diplomatic and political failure to which Israel, the Palestinians, the US, EU and neighbouring states have all been party. The bitter cycle of rocket attacks and economic blockade set against a backdrop of warring factions and glacial progress towards a final status agreement gives little credit all round.

The pressure from within the Israeli Government for mission creep to achieve the complete obliteration of Hamas appears to be subsiding as Egyptian and French diplomacy begins to make some progress, the scale of the humanitarian crisis and its global political impact becomes clearer to the Israelis and the task of finding suitable Hamas targets becomes progressively more difficult. As hopes of a possible resolution begin to flicker into view, thoughts are turning to what must be done to prevent this happening again.

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By Anna Owen.

To comment on this article, please visit the FPC Blog: http://foreignpolicycentre.blogspot.com

John Hutton chose Remembrance Day to deliver his maiden speech(1) as Defence Secretary, and as the subject, a conflict described only just over a year ago as Britain's 'forgotten war'(2): the conflict in Afghanistan. In an address titled 'Afghanistan – Worth the Sacrifice,' Mr Hutton asserted that the war may yet become the 'defining conflict of this century.'

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By Dick Leonard. Source: The European Voice

It is ten years since the European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP) was launched, at an Anglo-French 'summit' at St. Malo, and there is now precious little to be shown for it. The French presidency of the EU is acutely aware of the failure of the policy, and is actively preparing a new European Security Strategy which will be presented for adoption at the December meeting of the European Council.

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