There was a famous saying that all roads lead to Rome. Now they are leading to Kyiv, in all senses: geopolitical, geo-economic, value-based and rule-based order or at least in the attempt to preserve the rules-based global order.

 

Despite all the challenges, Ukraine proves to continue functioning, fighting on the ground, having offensive operations and reforming itself. It seems surreal but very much true despite the evidence that in the last two weeks the world order as we knew it has come to an end. The system once based on rules, agreements, and shared values has been under a tsunami of geopolitical and geoeconomic challenges. It was never perfect, but it functioned. Now, its whole existence is under question.

 

All signs suggest that the United States is disengaging geopolitically from Europe. This growing transatlantic divide was particularly evident at the Munich Security Conference, where the rift proved not only deep but also fundamentally rooted in diverging values.

 

Moreover, European leaders found themselves directly challenged by US Vice President J.D. Vance, further amplifying the sense of uncertainty. This moment of shock should serve as a wake-up call for Europe, prompting a reassessment of its strategic autonomy and global role.

 

So, why do all eyes still need to be on Ukraine? Ukraine continues to prove that it can resist multiple challenges as well as reinvent itself in terms of innovations. Whether it is about the successful usage of naval drones, joint production lines in Ukraine under the “Danish model” or some other efforts to produce various unmanned aerial systems, it proves that it is more efficient to use advanced military technologies and localise production. [1]

 

Ukraine is nearing completion of the roadmaps required to open the first negotiation cluster in its EU accession process. The European Commission’s screening report is almost finalised; however, Hungary is delaying its approval.

 

A negotiation framework is already in place, containing multiple safeguards that allow for the suspension of the negotiation process if necessary. Ukraine anticipates the official launch of the first negotiation cluster in April or May. Moreover, the government has stated its ambition to open all negotiation clusters by the end of this year.

It is important to emphasise that the negotiation process is not merely a technocratic or bureaucratic exercise. While technical compliance plays a significant role, the process is highly influenced by the political situation within the candidate country.

 

However, the beginning of the 2025 shapes new waves of Russia’s aggression that has hastened the emergence of a multipolar world, undermined global security, and exposed critical vulnerabilities in the West’s strategic posture. The trajectory is clear: if left unchecked, the war risks escalating into a broader European conflict by 2030, with the prospect of a global confrontation no longer beyond consideration.

 

Ukraine knows with its history and present resilience that Putin’s demands—whether concerning territory, neutrality, elections, or other conditions—are ultimately irrelevant. These demands merely reflect Russia’s true objectives: to assert control over Ukraine and compel the US and NATO to compromise their principles and interests in favor of a global order that serves Russia’s strategic ambitions.

 

The US must eliminate any hope Putin may have of achieving these goals—whether through military means or a so-called “peaceful” agreement. This war can only end when Russia understands it cannot secure victory either on the battlefield or through diplomatic manipulation.

 

The Alliance must seriously reassess its strategic options, including the deployment of ground forces, if Russia’s continued unwillingness to compromise—coupled with Ukraine’s increasing manpower shortages due to the “too little, too late” policy—brings Moscow closer to restoring its former sphere of influence.

 

Drawing on extensive fieldwork conducted across the Black Sea region, the US in 2025 has multiple avenues to bolster its strategic presence and regional stability. Key initiatives might include strengthening NATO’s Eastern Flank through targeted force deployments, expanded arms sales, and increased defense investments to reinforce deterrence against Russian aggression, fostering “minilateral” cooperation—flexible, issue-driven alliances—among regional partners, particularly with Ukraine, to enhance interoperability and security coordination; securing and supporting regional connectivity initiatives that bypass Russian influence, reinforcing economic resilience and strategic independence for Black Sea nations.

 

This shift in US priorities underscores the urgent need for Europe to take greater responsibility for its own defense—not as a matter of political convenience, but as an imperative for long-term security and stability.

 

Given the shifting security landscape, investments in Ukraine’s defense industry, joint production ventures, and military innovation are essential. After nearly three years of war, Ukraine has demonstrated remarkable resilience, now producing over a third of its battlefield weaponry through domestic innovation.

 

Strengthening Ukraine’s defense industrial base not only enhances its self-sufficiency in warfare but also fosters long-term partnerships with Western defense sectors. By expanding joint production efforts, allied nations can bolster Ukraine’s warfighting capabilities while also reinforcing Europe’s broader security framework.

 

Russia, along with its allies, must not be underestimated as a destabilizing force in European security for at least the next decade. Its offensive strategies—combining hard and soft power with hybrid tactics—pose a persistent challenge that demands serious, sustained, and adaptive containment efforts.

 

As Winston Churchill once warned, “An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile—hoping it will eat him last.” Failing to confront Russian aggression today will only embolden further destabilization tomorrow.

 

In this defining moment, Ukraine’s fight is Europe’s fight—and Europe’s security is the world’s security.

 

 

 

 

Dr. Victoria Vdovychenko is a widely recognized and published expert on the issues of hybrid warfare, strategic communication, with particular emphasis on relations between Ukraine and the European Union as well as NATO. She is working on the challenges of the European Union, Euro-Atlantic integration, hybrid warfare, strategic communication collaborating with such educational institutions as University of Bologna, George C. Marshall Center for Security Studies, KU Leuven, University Catholic Louvain, Cambridge University. Victoria is currently a Visiting Fellow within the British Academy and a co-lead of the Future of Ukraine Program at the Centre for Geopolitics, University of Cambridge.

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this piece are those of the author and do not reflect the views of The Foreign Policy Centre

 

 

 

[1] Ukraine and Denmark summarised the results of cooperation under the ‘Danish Model’ of support for the Ukrainian defense industry in 2024. Through this initiative, the Armed Forces of Ukraine received weapons valued at nearly EUR 538 million. https://mod.gov.ua/en/news/results-of-the-danish-model-of-support-for-ukraine-s-defense-industry-in-2024-the-armed-forces-of-ukraine-received-weapons-valued-at-nearly-538-million