Tuesday 3 December 2024
An in person conference convening academics, experts, civil society, policymakers and parliamentarians to share perspectives on the future of the Gulf-MENA and how the UK Government can approach the region.
Below are the session summaries. You can read more about those speaking at the conference here.
Session One (10.30-11.45)
‘Order and disorder in a context of global instability: where do things stand in December 2024?’
The Middle East is in a period of profound instability, with tensions escalating and the risk of full-scale regional conflict ever-present. In this context, traditional sources of ‘order’ – whether external states or institutions – have appeared unable to respond. This panel will examine the geopolitical context and diplomatic landscape in the region, discussing the role of traditional and new actors. The implications of a second Trump Presidency and how the UK should approach the region through its foreign policy will be explored.
Speakers include
Sir William Patey (former British Ambassador to Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Sudan and Chair of the Labour Middle East Council); Jasmine El Gamal (former Middle East advisor at the Pentagon and consultant on international affairs and national security); Professor Raihan Ismail (Professor of Contemporary Islamic Studies, Oxford University); The Rt Hon Alistair Burt (Pro-Chancellor, Lancaster University and former Minister of State for the Middle East at the FCDO and Minister of State at DFID.).
Session Two (12.00-13.15)
‘Examining conflict, cooperation and co-existence in the Gulf-MENA region’
The deadly October 7 attacks by Hamas in Israel and Israel’s devastating bombardment of Gaza that has followed has created a profound shift in regional, and global, politics. At a time of profound regional instability, panellists will explore where relations lie, where there are sources of cooperation or conflict, and how tensions could be mitigated moving forward. Learning from other contexts, speakers will also draw on insights from previous conflicts and how the UK and other institutions can engage in conflict-settings most effectively.
Speakers include
Professor Simon Mabon (Professor of International Politics and Director of the SEPAD project, University of Lancaster); Dr Shabnam Holliday (Associate Professor in International Relations, University of Plymouth and SEPAD Fellow); Dr Rahaf Aldoughli (Lecturer in Middle East and North African studies at Lancaster University); and Dania Akkad (Senior Investigations Editor, Middle East Eye).
Session Three (14.15-15.30)
‘Human (in)security in the Gulf-MENA region: understanding and addressing new and emerging threats in a context of crisis’
Global and regional instability has a catastrophic impact on individuals’ lives and unresolved armed conflicts have severe implications for human development. In the Gulf-MENA region a range of threats, including environmental, economic and health inequalities, pose a profound challenge. In this panel, speakers will explore human insecurity in a context of crisis and how this could be addressed by the UK through its foreign and development policy, by multilateral institutions such as the UN and World Bank, and through regional alliances.
Speakers include
Anna Chernova (Senior Policy Advisor, Oxfam and Foreign Policy Centre Senior Research Fellow); Elly Nott (Co-Founder of the Nott Foundation); Zoe Swanwick (Researcher at the Coalition for Global Prosperity); and, Dr Edward Wastnidge (Senior Lecturer in Politics and International Studies at the Open University and Deputy Director of the SEPAD project).
Session Four (15.45-17.00)
‘Political agency and expression: the role of individuals in shaping the future of the Gulf-MENA region’
In 2024, politics across the Gulf-MENA has become increasingly precarious and the risk of violence and conflict escalating has increased. Despite this context, people across the region continue to exert political agency. This session will look at how citizens exert free expression and drive change as well as how the voices of those on the ground, including grassroots activists and journalists, can be central to imagining the future of the region.
Speakers include
Dr Tahirih Danesh (FPC Senior Advisor, Lecturer in Human Rights Law & Executive Director of the Persia Educational Foundation); Joey Shea (MENA Researcher, Human Rights Watch); Mahsa Alimardani (Senior MENA Programme Officer at ARTICLE 19); Drewery Dyke (Senior Research Fellow at Foreign Policy Centre, Chairperson of Rights Realization Centre); and, Fiona O’Brien (Director of London Bureau, Reporters Without Borders).
Background Information
In 2024 politics across the Middle East has become increasingly precarious, and the reverberations are felt beyond the region’s borders. The region is in a constant state of flux, with new developments and escalations emerging rapidly that have a devastating impact on the lives of those living in the region.
Last year’s deadly October 7th terrorist attacks by Hamas in Israel and Israel’s ongoing, devastating bombardment of Gaza continues to dominate headlines worldwide. Israel’s actions have provoked global outrage and led to calls to suspend arms sales, as well as ongoing proceedings against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) with relation to potential violations of the Genocide Convention; a charge that Israel has rejected.[1]
Violence has not been contained to Israel and Gaza and there has long been a fear that war would spread across the Middle East and beyond. There have been strikes on the Israeli-Occupied Golan heights, Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, Iranian drone and missile attacks on Israel, and Israel’s response, strikes on Israel from Hezbollah as well as Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon and Syria.[2] In October 2024, Israel launched a ground offensive in Lebanon following its assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.[3]
Erstwhile alliances and diplomatic initiatives are under increased pressure, notably the Abraham Accords and the Saudi-Iran diplomatic agreement, while the Saudi-Israel normalisation process has seemingly halted entirely. As tensions continue to heighten, political leaders in the US and Europe have continued to call for de-escalation and calm to little avail.
In this light, many of the foundations of regional order across the Middle East in recent years appear to be profoundly unstable. This one day conference will bring together a range of academic experts, policymakers, and civil society representatives to reflect on the future of politics in the Middle East. Through different panels and discussions, participants will examine the ways in which regional order has evolved, the (re)construction of transnational alliances, the role of external actors, human (in)security, and what can be done to prevent further escalation.
[1] International Court of Justice, 29 December 2023 https://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/192/192-20231229-pre-01-00-en.pdf
[2] The Guardian, 29 March 2024 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/29/syria-israel-airstrike-soldiers-killed-aleppo; Reuters, 25 August 2024 https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-strikes-hezbollah-targets-lebanon-military-says-2024-08-25/ ; and House of Commons Library, 30 July 2024 https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9930/
[3] BBC News, 1 October 2024 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czxgyzq7z2ro; and BBC News, 28 September 2024 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1wnp0vln19o