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Oman – The Quiet Diplomat

Article by James Denselow

February 16, 2016

Oman – The Quiet Diplomat

The country is conscious that whilst its oil and political stability has given it the opportunity to significantly develop over the past forty years, it is not immune to the chaos that is gradually creeping across the entire region. Of particular concern considering the Sultanate’s geography is the spectre of Iranian-Saudi relations deteriorating further. Oman has the political and economic motivations to push for a wider peace agenda across the region and is worthy of a closer look.

The country is undergoing a transition. The collapse in oil prices has had a significant impact on the Omani economy forcing the government to reduce public spending and remove subsidies around fuel in particular. The price of unleaded petrol went up earlier this year by a one third after a 17 year freeze moving Oman from the 9th to 13th cheapest place in the world to fill up your car. This could have a silver lining if the country is able to genuinely diversify its economy. One sector that has vast potential is that of tourism. Long, unspoilt beaches (some of which have Turtle nesting zones) coastline views of Dhows fishing out to sea and the spectacular Green Mountains are arguably more sustainable assets than oil and gas. Yet for this sector to flourish the ‘brand’ of the region has to be less ISIS and more ‘peaceful oases’.

As an Arab League and GCC player Oman’s diplomacy is based around the primacy of avoiding conflict. Last year’s decision by Saudi Arabia to start military operations in Yemen placed huge pressure on the Omani ‘peace first’ strategy, but the Sultanate managed to avoid getting dragged in and preserved its relationship with Saudi Arabia. Oman’s relationship with Tehran and Riyadh allowed it to play a key role as host to the Iranian nuclear talks, a potential game changer for the region. The country is perhaps unique in having had joint military training with both Iran and the US and with the Straits of Hormuz on its doorstep, where a 5th of the world’s oil passes through, is very much in the centre of a potential global flashpoint.

Speaking to senior Omani diplomats you get a clear sense of the role that they see the country playing. One spoke of how “globalisation for Oman started a thousand years ago when our sea faring history saw us engage and build friendships across the world. We do good things in the region for security and peace yet we don’t get any recognition in the West – because we’re too modest”. Such modesty could be a valuable asset and I was struck when visiting the country that there is huge potential for the Sultanate to be the home of conflict resolution efforts for the region.

Indeed as the set piece peace efforts around Syria’s conflict have failed to date under the glare of the publicity of the Geneva, Vienna and Munich conferences, Muscat sits well placed as the site for more ‘modest’ track two efforts. Essentially could Muscat be to Geneva what Oslo was for Madrid?

Oman’s problem solving potential has also seen it take in Guantanamo Bay prisoners, reliving pressure from President Obama who may still make his pledge to close the camp before he leaves office. This January ten Yemeni men were sent to Oman bringing the detainee population below 100 for the first time. In Muscat a new National Museum is preparing to open in April that within the modern era section focuses on Oman’s values of tolerance and moderation. One Omani journalist I met described the country’s foreign policy as ‘keep everyone as a friend’. Their diplomats regular cite the importance of inclusiveness and dialogue as a priority and despite the obvious challenges to such well meaning thoughts the country appears to be effectively walking the fine line keeping onside with all.

The track record and potential of Oman as a diplomatic pivot is of particular interest for the United Kingdom who’s historical, cultural and economic connections place it at the top of the league table of allies. If the UK can further support the bridge into economic diversification that Oman is attempting then it could find relations even closer. There is an obvious UK interest in supporting Oman’s efforts to become the region’s indispensable peace maker, although I would argue that maintaining its ‘quiet’ approach is essential for continued effectiveness.

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    How does private sector development support structural transformation and enhance sustainable development outcomes? This might range from wealth and investment creation to employment-led growth. Private sector development might also drive innovation and technological development to building essential infrastructure. Furthermore, business and enterprise can also support entrepreneurship, help improve the quality of work and provide much needed increases in labour productivity.

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    The event series is scheduled to take place 2014-16. Following the roundtable discussion series, the FPC will produce a report (to be launched in 2016/17) which will build on the discussions and insights exchanged during the course of the event series. The report will capture the salient issues discussed and key findings identified. This event forms part of a wider Foreign Policy Centre series entitled: Africa Rising? Building Africa’s Productive Capacity for Inclusive Growth. Additional project supporters include Barclays and CDC Group.

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      How does private sector development support structural transformation and enhance sustainable development outcomes? This might range from wealth and investment creation to employment-led growth. Private sector development might also drive innovation and technological development to building essential infrastructure. Furthermore, business and enterprise can also support entrepreneurship, help improve the quality of work and provide much needed increases in labour productivity.

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      • Female entrepreneurship, employment and agricultural development: Promoting food and nutritional security by improving support to women producers.

      • Bridging the gap between science, technology and innovation for development transformation in Africa: Tackling development dilemmas in agriculture (e.g. food and livestock security) and the environment (e.g. biodiversity and forestry). What works, what doesn’t and how can success be appropriately scaled-up and replicated?

      • Women and environmental resource management: Adapting to a changing environment and balancing conservation and consumption in an age of scarcity and uncertainty.

      The event series is scheduled to take place across in 2014/15. Following the roundtable discussion series, the FPC will produce a report (to be launched in 2015/16) which will build on the discussions and insights exchanged during the course of the event series. The report will capture the salient issues discussed and key findings identified. This event forms part of a wider Foreign Policy Centre series entitled: Africa Rising? Building Africa’s Productive Capacity for Inclusive Growth. Additional project supporters include Barclays and CDC Group.

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        The event series is scheduled to take place across in 2014/15. Following the roundtable discussion series, the FPC will produce a report (to be launched in 2015/16) which will build on the discussions and insights exchanged during the course of the event series. The report will capture the salient issues discussed and key findings identified. This event forms part of a wider Foreign Policy Centre series entitled: Africa Rising? Building Africa’s Productive Capacity for Inclusive Growth. Additional project supporters include Barclays and CDC Group.

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              Summary note- Enterprising Africa: What role can financial inclusion play in driving employment-led growth?-Roundtable 2

              Through a series of three roundtable discussions and the publication of a report supported by Barclays, the Foreign Policy Centre seeks to explore how greater financial inclusion has the potential to help drive the development of new businesses and new jobs, thereby igniting development transformation across Africa.

              Promising African economic outlook 2013 and addressing the financial inclusion-job creation challenge
              The global financial crisis has led to an economic age of austerity, mounting uncertainty and rising inequality. Yet, according to the 2013 African Economic Outlook, both 2013 and 2014 promise to illustrate Africa’s ability to withstand domestic, regional and international volatility. The continent is projected to grow by 4.8% this year and growth rates are expected to increase further to 5.3% in 2014. Nonetheless, this impressive economic growth and its accompanying resilience have made little impact on soaring unemployment levels, endemic underemployment and escalating income inequality . According to the World Bank’s 2013 World Development Report, 10 million new workers enter the labour market in Sub-Saharan Africa each year . Predictions from the report suggest that by 2035, Africa will collectively boast the world’s largest labour force, exceeding the size of the work force in China and that of India. This increasing demand for employment will be accompanied by rising income levels. Between 2010 and 2020, 40% of the world’s poorest people will experience an almost two-fold increase in their purchasing power. Incomes for this demographic are set to rise from approximately USD $3 billion to USD $5.8 billion . The burning question is therefore, how to accelerate the creation of decent employment for all, particularly young people. In addition, how might improved access to inclusive financial services across a wide range of client groups – with rising disposable incomes – impact on employment expansion? More significantly, can universal financial inclusion be achieved at an affordable cost and will it be economically viable for the private sector to deliver?

              An enabling policy environment for financial inclusion
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              Mapping the links between financial inclusion and expanding employment
              As attempts are made to stimulate the world economy and rebalance economic growth, never before has the need to forge a new global consensus on how to accelerate productive employment creation been such a pressing economic and development priority. Understanding the impact that full financial inclusion plays in accelerating job creation is critical for improving the lives and livelihoods of vulnerable people globally. Arguably, a striking example of the importance of this is that 97% of manufacturing jobs across Ethiopia are in microenterprises. In addition, economies such as Rwanda and Ethiopia have experienced impressive reductions in poverty rates due to modernisation in the agricultural sector. Yet, building such productive capacity is often constrained by a lack of access to finance, financial capability, appropriate skills and training and access to markets, as well as an absence of an enabling business environment, unresponsive infrastructure and a lack of supportive regulation. Under such circumstances, the potential to create employment is increasingly limited .

              When financial inclusion may not be a sufficient condition for job creation and growth
              Financial inclusion is by no means a magic bullet. There is a growing body of evidence suggesting that not all small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) may have equal potential for generating jobs and growth. The job creation impact and growth potential of SMEs is determined by a number of factors. Those small business owners who set up enterprises, not through choice, but because they are unable to secure other employment, often develop enterprises which remain small and are concentrated in only a very small number of industries, are focused mainly on sustaining their own livelihoods, are concentrated on the need to manage risks (as opposed to taking risks) and, arguably, have limited future prospects. In contrast, young businesses that are established by those with the energy, drive and capacity to innovate, take risks, build peer networks and identify talent with complementary skills are those more likely to drive economic growth and employment . Taking this into account, how can providers of financial services and products, in partnership with policymakers and policy advocates, ensure that interventions are appropriately targeted to support dynamic enterprise that generates a multiplier effect on wider economic development?

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                Download PDF
                Summary note- Enterprising Africa: What role can financial inclusion play in driving employment-led growth?-Roundtable 3

                Through a series of three roundtable discussions and the publication of a report supported by Barclays, the Foreign Policy Centre seeks to explore how greater financial inclusion has the potential to help drive the development of new businesses and new jobs, thereby igniting development transformation across Africa.

                Promising African economic outlook 2013 and addressing the financial inclusion-job creation challenge
                The global financial crisis has led to an economic age of austerity, mounting uncertainty and rising inequality. Yet, according to the 2013 African Economic Outlook, both 2013 and 2014 promise to illustrate Africa’s ability to withstand domestic, regional and international volatility. The continent is projected to grow by 4.8% this year and growth rates are expected to increase further to 5.3% in 2014. Nonetheless, this impressive economic growth and its accompanying resilience have made little impact on soaring unemployment levels, endemic underemployment and escalating income inequality . According to the World Bank’s 2013 World Development Report, 10 million new workers enter the labour market in Sub-Saharan Africa each year . Predictions from the report suggest that by 2035, Africa will collectively boast the world’s largest labour force, exceeding the size of the work force in China and that of India. This increasing demand for employment will be accompanied by rising income levels. Between 2010 and 2020, 40% of the world’s poorest people will experience an almost two-fold increase in their purchasing power. Incomes for this demographic are set to rise from approximately USD $3 billion to USD $5.8 billion . The burning question is therefore, how to accelerate the creation of decent employment for all, particularly young people. In addition, how might improved access to inclusive financial services across a wide range of client groups – with rising disposable incomes – impact on employment expansion? More significantly, can universal financial inclusion be achieved at an affordable cost and will it be economically viable for the private sector to deliver?

                An enabling policy environment for financial inclusion
                Alongside a growing economic and social demand for employment-led growth, financial inclusion is also being championed as a critical global public policy priority to help reduce global inequality and poverty. Promoting universal access to financial services and products has enjoyed rising prominence, ranging from recommendations in shaping the post-2015 UN Millennium Development Goals to the G20’s reassertion of the centrality of financial inclusion in its development agenda. In addition, only recently, the World Bank President called for collective action to achieve universal financial access by 2020.

                Mapping the links between financial inclusion and expanding employment
                As attempts are made to stimulate the world economy and rebalance economic growth, never before has the need to forge a new global consensus on how to accelerate productive employment creation been such a pressing economic and development priority. Understanding the impact that full financial inclusion plays in accelerating job creation is critical for improving the lives and livelihoods of vulnerable people globally. Arguably, a striking example of the importance of this is that 97% of manufacturing jobs across Ethiopia are in microenterprises. In addition, economies such as Rwanda and Ethiopia have experienced impressive reductions in poverty rates due to modernisation in the agricultural sector. Yet, building such productive capacity is often constrained by a lack of access to finance, financial capability, appropriate skills and training and access to markets, as well as an absence of an enabling business environment, unresponsive infrastructure and a lack of supportive regulation. Under such circumstances, the potential to create employment is increasingly limited .

                When financial inclusion may not be a sufficient condition for job creation and growth
                Financial inclusion is by no means a magic bullet. There is a growing body of evidence suggesting that not all small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) may have equal potential for generating jobs and growth. The job creation impact and growth potential of SMEs is determined by a number of factors. Those small business owners who set up enterprises, not through choice, but because they are unable to secure other employment, often develop enterprises which remain small and are concentrated in only a very small number of industries, are focused mainly on sustaining their own livelihoods, are concentrated on the need to manage risks (as opposed to taking risks) and, arguably, have limited future prospects. In contrast, young businesses that are established by those with the energy, drive and capacity to innovate, take risks, build peer networks and identify talent with complementary skills are those more likely to drive economic growth and employment . Taking this into account, how can providers of financial services and products, in partnership with policymakers and policy advocates, ensure that interventions are appropriately targeted to support dynamic enterprise that generates a multiplier effect on wider economic development?

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                  Download PDF
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