Last week, the Trump administration met with Kremlin representatives in Saudi Arabia for negotiations that could pave the way for an end to Russia’s three-year full-scale war in Ukraine. Already, many words have been spilled on the crisis in European security architecture that this bilateral meeting has laid bare.
Less attention has been paid, however, to the implications of the Russia-US rapprochement evidenced in this meeting for China. Throughout most of the war, it had seemed that Russia needed Chinese political and economic support far more than China needed Russia. Now the tables may be turning.
Many in the West have interpreted Beijing’s refusal both to condemn the war and to comply with Western sanctions against Russia as its backing for the misadventures of its most significant international ally. Inside China, the story is different. While Chinese scholars heatedly debate the causes of the war and where fault and responsibility lie, they generally see their own nation’s position as the latest iteration of its long-standing foreign policy commitment to international peace, political neutrality and opposition to the kind of ‘bloc politics’ embodied in NATO.
Indeed, over the past three years, China has sought to use its external position vis-à-vis the conflict to advance proposals for peace in Ukraine. On the first anniversary of the full-scale invasion, it published a 12-point peace plan that was criticized by Western and Ukrainian commentators for being too vague.[1] In May 2024, China and Brazil published a joint 6-point proposal for peace that was dismissed by Ukrainian president Zelensky for being too Russia-centric. In only the past few days, China has stated that it welcomes peace talks between the US and Russia, while also calling for all stakeholders to be included in the negotiations.[2] However, despite the earlier attempts to act as peace-maker, this meeting demonstrates that China’s role in any peace deal remains marginal. Rather than taking a seat at the top peace-negotiating table, China’s diplomatic activities are more likely to be galvanizing support among Global South countries for relevant UN resolutions.
What does this mean for Russia and China’s “friendship without limits”? Despite their public display of camaraderie (primarily for Western benefit), the Russia-China relationship is by no means free of long-standing tensions, and a peace deal in Ukraine brokered by the Trump administration could have significant consequences for China’s place in the international system. Three immediately stand out.
First, it could make it more difficult for China to resist Trump’s confrontational stance. Already, the new administration has imposed 10% tariffs on Chinese goods; a peace deal favouring Russia could prompt Russia to support US efforts to contain the Chinese economy.
Second, it could complicate Beijing’s approach to the Taiwan issue. While Trump has mooted a trilateral meeting with Xi and Putin to work out ways to reduce defence spending, a simultaneous shift in wording on the US Department website appears to suggest the new administration’s support for Taiwanese independence. Without Russia’s tacit, if not outright, backing of Beijing in such a conflict, an already highly complex military operation would be even more risky.
Finally, it could reduce China’s international influence and global soft power reach more broadly. Russia has already called for a full normalization of relations with the US; if such a transformation were to take place, China will look increasingly isolated, and possibly weakened, on the world stage.
On the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion, one thing is clear. While it is unlikely that the US – Russia – China triangle can exist in such a way that satisfies all three powers, what each government appears to share is a lack of regard for a peace in Ukraine considered just by the people who live there.
Dr Catherine Owen is a Foreign Policy Centre Research Fellow.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this piece are those of the author and do not reflect the views of The Foreign Policy Centre.
[1] Ministry of Foreign Affairs The People’s Republic of China, ‘China’s Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis’, 24 February 2023, https://www.mfa.gov.cn/eng/zy/gb/202405/t20240531_11367485.html
[2] Gov.Br, ‘Brazil and China present joint proposal for peace negotiations with the participation of Russia and Ukraine’, Foreign Affairs, Planato, 23 May 2024, https://www.gov.br/planalto/en/latest-news/2024/05/brazil-and-china-present-joint-proposal-for-peace-negotiations-with-the-participation-of-russia-and-ukraine.