Skip to content

Closing the Door: Conclusions and recommendations

Article by Adam Hug

December 4, 2017

Closing the Door: Conclusions and recommendations

The contributors to this essay collection have described some of the main challenges that activists and other at-risk people from the former Soviet Union face in trying to seek asylum or temporary refuge. Given the wider stresses and strains from the Mediterranean migrant crisis and the rise of nationalist governments in a number of European countries, the ability to achieve international protection in Europe (and now post-Trump in the United States) is getting more difficult, even as the human rights situation in a number of the countries in the region continues to deteriorate.

 

No Shelter

As highlighted in the paper by Minos Mouzourakis and Claire Rimmer Quaid and shown in the introduction, different European receiving countries have dramatically different acceptance rates. For example Russians are more than four times as likely to be accepted for asylum in Austria than they are in Germany. Different countries may receive different types of population flow depending on factors including the main entry point (for example a land border with an FSU country compared to arrival by air) and local demographics leading to different mixes of economic migrants and genuine applicants. However such wide variations reflect clear policy by the receiving state not only around evidence and the risk an applicant faces but, put bluntly, around the country’s desire to push the ‘problem’ elsewhere. Elena Kachanovich-Shlyk and Yan Matusevich show that Poland’s artificially low recognition rate assumes that asylum seekers will deliberately transit through it to elsewhere in the EU, while the problem of preventing people from entering and applying is creating a real problem at the Belarus boarder.

 

The findings of this publication[1] make it very clear to European countries revising their asylum procedures that it is completely inappropriate for Russia and Belarus to be considered as ‘safe third countries’ for those believed to be at risk in their country of origin elsewhere in the former Soviet Union. Experience has clearly shown that Russia, and to a certain extent Belarus, cannot be relied upon to provide international protection to nationals from countries with which they have close political ties or a history of security service cooperation. The designation of Georgia and Armenia as ‘safe countries’ should not be stretched to being considered a safe third country for Azerbaijani and Russian nationals respectively, given the risks that they could face from their home country’s security services. Norway, Finland, and Bulgaria should look to end their blanket adoption of the safe third country principle in relation to Russia, while Poland, Estonia and others should stop moving towards adopting such a position.

 

Similarly it is completely inappropriate to apply the internal protection alternative to citizens from Russia’s North Caucasus republics, most notably Chechnya, who are genuinely at risk from their local security services or other powerful groups within those societies. Chechnya’s security services for example are able to work with their Russian Federal counterparts to threaten the security of Chechen nationals and other opponents of Kadyrov irrespective of where they are in within the Russian federation, and increasingly beyond its borders. With this in mind the UK and a number of other European and countries need to play a more proactive role, directly working with Russian civil society groups to help LGBTI Chechens to be able to claim asylum in their countries.

 

Family matters

The family dimension to the asylum and refugee picture is often one of the most challenging, with family reunification a politically and practically fraught process. Setting to one side for the purposes of this publication the huge challenges in this regard relating to the wider group of asylum seekers and refugees, there at least needs to be greater scope for enhancing the existing collaboration between embassies in the applicant’s home country and immigration officials to properly assess the level of specific risk faced by the family members of identified activists and other targeted people from the countries of the former Soviet Union. The respective contributions by Alieva and by Furstenberg, Lemon and Heathershaw remind us of the widely known fact that repressive regimes routinely target families and other loved ones those who dare to speak out against them, to pressure them into silence or in some cases to force those in exile to return to face punishment. However as this threat to family members increases in countries such as Azerbaijan and Tajikistan, it is becoming harder to offer them opportunities to rejoin the activist or other at-risk person who has already received refugee status. Immigration authorities need to understand the growing risks activists’ families face, and should provide greater opportunities for family reunification in these circumstances.

 

Similarly, as Alieva points out, there is a need for a more intelligence-led approach to providing support in cases where the applicant is themselves the family member of an activist still based in-country who is bravely continuing to operate on the ground. While some activists are willing to take huge risks with their own safety and wellbeing, immigration authorities need to be able to identify when there is a real risk that their sons, daughters or other relatives may be targeted for repressive treatment as a form of leverage against the activist, and be able to give international protection to these family members in such circumstances.

 

Getting a clearer picture

A way for immigration officials to better understand the challenges faced by families and indeed activists themselves is by improving the formal country information that they use to inform their decision-making. Firstly the UNCHR has not conduced an in-depth country report on Russia since 2012, as part of its 2011 Global Report, despite Russia being a major source and transit country for those claiming asylum. The same applies to many other countries in the region and there may be scope for updating such information to help advise countries in developing their approaches to sensitive topics such as the application of safe third country and internal protection alternative principles. The same lack of systematised information can be found at the country level too. The UK Home Office does not have Country Policy and Information Notes on any of the countries in the region, even though Russia does send [2] a reasonable number of applicants (between 125 and 200 most years) to the country every year. The low numbers from other FSU countries are in part a reflection on the high thresholds the UK sets that deter people from applying.

 

Recommendations

In order to address the growing challenges identified in the publication the authors and editor have made a number of recommendations for action[3]:

 

The UK, European and other western countries should:

  • Refrain from a mandatory use of safe third country concepts for those deemed to be at risk in their country of origin. Russia and Belarus should not be considered safe third countries for citizens of other post-Soviet states.
  • Resit the obligatory use of the Internal Protection Alternative. It must not be applied in Russia, particularly not in relation to at risk citizens from Russia’s North Caucasus republics such as Chechnya.
  • Work with Russian NGOs to provided safe routes for LGBTI Chechens to receive asylum in the UK and other countries that are not yet providing direct support.
  • Take appropriate measures to ensure people can apply for asylum at border crossings, with particular note to the Poland-Belarus border.
  • Improve the ways in which they assess the risk to family members of activists and look to provide additional opportunities for those under threat.
  • Look to provide more official country information from both the UNHCR and national immigration authorities.
  • Persist with efforts within INTERPOL to deliver on recently enacted reforms to restrict the ability of states in the former Soviet Union using its mechanisms to harass opponents abroad.
  • Work to ensure all other Council of Europe member states fully abide by European Court of Human Rights rulings in relation to protection against refoulement (being returned to face persecution).
  • Address deportations and the transfer of population in Crimea within resolutions and other human rights decisions, looking at the use of enhanced sectoral and individual sanctions in relation to human rights violations in Crimea. Support the Ukrainian government and civil society organizations in assisting internally displaced persons from Crimea.

 

Donors and NGOs should:

  • Increase support to the organisations taking care of asylum seekers, activists and scholars at risk.

 

Ukraine should:

  • Review, restrict and potentially revoke security cooperation with the Russian Federation in relation to extradition procedures.

 

Russia should:

  • End deportations of Crimean residents who refuse to adopt Russian citizenship or who otherwise oppose the occupation.
  • Reform deportation order procedures to consider the risk of harm posed by returning people to their country of origin, ensuring that appeals against an order must be completed before it is actioned. Make it easier for people to access asylum procedures including protection against the refoulement of holders of ‘temporary asylum’ and other interim statuses.
  • Abide by rulings of the European Court of Human Rights in relation to asylum and extradition, including interim measures taken to stop deportations.

[1] Building on the findings of the No Shelter, Shelter from the Storm and Sharing Worst Practice publications

[2]UK Government, Country policy and information notes, https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/country-policy-and-information-notes#p

[3] The list here is compiled by the editor from a mix of recommendations in individual articles and his own suggestions. All of them together may not necessarily represent the views of individual authors. Similarly they may not represent the views of the Foreign Policy Centre.

Footnotes
    Related Articles

    Institutionally Blind: The next steps in reforming the Council of Europe and the OSCE

    Article by Adam Hug

    November 24, 2017

    Institutionally Blind: The next steps in reforming the Council of Europe and the OSCE

    The Council of Europe (CoE) and Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) are two regional bodies that bring together European, post-Soviet (and in the case of the OSCE) North American states to address fundamental issues relating to human rights and security. Here in the UK beyond periodic political attacks on the European Court of Human Rights[1], little is known by the public about their activities. However particularly in the countries of the former Soviet Union these institutions can play a significantly more central role in influencing political change, yet both are organisations under significant strain.

    This paper is based on the findings of an expert roundtable that took place in July 2017 bringing together academics, human rights activists and officials[2] to debate the challenges facing these two organisations, building on the research conducted in the Foreign Policy Centre’s February 2016 publication Institutionally Blind: International organisations and human rights abuses in the former Soviet Union[3].

    Overview

    Both institutions are facing significant tensions over geopolitics and allegations of influence and corruption. In June 2017 the OSCE overcame months of deadlock between liberal and authoritarian state actors over who should fill key positions within the organisation, with the approach to the OSCE’s human dimension as a significant stumbling block and with all candidates requiring consensus. Switzerland’s former OSCE envoy Thomas Greminger has been appointed Secretary General, Iceland’s former foreign minister Ingibjorg Solrun Gisladottir becomes head of the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR), former OSCE Secretary General Lamberto Zannier becomes the High Commissioner on National Minorities and French former Socialist Party leader Harlem Desir takes over as Representative on Freedom of the Media[4]. The deadlock was broken too on the 18 months of wrangling over the 2017 annual budget finally approved on 1st June 2017, half way through the year[5]. The financial pressures faced by the human dimension bodies such as the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) remain acute, while the crisis in Ukraine has taken up a lot of the institution’s focus and time.

    The CoE has been rocked by a corruption scandal in the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE), a crisis that observers had long seen coming, as set out in the Institutionally Blind publication and most notably in reports by the European Stability Initiative in its Caviar Diplomacy series. Luca Volontè, former chair of the Centre-Right European People’s Party grouping at PACE is being investigated for allegations that he received a bribe of £2.39 million from groups linked to the Government of Azerbaijan[6], while current PACE President Pedro Agramunt has been stripped of his powers. Although the trigger for Agramunt’s defenestration has been the result of a visit to Syria as guest of the Russians, it follows years of concerns over his tendency to overlook human rights violations in well-resourced states, notably in relation to Azerbaijan and the issue of political prisoners.

    The future of both institutions as key players in supporting democracy and good governance remains uncertain at a time when liberal institutional values are being pressured by resurgent authoritarianism and ‘illiberalism’ across the region, particularly in the former Soviet Union and eastern Europe; increasingly insular and economically focused politics in Western nations and the related reduction of Western influence in the post-Soviet space. This paper does not seek to address all of the challenges that the OSCE and Council of Europe face in relation to human rights issues but focuses on the priorities raised by experts at the roundtable.

    Parliamentary Assemblies

    The role of PACE and the Parliamentary Assembly of the OSCE (OSCE PA) are a major focus of NGO and activist concern about the operation of these institutions and their impact on human rights standards. The key issues of the roundtable matched those of the 2016 publication, the need for transparency and accountability, so that what Parliamentarians do in these institutions does not happen in the dark, that their participation does not get used as an opportunity for personal enrichment, whether through legal (but unethical) business deals or corrupt practices.

    There is some hope amongst experts that the probe into the PACE corruption scandal has the potential to be a significant lever for change. The investigation is being led by internationally respected judges, including the UK’s Sir Nicolas Bratza (former President of the European Court of Human Rights), and has been given a wide remit to address structural problems in the organisation. The scandal too has given an opportunity for Parliamentarians themselves to speak up about the problems the organisation faces, with the UK’s Roger Gale MP noted as playing a positive role in response to the crisis.

    Furthermore the CoE’s Group of States Against Corruption (GRECO) was invited by PACE to play an active role in strengthening the organisation’s code of conduct[7]. Its assessment of the code, published in June 2017, has been widely praised by activists for drawing attention to significant shortcomings in its current formulation and implementation[8]. The report criticised the supervision PACE provides of its members as ‘weak’ and ‘excessively discretionary’ with no sanction against members so far recorded. The GRECO report calls for mechanisms to remove immunity and for greater awareness raising around existing standards. Despite the focus on corruption at PACE it was noted that the OSCE PA doesn’t even have a code of conduct against which to hold its members to account.

    Roundtable participants wanted to see new ways to increase public awareness of the activities of Parliamentarians who take part in the two Parliamentary Assemblies, with the lack of scrutiny noted as a potential reason why positions taken by members of the Assemblies can often diverge from their national foreign policy. There was a focus on the desire for votes at PACE and OSCE PA to be recorded via national level transparency and accountability mechanisms, such as for example through the ‘They Work for You’ website in the UK. While there have been steps to record information about voting behaviour by the institutions themselves and regional level resources, such resources are likely only to be accessed by experts rather than a politician’s constituents.

    Where Parliamentarians are doing a good job using their roles at OSCE and the Council of Europe effectively, roundtable participants felt that there needs to be scope for civil society to praise their efforts, albeit perhaps in a targeted way to NGO supporters, as not all MPs, even when they are doing the right thing, are keen to have their involvements overseas publicised to all their constituents. It was also noted that a number of members of national delegations may be from unelected or indirectly elected chambers such as the UK House of Lords, limiting the scope for public pressure.

    Improving the status of delegations within Parliaments remains another important tool in order to encourage the involvement of active, high quality members. It was noted that in the UK the status of the delegations is not high but that the former Europe Minister David Lidington took an active role in meeting with the delegation ahead of plenary sessions, and his successors have also looked to provide regular meetings, particularly with the delegation chairs. There needs to be scope to more widely promote within Parliament what the delegations can do, increasing the links with relevant Parliamentary Committees, and dispelling misperceptions to help recruit better candidates for the available posts. In the UK it has been noted that there is higher than usual competition for places amongst Labour politicians in the new 2017 UK Parliament[9]. The UK Parliament’s role in providing clerking services to the OSCE PA was noted as an opportunity for influencing its operation and its rules of procedure.

    The Council of Europe’s attempts to apply political sanctions to Russia after its actions in Crimea by the withdrawing of voting and other rights from Russian delegates at PACE has triggered a refusal by Russia to pay its £33m annual subscription to the organisation as a whole, a source of political tension to come and of further pressure on already stretched budgets[10]. The Council of Europe will be forced to wait 2 years before formal enforcement action can be taken against the Russians for this action, though other options are being considered to break the deadlock.

    The Venice Commission and the OSCE High Commissioner on National Minorities

    Both the Council of Europe and OSCE are home to a range of specialist mechanisms that contain vital technical expertise, which can support efforts to promote good governance, democracy and human rights in the organisation’s respective regions. The roundtable drew attention to some specific issues related to two of these mechanisms.

    The CoE’s European Commission for Democracy through Law (known as the Venice Commission) is one of the most widely respected bodies in the two institutions, drawing support both from Governments and the expert and activist communities. Seen as a ‘lode star for the rule of law in the region’ it is not regularly criticised by authoritarian regimes, unlike other human rights focused bodies. However, while this is a reflection of the quality of the legal work undertaken to scrutinise proposed legislation across the region, it is also perhaps a reflection that a positive report from the Venice Commission around the written text of national legislation can be used to promote an image of compliance with international human rights standards, irrespective of whether such laws are implemented in an appropriate manner. Scope to fully scrutinise post-legislative implementation requires political will in other parts of the Council of Europe and other bodies, something that is often lacking. Furthermore, there is a noted tendency that officials and politicians often defer to the Venice Commission when a contentious issue is being scrutinised as a way of avoiding having to take a stand on controversial issues.

    The treatment of the previous OSCE High Commissioner on National Minorities, Astrid Thors, by the Russians has been the source of much anger within the expert community. Thors was seen to be denied the opportunity of a second term of office due to robust statements in relation to the situation in Crimea and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, where she hewed close to the line put out by the ODIHR in a public way not previously seen by holders of this security-focused post, who had previously levelled their criticisms behind closed doors[11].

    Election monitoring

    The OSCE’s ODIHR sets the gold standard for election observation in the region, as the only group with a significant long-term presence ahead of ballots taking place and the political independence to take critical stances based on the evidence found. The Institutionally Blind publication had been clear that ‘the OSCE must defend the role of ODIHR in providing long-term election observation, ensuring that it remains an assessment mechanism judging countries election practices, rather than simply becoming a method for information exchange.’ The roundtable audience were broadly in agreement on this, however some notes of caution were sounded over both the high cost of delivering the method of observation that ODHIR provides and the way in which regimes in the region are becoming ever more adept at promoting their own local or regional (e.g. CIS) observers to provide a more pro-Government spin on the election process, sometimes co-opting Western Parliamentarians to give a veneer of international respectability to the narratives fed to their compliant medias. The all too regular role of PACE and OSCE PA observation missions in diluting strong ODIHR messages on political grounds have been well documented by the FPC, ESI and others.

    ODIHR observation faces three particular practical problems. Firstly, forces at the OSCE Permanent Council, most notably Russia, have blocked additional funding to support ODIHR in delivering its missions. This has been exacerbated by the wider budget struggles ODIHR faces, where, for example, extra Warsaw-based staff posts have also been blocked by Russian veto. Secondly, OSCE member states are not providing the number of observers (both long-term and short-term) that ODIHR believes it requires to do its job properly. For example, the ODIHR mission to the (highly contentious) 2016 US Presidential election only received a quarter of the long-term observers that were requested, with local consulates and Embassies having to make up the gap through short-term observers.

    Despite the concerns about the extent to which authoritarian regimes have become adept at diluting the impact of critical ODIHR observation missions, the independent research they produce can still have an impact and can make independent civil society feel that there is some solidarity with their experience from the international community. Clearly there is more other institutions and civil society can do to focus attention on the implementation of observation findings. Roundtable participants also argued that it was unwise and counter-productive for PACE and/or the OSCE PA to send observation missions to countries where ODIHR believes it is unable to operate freely.

    The third problem that the OSCE faces is the lack of implementation of the recommendations which appear in the final report of an ODIHR Election Observation Mission. In the absence of an agreement to provide an obligatory report, all states should be encouraged to voluntarily make a statement as to what they have done to implement the EOM recommendations to the Permanent Council, as some states do already.

    The future of field offices

    The number of field offices for both the OSCE and Council of Europe have been on the wane due to push-back from host countries and geopolitical wrangling at ministerial level[12]. For example, following a decision in May 2017, the OSCE will no longer have a field presence in the South Caucasus due to the withdrawal of the OSCE Office in Yerevan due to an Azerbaijani veto of an extension to its mandate[13]. Even where downgraded missions or offices are able to be on the ground (as ‘project offices’ or ‘project coordinators’), their ability to support independent civil society is limited. The Institutionally Blind publication called for a greater political focus on defending the ability of the CoE and the OSCE to have a meaningful presence on the ground across the region. However, it is clear that at present these organisations are absent from a number of countries, and in several countries where they do have a presence, they are not able to operate freely.

    Roundtable participants were critical of the level of organisational priority given to the country presences, with some Heads of Office and Ambassadors seen as diplomats serving their last post before retirement, lacking the vigour or political will to fight their corner on human rights issues. In challenging political environments, independent civil society has sometimes seen officials reticent to meet with them or speak out on controversial issues. Funding and holding activities that only involve GONGOs (sometimes the only organisations that are officially registered) is seen to undermine the standing of the Council of Europe and OSCE amongst those most active on human rights issues.

    There is a significant debate around whether having any presence in a repressive country is ‘better than nothing’, a platform for future activity and soft engagement, both with the regimes and with civil society. Outspoken activity clearly creates a risk that the permission for the office to exist in a country would be withdrawn. However the roundtable participants argued that the OSCE and CoE need to reassess this approach. They gave two particular examples, the Council of Europe’s office in Azerbaijan and the OSCE Project Coordinator in Uzbekistan, as offices that should be closed, with their presence seen as counter-productive to the reputation and goals of their respective organisations. Therefore both the OSCE and Council of Europe should review the activities of their field offices and consider whether it may be better to withdraw their presence on the ground, at least in capacities relating to human rights and governance reform. The alternative model could be that international donors (such as the EU or UK) directly support the creation of ODIHR project offices for particular countries/regions based out of Warsaw, following the recent EU-backed model ODIHR is developing for the Western Balkans[14].

    Final thoughts

    The discussion at the roundtable ranged widely across the challenges facing the region. It noted a number of additional challenges.

    The first related to the future role of the UK in these organisations. Concerns were raised that ‘Brexit’ could lead to the current Conservative Government reopening its long-held plans to implement a British Bill of Rights and seek to withdraw from the jurisdiction of the European Court of Human Rights, and thereby from the Council of Europe. Despite the Conservative Party’s 2017 manifesto pledge not to withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights in the current parliament[15], given the Prime Minister’s past belief that the UK should withdraw from the Convention[16] and separate political statements that the reason for not withdrawing is due to the focus on achieving Brexit, it is clear that as and when the UK leaves the EU, the discussion around the future of its membership of the Council of Europe will reopen in earnest. However, in the wake of the UK’s departure from the European Union, the OSCE and Council of Europe will become the main pan-regional bodies that the UK remains involved with, making them even more important forums for collaboration and engagement amongst ministers, Parliamentarians and officials.

    The second relates more broadly to the future of these institutions. Created in a different time and in different political contexts, the question of whether they continue to have relevance remains a live issue. Perceptions of corruption need to be cleared from the Council of Europe if it is to reestablish its standing as the European continent’s institutional champion for human rights. The OSCE will continue to be dogged by the challenge of gaining consensus for most of its activities and appointments. With Russia unlikely to relent on that point in the near future, creative ways will need to be found to fund the important work delivered by existing institutions such as the ODIHR.

    As noted above, the future of the UK and Russia in the Council of Europe is far from certain. Similarly, the extent to which Central Asian states stay engaged in Western-facing organisations as US and European regional influence wanes, remains an open question. So the outlook remains cloudy for these institutions, however there remains significant scope for civil society and ethically-minded politicians and officials to help deliver institutional change that can still have an important impact on the standards of human rights, democracy and good governance across the former Soviet Union, Europe and beyond.

    Recommendations

    • Resolve the institutional budget freeze, or find creative solutions to directly fund the activity of the ODIHR and other special mechanisms from EU, UK and other donor funding.
    • Provide adequate staffing for election observation missions and to fill other posts from Western diplomatic services.
    • Improve transparency and accountability of the work of national politicians in the international Parliamentary Assemblies.
    • Fight for better functioning field offices, but where they cannot operate independently and effectively, they should be withdrawn and their functions delivered directly from Strasbourg (CoE), Vienna (OSCE) and Warsaw (ODIHR).

    [1] Often conflated with the EU and its European Court of Justice

    [2] In this paper where there are references to ‘some experts/activists/participants’ this means that this position is based on comments made at the July roundtable by specific people (or groups of people) who were speaking under the Chatham House rule of non-attribution.

    [3] Adam Hug (ed.), Institutionally blind? International organisations and human rights abuses in the former Soviet Union, Foreign Policy Centre, February 2016, http://fpc.org.uk/publications/institutionallyblind

    [4] Reuters, OSCE member states, including Russia, reach deal to fill vacant posts, July 2017,

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-security-osce-idUSKBN19W1KM

    [5] The previous 2016 budget had been approved on 31st December 2015  see OSCE Funding and Budget, http://www.osce.org/funding-and-budget, OSCE, Permanent Council approves OSCE budget for 2017, June 2017, http://www.osce.org/chairmanship/320921 and OSCE, DECISION No. 1197

    APPROVAL OF THE 2016 UNIFIED BUDGET, December 2015,  http://www.osce.org/pc/215416?download=true

    [6] Jennifer Rankin, Council of Europe urged to investigate Azerbaijan bribery allegations, The Guardian, February 2017, https://www.theguardian.com/law/2017/feb/01/council-of-europe-urged-investigate-azerbaijan-bribery-allegations

    [7]PACE, Corruption allegations at PACE: Bureau decides on three-step response, January 2017, http://www.assembly.coe.int/nw/xml/News/News-View-EN.asp?newsid=6514&lang=2&cat=13

    [8] GRECO, Assessment of the Code of Conduct for Members of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, June 2017, https://rm.coe.int/assessment-of-the-code-of-conduct-for-members-of-the-parliamentary-ass/1680728008

    [9] Perhaps reflecting the current state of that party’s Parliamentary politics with some who would otherwise have been considered for Shadow Ministerial posts now looking for new roles in the Parliament.

    [10] Tom Batchelor, Russia cancels payment to Council of Europe after claiming its delegates are being persecuted over Crimea, Independent,  June 2017,  http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-cancels-council-of-europe-payment-members-persecuted-a7816951.html

    [11] Melissa Hooper, Russia and the OSCE: Anatomy of a takedown, Human Rights First, September 2016,

    http://www.humanrightsfirst.org/blog/russia-and-osce-anatomy-takedown-0  See also Christian Nünlist, The OSCE and the Future of European Security, Center for Security Studies (CSS), February 2017, http://www.css.ethz.ch/en/services/digital-library/articles/article.html/214edaf2-cb54-4191-a9de-7dcc719e6a96 Finnish Broadcasting Company, Daily: Russia blocks re-appointment of Finn as OSCE Minorities High Commissioner, August 2016, https://yle.fi/uutiset/osasto/news/daily_russia_blocks_re-appointment_of_finn_as_osce_minorities_high_commissioner/9131135

    [12] OSCE, Closed field operations and related field activities, http://www.osce.org/closed-field-operations

    [13] US Mission to the OSCE,  Statement on the Closure of the OSCE Office in Yerevan, May 2017, https://osce.usmission.gov/statement-closure-osce-office-yerevan/

    [14] OSCE, EU Commissioner Hahn, ODIHR Director Link launch project supporting democratic elections in Western Balkans, June 2017, http://www.osce.org/odihr/elections/325751

    [15] Christopher Hope,  Britain to be bound by European human rights laws for at least another five years even if Tories win election, Daily Telegraph, May 2017 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/18/britain-bound-european-human-rights-laws-least-another-five/

    [16]Anushka Asthana and Rowena Mason, UK must leave European convention on human rights, says Theresa May, April 2016, The Guardian,

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/25/uk-must-leave-european-convention-on-human-rights-theresa-may-eu-referendum

    Footnotes
      Related Articles

      Catalonia’s Nationalist Tragedy – and lessons for Brexit?

      Article by Jacqueline Hale

      Catalonia’s Nationalist Tragedy – and lessons for Brexit?

      Catalonia’s recent independence referendum and outcome is a reminder of nationalism’s flawed promise: The myth of a swift divorce that is also apparent in Britain’s Brexit debâcle. Both cases give us several reasons to remain wary of the siren call of nationalism. First there’s its ugly side: the fact that the act of self-defining against the ‘other’ can start in the just-about-respectable area of national identity, only to slip down the scale into wholly unacceptable xenophobia and ethnocentrism. Two destructive wars started by the quest for ethnic nationhood in Europe hold lessons for how downright dangerous the slippery slope can be. In peacetime, it can be a sliding scale between supporting your country’s football team and engaging in the inter-group violence of hooliganism against your opponent. In Catalonia today, the nationalism of the Catalan leadership is pitted against the nationalism of the Madrid authorities, and there can be no clear winner.

       

      One reason for the impasse is inherent to the very concept of ‘nation’ which takes a one-dimensional approach to identity, so that one cannot be Catalan and Spanish at the same time. This nationalism über alles dangerously subsumes the manifold other identities that make up an individual – your gender, your profession, your political leanings – into one defining and simplifying trait. Yet when individuals are asked to define ourselves, it’s our relationships to family members, being a parent or a sister that will come to the fore. Or we turn inward, to describe our ideals and values, the aspirational motivations we wish to live by, or be seen as living by. It’s rare that our nationality is the dearest thing to us about ourselves.

       

      But, the problem of nationalism goes even deeper. There is also a structural issue which we have seen time and again in secessionist struggles, and which bodes ill for citizens in Catalonia. Look at a map and it doesn’t take long to understand how the patchwork of 193 nation-states which cover the globe and make up the United Nations are part of a system which is structurally stacked in favour of the status quo. The UN Charter, with its clauses providing for the competitive claims of ‘right to self-determination’ and ‘territorial integrity’ is in reality a parti pris for the latter. A Charter signed by and for nation-states, hardly a carte blanche for declarations of independence by would-be leaders of breakaway entities.

       

      This reality is all too clear to Western Saharans who for 42 years have been struggling for a state against Moroccan occupation and international vested interests, or to the Abkhaz in Eastern Europe, who celebrate this year 25 years of nationhood in limbo, despite successive referenda and de facto control over the territory by its authorities (with Russian backing) as they seek to break away from Georgia. Even where the land is not desirable to states – as in the case of the Liberland, a patch of border land unclaimed by Serbia and Croatia the declaration of independence succeeds only in exile. Its self-declared ‘’government’’ of transnational Libertarians has no access to the small patch of 7 km2 of marshy forest that they have claimed because neither the Serbs nor Croats will allow access to the territory. Catalan leaders, some of whom fled to Brussels, are not the first, nor the last to take this exile route.

       

      Why has it come to this? When I lived in Catalonia 15 years ago I saw the seeds of nationalism rooted in the legitimate grievances of the historical past, and flourishing in the then prosperous present. With greater autonomy and policies to support language and culture, the trajectory seemed clear. And it is hard not to be sympathetic, there and elsewhere, to a culture and a ‘people’ who have risen from the ashes of repression, in this case that meted out to Catalans as a minority within Franco’s Spain. It is also easy to sympathise with the underdog when the strong arm of the metropolitan state reaches to slap-down the rising as we saw in the heavy-handed response from the Madrid government in response to the referendum. Yet for all its lofty talk of liberation, the rhetoric of nationalism – whether it’s in Madrid or Barcelona or in London, as we have seen in the debate about the exit from Europe, is necessarily reductive. Whilst citing ‘the people’ in support of its arguments, whether it be the 52% of voters in the June 2016 UK referendum on membership of the EU or the 90% of the voters who voted for independence in Catalunya’s referendum, it ignores questions as to who and where ‘the people are. It also overlooks a low turnout (42% in Catalonia), and the uncomfortable reality that minorities exist, and the homogeneity the nationalists are striving for does not bear likeness to the messy reality and mixed-ness of the modern ’nation’. What to do about Catalans of Castillian or South American origin, or those of Indian origin (the sin papeles who have their own grievances and quests for recognition)? What is the offer for those who want to be Catalans within Spain? These thorny issues will come to a head now. Crucial to either side winning Catalonia’s hearts and minds struggle, and as a matter of both principle and pragmatism, power holders in Catalonia must tend to this.

       

      But here lies the crux of the issue, and the problem for secessionist entities in a system of nation-states: Who are the powerholders, who can confer rights and obligations on citizens? So long as there is no recognition, the problem cannot be solved. No state so far has recognised Catalonia. The EU will not do so for fear of opening a pandora’s box of splittism within existing members. The question of how to accommodate Catalonia within the EU is of an existential nature not only to Spain, but to other states, not least the United Kingdom, with a strong constituency for remain in Scotland, pitted against a majority leave vote in England. Even Kosovo, whose independence struggle was a rare case with much Western political support and interest, does not have recognition across the European Union – Spain notable among those who have withheld recognition. After 25 years in the waiting room to become a state intensive diplomatic campaigning by Abkhazia, with support from Moscow, has yielded recognitions by 4 states.

       

      The ultimate tragedy of these states, and one which we can only hope will not befall Catalonia, is the diminishing rights of their citizens. As the heady euphoria of the declaration of independence subsides and the citizenry heads back into day-to-day realities, upholding other existing rights to work, to travel, to associate, to access to decent education, health care and public services, and to enjoy transparent and accountable governance will become crucial. This is the question that nationalists vying for power – whether in Madrid or Barcelona or elsewhere – never ask enough: What’s the offer in the status quo or in the changed status for the ordinary person from the street? Beyond the symbolic power of self-determination what are the benefits and what are the losses to people’s rights and freedoms, ranging from freedom of movement to freedom of expression? It is ironic that a city like Barcelona, much lauded in recent times for innovative decentralised local governance within the existing system, must now submit to order from Madrid, and yet it remains unclear what kind of space the Catalan nationalist project itself would leave to local government.

       

      As Catalonia risks becoming the latest in a list of territories with unsettled status, the question of how its self-declared authorities will deal with inevitable disappointments and dissent, when fighting a bigger enemy, is crucial. Here Catalonia and Spain need to learn lessons from the latter’s failure to accommodate dissenting voices. For the people of Catalonia, those who voted yes, no, or who simply didn’t go to the polls, the system and authority which guarantees their rights – beyond the right to self-determination – becomes critical now. In Catalonia as in Brexitland the quest to live well – self-actualisation – may be bound up with the right of national self-determination and recognition, but at an individual and community level it requires much more: a social contract, and a working system of rules and guarantees, institutions providing for democratic accountability, and ongoing connectedness to the outside world. As they go about their daily lives and to live out their multiple identities amongst their families and communities people in Catalonia risk losing these rights as the region submits to Madrid, whilst the rest of the EU stays lukewarm. Those who purport to represent them – whether in the Catalan Generalitat or in Madrid’s governing parties must not retreat to elite squabbles and desert people in Catalonia now.

      Footnotes
        Related Articles

        FPC Briefing: The capitalist case for renewables

        Article by Dr Sam Fowles

        FPC Briefing: The capitalist case for renewables

        In his book, More Human, former Downing Street policy chief Steve Hilton argues that, in certain sectors, despite the rhetoric of the ‘free-market’, enterprises succeed by ‘entrenching their advantages through political power’, rather than on ‘their own merits’.[1] For Hilton, ‘capitalism is a force for good, but its distortion into private sector bureaucracy, with uncompetitive markets dominated by entrenched corporations, is a fundamental malaise.’[2] In this briefing I argue that energy is one of those sectors. Companies that produce energy using fossil fuels or nuclear power succeed through rent-seeking behaviour, supported by the power of the state. The, more innovative, renewable energy sector, is, by contrast, generally hampered. This is the case even in states that claim to prioritise addressing climate change. With renewables increasingly competing with fossil fuels in terms of cost[3], now is the time to review our approach to the economics of energy.

         

        On both the left and right of the political spectrum there is a growing consensus that climate change cannot be addressed without a fundamental overhaul of the capitalist political-economy. On the right, US Chamber of Commerce President, Thomas J. Donohue says; “There is no way this [ambitious carbon reduction] can be done without fundamentally changing the American way of life, choking off economic development, and putting large segments of the economy out of business.”[4] On the left, author Naomi Klein agrees; ‘As soon as they admit that climate change is real they [supporters of capitalist, free-market economies] will lose the central ideological battle of our time – whether we need to plan and manage our societies to reflect our goals and values, or whether that can be left to the magic of the market.’[5]

         

        Klein sees this as a positive opportunity to create fairer global economic structures. Donohue, by contrast, sees climate change discourses as a Trojan horse by which those on the left seek to undermine market capitalism.[6] Both are mistaken. While transitioning to a renewable dominated energy sector will not, alone, halt climate change, it will make a sizeable impact. This transition can be achieved within a traditional market-based political-economy.

         

        Subsidies

        States provide two levels of subsidy for fossil fuels. ‘Pre-tax’ subsidies are direct payments (or discounts) to fossil fuel energy producers. These include tax breaks, the right to offset capital expenditure or losses beyond that enjoyed by other enterprises, logistical assistance, and direct grants.

         

        ‘Post-tax’ subsidies occur when governments pay the cost of the externalities of fossil fuel energy. This includes the cost caused by the pollution of rivers, streams and earth, air pollution, and climate change. This may be an indirect subsidy, but it is a subsidy nonetheless. In a functioning market-economy the cost of a product reflects the cost of its manufacture. The cost of manufacture is the loss incurred by the producer in order to create that product. When the product cannot be manufactured by a single producer, the cost of the product will reflect the loss suffered by all those who contributed to production (for example, the salaries of workers and the prices of materials and premises). If they can manufacture their product at a lower price than other market agents are prepared to pay for it, then they will make a profit. If they cannot, they will have no incentive to continue manufacturing their product. In the case of fossil fuels the true cost of manufacture includes the losses inflicted on people by the emissions generated by the burning of those fuels. These include the degrading of the local environment (which can be reflected in land-values or house prices), the cost of air pollution (which amounts to an estimated £10.7bn p.a. in the UK)[7], and the costs of climate change. In the case of nuclear energy, the cost of manufacture includes the losses inflicted on individuals and the state in disposing of nuclear waste. This includes impacts on land values and house prices and the cost of containing radioactive waste, potentially for hundreds of years.[8] These costs are not fully incorporated into the price of fossil fuel or nuclear energy. They are either borne by the victims (such as local property owners) or the state. Governments are, in effect, ‘picking up the tab’ for part of the cost of production.

         

        This means that the consumer price for fossil fuel or nuclear energy is artificially lowered because it only has to account for part of the cost of production. Individuals, in effect, pay twice for fossil fuel or nuclear energy: once directly, when they pay their energy bill, and once indirectly, when the money they pay in taxes goes towards covering the costs of the fossil fuel and nuclear energy industries’ externalities.

         

        Pre-Tax Subsidies

        Global pre-tax energy subsidies amount to $500bn per year.[9] This represents 0.5% of the world’s GDP.[10] The UK pays fossil fuel producers a subsidy of £9.6bn per year.[11] In the UK this is delivered primarily through tax breaks and direct spending.[12] £5.9bn of this is given to domestic fossil fuel companies, £3.7bn is given to fossil fuel companies abroad, including in Russia, China, and India.[13] The UK also pays a pre-tax subsidy to the nuclear industry, paying a share of the start-up costs for new nuclear projects or guaranteeing a price for nuclear energy that is above market-value.[14] The UK is the only state in the G20 to actually increase pre-tax subsidies to fossil fuel companies after the 2015 Paris Agreement.[15] Pre-tax subsidies of this kind undermine the concept of a “free market”. It means that, in the energy market, success is not determined by the ability to produce a better product at a lower price than one’s competitors. Rather, it is determined by the ability to convince the government give one a special advantage. The success of energy companies becomes dependent, not on their ability to produce the best product, but on the effectiveness of their lobbying operation. This undermines the market mechanism. The utility of the market lies in its ability to drive innovation through fair competition. When government intervenes and “picks winners”, as it does in the energy sector, the incentives to innovate are reduced. Consumers therefore pay higher prices for lower quality products.[16]

         

        Governments do not offer renewable energy an equivalent level of subsidy to fossil fuel companies. Global subsidies to renewables amount to around $120bn per year.[17] In the UK they are capped at £7.6bn per year, this is expected to rise to £9.1bn by 2020.[18] Clearly the UK government is providing an artificial advantage to both renewable energy and fossil fuels. It is not, however, providing the same artificial advantage. The fossil fuel industry receives at least half a billion per year, and as much as £2bn per year, more than the renewable energy industry.

         

        This analysis comes with a caveat: fossil fuels provide a substantially larger proportion of the energy consumed in the UK than renewables. The subsidy per kilowatt-hour (KwH) is therefore higher for renewables than it is for fossil fuels, even though it is lower overall. Presenting the data in this way might be construed as a point in favour of fossil fuels: as things currently stand the price the government pays (in terms of subsidy) for one KwH of fossil fuel energy is lower than the price it pays for one KwH of renewable energy. Such an argument, however, ignores the broader macroeconomic picture. Fossil fuels represent a substantially larger proportion of the energy market than renewables. An analysis of subsidies based on the subsidy per KwH will not (and likely cannot accurately) take into account what the subsidy per KwH would be required for renewables if the renewable energy sector enjoyed a market share equivalent to that which is currently enjoyed by fossil fuels. The data to make such a comparison simply does not yet exist so it is difficult to make a fair comparison. There is no evidence to suggest that the level of subsidy is directly proportionate to the total market share. Indeed, the benefits of economies of scale and increased gross income would suggest that, the larger the market share, the less a producer should require subsidy (in a functional market). A purely theoretical (and very basic) analysis would indicate that a renewable energy sector with an increased market share would require a smaller subsidy per KwH than it does at the moment. It would be a mistake, however, to set much store by such speculation because the model does not yet exist that takes into account a sufficient range of factors. In short, while comparing gross subsidies is clearly an imperfect method, it is preferable to comparing price per KwH because it is, at least, based actual data. It is fair to say that the gross pre-tax subsidy enjoyed by fossil fuel producers is larger than that enjoyed by renewable energy.

         

        Post-Tax Subsidies

        The level of pre-tax subsidy to fossil fuels is dwarfed by the level of post-tax subsidy. Globally, states provide the fossil fuel industry with around $5.3tn per year in post-tax subsidy.[19] This amounts to 6.3% of global GDP.[20] The precise level of post-tax subsidy in the UK is unclear. It is, however, obvious that it is significant. All EU states impose a carbon price on fossil fuels. This should, in theory, impose the cost of fossil fuel’s externalities on fossil fuel companies by attaching a price to carbon emissions.[21] Part of the scheme is a carbon price floor, which establishes a minimum price for carbon. In the UK, however, the carbon price floor has been frozen since 2014. The UK government at the time justified this freeze on the grounds that it would reduce costs for businesses. This means that, while the cost of everything else has gone up (as a result of in-built inflation) the cost of carbon has remained static. The UK has, in practice, picked up more of the tab for fossil fuel’s externalities every year since 2014.

         

        As a result, a large part of the cost of fossil fuels is borne by the taxpayer. The principle externalities of fossil fuels are climate change and air pollution. Climate change represents around 25% of the post-tax subsidy[22]. Air pollution represents the far larger share. The global cost of air pollution was $225bn in 2015. In the UK air pollution kills around 40 000 people every year the health impacts of air pollution cost between £8.5bn and £20bn per year.[23] Given that the total annual NHS budget was £126.5bn in 2016,[24] this is a significant cost.[25]

         

        The headline figures, however, present only part of the picture. While the bulk of global post-tax subsidies are paid by states in the Global South, a sizeable proportion of that subsidy goes to power manufacturing of products for use in the Global North.[26] Rich states have, in effect, outsourced pollution to the global south. Any calculation of the UK’s post-tax subsidy to fossil fuel must, therefore, take account of the subsidy paid by Southern states on the UK’s behalf.[27]

         

        Renewable energy, by contrast, receives minimal post-tax subsidy. In general, all the externalities of renewables are included in the price.[28] The externalities of a wind farm, for example, include the visual impact on the environment and occasional bio-diversity issues. These are addressed in the planning process. The costs of this process (which include the legal and administrative costs of the planning application and any subsequent hearings but also the costs of any modification to the development that are required as a condition of approval) are borne by the developer. The developer must, therefore, either bear the cost herself or incorporate it into the price of the energy generated by the wind farm. The combined subsidy for fossil fuels thus vastly outweighs that for renewables. Subsidy means that consumers do not pay the true price for a product. While subsidy distorts the price of renewables as well as fossil fuels and nuclear energy, it does so to a vastly greater extent in the case of the latter. Indeed, certain estimates indicate that solar and wind power are already cheaper than fossil fuels, even within the current structure of subsidies.[29]

         

        Non-Financial Barriers to Renewables

        Governments erect non-financial barriers to renewables and, conversely, offer non-financial assistance to fossil fuels that can’t be quantified in the calculation of pre-tax or post-tax subsidies. Two examples of this are public policy barriers to renewables and the tendency for governments and ministers to ‘talk down’ renewables. Both chill the development of and investment in renewable energy and, at the same time, benefit fossil fuels and nuclear energy.

         

        Policy Barriers

        Renewable energy is increasingly cost competitive with nuclear or fossil fuels even given the disparity in subsidies. In the UK offshore wind producers are able to produce energy for a lower price than equivalent fossil fuel or nuclear projects. The price of building windfarms themselves has fallen by nearly a third since 2012[30] In 2016 solar power was the fastest grown method for energy generation globally and renewables accounted for two thirds of new capacity added to the world’s grids.[31] Policy barriers, however, make it more difficult to pursue renewable projects than it is to pursue fossil fuel or nuclear projects. In Australia, the Clean Energy Finance Corp was established to invest in renewable projects. The Abbot government introduced regulations in 2013 to prevent it from investing in wind or small-scale solar power, both areas with the potential to drive competition and innovation in the sector.[32] This limited competition to fossil fuels and nuclear energy in the domestic energy sector. In the UK, the Cameron government introduced additional planning tests for windfarms, requiring a two-stage test in addition to the procedures to which other planning applications are subjected.[33] This contrasts with that administration’s attitude to the development of a new nuclear power-station at Hinkley, which was granted a Development Consent Order,[34] which speeds up the process of obtaining planning permission. Renewable energy projects thus face additional planning hurdles while projects like Hinkley enjoy a fast track through the normal planning requirements.

         

        Government’s also erect policy barriers by giving complaints against renewable projects greater prominence and consequence than complaints about fossil fuels. In Australia the Abbot government established the ‘Wind Farm Commissioner’,[35] an agency dedicated to investigating and acting on complaints about windfarms. There is no equivalent body for complaints relating to fossil fuels or nuclear projects. Local communities in the UK are able to veto new windfarms, even if they otherwise conform to planning requirements and strategies. By contrast, when local communities have opposed planning applications for new fracking sites, the Secretary of State has used her executive power to overrule them.[36] The effect of this public-policy imbalance is that the weight of the state more is more often put behind fossil fuel and nuclear projects than renewables.

         

        ‘Talking Down’ Renewables

        ‘Talking down’ renewables makes it more difficult for renewable energy projects to secure investment or backing from local communities. Governments give credence to negative myths about renewables, often created by fossil fuel lobbyists.[37] By repeating these myths, even though they often have no basis in fact, governments give them greater credibility in the minds of the public and investors.

         

        In the UK the Cameron government promoted the myth that renewables are more expensive than fossil fuels (as argued above, this is not true, fossil fuels are just more heavily subsidised). Cameron himself told the House of Commons that a more stringent decarbonisation target would cost bill-payers an additional £120 per year.[38] At the time this had already been shown to be false.[39] Direct misinformation such as this is comparatively rare. More often ministers engage in a discourse in which the myth is implied rather than explicitly stated. Cameron’s Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change, Amber Rudd, justified the government’s decision to reduce support for renewables by claiming that the government was focused on offering consumers “value for money”.[40] This was misleading because the alternative, fossil fuels, receive more extensive subsidies and yet did not lose subsidies. Earlier, Michael Fallon (then Business and Energy Minister) argued that freezing the carbon price floor was necessary to cut costs for business. This is a misleading statement. It assumes that there is no alternative to fossil fuels and that the carbon price represented an additional charge, not a mechanism for ensuring the price of energy represents its true cost.

         

        The cost myth is enhanced by the structure of subsidies. In the UK subsidies for renewables are added directly to the price of energy and so are reflected directly in an increase in consumers’ bills. Subsidies for fossil fuels come out of general taxation. The cost of the fossil fuel subsidy, although significantly larger than that of renewables, is therefore far less apparent to consumers. This creates the (false) impression that renewable energy is more expensive than fossil fuels or nuclear power. It represents a direct intervention in the market, by government, giving fossil fuels and nuclear energy an artificial advantage by misleading consumers.

         

        Another often promoted myth is that renewables damage energy security. In Australia the Turnbull government attributed blackouts in South Australia to that state’s reliance on windfarms. This was contrary to the government’s own expert advice, which suggested the blackouts were, in fact, the result of damage to the grid caused by high winds.[41] This is another example of a government misleading consumers to the detriment of the renewables sector.

         

        The combination of regulatory barriers and ‘talking down’ renewables creates an unfavourable and, often, uncertain regulatory climate. This has a chilling effect on investment in renewables.[42] Investment drives research so chilling investment means that progress towards making renewables cheaper and more efficient is slowed. The Abbot government’s regulatory barriers resulted in an 18th month freeze in investment in the Australian renewables sector. A 95% decline in investment in renewables in the UK since 2011 is attributable to the policies of the Cameron government.[43] Before that administration took office renewables were projected to be cheaper than fossil fuels without subsidy (even with the subsidy for fossil fuels remaining in place) by 2025.[44] By chilling investment in renewables, the Cameron government protected the fossil fuel industry from competition.

         

        The case for ending assistance

        The economic case for ending subsidies for fossil fuels and nuclear energy is simple: it will stimulate competition in the energy market and save treasuries considerable sums. Ending pre-tax subsidies is relatively simple. It requires ending direct payments, tax breaks, and other preferential treatment. For example, the UK government has promised EDF Energy a price of £92.50 per megawatt hour for electricity generated at the Hinkley C nuclear power station.[45] This represents a premium of more than 100% over the market price per megawatt hour (£45). The fossil fuel industry also benefits from tailored tax breaks.[46] Ending pre-tax subsidies requires ending schemes like these.

         

        Ending Subsidies

        Ending post-tax subsidies requires imposing the cost of pollution on polluters. Although there have been steps, most prominently by the EU, to address this, these generally only address a small portion of fossil fuel’s externalities.[47]

         

        The IMF recommends a ‘Pigouvian tax’ on fossil fuels.[48] This is a direct tax that imposes the full cost of externalities on the payer. Critics of Pigouvian taxes argue that they represent government intervention in free markets. But markets cannot be free if they are not also functional. Regulatory intervention is acceptable in a free market if it ensures the market functions more effectively by ensuring costs are correctly located. Environmental externalities are a paradigmatic example of a situation in which a government should intervene. As Milton Friedman, one of the last century’s leading proponents of free-market economics and an inspiration to both the Thatcher and Regan governments, put it:

         

        “The man who pollutes the stream is in effect forcing others to exchange good water for bad. These others might be willing to make the exchange at a price. But it is not feasible for them, acting individually, to avoid the exchange or enforce appropriate compensation.”[49]

         

        A Pigouvian tax on emissions would not, then, represent a distortion of the free market, but a restoration of market functionality. It will impose the true cost of production on companies, and thereby ensure the price of fossil fuel and nuclear energy reflects the true costs of production.

         

        The IMF estimates a Pigouvian tax, combined with the end of pre-tax subsidies, will raise $1.8 trillion[50] globally. The principle purpose of the tax is not, however, to raise revenue. Rather it is to ensure the correct market agents bear the cost of pollution and to cease state-aid for fossil fuels, thereby restoring functionality to the energy market. While savings from the end of pre-tax subsidies will remain static, revenue from a Pigouvian tax will likely decline as nuclear and fossil fuel projects become unaffordable without the assistance of subsidies and are cancelled.

         

        Market Space for Renewables

        Ending subsidies to nuclear and fossil fuels will, in the short term, likely increase prices for consumers. If energy is more expensive to produce (because the government no longer picks up part of the cost), it will appear more expensive to buy. In reality the cost will not have changed, it will simply have been consolidated into the consumer price, rather than split between the consumer price and general taxation. The increased consumer price is unlikely to have a negative effect on the spending power of individuals because there will be a corresponding easing of the pressure on public finances. This creates space for targeted welfare provision for poorer households (who tend to spend a larger proportion of their income on energy) in the short term. Higher fossil fuel prices can be offset by tax cuts or improved public services paid for with the public money that would otherwise have been spent on the subsidy.

         

        Further, any increase in the consumer price of fossil fuels will be largely or completely offset by the increase in investment in renewables and the consequent decline in the cost of renewable energy. When the Abbot government’s regulatory attacks on renewables were counterbalanced by state support, after a series of power outages, investment picked up and the cost of generating large scale solar declined by 50% in two years.[51] If fossil fuels and nuclear power bear their true cost this will also stimulate the market for household solar. While the higher cost of fossil fuel or nuclear based energy will increase the incentive to make the (relatively) high upfront investment required for rooftop solar, the increased investment in the sector will also create more space for the development of innovative financial products to defray these costs. Increased investment will also create more space for research and development of battery and other energy storage technologies, hastening the point at which the (expensive) national grid infrastructure is less necessary. The medium-term (or, with appropriate public policy measures, short-term) impact of eliminating subsidies to fossil fuel and nuclear energy will, in reducing both the price of energy (as a result of the technological change driven by the short-term increase in the price to represent the true cost) and the tax burden, therefore be overwhelmingly positive for consumers.

         

        Conclusion

        The transition to renewable energy does not require a wholesale redesign of our political economy. It can, and should, be achieved within a traditional, capitalist, market-based system. Fossil fuels and nuclear benefit from extensive state aid. This comes in the form of subsidies, regulatory assistance, and political support. By contrast, while renewables benefit from a limited subsidy, this is not on the same scale as that enjoyed by fossil fuels and nuclear. Further, renewable energy faces significant regulatory and public policy hurdles that are not imposed on fossil fuels and nuclear power. The transition to renewable energy, and its consequential impact in the fight against climate change, can therefore be achieved within the assumptions of a capitalist political economy. Removing subsidies to nuclear and fossil fuels and reducing government intervention in the market to the limited role of ensuring the costs of energy production are imposed on the correct market agents will represent a significant boost to renewables. Indeed, if applied in a functional manner, capitalism may yet prove to be the saviour of the environment.

        [1] Scott Bade and Steve Hilton, More Human, (New York; W.H. Allen, 2015), p. 196

        [2] Ibid. p. 196

        [3] See, for example, Damian Carrington, “Spectacular drop in renewable energy cost leads to record global boost”, The Guardian, (6th June 2017), available at https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jun/06/spectacular-drop-in-renewable-energy-costs-leads-to-record-global-boost (last accessed 4th October 2017)

        [4] Quoted in Naomi Klein, This Changes Everything: Capitalism vs the Climate, (New York; Penguin, 2015), p. 31

        [5] Ibid., p. 40

        [6] Ibid., pp. 30-63

        [7] House of Commons Environmental Audit Committee, “3 costs of poor air quality”, available at https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200910/cmselect/cmenvaud/229/22906.htm (last accessed 30th September 2017)

        [8] Union of Concerned Scientists, “Nuclear Power Costs”, available at http://www.ucsusa.org/nuclear-power/cost-nuclear-power#.Wc_i2q10fBI (last accessed 30th September 2017)

        [9] D. Coady, I. Parry, L. Shears, and B. Shang, “How Large Are Global Energy Subsidies?”, IMF Working Paper, WP/15.105, p. 17

        [10] Ibid, p. 17

        [11] E. Bast, A. Doukas, S. Pickard, L. van der Burg, S. Whitley, “Empty Promises: G20 Subsidies to Oil, Gas, and Coal Production”, (Overseas Development Institute and Oil Change International, 2015), analysis synthesised by Damian Carrington, “UK becomes only G7 country to increase fossil fuel subsidies”, The Guardian, (12th November 2016), available at https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/nov/12/uk-breaks-pledge-to-become-only-g7-country-increase-fossil-fuel-subsidies (last accessed 30th June 2017)

        [12] Ibid, p. 2. The authors of the ODI report apply the World Trade Organisation definition of subsidies as (a) ‘national subsidies delivered through direct spending and tax breaks…’, (b) ‘investments by majority state-owned enterprises…’, and (c) ‘public finance from majority government owned banks and financial institutions…’. The subsidies provided by the UK fall primarily into the first class.

        [13] Ibid

        [14] See, for example, the case of the Hinckley C nuclear power station as described in Andrew Ward, “Subsidy for Hinkley nuclear power station quintuples to £30bn”, Financial Times, (13th July 2016), available at https://www.ft.com/content/b8e24306-48e5-11e6-8d68-72e9211e86ab (last accessed 30th June 2017)

        [15] Bast et al., n. 8

        [16] For a more detailed exposition of this idea see Milton Friedman, Capitalism and Freedom, 40th Anniversary ed., (London; University of Chicago Press, 2002), pp. 22-37

        [17] Damien Carrington, “Fossil fuels subsided by $10m a minute says IMF”, The Guardian, (18th May 2015), available at https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/may/18/fossil-fuel-companies-getting-10m-a-minute-in-subsidies-says-imf (last accessed 30th June 2017)

        [18] “Controlling the consumer-funded cost of energy policies: The Levy Control Framework”, “National Audit Office”, HC 725, Session 2016-17, 16th October 2016, p. 4

        [19] Coady et al. n. 4, p. 4

        [20] Ibid., p. 4

        [21] This has limited utility as fossil fuel companies are still allowed a certain base level of emissions “for free”.

        [22] Ibid., p. 6

        [23] Environmental Audit Committee, “Air Quality”, para. 22, available at https://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200910/cmselect/cmenvaud/229/22906.htm (last accessed 30th June 2017)

        [24] Kingsfund, “The NHS Budget and How it Has Changed”, available at https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/projects/nhs-in-a-nutshell/nhs-budget (last accessed 30th June 2017)

        [25] Coady et. al. (n. 4) do not provide a country by country breakdown but, given the costs listed above, it is safe to assume that the UK subsidy is substantial.

        [26] “European Union CO2 Emissions: Different Accounting Perspectives”, European Environmental Agency Technical Report No. 20/2013, (2013), pp. 7-8

        [27] The exact level of post-tax subsidy in Northern states, adjusted for the contribution of Southern states, is not available and the required research and calculation, while undoubtedly a valuable exercise, is beyond the scope of this paper.

        [28] It has been argued that hydroelectric energy has environmental and social costs that are not included in the price of energy (see, for example, Ryan S. D. Calder, Amina T. Schartup, Miling Li, Amelia P. Valberg, Prentiss H. Balcom, and Elsie M. Sunderland, “Future Impacts of Hydroelectric Power Development on Methylmercury Exposures of Canadian Indigenous Communities”, 50 Environmental Science and Technology 23, pp. 13115-13122), as hydroelectricity represents a relatively minor (and decreasing) proportion of renewable energy generated in the UK (see Department for Energy and Climate Change, “Digest of UK Energy Statistics”, (2012-2016)), this has only a minor bearing on this analysis.

        [29] Andrew Griffin, “Solar and wind power cheaper than fossil fuels for the first time”, The Independent, (4th January 2017), available at http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/solar-and-wind-power-cheaper-than-fossil-fuels-for-the-first-time-a7509251.html (last accessed 30th September 2017)s

        [30] Adam Vaughan, “Nuclear plans should be rethought after fall in offshore windfarm costs”, The Guardian, (11th September 2017), available at https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/sep/11/huge-boost-renewable-power-offshore-windfarm-costs-fall-record-low (last accessed 4th October 2017)

        [31] Adam Vaughan, “Time to shine: Solar power is fastest growing source of new energy”, The Guardian, (4th October 2017), available at https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/oct/04/solar-power-renewables-international-energy-agency (last accessed 4th October 2017)

        [32] Jennifer Macey, Australian government attacks renewables, Deutsche Welle, (5th October 2015), available at http://www.dw.com/en/australian-government-attacks-renewables/a-18626227 (last accessed 30th June 2017)

        [33] House of Commons: Written Statement (HCWS42), Ref. ID: 5-033-150618, 18th June 2015, para. 33

        [34] Hinkley Point C (Nuclear Generating Station) Order 2013

        [35] Macey, n. 17

        [36] See, for example, Adam Vaughan, “Fracking given UK go-ahead as Lancashire council rejection overturned”, The Guardian, (6th October 2016), available at https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/oct/06/uk-fracking-given-go-ahead-as-lancashire-council-rejection-is-overturned (last accessed 30th June 2017)

        [37] Irene Quaile, “Fossil fuels: is the empire striking back?”, Deutsche Welle, (25th April 2017), available at http://www.dw.com/en/fossil-fuels-is-the-empire-striking-back/a-38574879 (last accessed 6th July 2017)

        [38] House of Commons, “Prime Ministers Question’s: 9th October 2013”, available at http://www.parliament.uk/business/news/2013/october/prime-ministers-questions-9-october-2013/ (last accessed 30th June 2017)

        [39] Will Straw, “How a decarbonisation target will lead to lower energy bills”, Institute for Public Policy Research”, (4th March 2013), available at http://www.ippr.org/news-and-media/comment/how-a-decarbonisation-target-will-lead-to-lower-energy-bills (last accessed 30th June 2017)

        [40] Emily Gosden, “Amber Rudd: end to pursuit of green energy at all costs”, The Telegraph, (15th November 2015), available at http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/energy/11994954/Amber-Rudd-end-to-pursuit-of-green-energy-at-all-costs.html (last accessed 30th June 2017)

        [41] Gareth Hutchens, “Turnbull ignored advice that renewable energy not to blame for SA blackouts”, The Guardian, (12th February 2017), available at https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/feb/13/turnbull-ignored-advice-that-renewable-energy-not-to-blame-for-sa-blackouts (last accessed 30th June 2017)

        [42] Coady et al. n. 4, p. 4

        [43] Adam Vaughan, “Renewables investment in UK will fall 95% over next three years – study”, The Guardian, (4th January 2017) https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jan/04/renewables-investment-uk-fall-95-percent-three-years-study-subsidy-cuts-emissions-targets (last accessed 30th June 2017)

        [44] Ibid.

        [45] Andrew Ward, “Subsidy for Hinkley nuclear power station quintuples to £30bn”, Financial Times, (13th July 2016), available at https://www.ft.com/content/b8e24306-48e5-11e6-8d68-72e9211e86ab (last accessed 30th June 2017)

        [46] See, for example, Tom Bawden, “UK Government Pays £6bn a year in subsidies to fossil fuel industry”, The Independent, (12th November 2015), available at http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/uk-government-pays-6bn-a-year-in-subsidies-to-fossil-fuel-industry-a6730946.html (last accessed 6th July 2017)

        [47] See, for example, the discussion of the EU “cap and trade” scheme above.

        [48] Coady et al., n. 4, p. 5

        [49] Friedman, n. 12, p. 30

        [50] Coady et al., n. 6, p. 5

        [51]  Ineke Mules, “Australia launches overdue shift to solar”, Deutsche Welle, (5th April 2017), available at

        http://www.dw.com/en/australia-launches-overdue-shift-to-solar/a-38307153 (last accessed 30th June 2017)

        Footnotes
          Related Articles

          Tajikistan: The trans-nationalisation of domestic struggles

          Article by Dr Edward Lemon

          November 21, 2017

          In 2014, Maksud Ibragimov, a 37 year old businessman from Tajikistan living in Russia established an organisation called Youth for the Revival of Tajikistan (Javonon Boroi Ehyohi Tojikiston).[1] He toured Russia criticising the government of Tajikistan and calling on migrants to join his reformist movement. Ibragimov was arrested by the Russian police based on a warrant issued by the government of Tajikistan in November 2014. But, as a Russian passport holder, he was swiftly released. An unknown assailant stabbed Ibragimov near his Moscow home shortly after. Five officers from the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation arrested Ibragimov in January 2015.[2] They took him to the local Prosecutor’s Office but did not formally charge him. When he left the building, he was detained by unidentified men who took him to the airport and put him in the baggage hold of a plane. The Tajik government did not acknowledge that Ibragimov was back in Tajikistan until June 2015, when he was sentenced to 17 years in prison on a host of charges including extremism.[3]

           

          Ibragimov is not alone. Often considered Central Asia’s ‘weakest’ state, Tajikistan has nonetheless created a relatively sophisticated network through which it monitors and targets opponents abroad.[4] Since 2002, the government of Tajikistan has targeted at least 51 of its citizens living abroad, subjecting them to harassment, intimidation, attack, detention, kidnapping and assassination.[5] Such occurrences are becoming more frequent. Whereas just nine cases took place before 2010, since 2014 there have been 33 recorded cases. Legally extraditing citizens has proven difficult.

           

          Instead, the government of Tajikistan has overwhelmingly relied on extraordinary rendition, the forcible return of citizens, without legal process. At least eighteen cases of successful extraordinary rendition have occurred since 2002. The majority of cases – 37 in total – have occurred in Russia where over one million Tajik citizens reside, with seven further incidents having taken place in Turkey.[6] These figures, based on publicly available sources, are likely just the tip of the iceberg. There are indications that the scale of this campaign against exiled critics is much larger. In September 2016, Minister of Interior Ramazon Rahimzoda announced that since 2015, 151 ‘extremists,’ including 133 members of Islamic State, had been rendered to Tajikistan, with 75 of them returning ‘voluntarily.’[7] There are currently 1661 citizens of Tajikistan on the INTERPOL wanted list, 1400 of them are accused of terrorism and extremism.[8]

           

          This chapter discusses who the government of Tajikistan has targeted, what kinds of measures it has adopted and the ways in which those targeted can resist these extraterritorial security practices.

           

          Targets

          The government of Tajikistan has targeted six types of opponent living abroad. First, it has targeted members of terrorist organisations, who seek to violently replace the government, such as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), Jamaat Ansurallah, and Islamic State.[9] Second, it has targeted revolutionary Islamic movements, such as Hizb ut-Tahrir, whose members seek to transform the status quo, while denying they will use violence to do so. Third, the government has targeted members of the accommodational Islamic opposition party, the Islamic Renaissance Party, which remains committed to the secular state. Fourth, the government has taken measures against secular opposition movements such as Group 24 and Youth for the Revival of Tajikistan. Lastly, it has taken aim at former regime insiders and commanders who sided with the opposition during the country’s civil war. Sixth, it has targeted journalists and activists, many of whom have criticised the government’s poor human rights record.

           

          Over time, the profile of those targeted by the government has changed. Whereas many of those targeted before 2014 were members of the civil war-era opposition or former regime insiders, since 2014, as Tajikistan has transitioned to a post-reconciliation period, most targets have been linked to the secular and religious opposition. In the years following the country’s civil war, which ended in 1997, the regime pursued a number of individuals who had once held positions in the government. Yakub Salimov, who served as Minister of Interior between 1992 and 1995, and was blamed for an attempted coup in 1997, was rendered from Moscow in 2003.[10] Another government opponent, Mahmadruzi Iskandarov, leader of the Democratic Party of Tajikistan, was also accused of planning a coup and rendered from Russia in 2005.[11] Businessman and former deputy in the Sughd regional parliament Nizomkhon Juraev was abducted and forcibly returned to Tajikistan in 2012 to face smuggling charges.[12] In 2013, former Prime Minister Abdulmalik Abullojonov who left Tajikistan in 1994 was detained in Kiev based on an Interpol warrant for his arrest.[13] During this period, the government of Tajikistan also targeted other civil war era opponents linked to the United Tajik Opposition, as well as those accused of being members of Islamic extremist organisations Hizb ut-Tahrir and the IMU.

           

          Since 2014, the government has mainly targeted members of secular and religious opposition groups. Shortly after Group 24 leader Umarali Quvvatov called for protests in Tajikistan in October 2014, Russian and Belarussian police arrested at least 17 of his followers. The Tajik government has also targeted members of the Islamic Renaissance Party, which was declared a terrorist organisation in September 2015.[14] Party leader Muhiddin Kabiri was added to the INTERPOL wanted list in September 2016.[15] Finally, the government has targeted those attempting to join Islamic State in Syria and Iraq. In May 2016, Minister of Interior Ramazon Rahimzoda claimed that 1,400 citizens had travelled to take part in hostilities in the Middle East.[16] Most are recruited whilst working in Russia.[17] Having discussed those targeted, I will now examine the measures that the government has taken outside of its territorial borders.

           

          Measures

          The government of Tajikistan has adopted a range of measures against opponents residing abroad, including assassination, physical attack, intimidation, surveillance, and extraordinary rendition. In March 2015, leader of Group 24 Umarali Quvvatov was assassinated in Istanbul. Poisoned and then shot by his friend Suleiman Kayumov, his death came after a two year struggle by the government of Tajikistan to extradite him to his home country. At least three other citizens – academic Bakhtiyor Sartori, opposition leader Maksud Ibragimov and journalist Dodojon Atuvullo – have been attacked by unknown assailants in Russia. Numerous others have been threatened by the security services. Exiled journalist Gulnora Ravshan, who left Tajikistan in 2013 after being accused of spying for Uzbekistan, for example, received a number of threatening calls from the Tajik security services while living in Turkey. In February 2015, she realised she was being followed on a regular basis by an unknown man; she regularly received calls from a Tajik-speaking man asking her about what she was doing in Turkey.[18] In at least two cases, the security service’s threats of reprisals against family members still in Tajikistan resulted in the individuals ‘voluntarily’ returning home to face charges.[19] Indeed, rendering the citizens back to Tajikistan to face criminal charges is the central goal that lies behind the Tajik government’s activities abroad.

          At least 49 political opponents have been the targets of attempted extraordinary rendition since 2002, with 18 individuals successfully returned to Tajikistan. As far as I can ascertain, all of these cases of extraordinary rendition bypass international law, operating through informal measures. A pattern emerges from the known cases of extraordinary rendition. First, the Prosecutor General of Tajikistan issues an arrest warrant and distributes it to foreign governments. After this, an individual is detained in their host country and held in pre-trial detention. Often released after the maximum time for detention without trial elapses, the individual is then kidnapped by the security services of Tajikistan, often in collaboration with representatives of the host government. Following this, they are taken back to Tajikistan without formally passing through state borders.

           

          Resisting

          Two thirds of those targeted by the government of Tajikistan have managed to resist its efforts to render them. Those detained awaiting extradition to Tajikistan have used two principal tools to fight extradition and the risk of extraordinary rendition: domestic law in the country where they were detained and international law. The majority of cases have involved people being detained in Russia. Once they have received notification from the Prosecutor General of the Russian Federation that it has decided to extradite them to Tajikistan, detainees can lodge an appeal against this decision. When this is invariably dismissed by the court, they can apply for political asylum with the Federal Migration Service (FMS). If denied asylum, they can once again appeal this decision, often with the help of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). Most of those detained were held on a one year arrest warrant. If they have not yet been extradited when this expires, they are released. But as I state above this does not mean they are safe. Many seek to leave the former Soviet Union for the relative safety of countries in the European Union. Poland, for example, has received 660 applications for asylum from Tajik citizens in the first half of 2016, surpassing the 527 applications lodged in 2015.[20]

           

          Another alternative for detainees is international law. Thirteen Tajik citizens, all detained in Russia, have taken their case to the European Court of Human Rights. While seven of these cases were lodged by those who had already been illegally transferred to Tajikistan, six individuals have used the ECtHR to successfully resist Tajikistan’s attempts to render them back to the country.[21] Those fighting extradition used the European Convention on Human Rights, which Russia ratified in 1999. All six individuals used Article 3 of the Convention, which states that ‘no one shall be subjected to torture or to inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment,’ to appeal against extradition to Tajikistan. In some cases, applicants complained under Article 5 § 1 (right to liberty and security) and Article 5 § 4 (right to have lawfulness of detention decided speedily by a court) because they were held after the expiration of the extradition detention order. Whilst cases are under review at the ECtHR, the court usually issues an interim measure under Article 39 of the Rules of Court to prevent the individual being extradited before the ECtHR has made its judgement.[22]

           

          Tajikistan has collaborated with Russian and other Central Asian security services to intimidate and deny entry to opposition members. Apart from Russia, Tajikistan has only successfully rendered citizens from Turkey, where the Turkish security services seem to have at least turned a blind eye to Tajik incursions. Outside of Russia and Turkey, governments have been unwilling, or unable, to send suspects back to Tajikistan, partly because of fears that they will be tortured. Human rights organisations such as Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International and the Norwegian Helsinki Committee have pressurised governments into releasing those detained on international arrest warrants. Pressure from human rights organisations helped to secure Quvvatov’s release from detention in Dubai in August 2013. He later applied for asylum in Turkey through UNHCR. Shabnam Khodoydodova was released from detention in Belarus in February 2016. Later she successfully crossed the border to Poland and applied for political asylum there. Sharofiddin Gadoyev, Quvvatov’s cousin and successor as leader of Group 24, was also released in June 2014 after a Madrid court ruled that sending him back would violate the UN Convention against Torture.[23]

           

          Concluding remarks

          With the ongoing crackdown on the IRPT, Group 24 and recruitment for the conflict in Iraq and Syria, incidences of extraterritorial security measures are increasing not decreasing. Despite being frequently referred to as ‘weak’, the deployment of Tajikistan’s security apparatus beyond its territorial borders is relatively sophisticated. To understand politics and security in Tajikistan, it is increasingly necessary to extend our focus to sites outside the country, in the diaspora, in migrant communities and online. Although it is perhaps unsurprising that Tajikistan finds complicity from the security services of increasingly authoritarian Russia and Turkey, what is more worrying is the Tajik government’s manipulation of the Interpol system to pursue its political goals. After a year of trying, in early September Tajikistan managed to have a Red Notice issued against IRPT leader Muhiddin Kabiri, who is accused of corruption and terrorism. Despite the fact that the charges against Kabiri are blatantly political, the move will inhibit his freedom of movement and sets a precedent for other authoritarian states to continue abusing the system.

          [1] Edward Lemon, Tajikistan Extradites Opposition Leader, Arrests Sympathisers,  EurasiaNet, January 2015, http://www.eurasianet.org/node/71916

          [2] В Москве похищен таджикский оппозиционер Максуд Ибрагимов [Tajik Opposition Avtivist Maksud Ibragimov Abuducted in Moscow], Fergana News, January 2015, http://www.fergananews.com/news/22998

          [3] Nadejda Atayeva, Tajikistan Officially Reported that Maksud Ibragimov is Sentenced to 17 Years of Imprisonment, Blog, July 2015, http://nadejda-atayeva-en.blogspot.com/2015/07/tajikistan-officially-reported-that.html

          [4] For a discussion and critique of representations of Tajikistan as a ‘weak’ state, see Heathershaw, John, Tajikistan Amidst Globalization: State Failure or State Transformation. In: Heathershaw, John and Herzig, Edmund. (eds.). The Transformation of Tajikistan. London: Routledge.

          [5] This figure is compiled from publicly-available sources in Tajik, Russian and English. For a full list of cases, see Edward Lemon, Governing Islam and Security in Tajikistan and Beyond, PhD Diss. University of Exeter, 2016.

          [6] Other incidents have taken place in Ukraine, Dubai, Lithuania, Spain, Finland, Moldova, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.

          [7] МВД: В Таджикистан возвращены более 150 граждан, обвиняемых в терроризме и экстремизме, [Ministry of Internal Affairs: Over 150 Citizens Have Been Returned to Tajikistan, Most of them Accused of  Terrorism and Extremism], Asia Plus, September 2016, http://news.tj/ru/news/tajikistan/security/20160920/mvd-v-tadzhikistan-vozvratsheni-bolee-150-grazhdan-obvinyaemih-v-terrorizme-i-ekstremizme

          [8] Just 160 of these names are listed on the Interpol website. See, МВД: Интерпол ищет Кабири [Ministry of Internal Affairs: Interpol Searches for Kabiri]Radio Ozodi, July 2016, http://rus.ozodi.org/a/kabiri-is-in-interpol-list-/27873105.html

          [9] Formed in around 2010 by ex-opposition warlord Amriddin Tabarov, Jamaat Ansurallah claimed responsibility for a suicide bombing in Khujand in September 2010. The organisation is present on social media under the name Irshod. The government alleges that it maintains close links to the IMU, the Taliban and ISIS.

          [10] Tajikistan: Former Interior Minister In Dushanbe to Face Trial for Treason, RFE/RL, March 2004, http://www.rferl.org/content/article/1051835.html

          [11] Case of Iskandarov v. Russia, European Court of Human Rights, February 2011, http://www.refworld.org/pdfid/4ca1d1e52.pdf

          [12] Nargis Hamroboyeva, Nizomkhon Jurayev Faces Trial, Asia Plus, May 2012, http://news.tj/en/news/nizomkhon-juraev-faces-trial

          [13] Konstantin Parshin, Tajikistan: Dushanbe Targets Old Presidential Challenger for Extradition, EurasiaNet, February 2013,

          http://www.eurasianet.org/node/66540

          [14] Formed as an all-USSR party in 1990, the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan split from this in 1991. Led by Said Abdullo Nuri until his death in 2006, the IRPT formed part of the United Tajik Opposition (UTO) which fought the government in the country’s civil war between 1992 and 1997. Following the peace accord, which allocated one third of government posts to the opposition, the party was legalised in 1998. It held two seats in parliament and became the leading opposition party in the country. In 2015, the party was banned and declared a terrorist organisation following armed attacks in Dushanbe in September. Approximately 200 of its members were arrested.

          [15] Information about Muhiddin Kabiri Appeared on Interpol’s Website, Asia Plus, September 2016, http://news.tj/en/news/tajikistan/security/20160905/230452

          [16] Рахимзода: [Rahimzoda The Presence of Tajiks in the Ranks of ISIS is Worrying], Radio Ozodi, May 2016, http://rus.ozodi.org/a/27748955.html

          [17] See, Lemon, Edward, Daesh and Tajikistan: The Regime’s (In)security Policy, The RUSI Journal, 160: 5.

          [18] Turkey: Journalist Gulnora Ravshan Noticed Surveillance, Blog, April 2015, http://nadejda-atayeva-en.blogspot.com/2015/04/turkey-journalist-gulnora-ravshan.html

          [19] Umedjon Solihov and Sherzod Komilov returned to Tajikistan in early 2015 following threats against their families. See Nadezhda Ataeva. Arrests of the Tajik Activists. In Moscow, Maksud Ibragimov is Missing, Blog, January 2015, http://nadejda-atayeva-en.blogspot.ca/2015/01/arrests-of-tajik-activists-in-moscow.html

          [20] Yann Matusevich, The Quiet Tajik Refugee Crisis, The Diplomat, August 2016, http://thediplomat.com/2016/08/the-quiet-tajik-refugee-crisis/

          [21] The six individuals are Gaforov, Mr Sidikov and Mrs Sidikov, Khodjaev and Nasrulloyev.

          [22] Rules of Court, ECtHR, January 2016, http://www.echr.coe.int/Documents/Rules_Court_ENG.pdf

          [23] Вопрос экстрадиции Гадоева суд рассмотрит в понедельник [The Question of Gadoyev’s Extradition Will be Decided on Monday],Radio Ozodi, July 2014, http://rus.ozodi.mobi/a/25454043.html

          Footnotes
            Related Articles

            FPC Briefing: How Investment Treaties have a chilling effect on Human Rights

            Article by Dr Sam Fowles

            May 11, 2017

            Download PDF

            In this FPC Briefing Sam Fowles argues that human rights are the ultimate arbiter of the relationship between the state and the individual, yet a new generation of trade and investment agreements are increasingly subjecting human rights to the interests of international investors.

            Fowles writes that this ’Second Generation’ of agreements has transformed provisions intended to protect investors from state overreach, into guarantees of preferential treatment. This allows investors to exert an unprecedented level of influence on governments. This has often been brought to bear in relation to human rights, with international investors able to compel governments to abandon or roll back measures indented to protect and promote rights. Fowles believes that with Brexit approaching, the UK must shortly embrace Second Generation treaties. Negotiators must, therefore, take account of the risks such instruments pose to fundamental human rights.

            Topics
            Regions
            Footnotes
              Related Articles

              The Information Battle : Executive Summary

              Article by Adam Hug

              March 21, 2017

              The Information Battle : Executive Summary

              The information battle examines the ways in which the governments of former Soviet Union (FSU) look to shape international narratives about themselves by using media, social media, advertising and supportive organisations to promote their worldview and challenge the people, institutions and ideas that oppose them. This publication examines the influence of Russian media content in the former Soviet Union and in the wider world. This is delivered through the impact of Russian domestic TV channels reaching Russian speaking audiences in the region, the developing role of the news agency Sputnik and the international broadcaster RT. It examines how these outlets are used not only to promote Russian political narratives but to challenge Western approaches and sow confusion about what is going on in the world. It offers ideas for how independent broadcasters and international outlets can provide effective alternatives.

               

              Despite cracking down on Western backed NGOs at home, the governments of the former Soviet Union are seeking to directly influence the European and US political debate through NGOs, think tanks and lobbying organisations. This publication looks at how to improve the transparency and accountability of such actions. Repressive regimes that use advertising and the hosting of international events to promote themselves, are increasingly being challenged by human rights defenders through the publicity such activities bring. The publication argues that, in what is increasingly becoming a battle involving the use of soft power and information, Western institutions have been losing ground and must take action in order to meet the challenge.

               

              Recommendations

               

              To the donor and NGO community

              • Fund the creation of new, independent Russian and local language news content, news coordination and dissemination
              • Provide increased funding for independent consortiums of investigative journalists
              • Support in depth independent survey work in the countries of the former Soviet Union to assess the audience reach of both domestic and Russian media outlets
              • Facilitate non-partisan support of Parliamentary engagement on issues relating to the former Soviet Union, including country visits

               

              To Western governments and regulators

              • Track the spread of misleading and untrue content emanating from Russian sources, working with civil society to rebut it where appropriate
              • Actively monitor online threats to Western based critics of regimes in the former Soviet Union
              • Strengthen lobbying registry requirements, including looking to expand the scope of the UK’s statutory register and delivering the proposed formal EU lobbying register
              • Re-examine the governance structures of the US Broadcasting Board of Governors

               

              To international broadcasters

              • Expand the range of voices asked to provided comment on Western networks

              Collaborate with independent partners in the post-Soviet space to develop content

              Footnotes
                Related Articles

                The Information Battle Introduction: A battle for hearts and minds

                Article by Adam Hug

                The Information Battle Introduction: A battle for hearts and minds

                Events can move a debate quickly. When initially developing the idea for this essay collection in the summer of 2014[1], it was clear that the role of media and social media activity originating from the former Soviet Union (FSU) and the links between lobbyists and regimes from the region were issues of growing importance. However it would have been difficult to predict the extent to which much of this debate would become part of mainstream political discourse. The 2016 US Presidential Election saw allegations of Russian government directed hacking and the use of social media to influence political debate; the now ubiquitous term ‘fake news’ bandied about to encompass everything from state directed propaganda, to poor journalism or just stories that one disagrees with; and the rise of anti-establishment forces across Europe and the United States who are gaining ground both in the political debate and at the ballot box, who find common cause with political forces in Russia, all make now an important time to address these issues.

                 

                Countries in the post-Soviet space using soft power tools to influence the agenda beyond their borders is not a new phenomenon, and the flow of ideas and information is very clearly not one-way traffic with Western countries using these tools in the FSU for decades. This publication examines the ways in which the governments of FSU countries look to shape international narratives about themselves by using media, social media, advertising and supportive organisations to promote their worldview and challenge the people, institutions and ideas that oppose them.

                 

                In recent years, governments from the region have sought to influence international and Western debate to encourage investment and or tourism, to increase their international standing (or at least create a perception of enhanced prestige they can package back to a domestic audience) or to deflect or rebut criticisms about their own behaviour. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have been particularly active in attempting to promote themselves internationally in a positive light, while Georgia was an enthusiastic early adopter of Western public relations and lobbying as part of developing a distinctive national brand. Other states, particularly some of the more closed states of Central Asia, have focused more narrowly on engaging with economic stakeholders and Parliamentary groups to attempt to manage the debate on their own terms. Armenia has utilised its complicated relationship with its influential diaspora to counter-balance the influence of rivals with deeper pockets.

                 

                Russia, however, has significantly more ambitious goals for its international engagement. As a number of contributions in this publication show, it seeks to proactively change the international ideological and political environment through its use of broadcast media, both through an overt and covert online presence and through its support of organisations and institutions in Europe and beyond that share their values. It seeks to build on[2] and subvert the style of Western values promotion practiced both during the Cold War and its aftermath, but instead of promoting liberal democracy Russia prioritises supporting ‘traditional values’ and ‘state sovereignty’ across the globe. Furthermore, this publication shows that the goal is also to discredit Western behaviour and models of political organisation, in order to blunt Western criticism of their actions on the grounds of hypocrisy and muddying the waters of global discourse through saturating the debate on particular issues with a high volume of ‘alternative facts’.

                 

                Media impact

                With respect to the use of broadcast media the focus of attention in this publication is understandably on the role of Russia given the small and often poorly developed media institutions across the rest of the region. The Russian influenced media landscape under discussion in this publication falls into three main areas: the level of access to domestic Russian television in the region (including in the Baltic States), the impact of the Russian state news agency Sputnik and the global role of Russia’s internationally focused television channel RT.

                 

                The Soviet and Russian imperial legacies have left Russian as a shared language across much of the region particularly for the older generation, as well as for ethnic Russians and minority groups[3] in the rest of the region. All countries in the region except Lithuania, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan have either active or passive Russian usage at over 50 per cent of their populations.[4] Rasto Kuzel’s contribution to this collection gives an important overview of how Russia’s domestic channels (often through their international counterparts)[5] and local channels that directly rebroadcast content[6], form the core of Russian language media consumed within Russia’s immediate environs, including the countries of the EU’s Eastern Partnership and its three Baltic member states. Russian television penetration is lower in Azerbaijan and Central Asia through a mix of lower Russian language use and more restrictive media environments. The primary point of access for these channels is through cable and satellite packages, though internet access is growing. Both Russian state and commercial channels have higher production values and more diverse content than the local offerings in the region, making these channels an attractive viewing option, which in turn provides access to Russian news narratives and, often already shared cultural norms.

                 

                As addressed in the contribution by Ben Nimmo, the second dimension is the role of the Sputnik news agency – a combined newswire service, radio station, website and multi-media content provider that replaced the international arm of the Russian news agency RIA Novosti in 2013.[7] Sputnik provides 6 newswire services, three in English (one international, one Russia focused and one covering Russia, Ukraine and the Baltic States) and one each in Spanish, Chinese and Arabic. It produces its own content in 30 languages directly to 34 countries, with a significant focus on Russia’s immediate neighbourhood.

                 

                Sputnik’s English service may have 1,091,238 Facebook likes and its content via its public facing outlets and its wire service may resurface on blogs and smaller websites on the alt-right and radical left (depending on the story), however the agency’s real value is in the lower volume news markets in the FSU and Eastern Europe, where easily accessible and usable national language content can be used by local broadcasters, newspapers and websites. So just as wire stories from traditional news agencies disperse across the media landscape, repackaged and rebranded but their core the same story, so now do Sputnik stories proliferate on different sites across the region.[8] Sometimes this is the result of a direct ideological choice. For example in Georgia, a country with low direct penetration of Russian channels due to strategic tensions, Sputnik content has been utilised by a number of emerging domestic outlets such as Obieqtivi TV, [9] Iberia TV, Asaval-Dasavali newspaper and websites such as News Georgia, Saqinformi and Georgia and World[10] that challenge the country’s Western-focused foreign policy and EU backed social reforms. In others, state channels will adopt Russian narratives and news stories when they dovetail with the approach of their national governments. However such content is also being used by hard-pressed newsrooms and websites to fill time or space in their output.

                 

                The third dimension of the media dissemination strategy is one best known in the West – RT (formerly Russia Today). RT describes itself as ‘an autonomous non-profit organization’[11], with a budget of 19 billion rubles (around £264 million at time of writing)[12] and claims an audience reach of 70 million viewers per week and 50 million unique online users each month. This puts it broadly on a par with the BBC World Service in terms of expenditure (£254 million for the BBC World Service in 2014-15) if not yet in terms of reach (246 million World Service users across all platforms).[13] RT runs three 24hr channels in English (with specific US and UK offerings, the latter being available on free-to-air terrestrial television), Spanish and Arabic, with web content in German, French and Russian. It positions itself to cover ‘stories overlooked by the mainstream media, provides alternative perspectives on current affairs, and acquaints international audiences with a Russian viewpoint on major global events’.[14] Its willingness to provide a platform for more voices perceived as outside the political and social mainstream, from political views on the radical right and left, to controversial academics to outright conspiracy theorists and theories has found a niche in an increasingly fragmented media market place where such views struggle to be heard on the traditional broadcasters.

                 

                Both Sputnik (branded as ‘Telling the untold’) and RT (‘Question More‘) do provide an understandably sympathetic approach to the actions of the Russian government amid the mélange of different viewpoints. However there is strong suspicion that at least in part the aim is ‘not to convince people, but to confuse them, not to provide an alternative viewpoint, but to divide public opinions and to ultimately undermine our ability to understand what is going on and therefore take decisions if decisions need to be made’.[15] The ideological approach is as much about muddying the political waters, by focusing allegations of Western hypocrisy to suggest that everyone is the same and sowing confusion, rather than simply building up pro-Russian arguments.

                 

                Until very recently Western competition in the post-Soviet space has been in retreat. The worsening media freedom environment has removed the ability to partner with local stations to rebroadcast content within a number of FSU countries.[16] However also with budgets and priorities still being set as if victory in the Cold War had delivered the initially promised freedom, thereby making such services obsolete. Furthermore, the multi-language offerings have tended to remain focused on radio, building on the long-range broadcast networks developed during the Cold War, for a media market place where TV remains the dominant source of news, though all have active online content provision.

                 

                The multi-language BBC World Service has seen its budget cut in recent years, particularly since 2010, and as of 2014 responsibility for annually funding this work passed from the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office to being directly funded from the license fee along with the rest of the BBC’s non-commercial output.[17] The service remains predominantly radio and online focused though it runs two TV channels (BBC Persian and BBC Arabic), with a significant proportion of its provision focused on Commonwealth Countries. The BBC Russian service currently operates only on the internet, having given up transmitting on medium and short wave radio in 2011, though some of its online content and news is rebroadcasted on independent Russian channel Dozhd (Rain) TV.[18] However a recent one-off government grant is facilitating development on an upcoming digital television project.[19] As with the Russia service the BBC’s Ukrainian and Azeri services went online only in 2011. The BBC’s Kyrgyz service however maintains output online, on radio and via television, with the World Service stating that up to 3 million people watch BBC Kyrgyz’s output via Kyrgyzstan’s Public TV and half a million through the Radio Broadcasting Corporation of the Kyrgyz Republic, highlighting opportunities available with willing domestic partners.[20] The BBC’s Uzbek service website and radio output is blocked by the authorities in Uzbekistan but it continues to make its content accessible on a range of platforms.

                 

                US international public broadcasting outputs fall under the auspices of the Broadcasting Board of Governors (BBG) whose funds are derived from a grant from the US Congress. Voice of America runs a number of English language TV stations globally, as well as a mixture of web TV and radio in a number of different languages including Russian, Ukrainian, Azeri, Armenian, Uzbek and Georgian. However in the post-Soviet space and Eastern Europe, the second BBG organisation is often the central focus. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/ RL) operates 26 language services to 23 countries (FSU countries, minus the Baltic states, but plus the Balkans, Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan and for a number of minority Russian languages).[21] RFE/RL services are rebroadcast on some domestic stations, where the media environment permits, but its radio content is available via region-wide shortwave transmission, on some satellite services as well as online. RFE/RL and VOA have recently launched a new 24hr news service called Current Time which claims 32 cable affiliates in Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Germany and Israel, as well as online and satellite access, expanding on a service that has developed since 2014.[22] German broadcaster Deutsche Welle provides radio content in Russian, Ukrainian and a number of eastern European languages, while Radio France International maintains a Russian service.

                 

                Online action

                The halcyon days when the internet was seen as an almost magical tool to open up access to information in closed societies have long gone. While it continues to provide opportunities for opposition voices to be heard, and indeed for the international media organisations discussed above to provide access to their content, they are very much not alone in this space. Internet penetration in the region is growing. As of 2016 within the members of the CIS the proportion of internet users stood at 66 per cent, with individual country figures from 2015 ranging from Turkmenistan and Tajikistan at 15 and 19 per cent respectively through to Russia and Kazakhstan on 73 per cent with Azerbaijan at 77 per cent.[23] The regions’ authoritarian regimes are learning to utilise the medium to disseminate their own narratives, and are proving increasingly adept at influencing the online debate in their countries, in their diasporas and increasingly in the West.

                 

                The Russian Government’s use of paid and organised trolls to criticise opponents, challenge narratives and provide misleading or false alternative information has been well documented.[24] These paid trolls, operating both on Russian and Western comment sites and social media operate with varying degrees of sophistication, some profiles built up to show evidence of a more diverse online life as if they were real, others narrowly focused on the task at hand. In the space beyond the paid-for trolls lie the enthusiastic (and organised) amateurs. In the gap left by the collapse of former nationalist youth movement Nashi, formerly trailblazing trolls, has been the pro-Putin group Set (Network),[25] who have been active online in trying to promote pro-government messages and rebut attempts by others to challenge their narratives online.[26] In addition, beyond the direct endorsement of the Kremlin networks are a range of new domestic nationalist movements that gain notoriety through online activism and real world stunts to create viral content.[27]

                 

                Arzu Geybulla’s contribution references the role of the pro-government youth movement, the IRELI Public Union that used to be reasonably sophisticated in its trolling of those who disagreed with the government. However following the loss of key activists, the group’s online activism is now eclipsed by less subtle pro-regime activism from the youth branch of the ruling Yeni (New) Azerbaijan Party. A key tactic online continues to be challenging any focus on domestic human rights, arguing instead that the focus should be around Nagorno Karabakh and the conditions facing Azerbaijan’s Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs).[28] In a contribution for Open Democracy on this theme Arzu documents the way in which her and other activists in exile, particularly those involved with Emin Milli’s Berlin-based Meydan TV[29], have been targeted by organised twitter mobs with links to the ruling party. Meydan is forced to block around 50 users per day from its Facebook page over trolling and has faced repeated Distributed Denial of Service (DDOS) attacks to attempt to shut down their web presence. For years human rights defenders in Azerbaijan have had their emails hacked and social media presence monitored and recent work by Amnesty International has documented some of these instances, including how those now based abroad such as Leyla and Arif Yunus have been targeted. Amnesty have documented the use of ‘Spear Phishing’, targeted email spoofing fraud attempts, as well as customised malware.[30]

                 

                Political activists criticising their opponents online, in sometimes abusive language, is far from just the prerogative of post-Soviet regimes. However the degree of official sanction and organisation makes it worth noting as part of the tools available to governments in the region to promote their agendas and attack dissenting voices.

                 

                Making their mark on the world

                Influencing the media is only one of the ways in which countries of the FSU seek to influence global narratives to their advantage. The first of other ways is through the use of advertising and event hosting to position their nations on the world stage, shape how they are perceived by the casual observer and enable their governments to use international prestige as a mechanism for boosting domestic support.

                 

                Azerbaijan has become one of the most prodigious hosts and promoters in the region. It turned its surprise victory in the 2011 Eurovision song contest into an opportunity to showcase itself to the world through the Baku 2012 Eurovision Song Contest. The event was surrounded by glossy promotion to show off the results of Azerbaijan’s oil-fuelled economic transformation. This was followed by the 2015 European Games in Baku, a new competition created by the European Olympic Associations to compete with the pre-existing European Championships in athletics and other disciplines. In 2016 Baku hosted the European Grand Prix and plans to host a regular Azerbaijan Grand Prix from 2017 onwards. Group games and a quarter-final at the 2020 European Football Championships will also take place in Baku. Major construction projects were initiated to help facilitate these, including the new Baku National Stadium (built to host the European Games and the upcoming 2020 football matches), Baku Crystal Hall (built in less than a year to host Eurovision) and the Grand Prix circuit on the streets of Baku. These projects have been the catalyst for large investments in infrastructure, often with opaque procurement practices and a somewhat cavalier approach to planning policy,[31] that have helped feed the narrative of Baku as a boom town.

                 

                As well as the higher profile events, Azerbaijan has also been active in hosting small to medium size events where organisers are in need of finding a willing partner to pay for the event. Examples include the 2012 Internet Governance Forum, the 2016 United Nations Alliance of Civilizations, the 2016 World Sailing Championships and the 2016 Chess Olympiad; these will be followed by future events such as the 2018 European Trampoline Championships[32], the 2019 Summer European Youth Olympic Festival[33] and the 2020 European Mens’ Artistic Gymnastics Championships.

                 

                When the world is not coming to Baku, Baku has been increasingly coming to the world through sponsorship and advertising. Azerbaijan’s state owned oil company SOCAR became an official sponsor of the 2016 European Championships, to complement its existing sponsorship of the International Judo Federation, the Montreux Jazz Festival, the World Economic Forum (Davos) and regional initiatives such as the Georgian Chess Federation.[34] Understandably, SOCAR was one of the core sponsors of the inaugural 2015 Baku European Games. SOCAR’s strategy can be seen to have at least some commercial dimension given that it is involved in the retail sale of petroleum through filling stations in Georgia, Romania, Ukraine and Switzerland as well as Azerbaijan, though clearly its promotion strategy serves a broader strategic purpose. Azerbaijan’s sponsorship of Atlético Madrid helped to raise its national profile, coming as it did with that team’s rise to European prominence in 2014.[35] Advertising has been combined with soft-focus journalism in glossy magazines[36] and breathless reports about the physical transformation of Baku.[37]

                 

                Even Azerbaijan’s grandest efforts however were dwarfed by Russia’s preparations for the Sochi 2014 Winter Olympics, that as well as being an advert for Russian soft power acted as the focal point for a massive investment and stabilisation programme for Russia’s volatile North Caucasus region. A headline figure of around $50 billion was floated as the potential total investment with a tenuous link to the games, including substantial opportunities for corruption.[38] Russian state-owned Gas monopoly Gazprom has become a substantial player in European football as one of the core sponsors of the UEFA Champions League[39] and of Schalke in the German Bundesliga, in addition to its support for Red Star Belgrade and Zenit St Petersburg. Though the company has a range of subsidiaries active in Europe, its approach would seem to be designed to provide reassurance that Gazprom was a firm and reliable fixture in the European landscape rather than a state-owned firm of a potentially hostile power whose dominance of certain European gas markets creates a potential security risk. Its focus on Germany, where it also sponsors Europe’s second biggest theme park Europa-Park, is unsurprising given that country’s strategic importance and its cooperation with the Nordstream gas pipeline project that runs between the two nations.[40]

                 

                Kazakhstan has tried to position itself as an honest, reliable broker on the world stage. Its longstanding hosting in Astana of the Congress of Leaders of World and Traditional Religions, a conference of its own creation, has helped to set that tone.[41] This project is in part about projecting the narrative that Kazakhstan is a stable, moderate Islamic country, one that is non-aligned in the sectarian conflicts besetting the Middle East, an approach that has helped it play a mediation role over Syria. Its positioning as a mature, stabilising presence was integral to its decision to host the 2010 OSCE Summit. In a broader and more investment-focused dimension, Astana is hosting the 2017 Expo. In terms of national branding it is also worth looking at the Astana Pro Team, bankrolled by Kazakhstan’s sovereign wealth fund, Samruk-Kazyna, that helped put the country’s newish capital on the international map.[42] The top level international cycling team now forms part of the wider ‘Astana Presidential Club’ that brings it together with FC Astana, boxing, motorsports and basketball organisations to deliver what its website describes as the ‘development and promotion of international image of Astana and Kazakhstan based on national multisport brand (sic). The aims of the project are entering the world sports space…’[43]

                 

                All of this international work serves a dual purpose; trying to improve national prestige and profile – in part with the aim of encouraging foreign direct investment or tourism, such efforts are also designed to be reflected back to a domestic audience as visible signs of national progress and prestige. It enables the governments in question to argue that if the country is viewed positively from abroad this equates to an implicit endorsement of its practices. Whether such prestige spending can be sustained in the medium to long-term, given the impact of reduced oil prices in recent years, will remain to be seen.[44] Furthermore, particularly since Azerbaijan’s 2012 Eurovision experience, such international ventures are increasingly seen as opportunities for the human rights record of the host country to come under increased scrutiny by NGOs and the media, limiting the opportunities for positive PR, at least in the Western media.

                 

                Shaping the political debate

                As documented in the FPC’s Sharing Worst Practice publication in this Exporting Repression series and elsewhere, in recent years there has been a substantial increase in pressure on independent NGOs and think tanks across the former Soviet Union.[45] This is particularly the case for those who receive funding from Western governments and foundations, which have been targeted under variations of the Russian Foreign Agents Law, that creates onerous specific reporting requirements and forces organisations to announce that they are a ‘foreign agent’ in all written and verbal statements. Despite this trend at home FSU governments are active in attempting to influence the political debate in Europe and the United States through the use of public affairs firms and lobbying organisations, the support of sympathetic politicians, academics, NGOs and think tanks. A number of the contributions here address different dimensions of the challenge with Dr David Lewis and Melissa Hooper focusing on European research and lobbying groups with links to governments in the region, while Ana Dvali and Revaz Koiava look at the way in which the Georgian Government under the leadership of then President Mikheil Saakashvili was used to help reframe how the country was viewed in Western capitals. The earlier Institutionally Blind publication in this series has addressed the issue of Western politicians being involved in pro-regime groups and sympathetic election monitoring missions, though Lewis and Hooper expand on those issues here. [46]

                 

                In addition to the Russian, Kazakhstani and Azerbaijani cases addressed by other authors it is worth noting that US and European lobbying firms have played an active role supporting different factions and oligarchs in Ukrainian politics since the Orange Revolution, with the same firm sometimes representing entirely different viewpoints from one year to the next,[47] with both Trump and Clinton Election Campaign Managers Paul Manafort and John Podesta having previous links to President Yanukovych’s party and groups such as the European Centre for a Modern Ukraine.[48] Some of the more closed Central Asian regimes have focused on support for small scale friendship groups such as the British Uzbek Society.[49]

                 

                FSU governments are not the only voices from the region that try to shape the international narrative about their countries. In a similar fashion, opposition forces from the region have sought to support events and analysis from those with a more critical take on what is going on. For example, a number of groups linked to jailed billionaire Mikael Khodorkovsky and his former company Yukos Oil engaged with think tanks and other organisations that took a more critical line on Putin’s Russia.[50] Since his release Khodorkovsky and his family have developed a number of organisations including the Open Russian Foundation and the affiliated research arm the Institute of Modern Russia to influence the debate on Russia, who partner with other think tanks to host events.[51] Opposition groups and out-of-favour oligarchs work with public affairs firms to protect their personal and legal interests and attempt to influence Western public opinion in a more regime critical direction.

                 

                Countries from across the former Soviet Union are making use of Western-style soft power tools to influence public opinion and promote their interests, even when they are restricting the reach of Western organisations within their own borders. This essay collection seeks to give an overview of the developing landscape, assess the key issues and put forward new approaches on how best to respond to the challenge.

                 

                What our authors say

                 

                Rasťo Kužel looks at the popularity of Russian media in the former Soviet Union countries. He points out the differences in the role and reach of the main Russian channels in Armenia, Belarus and Moldova, compared to Azerbaijan, Georgia and Ukraine.  He concludes that while it is not easy to estimate the real impact of Russian propaganda in these countries, it is clear that the lack of objective reporting, as well as a lack of diverse views among Russian-speaking audiences, poses a real challenge across the region. Kužel believes that if national media enjoyed high levels of trust and popularity in the Eastern Partnership countries, it would serve as a good tool against Russian media propaganda and criticises the fact that governments in these countries have done very little or nothing to encourage the existence of an independent, vibrant and competitive media landscape, essential for providing a variety of news and views.

                 

                Natalya Antelava writes that in Ukraine, the international media was not ready for the disinformation onslaught and was involuntarily aiding the alternative narrative constructed by the Kremlin. The mistakes of Western media outlets in Ukraine offer valuable lessons to all journalists covering the ‘post-fact’, ‘post-truth’ world.

                 

                Dr Justin Schlosberg critically reflects on the respective editorial missions of both RT and the BBC, drawing on a comparative case study analysis of coverage during the second Euromaidan conflict in Ukraine. Amid a global news paradigm where truth and reality are becoming ever more contested, he argues for a new approach to global news ethics that avoids some of the problems inherent in both the concepts of ‘impartiality’ and ‘alternative news’.

                 

                Ben Nimmo argues that Russia’s disinformation efforts in Sweden and Finland have met with mixed success. The local language variants of the Sputnik internet channel failed to penetrate or win a substantial following, and were perceived as a Kremlin propaganda tool. They closed down after less than a year. In the aftermath, evidence has emerged of a shift in policy towards a more indirect approach, using local voices which endorse official Russian government positions and policies, largely from the political fringes. This approach is still evolving; however, growing public awareness of the concept of information war and the role of political extremes in it means that the Kremlin’s information projects continue to face scepticism.

                 

                Dr David Lewis writes that while modern authoritarian states still imprison journalists and close down newspapers, they increasingly rely on more sophisticated ways to suppress criticism and skew narratives in their favour. Post-Soviet states such as Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan use slick media and lobbying operations to boost their image at home and abroad. They often hire Western PR companies to promote their views in international media, to lobby European and American politicians, and to discredit political opponents. Authoritarian states create their own think tanks and non-governmental organisations, but use such groups to promote government views. They often rely on pliant or supportive Western academics and politicians to channel official views, or to act as uncritical election monitors. Non-democratic states have also learned to use social media to their advantage, both as an effective method of surveillance and as a new platform for their messaging. Lewis argues that the international activism of Eurasia’s authoritarian states deserves more critical attention.

                 

                Melissa Hooper argues that the Russian government’s use of various media and messaging tools to disrupt the application of universal human rights norms in the EU and US, and declare democracy a failed experiment, includes a new front. This is the use of seemingly-independent think tanks and foundations to put forth xenophobic ideas that target migrant, Muslim, LGBTQ, and other minority communities as threats to those who ‘belong’. These think tanks and foundations are not independent, however, they are funded by the Russian government either directly, or by Russian-government-partnered oligarchs who act as agents to spread the Kremlin’s ideologies. Organisations such as the Institute for Democracy and Cooperation or the World Public Forum produce messaging that sacrifices the rights of minorities as they aim to demonstrate that the current EU and US democracies are failing and unsafe, and in need of replacement – which Russia can offer. For all these reasons, the EU and US governments, or at least intelligence agencies and civil society, should work together to document the funding and influence that are the source of these anti-human rights and non-evidence-based proposals.

                 

                Ana Dvali and Revaz Koiava examine how the international promotion of Georgia intensified after the 2003 Rose Revolution. The new United National Movement Government of Georgia set ambitious goals and remained committed to trying to promote the country’s image as a democratic and reformist state around the world, something its supporters believe had a great impact on the country’s development. However, critics argue that the image the government tried to create was far from reality, and the substantial amount of funds spent on promotion were a waste. The situation changed after 2012; the new Georgian Dream government has focused less on international promotion and spends fewer resources to shape international opinion. They compare the international promotion strategies of the two governments; in particular, how they have interacted with various international actors and which instruments they used to raise international awareness of the Georgian national brand.

                 

                Arzu Geybulla explores the ways in which authoritarian regimes from the former Soviet Union use lobbying and nation branding to promote their achievements and blunt criticisms. She focuses on the cases of Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, using the idea of the ‘brand state’. The essay also looks at the efforts these governments make online to harass their opponents.

                 

                Richard Giragosian writes the Republic of Armenia’s relationship with its global Armenian diaspora has always been complex, and at times, even confrontational. Yet, despite a degree of misunderstanding and a deep cultural divide, this relationship is both symbiotic and significant.  While the diaspora was deeply engaged in providing economic support to the Armenian state through the 1990s, the combination of entrenched corruption and a closed economy has ended that period of financial support and investment, though remittances particularly from those temporarily working in Russia still provide a major source of funds. The politically sophisticated Armenian diaspora, well-integrated and politically active in several Western countries, play an important role in support of Armenian foreign policy. Despite occasional differences, especially over attempts to normalise relations with Turkey, the diaspora’s diplomatic leverage gives the Armenian state a distinct advantage, particularly in contrast to their Azerbaijani and Turkish rivals. But Armenia has failed to fully harness the natural advantage of its global diaspora, and the diaspora has never fulfilled expectations of more direct engagement in such critical issues as democratisation and sustainable economic development in Armenia.

                [1] This collection is part of the wider Exporting Repression Series of publications and events first proposed in 2014 and work on the series first began in the early summer of 2015.

                [2] And indeed also update and refine its own Cold War approach to propaganda and soft power.

                [3] Who may be less likely to speak the national language of their home countries, particularly if they went to school in the Soviet-era.

                [4] A Arefjef, Russian Language at the turn of the 20th-21st Century, Centre for social forecasting and marketing-Moscow, 2012, https://www.civisbook.ru/files/File/russkij_yazyk.pdf (information found via the EED). It is worth noting however that active use of Russian is below 25 percent in Moldova, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Lithuania.

                [5] These international versions primarily rebroadcast domestic content with major outlets including Channel One Russia Worldwide (Pervyi Kanal) including its specific Baltic service (Pervyi Baltiyskiy Kanal), RTR Planet (RTR Planeta), NTV World (NTV Mir).

                [6] Examples include in Moldova Prime (Pervyi Kanal), RTR Moldova (Rossiya 1) and TV7 (NTV) among others. In Belarus they include ONT (Pervyi Kanal), STV (Ren TV), Belarus RTR (RTR), NTV Belarus (NTV). In Kyrgyzstan NTV Kyrgyzstan, in Lithuania REN Lietuva (REN).

                [7] Sputnik, Products and Services, https://sputniknews.com/docs/products/index.html

                [8] Other Russian language wire service content is available from Russian domestic services such as TASS, the domestic RIA Novosti (ria.ru) from which Sputnik was hived off, and business focused service Interfax.

                [9] Co-founded by Irma Inashvili the Secretary General of the anti-Western and pro-Russian Alliance of Patriots of Georgia (APG) party, with other party activists on its board Media Meter, see Obieqtivi,  http://mediameter.ge/en/media-profiles/obieqtivi and also http://www.obieqtivi.net/

                [10] Nata Dzvelishvili and Tazo Kupreishvili, Russian Influence of Georgian NGOs and Media, Institute for Development of Freedom of Information, June 2015, https://idfi.ge/public/upload/IDFI/media.and.NGO.pdf and Tamar Kinturashvili, Anti-Western Propaganda: Media Monitoring Report 2014-15, Media Diversity Institute,  http://www.media-diversity.org/en/additional-files/documents/Anti-Western_Propaganda_Media_Monitoring_Report.pdf

                [11] RT Management, http://rt.com/about-us/management/ Nevertheless there is no real pretense that it is not a state backed broadcaster with funding from sources around the Russian Government.

                [12] RT’s own about us management page states RT’s 2016 funding to be 19 billion rubles, while on its own myth busting section it challenges Newsweek for using a dollar version of this figure, instead claiming that the 2016 budget is 17 billion rubles https://www.rt.com/facts-vs-fiction/. Its broadcast reach figures are sourced from research it commissioned from French Survey firm IPSOS.

                [13] UK National Audit Office, Report by the Comptroller and Auditor General presented to the BBC Trust Value for Money Committee, June 2016, https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/BBC-World-Service-1.pdf Note this does not include the budget or viewing figures for BBC World News or many of the BBC’s other international entertainment focused TV offerings that operate on a commercial basis.

                [14] About RT, https://www.rt.com/about-us/

                [15] Mike Wendling and Will Yates, NATO says viral news outlet is part of “Kremlin misinformation machine, February 2017, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-38936812

                [16] Including Russia, Azerbaijan, Armenia as well as much of Central Asia.

                [17] The license fee is a mandatory payment for using a television or watching live broadcasts online in the UK that is collected directly by the BBC. The English language BBC World News channel, with a 75million global reach is commercially funded and organised separately from the World Service.

                [18] The beleaguered Dozhd TV has had its broadcast access in Russia reduced in recent years. During the 2000s the BBC’s Russia service’s ability to be rebroadcast via domestic radio partners dwindled due to the increasingly restricted media environment.

                [19] Tara Conlan,BBC World Service to receive £289m from government, November 2015, https://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/nov/23/bbc-world-service-receive-289m-from-government This funding, £289 million over 5 years, will cover services across the world including ‘new radio services in North Korea, Ethiopia and Eritrea; a better TV service in Africa; additional language broadcasts via digital and television in India and Nigeria; better regional content for the BBC Arabic Service, improved digital and TV services in Russia and for Russian speakers; and improved video across its output.’

                [20] BBC, BBC Kyrgyz marks 20 years on air with special content – and 3 million weekly reach on TV, June 2016,

                http://www.bbc.co.uk/mediacentre/latestnews/2016/bbc-kyrgyz-20-years

                [21] RFE/RL Language Services,  http://pressroom.rferl.org/p/6087.html

                [22] Broadcasting Board of Governors, Current Time, February 2017, https://www.bbg.gov/2017/02/07/current-time-independent-russian-language-news-network/

                [23] ITU, ICT STATISTICS Home Page, http://www.itu.int/en/ITU-D/Statistics/Pages/default.aspx Some of these higher figures need to be treated with caution given concerns about the standards of statistical collection in these restrictive countries.

                [24] Max Seddon, Documents Show How Russia’s Troll Army Hit America, June 2014, https://www.buzzfeed.com/maxseddon/documents-show-how-russias-troll-army-hit-america?utm_term=.jlBoWJdZ#.ep4zYXNM Shaun Walker, Salutin’ Putin: inside a Russian troll house,  Guardian, April 2015, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/apr/02/putin-kremlin-inside-russian-troll-house See also NATO Stratcom, Internet Trolling as a hybrid warfare tool: the case of Latvia, http://www.stratcomcoe.org/internet-trolling-hybrid-warfare-tool-case-latvia-0

                [25] Anna Nemtsova, Vladimir Putin’s biggest fan club: Media-savvy youth group Set is churning out propaganda and clothing to promote Russia’s leader, December 2014, http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/vladimir-putins-biggest-fan-club-media-savvy-youth-group-set-is-churning-out-propaganda-and-clothing-9901715.html

                [26] Tom Balmforth, ‘We fight for democracy’ – Russia’s pro-Kremlin youth respond to propaganda warning, February 2015, Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/feb/03/russia-ukraine-pro-kremlin-youth-respond-propaganda-warning

                [27] An example would include Maria Katasonova and the People’s Liberation Front whose sympathies are linked to the international ‘alt-right’ and who have been active in challenging independent NGOs and participating in pro-Trump trolling around the 2016 US Election. See https://www.ft.com/content/d53f326e-54db-11e6-befd-2fc0c26b3c60 and https://www.pri.org/stories/2017-01-20/youth-movement-will-be-partying-friday-make-america-great-again-russia

                [28] It should be noted of course that Armenia has an active nationalist presence on social media, both from within the country and in the diaspora with a similar focus on Nagorno Karabakh (albeit from the opposite perspective) and Genocide Recognition.

                [29] Arzu Geybulla, In the crosshairs of Azerbaijan’s patriotic trolls, November 2016, https://opendemocracy.net/od-russia/arzu-geybulla/azerbaijan-patriotic-trolls

                [30] Claudio Guarnieri, Joshua Franco and Collin Anderson, False Friends: How Fake Accounts and Crude Malware Targeted Dissidents in Azerbaijan, Amnesty International, March 2017, https://medium.com/amnesty-insights/false-friends-how-fake-accounts-and-crude-malware-targeted-dissidents-in-azerbaijan-9b6594cafe60#.bw6r2ievd

                [31] See for example Human Rights Watch, Azerbaijan: Illegal Evictions Ahead of Eurovision, February 2012,

                https://www.hrw.org/news/2012/02/17/azerbaijan-illegal-evictions-ahead-eurovision

                [32] Trend News Agency, Baku to host European Men’s Artistic Gymnastics Championship, February 2017,

                http://en.trend.az/azerbaijan/society/2717249.html

                [33] Dan Palmer, Baku to host 2019 Summer European Youth Olympic Festival, January 2017, http://www.insidethegames.biz/articles/1045735/baku-to-host-2019-summer-european-youth-olympic-festival

                [34] SOCAR, Make Your Debut, http://makeyourdebutsocar.com/en_gb/about-socar

                [35] Owen Gibson, Azerbaijan’s sponsorship of Atlético Madrid proves spectacular success

                May 2014, https://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/may/01/azerbaijan-sponsorship-atletico-madrid-spectacular-success

                [36] As well as puff pieces in Western lifestyle magazines, Azerbaijan’s first daughter Leyla Aliyeva was even able to persuade Conde Nast to set up its own Azerbaijan focused glossy, Baku Magazine, http://www.baku-magazine.com/magazine/

                [37] Azerbaijan’s Amazing Transformation (Discovery Channel), June 2014, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YBSB_2CM7UA

                [38] Paul Farhi, Did the Winter Olympics in Sochi really cost $50 billion? A closer look at that figure, Washington Post, February 2014,  https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/did-the-winter-olympics-in-sochi-really-cost-50-billion-a-closer-look-at-that-figure/2014/02/10/a29e37b4-9260-11e3-b46a-5a3d0d2130da_story.html?utm_term=.aa33a3c30ac4

                [39] It’s we light up football adverts are an integral part of the match television coverage https://www.gazprom-football.com/en/Home.htm. See also Jack Pitt Brook, Chelsea vs Schalke: Controversial Gazprom deals cast cloud ahead of Champions League game, Independent, September 2014, http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/european/chelsea-vs-schalke-controversial-gazprom-deals-cast-cloud-ahead-of-champions-league-game-9736801.html

                [40] Though again it is worth being clear that Gazprom has a number of subsidiaries active in the German market.

                [41] Congress of Leaders of World and Traditional Religions, http://www.religions-congress.org/index.php?lang=english

                [42] Akmola became Kazakhstan’s Capital in December 1997 with its name changed to Astana in May 1998. The Astana cycling team was founded in 2007

                [43] Astana President’s Professional Sports Club

                http://www.astanaproteam.kz/modules.php?name=astana&page=kazakhstan-club&pid=65

                [44] Heaping on the Caviar Democracy, 1843 Magazine (The Economist), https://www.1843magazine.com/features/heaping-on-the-caviar-diplomacy

                [45] Adam Hug (ed.), Sharing worst practice: How countries and institutions in the former Soviet Union help create legal tools of repression, May 2016, http://fpc.org.uk/publications/sharingworstpractice

                [46] Adam Hug (ed.), Institutionally blind? International organisations and human rights abuses in the former Soviet Union, February 2016, http://fpc.org.uk/publications/institutionallyblind

                [47] Andrew Rettman, Ukraine chief seeks friends in EU capital, EU Observer, October 2010, https://euobserver.com/foreign/31161 APCO Worldwide for example has provided support to the Presidential Administrations of both President Yushchenko and President Yanukovych as well as to the Premiership during the term of Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, http://www.odwyerpr.com/story/public/4873/2015-06-29/apco-gives-pr-support-embattled-ukraine.html and http://www.smi-online.co.uk/documentportal/speakerprofile/148501.pdf

                [48] See Luke Harding, How Trump’s campaign chief got a strongman elected president of Ukraine, August 2016, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/aug/16/donald-trump-campaign-paul-manafort-ukraine-yanukovich and Eli Lake,Ukraine’s D.C. Lobbyists in Disarray as Dictator Flees,

                http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/02/25/ukraine-s-d-c-lobbyists-in-disarray-as-dictator-flees.html

                [49] Corporate Europe Observatory, Spin doctors to the autocrats: How European PR firms whitewash repressive regimes, January 2015, https://corporateeurope.org/sites/default/files/20150120_spindoctors_mr.pdf

                [50] This engagement during this period included with the Foreign Policy Centre.

                [51] See for example: Henry Jackson Society, Event: ’25 Years On: Russia Since the Fall of the Soviet Union’, December 2016, http://henryjacksonsociety.org/2016/12/07/event-25-years-on-russia-since-the-fall-of-the-soviet-union/

                Footnotes
                1. Events can move a debate quickly. When initially developing the idea for this essay collection in the summer of 2014[1], it was clear that the role of media and social media activity originating from the former Soviet Union (FSU) and the links between lobbyists and regimes from the region were issues of growing importance. However it would have been difficult to predict the extent to which much of this debate would become part of mainstream political discourse. The 2016 US Presidential Election saw allegations of Russian government directed hacking and the use of social media to influence political debate; the now ubiquitous term ‘fake news’ bandied about to encompass everything from state directed propaganda, to poor journalism or just stories that one disagrees with; and the rise of anti-establishment forces across Europe and the United States who are gaining ground both in the political debate and at the ballot box, who find common cause with political forces in Russia, all make now an important time to address these issues.   Countries in the post-Soviet space using soft power tools to influence the agenda beyond their borders is not a new phenomenon, and the flow of ideas and information is very clearly not one-way traffic with Western countries using these tools in the FSU for decades. This publication examines the ways in which the governments of FSU countries look to shape international narratives about themselves by using media, social media, advertising and supportive organisations to promote their worldview and challenge the people, institutions and ideas that oppose them.   In recent years, governments from the region have sought to influence international and Western debate to encourage investment and or tourism, to increase their international standing (or at least create a perception of enhanced prestige they can package back to a domestic audience) or to deflect or rebut criticisms about their own behaviour. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have been particularly active in attempting to promote themselves internationally in a positive light, while Georgia was an enthusiastic early adopter of Western public relations and lobbying as part of developing a distinctive national brand. Other states, particularly some of the more closed states of Central Asia, have focused more narrowly on engaging with economic stakeholders and Parliamentary groups to attempt to manage the debate on their own terms. Armenia has utilised its complicated relationship with its influential diaspora to counter-balance the influence of rivals with deeper pockets.   Russia, however, has significantly more ambitious goals for its international engagement. As a number of contributions in this publication show, it seeks to proactively change the international ideological and political environment through its use of broadcast media, both through an overt and covert online presence and through its support of organisations and institutions in Europe and beyond that share their values. It seeks to build on[2] and subvert the style of Western values promotion practiced both during the Cold War and its aftermath, but instead of promoting liberal democracy Russia prioritises supporting ‘traditional values’ and ‘state sovereignty’ across the globe. Furthermore, this publication shows that the goal is also to discredit Western behaviour and models of political organisation, in order to blunt Western criticism of their actions on the grounds of hypocrisy and muddying the waters of global discourse through saturating the debate on particular issues with a high volume of ‘alternative facts’.   Media impact With respect to the use of broadcast media the focus of attention in this publication is understandably on the role of Russia given the small and often poorly developed media institutions across the rest of the region. The Russian influenced media landscape under discussion in this publication falls into three main areas: the level of access to domestic Russian television in the region (including in the Baltic States), the impact of the Russian state news agency Sputnik and the global role of Russia’s internationally focused television channel RT.   The Soviet and Russian imperial legacies have left Russian as a shared language across much of the region particularly for the older generation, as well as for ethnic Russians and minority groups[3] in the rest of the region. All countries in the region except Lithuania, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan have either active or passive Russian usage at over 50 per cent of their populations.[4] Rasto Kuzel’s contribution to this collection gives an important overview of how Russia’s domestic channels (often through their international counterparts)[5] and local channels that directly rebroadcast content[6], form the core of Russian language media consumed within Russia’s immediate environs, including the countries of the EU’s Eastern Partnership and its three Baltic member states. Russian television penetration is lower in Azerbaijan and Central Asia through a mix of lower Russian language use and more restrictive media environments. The primary point of access for these channels is through cable and satellite packages, though internet access is growing. Both Russian state and commercial channels have higher production values and more diverse content than the local offerings in the region, making these channels an attractive viewing option, which in turn provides access to Russian news narratives and, often already shared cultural norms.   As addressed in the contribution by Ben Nimmo, the second dimension is the role of the Sputnik news agency – a combined newswire service, radio station, website and multi-media content provider that replaced the international arm of the Russian news agency RIA Novosti in 2013.[7] Sputnik provides 6 newswire services, three in English (one international, one Russia focused and one covering Russia, Ukraine and the Baltic States) and one each in Spanish, Chinese and Arabic. It produces its own content in 30 languages directly to 34 countries, with a significant focus on Russia’s immediate neighbourhood.   Sputnik’s English service may have 1,091,238 Facebook likes and its content via its public facing outlets and its wire service may resurface on blogs and smaller websites on the alt-right and radical left (depending on the story), however the agency’s real value is in the lower volume news markets in the FSU and Eastern Europe, where easily accessible and usable national language content can be used by local broadcasters, newspapers and websites. So just as wire stories from traditional news agencies disperse across the media landscape, repackaged and rebranded but their core the same story, so now do Sputnik stories proliferate on different sites across the region.[8] Sometimes this is the result of a direct ideological choice. For example in Georgia, a country with low direct penetration of Russian channels due to strategic tensions, Sputnik content has been utilised by a number of emerging domestic outlets such as Obieqtivi TV, [9] Iberia TV, Asaval-Dasavali newspaper and websites such as News Georgia, Saqinformi and Georgia and World[10] that challenge the country’s Western-focused foreign policy and EU backed social reforms. In others, state channels will adopt Russian narratives and news stories when they dovetail with the approach of their national governments. However such content is also being used by hard-pressed newsrooms and websites to fill time or space in their output.   The third dimension of the media dissemination strategy is one best known in the West – RT (formerly Russia Today). RT describes itself as ‘an autonomous non-profit organization’[11], with a budget of 19 billion rubles (around £264 million at time of writing)[12] and claims an audience reach of 70 million viewers per week and 50 million unique online users each month. This puts it broadly on a par with the BBC World Service in terms of expenditure (£254 million for the BBC World Service in 2014-15) if not yet in terms of reach (246 million World Service users across all platforms).[13] RT runs three 24hr channels in English (with specific US and UK offerings, the latter being available on free-to-air terrestrial television), Spanish and Arabic, with web content in German, French and Russian. It positions itself to cover ‘stories overlooked by the mainstream media, provides alternative perspectives on current affairs, and acquaints international audiences with a Russian viewpoint on major global events’.[14] Its willingness to provide a platform for more voices perceived as outside the political and social mainstream, from political views on the radical right and left, to controversial academics to outright conspiracy theorists and theories has found a niche in an increasingly fragmented media market place where such views struggle to be heard on the traditional broadcasters.   Both Sputnik (branded as ‘Telling the untold’) and RT (‘Question More‘) do provide an understandably sympathetic approach to the actions of the Russian government amid the mélange of different viewpoints. However there is strong suspicion that at least in part the aim is ‘not to convince people, but to confuse them, not to provide an alternative viewpoint, but to divide public opinions and to ultimately undermine our ability to understand what is going on and therefore take decisions if decisions need to be made’.[15] The ideological approach is as much about muddying the political waters, by focusing allegations of Western hypocrisy to suggest that everyone is the same and sowing confusion, rather than simply building up pro-Russian arguments.   Until very recently Western competition in the post-Soviet space has been in retreat. The worsening media freedom environment has removed the ability to partner with local stations to rebroadcast content within a number of FSU countries.[16] However also with budgets and priorities still being set as if victory in the Cold War had delivered the initially promised freedom, thereby making such services obsolete. Furthermore, the multi-language offerings have tended to remain focused on radio, building on the long-range broadcast networks developed during the Cold War, for a media market place where TV remains the dominant source of news, though all have active online content provision.   The multi-language BBC World Service has seen its budget cut in recent years, particularly since 2010, and as of 2014 responsibility for annually funding this work passed from the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office to being directly funded from the license fee along with the rest of the BBC’s non-commercial output.[17] The service remains predominantly radio and online focused though it runs two TV channels (BBC Persian and BBC Arabic), with a significant proportion of its provision focused on Commonwealth Countries. The BBC Russian service currently operates only on the internet, having given up transmitting on medium and short wave radio in 2011, though some of its online content and news is rebroadcasted on independent Russian channel Dozhd (Rain) TV.[18] However a recent one-off government grant is facilitating development on an upcoming digital television project.[19] As with the Russia service the BBC’s Ukrainian and Azeri services went online only in 2011. The BBC’s Kyrgyz service however maintains output online, on radio and via television, with the World Service stating that up to 3 million people watch BBC Kyrgyz’s output via Kyrgyzstan’s Public TV and half a million through the Radio Broadcasting Corporation of the Kyrgyz Republic, highlighting opportunities available with willing domestic partners.[20] The BBC’s Uzbek service website and radio output is blocked by the authorities in Uzbekistan but it continues to make its content accessible on a range of platforms.   US international public broadcasting outputs fall under the auspices of the Broadcasting Board of Governors (BBG) whose funds are derived from a grant from the US Congress. Voice of America runs a number of English language TV stations globally, as well as a mixture of web TV and radio in a number of different languages including Russian, Ukrainian, Azeri, Armenian, Uzbek and Georgian. However in the post-Soviet space and Eastern Europe, the second BBG organisation is often the central focus. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/ RL) operates 26 language services to 23 countries (FSU countries, minus the Baltic states, but plus the Balkans, Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan and for a number of minority Russian languages).[21] RFE/RL services are rebroadcast on some domestic stations, where the media environment permits, but its radio content is available via region-wide shortwave transmission, on some satellite services as well as online. RFE/RL and VOA have recently launched a new 24hr news service called Current Time which claims 32 cable affiliates in Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Germany and Israel, as well as online and satellite access, expanding on a service that has developed since 2014.[22] German broadcaster Deutsche Welle provides radio content in Russian, Ukrainian and a number of eastern European languages, while Radio France International maintains a Russian service.   Online action The halcyon days when the internet was seen as an almost magical tool to open up access to information in closed societies have long gone. While it continues to provide opportunities for opposition voices to be heard, and indeed for the international media organisations discussed above to provide access to their content, they are very much not alone in this space. Internet penetration in the region is growing. As of 2016 within the members of the CIS the proportion of internet users stood at 66 per cent, with individual country figures from 2015 ranging from Turkmenistan and Tajikistan at 15 and 19 per cent respectively through to Russia and Kazakhstan on 73 per cent with Azerbaijan at 77 per cent.[23] The regions’ authoritarian regimes are learning to utilise the medium to disseminate their own narratives, and are proving increasingly adept at influencing the online debate in their countries, in their diasporas and increasingly in the West.   The Russian Government’s use of paid and organised trolls to criticise opponents, challenge narratives and provide misleading or false alternative information has been well documented.[24] These paid trolls, operating both on Russian and Western comment sites and social media operate with varying degrees of sophistication, some profiles built up to show evidence of a more diverse online life as if they were real, others narrowly focused on the task at hand. In the space beyond the paid-for trolls lie the enthusiastic (and organised) amateurs. In the gap left by the collapse of former nationalist youth movement Nashi, formerly trailblazing trolls, has been the pro-Putin group Set (Network),[25] who have been active online in trying to promote pro-government messages and rebut attempts by others to challenge their narratives online.[26] In addition, beyond the direct endorsement of the Kremlin networks are a range of new domestic nationalist movements that gain notoriety through online activism and real world stunts to create viral content.[27]   Arzu Geybulla’s contribution references the role of the pro-government youth movement, the IRELI Public Union that used to be reasonably sophisticated in its trolling of those who disagreed with the government. However following the loss of key activists, the group’s online activism is now eclipsed by less subtle pro-regime activism from the youth branch of the ruling Yeni (New) Azerbaijan Party. A key tactic online continues to be challenging any focus on domestic human rights, arguing instead that the focus should be around Nagorno Karabakh and the conditions facing Azerbaijan’s Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs).[28] In a contribution for Open Democracy on this theme Arzu documents the way in which her and other activists in exile, particularly those involved with Emin Milli’s Berlin-based Meydan TV[29], have been targeted by organised twitter mobs with links to the ruling party. Meydan is forced to block around 50 users per day from its Facebook page over trolling and has faced repeated Distributed Denial of Service (DDOS) attacks to attempt to shut down their web presence. For years human rights defenders in Azerbaijan have had their emails hacked and social media presence monitored and recent work by Amnesty International has documented some of these instances, including how those now based abroad such as Leyla and Arif Yunus have been targeted. Amnesty have documented the use of ‘Spear Phishing’, targeted email spoofing fraud attempts, as well as customised malware.[30]   Political activists criticising their opponents online, in sometimes abusive language, is far from just the prerogative of post-Soviet regimes. However the degree of official sanction and organisation makes it worth noting as part of the tools available to governments in the region to promote their agendas and attack dissenting voices.   Making their mark on the world Influencing the media is only one of the ways in which countries of the FSU seek to influence global narratives to their advantage. The first of other ways is through the use of advertising and event hosting to position their nations on the world stage, shape how they are perceived by the casual observer and enable their governments to use international prestige as a mechanism for boosting domestic support.   Azerbaijan has become one of the most prodigious hosts and promoters in the region. It turned its surprise victory in the 2011 Eurovision song contest into an opportunity to showcase itself to the world through the Baku 2012 Eurovision Song Contest. The event was surrounded by glossy promotion to show off the results of Azerbaijan’s oil-fuelled economic transformation. This was followed by the 2015 European Games in Baku, a new competition created by the European Olympic Associations to compete with the pre-existing European Championships in athletics and other disciplines. In 2016 Baku hosted the European Grand Prix and plans to host a regular Azerbaijan Grand Prix from 2017 onwards. Group games and a quarter-final at the 2020 European Football Championships will also take place in Baku. Major construction projects were initiated to help facilitate these, including the new Baku National Stadium (built to host the European Games and the upcoming 2020 football matches), Baku Crystal Hall (built in less than a year to host Eurovision) and the Grand Prix circuit on the streets of Baku. These projects have been the catalyst for large investments in infrastructure, often with opaque procurement practices and a somewhat cavalier approach to planning policy,[31] that have helped feed the narrative of Baku as a boom town.   As well as the higher profile events, Azerbaijan has also been active in hosting small to medium size events where organisers are in need of finding a willing partner to pay for the event. Examples include the 2012 Internet Governance Forum, the 2016 United Nations Alliance of Civilizations, the 2016 World Sailing Championships and the 2016 Chess Olympiad; these will be followed by future events such as the 2018 European Trampoline Championships[32], the 2019 Summer European Youth Olympic Festival[33] and the 2020 European Mens’ Artistic Gymnastics Championships.   When the world is not coming to Baku, Baku has been increasingly coming to the world through sponsorship and advertising. Azerbaijan’s state owned oil company SOCAR became an official sponsor of the 2016 European Championships, to complement its existing sponsorship of the International Judo Federation, the Montreux Jazz Festival, the World Economic Forum (Davos) and regional initiatives such as the Georgian Chess Federation.[34] Understandably, SOCAR was one of the core sponsors of the inaugural 2015 Baku European Games. SOCAR’s strategy can be seen to have at least some commercial dimension given that it is involved in the retail sale of petroleum through filling stations in Georgia, Romania, Ukraine and Switzerland as well as Azerbaijan, though clearly its promotion strategy serves a broader strategic purpose. Azerbaijan’s sponsorship of Atlético Madrid helped to raise its national profile, coming as it did with that team’s rise to European prominence in 2014.[35] Advertising has been combined with soft-focus journalism in glossy magazines[36] and breathless reports about the physical transformation of Baku.[37]   Even Azerbaijan’s grandest efforts however were dwarfed by Russia’s preparations for the Sochi 2014 Winter Olympics, that as well as being an advert for Russian soft power acted as the focal point for a massive investment and stabilisation programme for Russia’s volatile North Caucasus region. A headline figure of around $50 billion was floated as the potential total investment with a tenuous link to the games, including substantial opportunities for corruption.[38] Russian state-owned Gas monopoly Gazprom has become a substantial player in European football as one of the core sponsors of the UEFA Champions League[39] and of Schalke in the German Bundesliga, in addition to its support for Red Star Belgrade and Zenit St Petersburg. Though the company has a range of subsidiaries active in Europe, its approach would seem to be designed to provide reassurance that Gazprom was a firm and reliable fixture in the European landscape rather than a state-owned firm of a potentially hostile power whose dominance of certain European gas markets creates a potential security risk. Its focus on Germany, where it also sponsors Europe’s second biggest theme park Europa-Park, is unsurprising given that country’s strategic importance and its cooperation with the Nordstream gas pipeline project that runs between the two nations.[40]   Kazakhstan has tried to position itself as an honest, reliable broker on the world stage. Its longstanding hosting in Astana of the Congress of Leaders of World and Traditional Religions, a conference of its own creation, has helped to set that tone.[41] This project is in part about projecting the narrative that Kazakhstan is a stable, moderate Islamic country, one that is non-aligned in the sectarian conflicts besetting the Middle East, an approach that has helped it play a mediation role over Syria. Its positioning as a mature, stabilising presence was integral to its decision to host the 2010 OSCE Summit. In a broader and more investment-focused dimension, Astana is hosting the 2017 Expo. In terms of national branding it is also worth looking at the Astana Pro Team, bankrolled by Kazakhstan’s sovereign wealth fund, Samruk-Kazyna, that helped put the country’s newish capital on the international map.[42] The top level international cycling team now forms part of the wider ‘Astana Presidential Club’ that brings it together with FC Astana, boxing, motorsports and basketball organisations to deliver what its website describes as the ‘development and promotion of international image of Astana and Kazakhstan based on national multisport brand (sic). The aims of the project are entering the world sports space…’[43]   All of this international work serves a dual purpose; trying to improve national prestige and profile – in part with the aim of encouraging foreign direct investment or tourism, such efforts are also designed to be reflected back to a domestic audience as visible signs of national progress and prestige. It enables the governments in question to argue that if the country is viewed positively from abroad this equates to an implicit endorsement of its practices. Whether such prestige spending can be sustained in the medium to long-term, given the impact of reduced oil prices in recent years, will remain to be seen.[44] Furthermore, particularly since Azerbaijan’s 2012 Eurovision experience, such international ventures are increasingly seen as opportunities for the human rights record of the host country to come under increased scrutiny by NGOs and the media, limiting the opportunities for positive PR, at least in the Western media.   Shaping the political debate As documented in the FPC’s Sharing Worst Practice publication in this Exporting Repression series and elsewhere, in recent years there has been a substantial increase in pressure on independent NGOs and think tanks across the former Soviet Union.[45] This is particularly the case for those who receive funding from Western governments and foundations, which have been targeted under variations of the Russian Foreign Agents Law, that creates onerous specific reporting requirements and forces organisations to announce that they are a ‘foreign agent’ in all written and verbal statements. Despite this trend at home FSU governments are active in attempting to influence the political debate in Europe and the United States through the use of public affairs firms and lobbying organisations, the support of sympathetic politicians, academics, NGOs and think tanks. A number of the contributions here address different dimensions of the challenge with Dr David Lewis and Melissa Hooper focusing on European research and lobbying groups with links to governments in the region, while Ana Dvali and Revaz Koiava look at the way in which the Georgian Government under the leadership of then President Mikheil Saakashvili was used to help reframe how the country was viewed in Western capitals. The earlier Institutionally Blind publication in this series has addressed the issue of Western politicians being involved in pro-regime groups and sympathetic election monitoring missions, though Lewis and Hooper expand on those issues here. [46]   In addition to the Russian, Kazakhstani and Azerbaijani cases addressed by other authors it is worth noting that US and European lobbying firms have played an active role supporting different factions and oligarchs in Ukrainian politics since the Orange Revolution, with the same firm sometimes representing entirely different viewpoints from one year to the next,[47] with both Trump and Clinton Election Campaign Managers Paul Manafort and John Podesta having previous links to President Yanukovych’s party and groups such as the European Centre for a Modern Ukraine.[48] Some of the more closed Central Asian regimes have focused on support for small scale friendship groups such as the British Uzbek Society.[49]   FSU governments are not the only voices from the region that try to shape the international narrative about their countries. In a similar fashion, opposition forces from the region have sought to support events and analysis from those with a more critical take on what is going on. For example, a number of groups linked to jailed billionaire Mikael Khodorkovsky and his former company Yukos Oil engaged with think tanks and other organisations that took a more critical line on Putin’s Russia.[50] Since his release Khodorkovsky and his family have developed a number of organisations including the Open Russian Foundation and the affiliated research arm the Institute of Modern Russia to influence the debate on Russia, who partner with other think tanks to host events.[51] Opposition groups and out-of-favour oligarchs work with public affairs firms to protect their personal and legal interests and attempt to influence Western public opinion in a more regime critical direction.   Countries from across the former Soviet Union are making use of Western-style soft power tools to influence public opinion and promote their interests, even when they are restricting the reach of Western organisations within their own borders. This essay collection seeks to give an overview of the developing landscape, assess the key issues and put forward new approaches on how best to respond to the challenge.   What our authors say   Rasťo Kužel looks at the popularity of Russian media in the former Soviet Union countries. He points out the differences in the role and reach of the main Russian channels in Armenia, Belarus and Moldova, compared to Azerbaijan, Georgia and Ukraine.  He concludes that while it is not easy to estimate the real impact of Russian propaganda in these countries, it is clear that the lack of objective reporting, as well as a lack of diverse views among Russian-speaking audiences, poses a real challenge across the region. Kužel believes that if national media enjoyed high levels of trust and popularity in the Eastern Partnership countries, it would serve as a good tool against Russian media propaganda and criticises the fact that governments in these countries have done very little or nothing to encourage the existence of an independent, vibrant and competitive media landscape, essential for providing a variety of news and views.   Natalya Antelava writes that in Ukraine, the international media was not ready for the disinformation onslaught and was involuntarily aiding the alternative narrative constructed by the Kremlin. The mistakes of Western media outlets in Ukraine offer valuable lessons to all journalists covering the ‘post-fact’, ‘post-truth’ world.   Dr Justin Schlosberg critically reflects on the respective editorial missions of both RT and the BBC, drawing on a comparative case study analysis of coverage during the second Euromaidan conflict in Ukraine. Amid a global news paradigm where truth and reality are becoming ever more contested, he argues for a new approach to global news ethics that avoids some of the problems inherent in both the concepts of ‘impartiality’ and ‘alternative news’.   Ben Nimmo argues that Russia’s disinformation efforts in Sweden and Finland have met with mixed success. The local language variants of the Sputnik internet channel failed to penetrate or win a substantial following, and were perceived as a Kremlin propaganda tool. They closed down after less than a year. In the aftermath, evidence has emerged of a shift in policy towards a more indirect approach, using local voices which endorse official Russian government positions and policies, largely from the political fringes. This approach is still evolving; however, growing public awareness of the concept of information war and the role of political extremes in it means that the Kremlin’s information projects continue to face scepticism.   Dr David Lewis writes that while modern authoritarian states still imprison journalists and close down newspapers, they increasingly rely on more sophisticated ways to suppress criticism and skew narratives in their favour. Post-Soviet states such as Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan use slick media and lobbying operations to boost their image at home and abroad. They often hire Western PR companies to promote their views in international media, to lobby European and American politicians, and to discredit political opponents. Authoritarian states create their own think tanks and non-governmental organisations, but use such groups to promote government views. They often rely on pliant or supportive Western academics and politicians to channel official views, or to act as uncritical election monitors. Non-democratic states have also learned to use social media to their advantage, both as an effective method of surveillance and as a new platform for their messaging. Lewis argues that the international activism of Eurasia’s authoritarian states deserves more critical attention.   Melissa Hooper argues that the Russian government’s use of various media and messaging tools to disrupt the application of universal human rights norms in the EU and US, and declare democracy a failed experiment, includes a new front. This is the use of seemingly-independent think tanks and foundations to put forth xenophobic ideas that target migrant, Muslim, LGBTQ, and other minority communities as threats to those who ‘belong’. These think tanks and foundations are not independent, however, they are funded by the Russian government either directly, or by Russian-government-partnered oligarchs who act as agents to spread the Kremlin’s ideologies. Organisations such as the Institute for Democracy and Cooperation or the World Public Forum produce messaging that sacrifices the rights of minorities as they aim to demonstrate that the current EU and US democracies are failing and unsafe, and in need of replacement – which Russia can offer. For all these reasons, the EU and US governments, or at least intelligence agencies and civil society, should work together to document the funding and influence that are the source of these anti-human rights and non-evidence-based proposals.   Ana Dvali and Revaz Koiava examine how the international promotion of Georgia intensified after the 2003 Rose Revolution. The new United National Movement Government of Georgia set ambitious goals and remained committed to trying to promote the country’s image as a democratic and reformist state around the world, something its supporters believe had a great impact on the country’s development. However, critics argue that the image the government tried to create was far from reality, and the substantial amount of funds spent on promotion were a waste. The situation changed after 2012; the new Georgian Dream government has focused less on international promotion and spends fewer resources to shape international opinion. They compare the international promotion strategies of the two governments; in particular, how they have interacted with various international actors and which instruments they used to raise international awareness of the Georgian national brand.   Arzu Geybulla explores the ways in which authoritarian regimes from the former Soviet Union use lobbying and nation branding to promote their achievements and blunt criticisms. She focuses on the cases of Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, using the idea of the ‘brand state’. The essay also looks at the efforts these governments make online to harass their opponents.   Richard Giragosian writes the Republic of Armenia’s relationship with its global Armenian diaspora has always been complex, and at times, even confrontational. Yet, despite a degree of misunderstanding and a deep cultural divide, this relationship is both symbiotic and significant.  While the diaspora was deeply engaged in providing economic support to the Armenian state through the 1990s, the combination of entrenched corruption and a closed economy has ended that period of financial support and investment, though remittances particularly from those temporarily working in Russia still provide a major source of funds. The politically sophisticated Armenian diaspora, well-integrated and politically active in several Western countries, play an important role in support of Armenian foreign policy. Despite occasional differences, especially over attempts to normalise relations with Turkey, the diaspora’s diplomatic leverage gives the Armenian state a distinct advantage, particularly in contrast to their Azerbaijani and Turkish rivals. But Armenia has failed to fully harness the natural advantage of its global diaspora, and the diaspora has never fulfilled expectations of more direct engagement in such critical issues as democratisation and sustainable economic development in Armenia. [1] This collection is part of the wider Exporting Repression Series of publications and events first proposed in 2014 and work on the series first began in the early summer of 2015. [2] And indeed also update and refine its own Cold War approach to propaganda and soft power. [3] Who may be less likely to speak the national language of their home countries, particularly if they went to school in the Soviet-era. [4] A Arefjef, Russian Language at the turn of the 20th-21st Century, Centre for social forecasting and marketing-Moscow, 2012, https://www.civisbook.ru/files/File/russkij_yazyk.pdf (information found via the EED). It is worth noting however that active use of Russian is below 25 percent in Moldova, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Lithuania. [5] These international versions primarily rebroadcast domestic content with major outlets including Channel One Russia Worldwide (Pervyi Kanal) including its specific Baltic service (Pervyi Baltiyskiy Kanal), RTR Planet (RTR Planeta), NTV World (NTV Mir). [6] Examples include in Moldova Prime (Pervyi Kanal), RTR Moldova (Rossiya 1) and TV7 (NTV) among others. In Belarus they include ONT (Pervyi Kanal), STV (Ren TV), Belarus RTR (RTR), NTV Belarus (NTV). In Kyrgyzstan NTV Kyrgyzstan, in Lithuania REN Lietuva (REN). [7] Sputnik, Products and Services, https://sputniknews.com/docs/products/index.html [8] Other Russian language wire service content is available from Russian domestic services such as TASS, the domestic RIA Novosti (ria.ru) from which Sputnik was hived off, and business focused service Interfax. [9] Co-founded by Irma Inashvili the Secretary General of the anti-Western and pro-Russian Alliance of Patriots of Georgia (APG) party, with other party activists on its board Media Meter, see Obieqtivi,  http://mediameter.ge/en/media-profiles/obieqtivi and also http://www.obieqtivi.net/ [10] Nata Dzvelishvili and Tazo Kupreishvili, Russian Influence of Georgian NGOs and Media, Institute for Development of Freedom of Information, June 2015, https://idfi.ge/public/upload/IDFI/media.and.NGO.pdf and Tamar Kinturashvili, Anti-Western Propaganda: Media Monitoring Report 2014-15, Media Diversity Institute,  http://www.media-diversity.org/en/additional-files/documents/Anti-Western_Propaganda_Media_Monitoring_Report.pdf [11] RT Management, http://rt.com/about-us/management/ Nevertheless there is no real pretense that it is not a state backed broadcaster with funding from sources around the Russian Government. [12] RT’s own about us management page states RT’s 2016 funding to be 19 billion rubles, while on its own myth busting section it challenges Newsweek for using a dollar version of this figure, instead claiming that the 2016 budget is 17 billion rubles https://www.rt.com/facts-vs-fiction/. Its broadcast reach figures are sourced from research it commissioned from French Survey firm IPSOS. [13] UK National Audit Office, Report by the Comptroller and Auditor General presented to the BBC Trust Value for Money Committee, June 2016, https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/BBC-World-Service-1.pdf Note this does not include the budget or viewing figures for BBC World News or many of the BBC’s other international entertainment focused TV offerings that operate on a commercial basis. [14] About RT, https://www.rt.com/about-us/ [15] Mike Wendling and Will Yates, NATO says viral news outlet is part of “Kremlin misinformation machine, February 2017, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-38936812 [16] Including Russia, Azerbaijan, Armenia as well as much of Central Asia. [17] The license fee is a mandatory payment for using a television or watching live broadcasts online in the UK that is collected directly by the BBC. The English language BBC World News channel, with a 75million global reach is commercially funded and organised separately from the World Service. [18] The beleaguered Dozhd TV has had its broadcast access in Russia reduced in recent years. During the 2000s the BBC’s Russia service’s ability to be rebroadcast via domestic radio partners dwindled due to the increasingly restricted media environment. [19] Tara Conlan,BBC World Service to receive £289m from government, November 2015, https://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/nov/23/bbc-world-service-receive-289m-from-government This funding, £289 million over 5 years, will cover services across the world including ‘new radio services in North Korea, Ethiopia and Eritrea; a better TV service in Africa; additional language broadcasts via digital and television in India and Nigeria; better regional content for the BBC Arabic Service, improved digital and TV services in Russia and for Russian speakers; and improved video across its output.’ [20] BBC, BBC Kyrgyz marks 20 years on air with special content – and 3 million weekly reach on TV, June 2016, http://www.bbc.co.uk/mediacentre/latestnews/2016/bbc-kyrgyz-20-years [21] RFE/RL Language Services,  http://pressroom.rferl.org/p/6087.html [22] Broadcasting Board of Governors, Current Time, February 2017, https://www.bbg.gov/2017/02/07/current-time-independent-russian-language-news-network/ [23] ITU, ICT STATISTICS Home Page, http://www.itu.int/en/ITU-D/Statistics/Pages/default.aspx Some of these higher figures need to be treated with caution given concerns about the standards of statistical collection in these restrictive countries. [24] Max Seddon, Documents Show How Russia’s Troll Army Hit America, June 2014, https://www.buzzfeed.com/maxseddon/documents-show-how-russias-troll-army-hit-america?utm_term=.jlBoWJdZ#.ep4zYXNM; Shaun Walker, Salutin’ Putin: inside a Russian troll house,  Guardian, April 2015, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/apr/02/putin-kremlin-inside-russian-troll-house; See also NATO Stratcom, Internet Trolling as a hybrid warfare tool: the case of Latvia, http://www.stratcomcoe.org/internet-trolling-hybrid-warfare-tool-case-latvia-0 [25] Anna Nemtsova, Vladimir Putin’s biggest fan club: Media-savvy youth group Set is churning out propaganda and clothing to promote Russia’s leader, December 2014, http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/vladimir-putins-biggest-fan-club-media-savvy-youth-group-set-is-churning-out-propaganda-and-clothing-9901715.html [26] Tom Balmforth, ‘We fight for democracy’ – Russia’s pro-Kremlin youth respond to propaganda warning, February 2015, Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/feb/03/russia-ukraine-pro-kremlin-youth-respond-propaganda-warning [27] An example would include Maria Katasonova and the People’s Liberation Front whose sympathies are linked to the international ‘alt-right’ and who have been active in challenging independent NGOs and participating in pro-Trump trolling around the 2016 US Election. See https://www.ft.com/content/d53f326e-54db-11e6-befd-2fc0c26b3c60 and https://www.pri.org/stories/2017-01-20/youth-movement-will-be-partying-friday-make-america-great-again-russia [28] It should be noted of course that Armenia has an active nationalist presence on social media, both from within the country and in the diaspora with a similar focus on Nagorno Karabakh (albeit from the opposite perspective) and Genocide Recognition. [29] Arzu Geybulla, In the crosshairs of Azerbaijan’s patriotic trolls, November 2016, https://opendemocracy.net/od-russia/arzu-geybulla/azerbaijan-patriotic-trolls [30] Claudio Guarnieri, Joshua Franco and Collin Anderson, False Friends: How Fake Accounts and Crude Malware Targeted Dissidents in Azerbaijan, Amnesty International, March 2017, https://medium.com/amnesty-insights/false-friends-how-fake-accounts-and-crude-malware-targeted-dissidents-in-azerbaijan-9b6594cafe60#.bw6r2ievd [31] See for example Human Rights Watch, Azerbaijan: Illegal Evictions Ahead of Eurovision, February 2012, https://www.hrw.org/news/2012/02/17/azerbaijan-illegal-evictions-ahead-eurovision [32] Trend News Agency, Baku to host European Men’s Artistic Gymnastics Championship, February 2017, http://en.trend.az/azerbaijan/society/2717249.html [33] Dan Palmer, Baku to host 2019 Summer European Youth Olympic Festival, January 2017, http://www.insidethegames.biz/articles/1045735/baku-to-host-2019-summer-european-youth-olympic-festival [34] SOCAR, Make Your Debut, http://makeyourdebutsocar.com/en_gb/about-socar [35] Owen Gibson, Azerbaijan’s sponsorship of Atlético Madrid proves spectacular success May 2014, https://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/may/01/azerbaijan-sponsorship-atletico-madrid-spectacular-success [36] As well as puff pieces in Western lifestyle magazines, Azerbaijan’s first daughter Leyla Aliyeva was even able to persuade Conde Nast to set up its own Azerbaijan focused glossy, Baku Magazine, http://www.baku-magazine.com/magazine/ [37] Azerbaijan’s Amazing Transformation (Discovery Channel), June 2014, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YBSB_2CM7UA [38] Did the Winter Olympics in Sochi really cost $50 billion? A closer look at that figure. https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/did-the-winter-olympics-in-sochi-really-cost-50-billion-a-closer-look-at-that-figure/2014/02/10/a29e37b4-9260-11e3-b46a-5a3d0d2130da_story.html?utm_term=.aa33a3c30ac4 [39] It’s we light up football adverts are an integral part of the match television coverage https://www.gazprom-football.com/en/Home.htm. See also Jack Pitt Brook, Chelsea vs Schalke: Controversial Gazprom deals cast cloud ahead of Champions League game, Independent, September 2014, http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/european/chelsea-vs-schalke-controversial-gazprom-deals-cast-cloud-ahead-of-champions-league-game-9736801.html [40] Though again it is worth being clear that Gazprom has a number of subsidiaries active in the German market. [41] Congress of Leaders of World and Traditional Religions, http://www.religions-congress.org/index.php?lang=english [42] Akmola became Kazakhstan’s Capital in December 1997 with its name changed to Astana in May 1998. The Astana cycling team was founded in 2007 [43] Astana President’s Professional Sports Club http://www.astanaproteam.kz/modules.php?name=astana&page=kazakhstan-club&pid=65 [44] Heaping on the Caviar Democracy, 1843 Magazine (The Economist) https://www.1843magazine.com/features/heaping-on-the-caviar-diplomacy [45] Adam Hug (ed.), Sharing worst practice: How countries and institutions in the former Soviet Union help create legal tools of repression, May 2016, http://fpc.org.uk/publications/sharingworstpractice [46] Adam Hug (ed.), Institutionally blind? International organisations and human rights abuses in the former Soviet Union, February 2016, http://fpc.org.uk/publications/institutionallyblind [47] Andrew Rettman, Ukraine chief seeks friends in EU capital, EU Observer, October 2010, https://euobserver.com/foreign/31161 APCO Worldwide for example has provided support to the Presidential Administrations of both President Yushchenko and President Yanukovych as well as to the Premiership during the term of Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, http://www.odwyerpr.com/story/public/4873/2015-06-29/apco-gives-pr-support-embattled-ukraine.html and http://www.smi-online.co.uk/documentportal/speakerprofile/148501.pdf [48] See Luke Harding, How Trump’s campaign chief got a strongman elected president of Ukraine, August 2016, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/aug/16/donald-trump-campaign-paul-manafort-ukraine-yanukovich and Eli Lake,Ukraine’s D.C. Lobbyists in Disarray as Dictator Flees, http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/02/25/ukraine-s-d-c-lobbyists-in-disarray-as-dictator-flees.html [49] Corporate Europe Observatory, Spin doctors to the autocrats: How European PR firms whitewash repressive regimes, January 2015, https://corporateeurope.org/sites/default/files/20150120_spindoctors_mr.pdf [50] This engagement during this period included with the Foreign Policy Centre. [51] See for example: Henry Jackson Society, Event: ’25 Years On: Russia Since the Fall of the Soviet Union’, December 2016, http://henryjacksonsociety.org/2016/12/07/event-25-years-on-russia-since-the-fall-of-the-soviet-union/
                Related Articles

                How many people watch Russian media in the former Soviet Union countries?

                Article by Rasťo Kužel

                How many people watch Russian media in the former Soviet Union countries?

                Television remains the most efficient method of influencing public opinion in the Former Soviet Union (FSU) countries. So what is the real impact of Russian TV channels in these countries? The situation differs from country to country. This essay takes a closer look at the Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries. The role of the main Russian channels is more significant in Armenia, Belarus and Moldova, where these channels are still freely available[1] and remain quite popular, than in Azerbaijan, Georgia and Ukraine, where the potential impact of these channels is more limited. In Ukraine, and to some extent also in Georgia, the popularity of Russian media has been undermined due to the armed conflicts in 2014 and 2008 respectively.[2]

                 

                Notwithstanding the war with Russia nine years ago, the potential impact of Russian propaganda in Georgian society is still significant. During the 2016 parliamentary elections, unlike in previous campaigns, there were more parties that directly or indirectly pursued anti-Western views and openly advocated closer relations with Russia. One of them, the Alliance of Patriots, which favoured greater integration with Russia and opposed Georgia joining NATO, was able to narrowly pass the 5 percent threshold needed to get into the parliament. By comparison, many smaller parties with a clear pro-Western orientation failed to win any seats.

                 

                According to National Democratic Institute research, twenty percent of television viewers in Georgia watch via satellite, cable and the internet the news and current affairs programmes on foreign channels, with the majority of these people relying on Russian channels, notably Channel One, RTR and Russia 1. English speaking channels, such as CNN, Euronews and BBC World Service were only the fifth, sixth and eighth preferred information sources on the list.[3] The pro-Russian narrative can be found in some Georgian media as well. Monitoring conducted by the Media Development Foundation (MDF) in 2014 and 2015 found that Russian propaganda was present in the form of anti-Western rhetoric on three media outlets. More specifically, it was Georgian channel Obiektivi, which is a general broadcast licensee available via cable networks, and two websites, sakinformi.ge and geworld.ge. The study further revealed that this type of reporting was not present on the mainstream media.[4]

                 

                The potential impact of Russian media is more significant in ethnic minority areas, where Georgian language media does not have a good outreach. For example, in the Javakheti region, people have always had problems receiving local news, so they mainly watch Russian channels. The majority of the population in minority-settled areas use Russian channels as their primary source of information. Regrettably, the central Georgian media do not report stories that are relevant to the minority-populated regions. The situation is even worse in Abkhazia with almost no Georgian mainstream media present there. According to a poll conducted by the Caucasus Research Resource Center (CRRC) for National Democratic Institute (NDI) in 2016, as many as 30 percent of people in minority settlements opined that Georgia’s foreign policy should be pro-Russian, with only 7 percent favouring a pro-Western orientation. By contrast, 16 percent of respondents who lived in urban areas with access to Georgian mainstream media preferred pro-Western foreign policy orientation against 8 percent who preferred pro-Russian.[5] As such, it is clear that Russia’s influence is more significant in those areas where there is no alternative information to Kremlin narratives.

                 

                In Ukraine, some measures restricting Russian media have been introduced as a result of the conflict in the eastern part of the country, including a ban on Russian channels introduced by the broadcasting regulator in July 2014. In a survey by the NGO Detector Media 13.2 percent of Ukrainian households could receive the Russian channel Channel 1, 12.2 percent could get NTV, 11.6 percent Russia TV and 6.8 percent Dozhd. Of these viewers the mechanisms through which they access Russian media is via satellite (78.7 percent), the Internet (7.8 percent), cable TV (5.8 percent) and using an analogue antenna (37.4 percent in the east of Ukraine).[6] According to Diana Dutsyk, executive director of NGO Detector Media, the information war carried out by Russia against Ukraine has been a dominant factor influencing the quality of reporting. Some journalists drawn into this conflict started performing a counter-propaganda role, which, in her opinion, consequently makes media discourse biased, engaged, and emotional.[7] As a result, people are often confused and not able to tell the facts from controversial points, which is the principal aim of Russian propaganda. For example, when asked who was guilty of shooting down of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 in a poll by the Levada Centre, as many as 81 percent of ethnic Russian respondents living in Ukraine put the blame on the Ukrainian military. Notwithstanding the evidence that the plane was downed by a Buk-M1 anti-aircraft missile fired from rebel-controlled territory, their positions appeared to be aligned with the Russian channels’ reporting which suggested that either a Ukrainian missile or a Ukrainian aircraft was responsible for shooting down the plane.[8]

                 

                A poll conducted by the Kyiv International Sociology Institute for Detector Media in December 2016 found that some 87 percent of Ukrainians receive news primarily from Ukrainian national channels, while almost 8 percent use Russian TV channels. As for the military conflict in Donbass, Ukrainian TV is trusted the most (40 percent), whereas trust in Russian television is very low (only 1.3 percent). At the same time, however, when asked to what extent they believed that the Kyiv events of winter 2014 were an illegal military coup d’état, as many as 34.3 percent of respondents agreed, and about 48 percent disagreed.[9] The Kremlin-sponsored narratives have the biggest impact in eastern Ukraine, including in the territories controlled by Ukraine, given the availability of the majority of Russian media. Only about half of the population in the ATO zone has access to Ukrainian channels, with people from several districts near occupied Crimea being able to watch only Russian television channels.[10]

                 

                In Belarus, Russian content is dominant in the media with television channels relying on entertainment and other programming provided by Russian television networks. Pro-Kremlin media continues to play a significant role, with their news and entertainment shows available on TV channels that are free of charge (including on so called hybrid channels, such as NTV Belarus or RTR Belarus). For example, when answering a question on their opinion about the accession of Crimea by Russia, 59 percent of Belarusians opined that it was a reunification of Russian lands with Russia, a restoration of historical justice which was the official Russian version of the story pursued by the main Russian TV channels.[11] Interfax-Zapad and Prime-TASS, two Russian-owned information agencies, sell newswire services to other media in Belarus. As for non-Russian foreign ownership, it remains very limited, with Russian companies in charge of two popular newspapers, Komsomolskaya Pravda v Byelorussii and Argumenty i Fakty, two news agencies, Interfax-Zapad and Prime-TASS, and VTV, an entertainment television channel.

                 

                In Azerbaijan, only a small segment of the population uses Russian TV channels as their information source, and they are available only through cable television, satellite antenna or the Internet (the same as in Georgia). At the same time, however, when reviewing the content of Azerbaijani TV channels, it is possible to find similarities with the Russian media narratives in the way they portray foreign affairs. The mainstream media in Azerbaijan defend the state from the global information war being waged by Western countries. Russian, as well as Turkish media outlets, contribute to such conspiracy theories. Several resources in Russian serve the Russian-speaking minority. It has to be said however that none of these differ in content from those broadcast in Azerbaijani. Almost all the main news media also broadcast in Russian.

                 

                According to studies conducted in Moldova, Russian media has the highest credibility among 15 percent of the population. By comparison, 13 per cent of the population trusts Moldovan media and 7 percent Romanian.[12] The propaganda from Kremlin-controlled Russian TV channels that is rebroadcast in Moldova, as well as a launch of an online portal Sputnik in 2015, further influenced the media sector. The media in general adapt the editorial content knowing that Romanian language speakers have a more pro-Western orientation, while those that speak Russian are usually pro-Russian.

                 

                In Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and Azerbaijan, reporting by the leading local media on key local and global issues offers an alternative to reporting by Russian channels and thus helps to ‘balance’ their impact. The media in the countries that are members of the Eurasian Economic Union, Belarus and Armenia, are not able to offset the impact of Russian media as the leading local TV channels (with comparable viewership to the Russian channels) are constrained in covering controversial external political problems.[13] In Armenia, the coverage of the armed conflict in Ukraine clearly demonstrated that it was mostly presented by the mainstream media in a similar way to that of pro-Kremlin channels. The major proportion of international news broadcast by television outlets is based on that provided by Russian channels.

                 

                Ethnic Russians form the largest minority group in many Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries. Moreover, many people were taught in the Russian language which makes a significant portion of the population bilingual – and thus able to follow the Russian media. When it comes to particular programmes, it is the news programmes on Russian TV channels that are particularly attractive to audiences. People consider them to be more professional than the available local alternatives. Russian media have sufficient facilities and equipment for the production and distribution of news. Four major state television channels that receive both state funding and advertising revenue provide programmes of a very high technical quality, creating high audience expectations in this respect. The Russian media best succeed in influencing public opinion particularly in those countries where their broadcasting is not restricted. This is apparent in how people in the EaP countries perceive what is happening in Ukraine as well as the confrontation between Russia and the West.

                 

                Politicians in the Kremlin make no secret of the fact that they are spending millions of dollars on messaging that supports their worldview and their larger strategic goals. When looking closer at the content of Russian TV channels, it becomes clear that the Kremlin has taken information propaganda into the national security context to significantly influence the opinions and dispositions of local and international society. The Russian narrative consists of emotional messages aimed at creating negative stereotypes of ethnic, religious and sexual minorities, discrediting the Western political or cultural space and supporting homophobic and xenophobic opinions among the public. By pursuing these myths, Russia posits itself as the only real ally to FSU countries with a collective identity, faith, history and culture. Simultaneously, it portrays the West as an existential threat to all the values mentioned above.[14]

                 

                While it is not easy to estimate the real impact of Russian propaganda in FSU countries, it is clear that the lack of objective reporting, as well as a lack of diverse views among Russian-speaking audiences, poses a real challenge across the region. The various monitoring exercises of Russian media revealed that the Kremlin does not appear to aim so much at justifying its domestic and foreign policies, but rather at undermining the confidence of international audiences in the legitimacy of their governments and, in more general terms, Western liberal values.

                 

                Russian TV channels still matter in most of the FSU countries. It is also possible to conclude that Russia’s influence is more significant in those areas where there is no alternative information to Kremlin narratives. It is however important to have good quality reporting as a real alternative and not channels which defend the state and serve as its propaganda tools. The national media enjoying high level of trust and popularity in the EaP countries would serve as a good tool against the Russian media propaganda. Regrettably, EaP countries have done very little or nothing to encourage the existence of an independent, vibrant and competitive media landscape, which is essential for providing a variety of news and views. The former Vice President of the United States Hubert Humphrey once said: “Propaganda, to be effective, must be believed. To be believed, it must be credible. To be credible, it must be true.” In the times when we are exposed to lies, half-truths and disinformation, we need good quality reporting which should be supported in all countries affected by Russian propaganda.

                 

                 

                [1] Mainly through terrestrial transmitters but also in the form of localized version of Russian TV channels (for example NTV – Belarus).

                [2] Monitoring of Russian channels by MEMO 98, Internews Ukraine and Yerevan Press Club,  Independent Journalism Center (Moldova), Yeni Nesil Union of Journalists (Azerbaijan), Belarusian Association of Journalists (Belarus), and Georgian Charter for Journalistic Ethics (Georgia), Final report 2015 http://memo98.sk/uploads/content_galleries/source/memo/russia/full-report-in-english.pdf

                [3] Public Attitudes in Georgia, National Democratic Institute. April 2016, https://www.ndi.org/sites/default/files/NDI%20Georgia_April%202015%20Poll_Public%20Issues_ENG_VF_0.pdf

                [4] Anti-western propaganda, media monitoring report, Media Development Foundation. 2014-15, http://mdfgeorgia.ge/eng/library/Anti-Western+propaganda

                [5] National Democratic Institute, Public Attitudes in Georgia, Nov 2016, https://www.ndi.org/sites/default/files/NDI_November%202016%20poll_Issues_ENG_vf.pdf

                [6] Survey of Russian propaganda Influence on Public Opinion in Ukraine was conducted by Kyiv International Institute of Sociology for NGO Detector Media in December 2016 http://osvita.mediasapiens.ua/detector_media_en/reports_eng/survey_of_russian_propaganda_influence_on_public_opinion_in_ukraine_findings/

                [7] IREX Media Sustainability Index, Ukraine 2016 https://www.irex.org/sites/default/files/pdf/media-sustainability-index-europe-eurasia-2016-ukraine.pdf

                [8] Gerard Toal and John O’Loughlin, Russian and Ukrainian TV viewers live on different planets, Washington Post, February 2015, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2015/02/26/russian-and-ukrainian-tv-viewers-live-on-different-planets/?utm_term=.08bd4269803f

                [9] Survey of Russian propaganda Influence on Public Opinion in Ukraine was conducted by Kyiv International Institute of Sociology for NGO Detector Media in December 2016 http://osvita.mediasapiens.ua/detector_media_en/reports_eng/survey_of_russian_propaganda_influence_on_public_opinion_in_ukraine_findings/

                [10] ATO zone or Anti-Terrorist Operation Zone is a term used to identify Ukrainian territory of Donetsk and Luhansk regions under control of Russian military forces and pro-Russian separatists.

                [11] A public opinion poll conducted by the Independent Institute of Socio-Economic and Political Studies in March 2015 available at http://www.iiseps.org/analitica/829

                [12] The Barometer of Public Opinion of the Institute of Public Policy in October-November 2014 at http://www.ipp.md/?l=en

                [13] Monitoring of Russian channels by MEMO 98, Internews Ukraine and Yerevan Press Club,  Independent Journalism Center (Moldova), “Yeni Nesil” Union of Journalists (Azerbaijan), Belarusian Association of Journalists (Belarus), and Georgian Charter for Journalistic Ethics (Georgia), Final report 2015 http://memo98.sk/uploads/content_galleries/source/memo/russia/full-report-in-english.pdf

                [14] Ibid.

                Footnotes
                  Related Articles

                  How (not to) cover lies: Lessons of Russian disinformation

                  Article by Natalia Antelava

                  How (not to) cover lies: Lessons of Russian disinformation

                  On March 12 2014, long before anyone could imagine Donald Trump becoming President of the United States and concepts of ‘fake news’ and ‘alternative facts’ turning into global buzzwords, a group of journalists gathered outside a Ukrainian military base in Perevalnoe, outside Simferopol, the regional capital of Crimea. Standing next to several dozen screaming protestors, the journalists, many of them from Russia, watched how hundreds of soldiers armed with Kalashnikovs and light antitank missiles and wearing balaclavas and brand-new insignia-free uniforms, lined up along the perimeter of the long concrete fence surrounding the base.

                   

                  The events unfolding in Crimea were so bizarre, so unprecedented, none of us journalists quite knew how to describe them. Later, Russian channels would call it “re-unification” and the rest of the world would label it annexation but at the time no one could be quite sure what Putin’s game in Crimea was. The Russian media, however, seemed to have been under strict orders. “Do these soldiers look like volunteers to you?” a chain-smoking Russian TV journalist in Perevalnoe asked me, crowning the rhetorical question with an elaborate profanity. Minutes earlier I had overheard him on his phone with the editor in Moscow after his TV crew lost their live link to the studio. The editor told him the link had been cut because the reporter called Russian soldiers Russian soldiers and that he would either have to stick to ‘volunteer battalions’ or leave Crimea. “I am ashamed,” said the journalist, who asked me not to name him. But from then on, following his editor’s and Vladimir Putin’s lead, he would only refer to the Russian troops in Crimea as “self-organised volunteer battalions.” A mortgage and three children, he explained to me, is what made him stick to the lie.

                   

                  Western journalists covering Crimea and the subsequent war in Eastern Ukraine did not have to make difficult moral choices, but they too were pushed into an alternative reality constructed by the Kremlin, and involuntarily aided its narrative. Fast forward three years and today we live in the world where ‘post truth’ is a real word and alternative reality has spread far beyond the borders of the former Soviet Union. Whether it is covering the effects of Brexit on the NHS or politicians in Washington who now present ‘alternative facts’, reporting on lies is more than ever part of the job description of many journalists. And as journalists find their way in our post-fact, post-truth world, they should learn from the mistakes the Western media made in Ukraine.

                   

                  The Ukraine conflict became a real challenge to the accepted rules of Western-style ‘objective’ reporting. Balance is at the core of Western journalism, which teaches reporters to present multiple sides of the story and to make sure that all their reporting is based on information that can be verified. But the Ukraine conflict, more so than any crisis before it, showed that unless this quest for balance is accompanied with in-depth, committed, nuanced reporting, it works against the larger goal of providing an accurate picture of what is going on.

                  The reason why Ukraine became the litmus test for international media was because it was the first crisis truly saturated with lies and disinformation from all sides. Of course propaganda, and fake news have always been part of any conflict, but in the era of information overload, where every opinion has a platform, disinformation reached an entirely new level.

                   

                  The international media did not seem to be ready for the disinformation assault. With a flurry of press-releases, statements and interviews the Kremlin skilfully disputed the facts on the ground, and the Western media used the Kremlin’s lines to provide ‘balance’ to those facts on the ground. Unlike Russian journalists, most of my colleagues from the Western media outlets did not use Vladimir Putin’s ‘volunteer self-defence unit’ term to describe the Russian soldiers, but very few actually called them what they were: Russian troops. Instead they used more obscure terms like ‘unidentified soldiers’ or ‘little green men’.[1]  This, academic Marta Dyzhok argues, means that as a result the media failed to frame the story clearly, allowing allowed disinformation to shape the narrative. In other words, unwillingly the international media endorsed a lie. Dyzhok writes ‘The choice of images, terminology, information presented or omitted in many international media reports is one reason that the entire issue of what happened in Crimea, how, why, and the results, are still subject to debate. To an uninformed audience, it was not evident whether Russia was protecting ethnic Russians from an illegitimate fascist, right-wing government in Kiev, or whether Russia was invading a neighbouring country. The fact that Crimea’s legitimately elected government was deposed at gunpoint was not highlighted, yet plenty of attention was devoted to the event called a referendum a few weeks later’.[2]

                   

                  The Ukrainian conflict was, by no means, underreported. It was covered extensively albeit with, typical for the media, lulls in between outbursts of coverage when the global media attention moved elsewhere. However, despite some outstanding pieces of reportage, for the most part Western media simply juxtaposed two opposing narratives, without going deeper or finding hard evidence of lies on either side.

                   

                  Of course, lack of depth and superficiality are accusations made about journalism on virtually every subject, and the media often has very legitimate reasons to be superficial. The very nature of large-scale news operations on breaking news stories lends them to superficiality: reporters are rotated in and out of the conflict, while on the ground they are asked to file constant updates and their reporting is complimented, or balanced, with arrays of studio interviews that offer plenty of opinions. But in the age of the constant onslaught of alternative opinions, facts and information, this proved to be a dangerous way to operate.

                   

                  ‘Perhaps the greatest shortcoming in international reporting was that the causes of violence were not adequately explored’. Dyzhok argues that the same applied to the coverage of the Maidan protests which proceeded Crimea saying that ‘Dramatic images of clashes were widely circulated, and made it onto many top-photos-of-2014 lists. (However, the overwhelming majority of protesters were peaceful, creative, and only a small extreme element advocated violent methods. The radicals caught the attention of the cameras, as did their slogans and nationalist insignia). But few reports were asking the question: ‘who instigated the violence?’[3]

                   

                  The first lesson of Ukraine is that in the era when information is a weapon, ‘who’ and ‘why’ should take priority over of journalism’s other Ws: ‘when’ and ‘what’. It is asking the ‘who’ and ‘why’ questions that allow journalists to cut through noise and lies, go beyond superficiality of the daily news cycle, to report in-depth and to confront ‘fake news’ head on.

                   

                  And this is also where Ukraine offers its second lesson. Today, as media professionals and experts debate ‘fake news’ some ask whether confronting fake news is necessary at all? In an article ‘Is fake news a fake problem?’ Jacob Nelson, a PhD candidate at Northwestern University argues that according to his research, fake news audiences remain extremely small and users of ‘fake news’ sites often visit other, legitimate media sources.[4]

                   

                  But Nelson’s own conclusion is counter-intuitive to his argument, writing that ‘If half of the fake news audience had been approaching both real and fake news for the past year with an open mind, you would expect that audience to shrink as readers eventually abandoned fake news sites. That this has not happened suggests the fake news audience isn’t reading real news because they believe it might also be accurate, but because these sources are popular and they want to know how the rest of the world ‘falsely’ understands current events. If this is indeed the case, it means solving the fake news problem will be much trickier than limiting its supply.’

                   

                  Nelson notes that so far, solutions to fake news problems focus on myth-busting and fact-checking websites. ‘Facebook recently integrated fact-checking into its publication process, while Google no longer allows Google-served advertising to appear on sites that ‘misrepresent’ information’.[5] Others focus on improving journalism: BuzzFeed Editor-in-Chief Ben Smith has advocated for more support for objective, accurate reporting as a way to counterbalance the fake news creeping its way across social media feeds.[6]

                   

                  But Ukraine showed that none of this is enough. The danger and power of fake news, whether state-funded like it is in Russia or commercially driven as it often is with sites in the United States, is that it distorts reality, introduces doubt and undermines legitimate arguments. If in the Soviet time’s the Kremlin’s goal was to get people on its side, these days the goal is to make them think that ‘everyone else is bad’. Fake news designed for click-bait may have a different goal, but ultimately they have the same effect: they muddy fact-based narratives, create alternative realities, maim truth and allow politicians to call anything or anyone “fake news”.

                   

                  In Ukraine very few Western reporters made an effort to investigate the greatest triggers of violence: the lies, from both sides, which helped to fuel the conflict. As the Ukrainian media responded to the Kremlin’s information war with its own, a lot less sophisticated and much more chaotic propaganda onslaught, the Western media chose to stay out of it. It seemed as if the international media organizations never asked themselves the question which is topping their agenda now: How do we cover lies? In the case of Ukraine: how do we show the correlation between the lies broadcast on television and the battle unfolding on the ground. Balanced reporting is not enough to cover the murky, slippery subject of disinformation, and as I found out for myself it is only when journalists get in to specifics that a lie can convincingly be de-bunked.

                   

                  For a long time, amid constant live updates covering the war for the BBC, I did not have the time and resources to focus on the disinformation element of the war, even though I was always acutely aware of how the hatred broadcast on Russian TV screens led to bloodletting on the ground. That parallel reality was also less of a priority for my editors, who were more interested in clearer, more easily digestible, newsier stories of gun-battles and protests. But in April 2015, while buying a quick snack in a supermarket in Donetsk my producer Abdujalil Abdurasulov and I overheard two women discussing a devastating rocket attack that killed a 10 year old girl in the city’s suburbs. The women were understandably angry with the Ukrainian troops (“the neo-nazis” as they referred to them) who had fired the rocket. The story had been picked up by all Russian channels and we decided to look into it as well. There was a slight lull in news at the time, which allowed us to spend a couple of days on the story – an unbelievable luxury in the world of daily news. The rebel spokesperson Eduard Basurin, confirmed the death of the girl to us and the area where she was killed, but he refused to give the family’s address, so we then spent hours looking for them in the area where the attack had allegedly taken place. When we didn’t find any traces of the family or the attack, we went to hospitals and the city’s morgue that should have received the body of the girl, they had not. Eventually, we approached Russian television crew that had reported on the story and they confessed, on camera, that “the girl never existed” and that they broadcast the story because “they were told to”.

                   

                  The piece on the Donetsk girl that never existed ended up being one of the BBC’s most watched TV pieces from Eastern Ukraine, with almost 2 million views on Facebook alone. By the time the piece had aired, Vladimir Putin had himself debunked his own lie of ‘volunteer battalions’ by admitting that they were indeed Russian troops.[7] It cemented the narrative of ‘Russian disinformation’ within the Western media mind-set, but the fact that the ultimate de-bunking was done by Putin himself also de-legitimised it. I have not been able to find a single piece of journalism that managed to trace a ‘little green man’ in Crimea to his hometown in Russia. Later on, the pieces that provided specific, vivid, character-based examples of this disinformation remained few and far between. Among the most notable examples was an excellent investigation by Simon Ostrovsky for Vice News which traced a story of an alleged ‘volunteer soldier’ in Eastern Ukraine back to his military base in Buriatia, Russia. What made Ostrovsky’s reportage so effective and so widely watched was the fact that it went beyond stating that ‘Russians lie’, instead it asked ‘who’ and it explained ‘why’.[8]

                   

                  This, I believe, is the only way that the media can counter the menace of fake news.  It is only through specific characters that media can break through the fog of generalities which is the oxygen that disinformation breathes. If fake news thrives on characters that don’t exist, like Syrian refugees who rape girls in Frankfurt, then reporting that counters them should too rely on specific, compelling characters that debunk these myths.

                   

                  This is the kind of journalism that requires the most commitment and resources, but without which we will continue to present to our increasingly sophisticated audiences simplified and ultimately misleading narratives about the world.

                   

                  In Ukraine, lack of these questions ultimately led to the victory of ‘fake news’ over real news. Of course, the Russian disinformation did not convince global public opinion that all Ukrainians were ‘neo-nazis’, but it never meant to. It won because it stripped the Western media of its ability to frame the crisis clearly.

                   

                  Perhaps the greatest lesson of Ukraine is that without editorial commitment to in-depth, nuanced reporting on complex crises, the media will continue to sink deeper into its own echo-chamber, polarizing societies rather than informing them and endorsing fake news instead of proving them what they are: lies.

                  [1] Vitaly Shevchenko, “Little green men” or “Russian invaders”?, BBC News, March 2014,

                  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26532154

                  [2] Marta Dyczok, The Ukraine Story in Western Media, E-International Relations, April 2015,

                  http://www.e-ir.info/2015/04/30/the-ukraine-story-in-western-media/

                  [3] Marta Dyczok, ibid.

                  [4] Jacob L Nelson, Is ‘fake news’ a fake problem? Columbia Journalism Review, January 2017,

                  http://www.cjr.org/analysis/fake-news-facebook-audience-drudge-breitbart-study.php

                  [5] Ken Doctor, Newsonomics: Fake-news fury forces Google and Facebook to change policy, Nieman Lab, November 2016, http://www.niemanlab.org/2016/11/newsonomics-fake-news-fury-forces-google-and-facebook-to-change-policy/ See also Emily Bell, Facebook drains the fake news swamp with new, experimental partnerships, December 2016, http://www.cjr.org/tow_center/facebook_drains_fake_news_swamp_new_experimental_partnerships.php

                  [6] Ben Smith, How can Tech and Media fight fake news, November 2016, http://www.cjr.org/first_person/ben_smith_fake_news_buzzfeed_facebook.php

                  [7] Shaun Walker, Putin admits Russian military presence in Ukraine for first time, December 2015, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/17/vladimir-putin-admits-russian-military-presence-ukraine See also RT, Putin acknowledges Russian military serviceman were in Crimea, April 2014, https://www.rt.com/news/crimea-defense-russian-soldiers-108/

                  [8] Simon Ostrovsky, Selfie Soldiers: Russia Checks in to Ukraine, Vice News, June 2015, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2zssIFN2mso

                  Footnotes
                    Related Articles

                     Join our mailing list 

                    Keep informed about events, articles & latest publications from Foreign Policy Centre

                    JOIN