The 28th of October 2025, the Foreign Policy Centre and the SEPAD project at Lancaster University co-hosted a public webinar, bringing together leading experts to examine the evolving dynamics in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). With particular focus on the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, the ongoing devastation in Gaza following October 7, and a complex web of shifting alliances—including the Beijing-mediated normalisation between Iran and Saudi Arabia—have created a fluid and uncertain political landscape. In the face of these developments, questions surrounding sectarianism, accountability, governance, and regional integration have taken on a renewed urgency.
The discussion titled “Forging New Futures: Looking Ahead at the MENA Region” was chaired by Poppy Ogier, FPC’s Communications and Research Manager, and featured contributions from, Dr Nour Abu-Assab, Co-Founder and Co-Director of the Centre for Transnational Development and Collaboration (CTDC), Dr Sanam Vakil, Director of the MENA Programme at Chatham House, and Professor Simon Mabon, Chair in International Politics at Lancaster University and Director of SEPAD.
The following takeaways emerged during the webinar session:
1. The Middle East post-October 7
One point that was evident before 7 October—and has become even clearer since—is that conflicts in the region are deeply interconnected. Stabilisation and resolution efforts cannot be siloed, but must take a holistic view of the region’s political and security architecture, as the sources of destabilisation are multiple, driven not only by regional actors, but shaped by the broader global landscape in which they operate.
The genocide in Gaza has significantly altered the political calculus of many states. While pre-October 7, regional governments had engaged in normalisation efforts with Israel, the scale of violence and destruction has led to significant public outrage, shifting the focus back to the unresolved Palestinian question and slowing or even stalling normalisation agreements. While the ceasefire is seen as a positive development, questions remain over the stability of the agreement and the prospects of meaningful conflict resolution. Regional stability can only be possible if Palestinian statehood and sovereignty is supported and achieved.
2. Israel’s military posture is increasingly destabilising
Israel’s military actions, particularly the June 2025 war with Iran and the September strikes on Qatar, have significantly reshaped regional perceptions. While Iran has traditionally been viewed as the primary destabilising actor, Israel’s use of military force across multiple fronts has led to a reframing of its role in the region.
The war with Iran revealed the limits of Tehran’s capacity for regional projection, exposing the symbolic nature of much of its deterrent power. Israel, by contrast, demonstrated clear military dominance. These developments have emboldened Israeli strategic postures while simultaneously drawing concern from neighbouring states.
The strike on Qatar further reinforced Israel’s image as a destabiliser. This event, in particular, has been critical in shifting diplomatic and security assessments across the Gulf and beyond, undermining trust in Israel’s role as a partner in regional security.
3. The role of Gulf States as regional stabilisers
Gulf states find themselves increasingly forced into a delicate balancing act. The interconnectedness of regional conflicts means that escalation in one area often has spill over effects elsewhere. This interdependence has heightened the strategic stakes for Gulf leaders.
Over the past two years, Gulf states have exhibited growing diplomatic agency. Their proactive efforts to mediate, negotiate ceasefires, and advocate for a political resolution to the Palestinian issue are driven not only by principle but by urgent self-interest. With limited military capacities, Gulf states are relying on diplomacy as their primary tool for regional stability.
Their advocacy for Palestinian self-determination, particularly in the aftermath of Gaza, has also become more vocal, positioning them as both mediators and stakeholders in any future regional order.
4. Integrity of information, justice, and accountability
Accurately describing what is happening in the region matters, not only for activism but for those who have endured this continuum of violence over the years. To do so meaningfully, we must consider regional history and the need for historical reparation. Understanding the root causes of conflict is essential if we are to have any hope of ‘forging new futures’.
In this context, the prospects for accountability take on particular urgency. They must go beyond prosecuting those directly responsible on the ground to include those with the power and influence to shape regional events. This is a responsibility that lies not only with MENA states, but also with Western actors. To move forward, we must look past the narrow confines of media-driven narratives and reflect more deeply on what meaningful accountability could look like in today’s international order.
5. Sectarianism, governance, and the crisis of the State
The region is caught between a collapsing old order and an unclear future. In this uncertain interregnum, long-standing political structures are being questioned, and moments of crisis are prompting communities to rethink the relationship between rulers and ruled. Even before 7 October, sectarian identities were under strain. Protests in Lebanon and Iraq (2019–2020) highlighted widespread frustration with sectarian governance. Meanwhile, actions like Houthi attacks in the Red Sea signalled new forms of cross-sectarian solidarity.
At the same time, sectarian divisions continue to be exploited for political purposes, particularly in attempts to reframe the region through an anti-Iran lens. But increasingly, the sharper divide is not sect versus sect, but people versus power—regimes versus citizens.
6. The role of the UK and the international community
The UK and international actors have played a long-standing role in shaping the dynamics of the MENA region, often through historical complicity and continued strategic interests. As several speakers noted, the UK’s current posture—marked by alignment with US policy and declining soft power—undermines its credibility. Rebuilding trust requires a shift toward principled engagement, meaningful accountability for harm caused (such as arms sales and extractive partnerships), and a commitment to global norms. The international community must take seriously its responsibilities, not only to uphold the rules-based order but to support regional-led processes for justice, accountability, and sustainable peace.
A full recording of the event is available here: