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Dr Ed Turner

Senior Research Fellow

Ed Turner is Reader in Politics at Aston University, Birmingham, UK, where he is also Co-Director of the Aston Centre for Europe. He is Acting Chair of the International Association for the Study of German Politics. His research is principally focused on contemporary Germany, ranging from sub-national politics to its European policy and political parties. He is currently working on a book on the recent developments of its Social Democratic Party, the SPD, is part of a joint project assessing the territorial impact of the Covid-19 pandemic upon relations between different levels of government in Germany and other countries, and has received funding for work on the state of Germany’s relations with the V4 countries. He spent over two years recently on secondment to the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office of the UK Government

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A poll in mid-August found that just 19% of Germans were satisfied with the Government’s work, compared to 79% dissatisfied.[1] According to the same poll, new elections would see the SPD score 16%, a long way off the Christian Democratic (CDU/CSU) opposition (29%) and most worryingly the far-right Alternative for Germany (22%), with its mix of xenophobia and distinctly accommodating poise towards Putin’s Russia. Germany’s economy is not doing well – with a real risk of entering recession for the second time this year – and the Government has been beset by conflict.[2] In particular, the Greens and FDP have been at each other’s throats, with the FDP, after a series of dreadful regional election results, especially assertive with its coalition partners and resisting most projects that could increase Government spending. There was an attempt at a ‘reset’ at a cabinet away day in August, but low-level argument continues. In this context, it will be hard for German leaders to put domestic matters, in particular economic preoccupations, to one side at the Summit. As with other G20 members, it faces something of a dilemma in relations with India – seeing substantial and much-needed opportunities for trade, but with concerns (notably on the Green side) about human rights issues in the background. This dilemma is, of course, even more sharply present in the case of China, and the Government’s new China Strategy (published in July 2023) has a fair degree of ambiguity about how it will walk this particular tightrope.[3] Of course, Germany will line up with its allies – including the US and the UK – to try to secure some sort of constructive statement on the war in Ukraine, but that seems an unlikely prospect. Germany has set out a particular priority to promote the global expansion of renewable energy, and keep the goal of restricting warming to 1.5 degrees within reach, requiring a tripling of renewable capacity in the G20 by 2030, and a doubling of progress in energy efficiency measures.[4] The country’s delegation will also be pressing for progress at the Summit on the UN Sustainable Development Goals (a framework which German policy-makers very much endorse). Olaf Scholz, in a pre-Summit interview, pointed to a desire for “fair partnerships” with the Global South, recognising the particular responsibility of former colonial powers, including Germany.[5] As an example, he suggested that, in contrast to China, the West could look not simply to extract raw materials from the Global South, but process them in the countries themselves, to mutual benefit; this alternative offer could also help reduce growing Chinese influence there. Notwithstanding India’s energetic presidency, with rifts notably over the war in Ukraine, but also Chinese frictions with other G20 members (including India), there are reasons to be circumspect about what the Summit can achieve. This will not be helped by the major challenges the German Government faces back at home. Dr Ed Turner is a Reader in Politics at Aston University and Co-Director of the Aston Centre for Europe.  [1] Ellen Ehni, Support for traffic lights at a new low, tagesschau, August 2023,[2] Maria Martinex, Gloomy Ifo fuels fears of second German recession in a year, Reuters, August 2023,[3] Bernhard Bartsch and Claudia Wessling, Germany’s new China strategy: Ambitious language, ambiguous course, MERICS, July 2023,[4] Federal Ministry of Economy and Climate Protection, Negotiations in the G7 and G20 on the global expansion of renewable energies, August 2023,[5] Deutschlandfunk, Interview of the Week: Scholz still believes the G20 is important despite the “BRICS” expansion - “shaping the future on an equal footing and offering partnerships”, September 2023, [post_title] => Germany’s priorities going into the G20 Summit [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => open [ping_status] => open [post_password] => [post_name] => germanys-priorities-going-into-the-g20-summit [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2023-09-07 10:00:39 [post_modified_gmt] => 2023-09-07 09:00:39 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => post [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw )[1] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 6741 [post_author] => 33 [post_date] => 2023-02-24 11:55:40 [post_date_gmt] => 2023-02-24 10:55:40 [post_content] => For anyone interested in contemporary Germany, the war in Ukraine has had a huge impact. First and foremost, Germany has had to rethink some fundamental tenets of its post-war foreign policy: a sense that prioritising peace in Europe meant prioritising peace with Russia no longer worked, and the idea that change could be achieved by trading with Russia has also been comprehensively discredited (posing some difficult questions for Germany’s policy towards China, too).  Germany has shown a willingness to send heavy weapons to Ukraine - it has exported arms in the past, but not with the expectation of them being used against Russia. The German-favoured division of labour amongst NATO members, where Germany was more engaged in diplomacy and economic support for nations in conflict rather than tasked with a harder military edge, has come to an end.  There remains debate, however, about the extent to which Germany has really had a rethink: the domestic opposition, and countries to Germany’s east, are sceptical about the extent to which the country has lived up to the expectations raised by Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s “watershed moment” (Zeitenwende) speech in the federal parliament after war broke out. The crisis has also posed other challenges: to Germany’s economic model, arguably dependent upon cheap energy supplies from Russia; and on domestic political cohesion and indeed on keeping the ruling coalition together (with Scholz’s SPD more cautious towards Russia than his partners in the liberals and Greens). Lastly in the sphere of public opinion, the old divide between eastern and western Germany has been exacerbated, with easterners more sceptical about supporting Ukraine than their counterparts in the west. [post_title] => One year on: Rethinking Germany’s defence and foreign policy [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => open [ping_status] => open [post_password] => [post_name] => one-year-on-rethinking-germanys-defence-and-foreign-policy [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2023-02-24 12:48:16 [post_modified_gmt] => 2023-02-24 11:48:16 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => post [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw )[2] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 5439 [post_author] => 33 [post_date] => 2021-01-14 16:58:11 [post_date_gmt] => 2021-01-14 15:58:11 [post_content] => This Friday and Saturday will see the twice-delayed Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) party conference finally take place virtually. On the Saturday a leader to replace Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (colloquially known as AKK) will be elected. AKK’s time as leader was not a happy one, and she stepped down after being unable to assert her authority over the CDU’s state party in Thuringia, where its parliamentarians had voted with the far-right Alternative for Germany on the choice of a new Minister President there. Yet since AKK stepped down, much has changed, making the conference unpredictable. Three candidates were quickly out of the blocks: Armin Laschet, the Minister President of North Rhine Westphalia, Norbert Röttgen, Chair of the Bundestag’s Foreign Affairs Committee, and Friedrich Merz, one-time parliamentary leader of the CDU and AKK’s opponent in 2018, only losing very narrowly after a notably poor speech. Laschet was endorsed by AKK’s other opponent of 2018, Federal Health Minister Jens Spahn. Yet since then, COVID-19 has had a profound impact on the respective fortunes of the runners and riders. Laschet has had a pretty wretched crisis. His pressure to remove restrictions more quickly than Chancellor Merkel wished has not stood the test of time, blaming outbreaks in meat processing plants in his state on the Bulgarians and Romanians who worked there made him look nasty, and images of his mask dangling beneath his nose did little for his standing. By contrast, Spahn is reportedly kicking himself for tying his colours to Laschet’s mast, having cut an impressive figure as a minister during the crisis (at least until the start of the vaccination programme – on which the jury is still out), and become the CDU’s most popular politician apart from Merkel. Röttgen was a surprise entrant to the contest – his decision to stand often attributed to a desire to raise his profile and secure the job of Foreign Minister in a future government. But he has become a possible recipient of backing from CDU members who like the idea of continuing with Merkel’s centrist political positioning, but feel underwhelmed by Laschet. Merz – by virtue of not holding elected office – has had a low profile in the pandemic, and a policy platform of distancing the CDU from Merkel’s approach has lost attractiveness given her exceptional popularity at present. Commentators tend to say that whereas Merz has strong support amongst the party’s grassroots, Laschet will probably have more backing from delegates. But perhaps the digital format will mix things up here too, reducing in some way the pressure to vote along lines pre-agreed with the state party. It seems very likely that, whoever wins, there will not be a quick decision to install them as the chancellor candidate of the CDU/CSU for the next federal election in September 2021. The leader of the CSU (the Bavarian wing of German Christian Democracy, organised as a separate party but with a joint group with the CDU in the Bundestag), Bavarian Minister President Markus Söder, has had a pretty good crisis. He has consistently supported tougher restrictions and his popularity ratings put him behind Merkel, narrowly ahead of Spahn, and streets ahead of Armin Laschet. On the two occasions when the CSU has fielded the CDU/CSU’s chancellor candidate things have not gone well for them – the rhetoric needed to be a popular Bavarian Minister President, celebrating all things Bavarian and embracing conservative social values, tends not to go down so well outside the region. However, Söder has struck a more consensual tone, and has been at particular pains in recent months to emphasise his green credentials. Söder has not ruled out a run, and some interpreted his demotion of Bavaria’s health minister last week as a statement of intent. Jens Spahn has also not ruled out a tilt at the top job, and the Spiegel news magazine reported he had been taking soundings. Another dark horse to watch may be Ralph Brinkhaus, the CDU/CSU parliamentary leader. Oddly, there is no established process to agree a chancellor candidate. When the Bavarian Franz Josef Strauss was chosen in 1980 (fun fact – his opponent was Ernst Albrecht, father of EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen), it was after a vote amongst CDU/CSU MPs. When Edmund Stoiber of the CSU claimed the role in 2002 ahead of Angela Merkel, it was by private agreement, famously over breakfast at Stoiber’s home. Party grandees are suggesting it will be important for the CDU to get two tough regional elections in mid-March out of the way before taking this decision. Both are difficult nuts for the party to crack, as the states in question, Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland Palatinate, are ones where the CDU should, on the basis of demographics, do well, but has underperformed and will face a job to displace the popular incumbents from the Greens and SPD respectively. Poor results in these states would make the choice of Spahn, Söder or even Brinkhaus more likely. Does all this matter? Absolutely it does. Given Germany’s position in the EU is as strong as ever (a point very powerfully demonstrated during its EU Council Presidency in the second half of 2020), the election of Merz would send a pretty strong message about the pace of fiscal consolidation that not only Germany, but also the rest of the EU, would expect to follow. The contenders also have very different instincts on foreign policy: Laschet is significantly more friendly to Russia than his two opponents are, for example. Merz’s views on climate policy are such that a coalition between the CDU/CSU and the Greens – by far the most likely outcome of the 2021 election – would be far harder to assemble. And of course, all this uncertainty reminds us just how big a void the departure of Angela Merkel from the political stage will leave. Image by Arno Mikkor under (CC). 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