Progressive Thinking for A Global Age
Brazil - Presidential Message: Commitment to sustainable developmentBy Thiago de Aragao.
At the beginning of each legislative session in Brazil, at the opening of the Congress, the president should send a Message and plan of government to the parliament, explaining the country's situation and requesting necessary actions.
Lula's tumour upsets Brazilian politicsBy Thiago de Aragao.
It is as yet not known what stage former president Lula's laryngeal tumor is at. However, the mere hypothesis that he is seriously ill is a strong blow to national politics.
The Brazilian government's problem is its own base; not the oppositionBy Thiago de Aragao.
The Brazilian government has an expressive voting majority in National Congress. Nominally, there are 400 in the House and 62 in the Senate. However, this does not mean that life is easy in Parliament. Allied dissatisfaction and appetites make mobilization of this majority difficult and voting on some issues of interest to the Planalto Palace extremely expensive.
Brazil: Supreme Court may rule on profit of companies co-connected or controlled from abroadBy Thiago de Aragao.
Ruling on the Direct Unconstitutionality Action (ADI) # 2.588, which provides for the levying of IR (Inland Revenue) and CSLL (Social Contribution over Profit) applicable to profits obtained by companies controlled from or co-connected abroad will be on Brazil's Supreme Federal Court agenda this Thursday.
Brazil: Palocci's exit suggests new modelBy Thiago de Aragao.
It may seem strange that a strong and popular government and one with an immense support base would sacrifice its most important minister due to allegations that don't even pertain to the government itself. Well, it really is very strange.
Inflation, growth and foreign exchange: Risks and problemsBy Thiago de Aragao.
Amongst the risks and problems that surround the Brazilian situation, the top three are: inflation, growth and foreign exchange. Thiago de Aragao assesses each of these in a new article for the Foreign Policy Centre.
Brazil: Rousseff and her trip to ChinaBy Thiago de Aragao.
There are those who wanted to discuss which would be most important for Brazilian foreign policy: a visit of Barack Obama to Brazil or a visit by Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff to China.
Brazil : A dehydrated opposition and one with no discourseBy Thiago de Aragao.
Last week in Brazil, a new party was created: the PSD. This is the 28th party to be registered at the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court. In the Brazilian Congress alone, the opposition (DEM and PPS) lost 14 representatives and one senator to this new party.
Brazil: Review of the second week of the Presidential raceBy Thiago de Aragao.
In the second week of the campaign you can see that the exchange of barbs between the candidates contesting the Brazilian Presidential Palace has increased.
Brazil 2010: A profile of José SerraBy Thiago de Aragao.
In this new article, the FPC's Senior Research Associate based in Brazil, Thiago de Aragao, provides a profile of the key ideas of José Serra, one of the main candidates in this year's Presidential election.
Brazil 2010: A profile of Dilma RousseffBy Cristiano Noronha, Thiago de Aragao.
In this new article, the FPC's Senior Research Associate based in Brazil, Thiago de Aragao, provides a profile of the key ideas of Dilma Rousseff, one of the main candidates in this year's Presidential election.
The Chilean Second Round ElectionsBy Thiago de Aragao.
Sebastián Piñera, candidate for the Center-Right movement Alianza por Chile (Alliance for Chile), secured 44.03% of valid votes and will dispute the 2nd round against Eduardo Frei, representing the center-left coalition Concertación (Concertation), which obtained 29.62% of the presidential vote.
Brazil aiming for a leading role in CopenhagenBy Thiago de Aragao.
Brazil, along with France, intends to leverage strong engagement from industrialized and developing countries in order to define bold agreements for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2020. Both countries want an 80% reduction in the emission of greenhouse gases compared to levels in 1990. They have also agreed to a reduction of at least 50% by 2050.
The significance of Venezuela's admission to MercosurBy Thiago de Aragao.
The decision of the Senate Foreign Relations Commission to approve Venezuela's admission to Mercosur has brought the South American country very close to becoming a full member of the regional bloc. With the project having now passed through the Chamber, only Senate endorsement is required for Brazil to approve Venezuela's membership, which should take place this week. Venezuela's admission to the bloc has already been approved by the Argentine and Uruguayan Congresses. Paraguay is awaiting the Brazilian decision before voting on the membership protocol.
Tension in Honduras seizes the week in Latin AmericaBy Thiago de Aragao.
Predictably enough, the current situation in Honduras has been the main source of news in Latin America during the last week. Manuel Zelaya's return has yet to be explained in full, clear detail, with Brazil taking an active role in the entire affair.
The choice of French fighter aircraft in Brazil and its impact on Latin AmericaBy Thiago de Aragao.
The past week in Latin America has been pretty busy due to the repercussions of President Lula's comments during a visit by the French President, Nicolas Sarkozy. Besides being the guest of honour and besides the fact that it is the year of France in Brazil, Sarkozy came with two missions: the first one was simple and the second was relatively difficult. The simple mission was to carry out something that was already or partially agreed upon: the purchase of submarines and helicopters. The difficult mission would be to turn things around regarding the fighters Brazil intends to buy.
Latin American DisturbancesBy Thiago de Aragao.
Latin America is once again the scene of political disturbances after some months of relative stillness. The situation in Honduras, which has brought the idea of military coup d'état back to the continent, is yet to be clearly defined. Roberto Micheletti's non-recognised government has been very tough on the sanctions threats it has received.
The coup in Honduras points to a new scenario for Latin AmericaBy Carlos Bellini, Daniel Lledo, Thiago de Aragao.
This article presents an evaluation of the State coup that occurred in Honduras last Sunday (27 June) and its possible internal consequences as well as a new scenario that is unfolding in Latin America.
The Chinese invasion in Latin AmericaBy Thiago de Aragao.
The economic growth that many countries in Latin America have gone through in the past few years has brought many positive aspects. Besides the obvious aspects, such as an improvement in the social condition, economic stability and planning capacity, among others, the economic expansion also brought new issues for which Latin-American countries should find a standpoint.
Obama: The first hundred days and a new stance with Latin AmericaBy Thiago de Aragao.
Elected in the crowning of a historical moment, President Barack Obama took many positive steps during his first one hundred days of administration. With a high approval rate (more than 60%), Obama has managed to obtain more than conveying confidence to the American people. He is also trying to change the global feeling towards the United States. The USA and the rest of the world have shown significant signs of recovery from the economic crisis. This has certainly played a crucial role in assuring that Obama's charisma is still an efficient fuel for success in the countries and events to which the president is invited.
Politics and economy as individual actorsBy Thiago de Aragao.
Politically speaking, the impact of the international economic crisis is expected to be extremely relative in Latin America. Contrary to what happens elsewhere in the world, here, political and economic issues are easily shifted apart.
Latin America and the initiatives to perpetuate powerBy Thiago de Aragao.
Latin America is going through a moment of perpetuation of power, but this cannot by any means be seen as something new. We have had examples, such as Pinochet in Chile, Perón in Argentina and Bordaberry in Uruguay, among others. However, these dictators and "eternal presidents" lived in an era when democracy was not developed as it is today. Obviously we cannot consider some Latin-American countries as developed democracies, but we must recognize that they are more advanced that they were in previous years.
Higlights from Latin America in 2008By Thiago de Aragao.
Economic and political highlights from Latin America in 2008, including obervations on the impact of the global economic crisis for regional economics, politics and geopolitics from FPC Senior Research Associate Thiago de Aragao.
THE HIGH DESTRUCTION POTENTIAL OF ARGENTINA'S CRISISBy Thiago de Aragao.
Riding a rollercoaster, being afraid and knowing that everything will be fine in the end is rather exciting and generates some healthy adrenaline. Riding another rollercoaster, with loose tracks and poor infrastructure, and nevertheless managing to be safe in the end, is a priceless lesson for the future.
Santa Cruz de la Sierra legitimizes institutional crisisBy Thiago de Aragao.
Nobody should be surprised at the result of the referendum on autonomy held on Sunday, May 04, in the province of Santa Cruz de la Sierra, Bolivia. The highly anticipated "Yes" victory, to be confirmed by the end of the week when the vote's official results are due to be released, has led to reactions by Bolivia's central government and by the Santa Cruz government too, which did not expect a different result.
The difficulties Venezuela is bound to experienceBy Thiago de Aragao.
Oil prices at $120 per barrel allow Hugo Chávez to do many things he would not normally be capable of. Venezuela, historically dependent on their greatest blessing, oil surpluses, has never developed other industries to help the country grow stronger, more developed and self-sufficient. Huge oil reserves have made the Venezuelan government and high society fond of imports.
Monthly Review - The Waters of MarchBy Thiago de Aragao.
This March was one of the most exciting months in the latest years as far as South America is concerned. The diplomatic row between Colombia and Ecuador, with a gratuitous cameo by Venezuela, was certainly the month's greatest event. The troop movements, the hard stance taken by Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez, and the apologies for invading Ecuadorian soil on the part of Colombian president Álvaro Uribe have left their mark in the continent's diplomacy this month.
A Diplomatic Crisis and the Players' PerformanceBy Thiago de Aragao.
Latin America came to a halt during recent weeks, to witness the crisis between Colombia and Ecuador, featuring an over-the-top intromission by Hugo Chávez's Venezuela.
Hugo Chavez's VenezuelaBy Thiago de Aragao.
A special report from Thiago de Aragão on travelling in the entourage Of President Lula of Brazil to visit the unique Venezuela of President Hugo Chavez.
Download Hugo Chavez's Venezuela (60 kilobyte PDF)
Latin America: Events in OctoberBy Thiago de Aragao.
Beyond any doubt, the election of Cristina Kirchner in Argentina stood out as the most important political event last October.
Latin America: Events in SeptemberBy Thiago de Aragao.
September saw a series of political developments across the South American continent. No new events emerged, however, and instead progress was made on issues that had arisen in previous months.
Mexico HereafterBy Thiago de Aragao.
After the elections of the July 2nd, the situation in Mexico gives the impression of being better, but it is just an impression.
ALAN GARCIA, PRESIDENT OF PERU - How it happened and what it meansBy Thiago de Aragao, Thiago de Aragao.
Date: Monday 3 July 2006
Alan Garcia's Background
The victory of the social democrat Alan Garcia in Peru is of no less concern for the South American community than the victory of the extreme-nationalist Ollanta Humala would have been. The reason for such concern, besides the ruinous government of Alan Garcia between 1985 and 1990 in Peru, is the image it presents to the world. In recent speeches, Garcia stated he would not hesitate to close the Congress if his projects were opposed.
Bolivia: Morales' pledges will stall progress and co-operation in Latin AmericaBy Thiago de Aragao, Thiago de Aragao.
South America's poorest country is back at the centre of attention in the region. Evo Morales' historic electoral victory has signaled the onset of a government that combines indigenous nationalism and a typically Latin American left-wing populism. Bolivia has always been tightly dependent on foreign investments to compensate for its managerial ineptitude and an inability to take advantage of its own natural resources. This has fostered an influx of foreign capital which has contributed significantly to the maintenance of the country, albeit in a precarious fashion.
Download related table (20 kilobyte PDF)
The West must recognise Latin America's new leadersBy James Royston, James Royston. Source: Diplo Magazine
The West must recognise the legitimacy of Latin America's new generation of democratically elected leaders, despite their divergent politics.
Brazilian Political Scenarios: 21st May 2006By Thiago de Aragao, Thiago de Aragao.
Recent events in Brazilian politics are analysed, and potential future scenarios are assessed.
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Brazilian Political Scenarios: 14th May 2006By Thiago de Aragao, Thiago de Aragao.
Recent events in Brazilian politics are analysed, and potential future scenarios are assessed.
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Brazilian Political Scenarios: 8th May 2006By Thiago de Aragao, Thiago de Aragao.
Recent events in Brazilian politics are analysed, and potential future scenarios are assessed.
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Brazilian Political Scenarios: 10th April 2006By Thiago de Aragao, Thiago de Aragao.
Recent events in Brazilian politics are analysed, and potential future scenarios are assessed.
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Brazilian Politics: 2nd April 2006By Thiago de Aragao, Thiago de Aragao.
A review of the past week in Brazilian politics.
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South American Political Reforms TableBy Thiago de Aragao, Thiago de Aragao.
Thiago de Aragao lays out the proposed reforms of nine South American states, and explains their characteristics.
Download the article (20 kilobyte PDF)