The Foreign Policy Centre (FPC) and the Sectarianism, Proxies and Desectarianisation (SEPAD) project at Lancaster University’s Richardson Institute have produced a series of four background briefings as part of our ongoing partnership.

Authored by Dr Adel Ruished (SEPAD Fellow), the briefings provide analysis of developments across the region on a number of themes. They also draw on insights initially shared during the ‘Future of the Middle East’ Conference, which was hosted jointly by FPC and SEPAD in December 2024. Each paper concludes with a series of recommendations for the UK Government.

The first two papers provide background context for understanding regional dynamics, and US-UK engagement. The third and fourth explore forward-looking implications for human security, political agency and UK engagement. 

Given the rapidly evolving political and security dynamics across the Middle East, since the February 2026 US-Israeli strikes on Iran and the subsequent wider military action in the region, developments following this date may further shape or alter the trajectories assessed in these papers.

“Since the events of October 7 2023, the regional order in the Middle East continues to experience unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and rapid changes. Such developments have placed the region at a critical crossroads, teetering between the prospect of coexistence or escalation into a protracted and open military conflict. Human security, human rights, freedom of expression, political agency and the livelihoods of the population are at stake, with further deterioration looming across the region.

The following briefing papers offer essential insights based on research and careful review of regional political developments. By analysing cross-border conflicts, conflicts between and among states and non-state actors, and state-society dynamics, the papers aim to support decision- and policy-makers in addressing a region characterised by a deeper interrelationship between ideology, national identity, politics, economics, geography, and culture than anywhere else in the world.”

Dr Adel Ruished, SEPAD Fellow, Lancaster University

“The Middle East once again is at the centre of global policy discussions. The US and Israeli war on Iran has already had a devastating impact on life across the entire region, prompting a raft of serious questions to be asked about the politics and security of the region. This selection of briefings offers valuable insight into some of the key issues affecting the Middle East today while shedding light on possible UK responses.”

Professor Simon Mabon, Director of SEPAD

Download copies of the briefing papers below:

1. ‘Examining conflict, cooperation and co-existence in the MENA and Gulf’

This paper specifically seeks to look at the potential trajectories of conflict, cooperation, and coexistence, identifying where relations stood as of January 2026, ahead of the current escalation of the conflict in the region since February 2026, and how tensions might be mitigated, drawing on insights from prior cycles of regional escalation.

2. ‘Order and disorder in a context of global instability in the Middle East’

This paper focuses on UK and US foreign policy toward the region, it examines how their approach is perceived by both state and non-state actors regionally, as well as within UK policy making circles. The paper assesses how previous decision-making has impacted the region, looking at the possibilities to best support a stable and prosperous Middle East, and provides recommendations for a future UK foreign policy approach.

3. ‘Human (in)security in the MENA region and Gulf: New and emerging threats in a context of crisis’

This short briefing paper examines the broader implications of human insecurity, as well as its impact on the everyday lives of affected populations. It also looks at the trajectories of the humanitarian aid and development system, identifying current failures and how their consequences could be mitigated moving forward, drawing on lessons from previous experiences.

4. ‘How political agency and individual expression shape the MENA region and the Gulf’

This briefing paper focuses on political agency, freedom of expression, and the role of individuals in shaping the future of the region. It assesses how young activists in the region are finding ways to make their voices heard, the growing use of digital tools to control information, and the human rights implications of new technologies. Additionally, it considers how best to support political agency, press freedom, and the right to access information in the Middle East, and provides recommendations for a future UK policy approach.

The views expressed in the background briefing papers, unless otherwise cited, are those of the author.