As war, political instability, and democratic erosion continue to reshape Europe’s trajectory, experts recently gathered in Westminster to examine where Central Europe stands and where it may be heading.

On 24th June 2025, the Aston Centre for Europe, the Foreign Policy Centre and UK in a Changing Europe co-hosted a high-level expert roundtable exploring the current political and geopolitical landscape of Central Europe. The event was chaired by the Rt Hon Anneliese Dodds MP and featured speakers from academia, policy, and journalism: Dr. Monika Brusenbauch Meislová, Masaryk University (Czechia); Prof. Aleks Szczerbiak, University of Sussex (Poland); Vladimir Bilčík, Senior Fellow, GLOBSEC (Slovakia); and Alexander Faludy, Journalist (Hungary).

“The geopolitical roles of Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia have always been important but are even more crucial given the war against Ukraine. It is essential that we develop strong people-to-people bilateral relationships, especially to support and promote democracy and security in the face of threats from illiberal actors.”

Rt Hon Anneliese Dodds MP

The panel focused on developments in Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and Czechia. As war continues in Ukraine and global power dynamics shift, Central Europe has become a frontline for democratic resilience and foreign policy fragmentation. While united in their proximity to the war, the four countries diverge significantly in their internal politics, stance towards Russia, relations with the European Union (EU) and the United States (US), and their approaches to regional cooperation and defence. Included below is a snapshot of the panel’s discussion by country:

• Poland faces institutional deadlock following the election of Karol Nawrocki as president. Nawrocki’s predecessor from the Law and Justice party blocked legislative progress by the government under Prime Minister Donald Tusk and more of the same can be expected. However, while judicial reform and domestic governance are stalled, foreign and defense policy remain largely stable. A broad public consensus supports military aid to Ukraine, but Nawrocki has expressed scepticism about its NATO and EU membership ambitions and foresees a more instrumental relationship. UK-Poland defence ties, especially in arms procurement and shared threat assessment, are expected to continue regardless of internal political friction or transatlantic uncertainty.

“Poles have mixed views about Donald Trump, and many are concerned about the possible weakening of the trans-Atlantic alliance, but whatever their views most of them see the US as Poland’s only military security guarantor and are wary of any EU defence identity that is separate from NATO.”

Aleks Szczerbiak, Professor of Politics, University of Sussex

• Hungary is entering a politically volatile phase. The ruling Fidesz party is under pressure from the emerging TISZA party. This has prompted Fidesz, variously, to propose and enact a wave of restrictive legislation aimed at entrenching its power ahead of the 2026 elections. These include constitutional changes, media crackdowns and foreign interference laws. Hungary maintains close ties with China, Iran, and Belarus. Orbán‘s government continues to obstruct EU consensus on critical issues such as sanctions on Russia and resists rule of law standards.^[1] The political climate in Hungary is increasingly shaped by shifts in Washington. With President Trump’s administration in the United States taking a more transactional and ambiguous stance toward Europe, Hungary enjoys greater political cover to resist EU pressure.

“Hungary under Orbán is a headache for EU and NATO partners: a country from which Russian intelligence operates with impunity inside Schengen and which issues residents permits and passports to persons associated with those same intelligence services. The concern is multi-dimensional, given security and nuclear energy agreements with China and Iran.”

Alexander Faludy, Journalist

• Slovakia has seen moves to roll back democratic norms by the current government, though so far without the same degree of traction as in Hungary. Despite attempts by the government to control criminal investigations and to sideline independent media, public opinion remains broadly pro-EU and pro-NATO, and opposition forces are polling strongly ahead of the next election. Official rhetoric has increasingly challenged Slovakia’s commitments to NATO and EU norms, with Prime Minister Robert Fico raising the prospect of neutrality and distancing the country from Western consensus on Ukraine and Russia.^[2] The country’s trajectory remains uncertain, compounded by the government’s inability to address structural, economic, and social weaknesses. While civic resistance and electoral competition offer space for political change in Slovakia, continued UK and European engagement will be important to support conditions for democratic politics and economic modernisation.

“The current government in Slovakia is Prime Minister Fico’s weakest and most rudderless government so far. While conditions for democratic political change are still prevailing, a future Slovak government will have to address the most daunting social and economic tasks since EU and NATO accessions in 2004.”

Vladimir Bilčík, Senior Fellow, GLOBSEC

• Czechia presents a paradox. The country has a firmly pro-Western government, competitive elections, independent judiciary, and a pro-democracy president, yet there is growing electoral volatility ahead of the 2025 parliamentary elections. The ruling coalition is polling poorly amid public frustration over economic hardship, soaring living costs, and housing crisis. In this context, former populist Prime Minister Andrej Babiš is resurging, offering a technocratic, business-first message that sidelines foreign policy and questions Czechia’s continued support for Ukraine^[3]. His return could shift the country toward transactional neutrality, weakening its strong alignment with EU and NATO partners.

               “Czechia might look like the diligent pupil on democracy indices, but beneath the surface, there is growing political volatility and disillusionment. A return of Andrej Babiš would not just reshape domestic politics — it could steer Czechia towards a more transactional, inward-looking foreign policy, marked by greater readiness to play both sides.”

Dr. Monika Brusenbauch Meislová, Associate Professor , Masaryk University, Brno

To read the full country analyses and explore key thematic takeaways from this expert discussion, you can download the full briefing here.

^[1] Gabriel Gavin, Politico, ‘Hungary, Slovakia stall new Russia energy sanctions over gas ban proposal’,   June 2025,https://www.politico.eu/article/hungary-slovakia-block-new-russia-energy-sanctions-ukraine-war-invasion-eu-viktor-orban/; International Bar Association, ‘Rule of law: EU blocking €18bn funding to Hungary over legislation concerns’, June 2025, https://www.ibanet.org/Rule-of-law-EU-blocking-18bn-funding-to-Hungary-over-legislation-concerns?utm_source=chatgpt.com

^[2] Jan Lopatka, Reuters, ‘PM Fico says neutrality would benefit NATO member Slovakia’, June 2025, https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/pm-fico-says-neutrality-would-benefit-nato-member-slovakia-2025-06-17/

^[3] Jan Lopatka, Reuters, ‘Czech populist opposition leads as election set for October’,  May 2025, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/czech-populist-opposition-leads-election-set-october-2025-05-13/