Skip to content

Looking at Indonesia’s G20 Agenda

Article by Dr Ahmad Rizky M. Umar

September 4, 2023

Looking at Indonesia’s G20 Agenda

There are three broad issues that Indonesia will be pursuing at the G20 Summit this year, which primarily relate to their economic and development agenda.

 

Indonesia’s first agenda priority will be the further implementation and realisation of the 2022 G20 Summit commitments. Indonesia successfully chaired the G20 last year, which produced the ‘G20 Action for Strong and Inclusive Recovery’ and the historic ‘Bali G20 Declaration’.[1] There are three key issues that Indonesia pushed last year, including digital transformation, sustainable energy transition, and global health architecture. These issues are related to Indonesia’s current foreign policy priority to support post-pandemic economic recovery and, more specifically, Indonesia’s focus on its national economic transformation, particularly when it comes to the digitalisation of its financial sector and energy security.

 

Related to this agenda priority, Indonesia is also currently seeking broader economic diplomacy with other major economies. Indonesia aims to find foreign financing for its ambitious infrastructure projects, including the development of high-speed railways, and industrialisation initiatives in its outer provinces. Indonesia also seeks to fund the relocation of the country’s capital from Jakarta to East Kalimantan, which requires massive investment. For these purposes, Indonesia bilaterally engages with other G20 members and wishes to connect the G20’s economic recovery agenda with its own to bring more economic benefits domestically.

 

Finally, Indonesia will use the G20 to support its chairmanship of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).[2] As the current chair, Indonesia envisions ASEAN as an epicentrum of growth. This vision emphasises, heavily, economic recovery as the central agenda for regional cooperation in the future. Nevertheless, as ASEAN chair, Indonesia also faces some regional challenges regarding the conflict in Myanmar and the threat of a great power competition between the US and China. Indonesia will bring these issues to the Summit in an attempt to gain support from other G20 members – especially fellow ASEAN dialogue partners – to discuss possible solutions for the ongoing Myanmar crisis, mediate regional competition between the US and China (both of which are G20 leading members), and highlight its economic goals to bring more investment and boost development in ASEAN countries.

 

Rethinking the UK’s Engagement with Asia

These agenda priorities show a diverging vision to that of the UK in this year’s Summit.[3] For example, Indonesia’s three-fold economic plans for the G20 – digital transformation, sustainable energy transition, and global health architecture – do not neatly fit with the UK’s five-point action plan for G20, which Prime Minister Rishi Sunak outlined at last year’s Summit. Indonesia also diverges with the UK on security issues, particularly with regard to Indonesia’s criticism of the AUKUS cooperation.[4] In addition, it is also unclear how and to what extent the UK shares a commitment to help Indonesia’s development projects, given UK’s current domestic economic priorities, such as ending dependence on Russian energy and mitigating the cost of living crisis.

 

Nevertheless, there are opportunities for the UK to use the G20 to improve bilateral relations with Indonesia, as well as support Indonesia’s chairmanship of ASEAN. The UK formally became ASEAN’s dialogue partner in 2021 and it has improved economic relations with this regional organisation since. In this sense, the UK Government could utilise the G20 Summit as an opportunity to explore their shared interests with Indonesia, particularly in economic cooperation. The UK Government also needs to clarify the UK’s position in the Indo-Pacific region in a way that respects ASEAN, which has been outlined by the UK Government in its Defence Integrated Review.

 

Dr Ahmad Rizky M. Umar is a Sessional Lecturer at the University of Queensland and Griffith University. He is an expert on Indonesia’s Foreign Policy and Asian Regionalism.

 

[1] G7 & G20 Document Database, Annex – G20 Action for Strong and Inclusive Recovery, November 2022, https://g7g20-documents.org/database/document/2022-g20-indonesia-leaders-leaders-annex-annex-g20-action-for-strong-and-inclusive-recovery; The White House, G20 Bali Leaders’ Declaration, November 2022, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/11/16/g20-bali-leaders-declaration/

[2] ASEAN, see: https://asean.org/

[3] The Rt Hon Rishi Sunak, “My five-point economic action plan for the G20”, November 2022. https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/my-five-point-economic-action-plan-for-the-g20

[4] The Rt Hon Rishi Sunak, “My five-point economic action plan for the G20”, November 2022. https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/my-five-point-economic-action-plan-for-the-g20; Prime Minister’s Office, 10 Downing Street and The Rt Hon Boris Johnson MP, Policy paper: Implementation of the Australia – United Kingdom – Unites States Partnership (AUKUS): Fact Sheet, Gov.uk, April 2022, https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/implementation-of-the-australia-united-kingdom-united-states-partnership-aukus-fact-sheet

Footnotes
    Related Articles

    India – Is the G20 host failing to live up domestically to its own global vision?

    Article by Rita Manchanda

    India – Is the G20 host failing to live up domestically to its own global vision?

    Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s projection as the Vishwaguru (global seer) finds the ideal occasion as India gets ready to host the G20 Summit. The ‘Modi moment’ envisages steering the G20 towards a collective inclusive global vision, with the host country having selected the theme “Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam” (One Earth-One Family-One Future) for this year’s Summit.

     

    Meanwhile, within India this motto has been cruelly undermined due to instances of violence that pull at the seams of both ethnic-religious-caste diversity as well as sexual chauvinism. It leaves Indian civil society wondering whether the distinguished participants of the Summit will care that in Manipur, in the country’s Northeast, an ethno-religious civil war has been raging for over three months? The conflict has left behind a wasteland of scorched houses and churches, raped women and brutally killed men, with 60,000 forcibly displaced women and children. All the while, the state has effectively gone into hiding, or worse become complicit. 

     

    Towards the West of India, in the latest incident of anti-Muslim lynching, a Railway Protection guard on the Jaipur-Mumbai Express shot dead his senior and three bearded passengers. The guard carried out his actions while shouting a hate-filled rant against Muslims that he asked compliant passengers to record and share on social media. 

     

    Up North, the country’s once sole Muslim majority state of Jammu and Kashmir, now divided and diminished to a centrally administered territory, is paraded as ‘normal’ to the point that its capital Srinagar is the venue for the G20 Tourism Working Group meeting. Conveniently ignored however are the reports of the 5,000 people arrested to quell any outcry against the Government’s action in August 2019, that watered down Jammu and Kashmir’s special constitutional status. Detained under the draconian UAPA (Unlawful Activities Prevention Act) and PSA (Public Safety Act), getting bail has proved difficult.

     

    Also overlooked is the iron grip on Kashmiri journalists and human rights defenders, many of whom have been arrested, while news platforms have been blocked and others have been stopped from travelling abroad. Central rule of Delhi prevails and an administration run by outsiders from J&K established, new service rules have unleashed a witch hunt against Kashmiri officials. Representative government has been dismantled and its restoration hanging fire for over four years. A massive security cover of an estimated 343,000 forces makes possible ‘normalcy’ but at a cost, attacks on central armed police forces have increased, Kashmiri Pandits and migrant workers continue to be intermittently targeted by home grown militants, and the mountainous districts of Rajouri and Poonch are now on the terrorist radar.

     

    ‘Women led development’ is a G20 sub-theme, and the populist commitment to women’s empowerment is much favoured and projected at home. Awkward then that the international media have run headlines regarding the expose of sexual terrorism in Manipur via a notable ‘viral video’ (which breached the blanket internet ban) as well as the surrounding immunity for mob lawlessness, and the nonchalance of the head of the administration who casually alluded to hundreds of such atrocities taking place. Will the world’s powerful take a pause during the Summit and remember the huge failing of the Indian judicial system that took place a mere year ago? In August 2022, Bilkis Bano, who against all odds fought to get justice for gang rape and the brutal murder of her family members in Gujarat 2002 violence, watched in fear as the 11 convicts sentenced to life imprisonment were released.

     

    Lastly, this year’s G20 Summit is to be an opportunity for promoting inclusive and sustainable growth. Such anomalies as the Indian Government using its brute majority to fast track the Forest Conservation Act Amendment Bill (2023) and remove the checks to rapacious development, are easily overlooked. When the Indian arms and investment market is in the balance, evidence of laws and policies to discriminate and even disenfranchise own citizens are best ignored. Sadly it seems that India is in too ‘sweet’ a place multilaterally to bother with human rights.

     

    Rita Manchanda is an independent Gender-Peace & Conflict Researcher and Human Rights Advocate.

    Footnotes
      Related Articles

      The political economy of sanctions against Russia: Making the sanctions work as they should

      Article by Vladimir Dubrovskiy and Janusz Szyrmer

      September 3, 2023

      Download PDF
      The political economy of sanctions against Russia: Making the sanctions work as they should

      Can sanctions stop the Russian Federation (RF) in its war of choice against Ukraine? The answer to this question requires an inquiry into the indirect but non-trivial link between the economic effect of the sanctions and political decisions about war and peace. To the best of our knowledge, such an inquiry, quite amazingly, has not been done yet. At the same time, considering the longer-term political, economic, and institutional factors, along with the respective expectations of the involved actors, substantially alters the picture and leads to important implications.

       

      Read the authors’ inquiry here.

       

      Vladimir Dubrovskiy is a political economist based in Kyiv (Senior Economist at CASE Ukraine).

      Janusz Szyrmer, a macroeconomist, has served as an advisor to the governments of Ukraine and several other emerging market countries.

       

      Disclaimer: The views expressed in this piece are those of the authors and do not reflect the views of The Foreign Policy Centre.

      Footnotes
        Related Articles

        Views from Central Asia on the UK’s Foreign Policy in the Region

        Article by Foreign Policy Centre and John Smith Trust

        August 11, 2023

        Download PDF
        Views from Central Asia on the UK’s Foreign Policy in the Region

        The UK Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Select Committee is currently undertaking an inquiry into the UK’s engagement in Central Asia. The aim of this inquiry is to “scrutinise the UK’s diplomatic activity and soft power influence in Central Asia” and to “examine priorities and challenges for the Government as it seeks to deepen its engagement on security, energy, trade, environment and investment to pursue mutually beneficial objectives.”

         

        In June 2023, the Foreign Policy Centre (FPC) and the John Smith Trust (JST) co-organised an online roundtable with experts from the region with the aim of providing an opportunity for a timely discussion on these themes, the outcomes and recommendations of which from are summarised below. To note, in March 2023, FPC also submitted written evidence to the inquiry, which is available here.

         

        Summary:

        While Central Asia has often been viewed from abroad through various lenses, it is important to recognise the value of the region in its own right. Global trends and geopolitical developments in recent years, including digitalisation, the Taliban take-over of Afghanistan and, most recently, Russia’s war in Ukraine, have created a new impetus for the Central Asia region to focus on its own resources and strengths.

         

        Each of the five Central Asian countries differs greatly from each other and regional cooperation has been challenging historically. However, the current situation presents a new opportunity, and supporting greater cooperation between different sectors in and across Central Asian countries would enable the UK to contribute to better governance as well as sustainable economic development – and therefore make Central Asian countries more reliable and resilient partners in the long term.

         

        Key policy considerations:

        • Threats to Civil Society:
          • Civil society and media in Central Asia (and globally) are threatened by growing populism and nationalism. NGOs, individuals, journalists and activists who are vocal in challenging their governments’ policies in Central Asian countries are facing increasing restrictions and oppression. NGOs receive little support from the public, which views them with suspicion. This is driven by disinformation and propaganda portraying them as treacherous foreign agents disseminating Western values.
          • Civil society faces a legitimacy crisis, the root cause of which lies in its strong orientation towards donor priorities. Donors’ short funding cycles are a huge challenge for civil society organisations (CSOs) and can undermine their legitimacy in the eyes of the public, as they are forced to respond to donor priorities, not local needs. At the same time, there are few funding opportunities internally, creating a vicious circle for the CSO sector.

         

        • Tackling legitimacy issues in civil society:
          • The most important underlying task is to build legitimacy of the civil society sector – for that, it is necessary to identify shared interests, develop common aims and build trust. Learning how to communicate across different sectors is key to achieving this aim.
          • Pre-colonial, Islamic social norms may provide a solution to the legitimacy issue CSOs face in Central Asia; a system of endowments exists in the region’s Islamic traditions and could become a source of support and cooperation with faith-based organisations. Again, this would require cross-sector communication and understanding of intersection of interests.
          • Cooperation between CSOs and the business sector through social business/enterprise and corporate social responsibility is another potential area for increasing the legitimacy of civil society. Crowdfunding platforms would offer an opportunity for greater financial independence and stability of civil society organisations, but these platforms are currently under-developed in the region.
          • Government funding for civil society organisations (e.g. in Kazakhstan) is in some ways a positive step away from international donor dependence, but also distorts priorities and the independence of CSOs and is very limited.
          • Regional networks (of civil society organisations and beyond) are an important source of motivation and support to each other. Platforms for discussion, sharing and learning across sectors are needed to build bridges and cooperation. Civil society has to learn to speak to business community and for that they may need ‘interpreters’ able to inhabit both sectors.

         

        • Role of the Private Sector:
          • Cooperation efforts between Central Asian countries cannot be left just to governments, as these are dependent on the political leaderships’ continued interest in cooperation and can therefore be unpredictable. People-to-people contact and relationships are needed across all sectors for regional cooperation to be effective.
          • There is an understanding in the business community that cooperation across the region is beneficial, but there is a vast gap between the attitudes and behaviour of the private and public sectors in this area. There is also a lack of understanding that all three sectors – public, private and civil society – could be more effective if they worked together in pursuit of sustainable economic development and they tend to work separately in their own ways.
          • The private sector shares the public’s suspicion of the civil society sector and does not see that their interests overlap with civil society. The private sector has its own mechanism for philanthropic/charitable giving and policy engagement, but does not generally cooperate with CSOs, particularly activists and human rights defenders.

         

        • Opportunities for economic development:
          • Opportunities for economic development across the region exist where there is an intersection of interests, including in areas such as energy, trade, digital economy/e-commerce and culture/creative economy.
          • Central Asian businesses learn from each other, adapting successful policies and practices. Therefore, economic interests will be the driver of regional cooperation and (if done with consideration of sustainability, inclusion, and other good practices) can also become an effective driver for social change, peace and security.

         

        • Climate Change:
          • Governments in Central Asia often lack the political will to act on climate and environmental issues, and such efforts are often part of government public relations strategies. Although all Central Asian governments have implemented laws and policies to protect the environment and combat climate change and are part of international treaties, they have been less successful in integrating these policies into economic policies. Empowering civil society and business to play a greater role here can be an effective strategy in this sphere.

         

        Recommendations:

        1. Funding and support for grassroots initiatives:
          • There needs to be a greater focus on ‘grassroots’ i.e. basic civil education, grassroots movement funding, linking ordinary people to formal institutions and formal NGOS – allowing them to mobilise the public and develop legitimacy in public perception.
          • This requires broader and more flexible funding streams – to allow informal actors coming from the grass roots to come up with new initiatives particularly at the community level. With Embassies in each Central Asian country, the UK could lead cooperation efforts among the international donor community.

         

        1. Vocal and demonstrable support for civil society:
          • There is a need for greater support from the international community (Embassies in particular) to speak up against the new policies and laws that oppress and stifle civil society. There should be conditionality, e.g. to threaten to or actually remove partnerships, aid or trade. This will have greater political and economic weight than official statements.
          • The international community should leverage investment and trade in order to increase standards and commitment to international conventions that all Central Asian states have signed up to. This will require better coordination among the international community.
          • Embassies should be open about their support of civil society and include them in their high level meetings or consult them before high level meetings with national governments take place.

         

        1. Partnership and open collaboration:
          • There appears to be a generational divide amongst the populations in Central Asian countries in terms of support and suspicion of Western influence and interest in their region – probably linked to media consumption patterns. There is a section of society generally supportive of the UK and its increased interest in their countries. However, in order to maintain and increase this support among the population, the UK needs to demonstrate that it is interested in more than self-serving economic and trade partnerships and stands for and invests in the wellbeing of Central Asian societies.
          • The UK should use every opportunity to encourage openness and cross-sector, cross-regional cooperation beyond governments – i.e. among business and civil society as well as the public sector, as such efforts can have a significant impact on tackling governance and development challenges and encouraging good practice.

         

        Footnotes
          Related Articles

          The impact of the war in Ukraine on the BRICS: Six takeaways from an expert discussion

          Article by Dr Aijan Sharshenova

          August 3, 2023

          The impact of the war in Ukraine on the BRICS: Six takeaways from an expert discussion

          The Russian invasion has wreaked havoc upon Ukraine and caused considerable disturbances to both global and regional politics. Debates on the future of multilateralism, multipolarity, the relevance of international organisations, the validity of international law, and the fairness of the current international political system have gained a new level of urgency. While Western governments and societies seem to demonstrate various degrees of support to Ukraine, the rest of the world is split into many factions.

           

          The Foreign Policy Centre and the Centre for Russian, European and Eurasian Studies (CREES) at the University of Birmingham, in cooperation with the OSCE Network of Think Tanks and Academic Institutions recently organised an expert webinar to examine one of the under-appreciated aspects of the Russian war against Ukraine – its impact on the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) individually and as an organisation.

           

          Chaired by Stewart McDonald, SNP MP for Glasgow South and Vice-Chair of the Ukraine APPG (All Party Parliamentary Group), the webinar featured a line-up of international experts: Dr Aijan Sharshenova, Research Fellow at the FPC and Bishkek-based Political Analyst; Dr Wang Yi, Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science and International Studies, University of Birmingham; Dr Anuradha Chenoy, Adjunct Professor, Jindal School of Global Affairs, O.P. Jindal Global University, New Delhi; and Elizabeth Sidiropoulos, Chief Executive of the South African Institute of International Affairs.

           

          The panel explored how the BRICS countries have been impacted, to differing degrees, by the disruption in global supply chains after Russia’s invasion and the inflation of food and energy prices. They discussed how the war is seen in BRICS’ states and societies, and which narratives seem to dominate domestic discourse on the war. The majority of, if not all, the BRICS have abstained from taking definite sides in the conflict and repeatedly called for a resolution of the war through peaceful means. All have long insisted on the need for actual multipolarity in the world – something that has been voiced by Russian President Putin too. While they are not openly supporting Russia, there are some subtle and occasionally not-so-subtle indications that some of the BRICS might sympathise with Ukraine but also do not share Western narratives that blame only Russia for the war.

           

          Based on this very engaging and insightful conversation, six takeaway points can be identified:

           

          • Russia’s war in Ukraine has put the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) in a complicated geopolitical position. Whilst they might commiserate with the fate of Ukraine, they still have to align with or, at least, avoid an open confrontation with Moscow. In addition, the war has rekindled domestic debates on the future of the Russian language, on national self-identification, and the shared past with Russia in some of the CIS countries.
          • The war in Ukraine has further complicated China’s already tense relations with the West. At the same time, mainland China’s potential aggression towards Taiwan has come under the spotlight too, prompting further militarisation and increased military spending in a variety of countries in East and Southeast Asia. Domestically, Chinese public opinion seems to align with the Russian discourses of denazification of Ukraine. However, there is a growing number of people in China who sympathise with Ukraine.
          • India is committed to the principles of multilateral cooperation and multipolarity based on sovereignty of independent states and rules-based order. India tries to uphold neutrality on the matters of the war, but does not share widespread Western narratives. Instead, India believes in Russia’s legitimate security interests in the region against the background of its long-standing opposition to NATO’s expansion prospects. In addition, India has benefitted from a significant increase in trade with Russia, which mostly includes petroleum products.
          • South Africa is committed to multilateralism too. The current debates in the South African domain often portray the war in Ukraine as a proxy war, where Russia is seen to be protecting its legitimate security interests. However, South Africa also prefers to stay at least formally non-aligned even though such a position is complicated by the country’s recent actions and declarations. As a participant of the International Criminal Court (ICC), South Africa has the obligation to execute the arrest warrants issued by the ICC with regards to Russian President Putin. At the same time, South Africa participated in the joint maritime military exercise with China and Russia in February 2023, and the country’s minister of defence paid a visit to Moscow to participate in an international security conference.[1]
          • Brazil, as the geographically most removed BRICS country from Russia, has continued with its regular non-alignment foreign policy. However, Brazil also seems to question the current unipolar political system led by the USA.
          • All BRICS countries, with the exception of Russia, have at least formally called for peaceful resolution of the conflict.

           

          More information on this event – The impact of war in Ukraine on the BRICS – co-organised by the FPC and CREES, can be found here.

           

          [1] BBC News, Why is South Africa’s navy joining exercises with Russia and China?, February 2023, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-64380572; Vicky Stark, South Africa’s Defense Minister in Russia for Security Conference, VOA News, August 2022, https://www.voanews.com/a/south-africa-defense-minister-in-russia-for-security-conference-/6702233.html

          Footnotes
            Related Articles

            Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: The geopolitical significance of the war’s impact on regional supply chains

            Article by Ilya Roubanis (PhD)

            July 27, 2023

            Download PDF
            Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: The geopolitical significance of the war’s impact on regional supply chains

            Summary:

            Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is turning into a war of attrition, as the battlefield has become more static and decisive battles are being fought on the home front. The Russian invasion lost momentum precisely because the Ukrainian army was effective in disrupting the supply chains of the invading force. This destroyed much of Russia’s material advantage, and turned what was considered ‘a walk in the park’ into a real war with socioeconomic consequences. Moreover, the war is now undermining the once unquestionable political monopoly of the Kremlin. As the military confrontation transformed from a war between armies, to a war between societies, the confrontation between economic systems became as significant as defence systems. In sum, the resilience of each country’s power in the battlefront relies on its resilience in the home front.

             

            In theory, this standoff should favour Ukraine given it can count on the support of the most advanced economies in the world. The ability of the Russian economy to control its budget deficit, maintain revenue, and source the technological inputs required to produce ammunition will greatly determine the outcome of the war. That is why a discussion on logistics systems is of geopolitical significance.

             

            This study attempts to provide a comprehensive overview of how the war in Ukraine has affected ‘who gets what, how, and where.’ Examining the geopolitical significance of supply chains, this analysis contributes to an assessment of how continuity and change are negotiated in the context of the Russian war economy. The study argues that Western sanctions have been extremely effective in eroding Russian revenue and making the procurement of key technological inputs far more expensive. However, sanctions have been extremely ineffective in denying Russia access to key dual technologies and disrupting revenue altogether. This failure reflects a deeper systemic challenge in the war between open market economies and state-controlled economies.

             

            Russia’s state-controlled economy has a greater ability to accommodate its political and economic policy against short-term considerations. Beyond Russia’s relations with the post-Soviet space in the Caucasus and Central Asia, Russia has also been able to rally support in China and the Indian subcontinent. Largely, this accommodation entails the substitution of crude military power with effective economic diplomacy. In making this case, this study offers a review of Eurasian logistics networks, offering a glimpse of how all states in the region accommodate their foreign and economic policy to the Ukrainian crisis. Iran, the Caucasus, and Central Asia are ‘having a good war,’ seizing economic opportunities that may have a long-term effect.

             

            The catalytic effect of the war in Ukraine on the relationship between Russia, Turkey, Iran, India, and China is not predictable. The United States and, to a lesser extent, Europe have yet to project the vision of an enduring partnership in the emerging status quo. This is true of logistics but also what this sector reflects, namely ‘value chains,’ networks that contribute to the production of goods and services across the Eurasian landmass. Although the combined economic significance of the West in the global economy is unmatched, the alliance rallying behind Ukraine has been less able to project a common vision for the emerging status quo. Russia maintains the initiative in building partnerships with the economic powers that can tilt the balance, namely Iran, India, Turkey, the UAE, and China. At least in part, the Russian advantage is its ability to rally state-owned companies and oligarchic interests behind broad foreign and security policy objectives.

             

            Read the full piece here.

             

            Disclaimer: The views expressed in this piece are those of the individual author and do not reflect the views of The Foreign Policy Centre.

             

            Ilya Roubanis (PhD, European University Institute) is a British-born International Relations analyst of Greek heritage. He is a fellow of the Observatory on Contemporary Crisis (Madrid) and the International Relations Institute in Athens (IDIS). For over a decade, he has worked in the South Caucasus as a government affairs consultant, risk analyst, and journalist.

            Footnotes
              Related Articles

              How should the West engage with Turkey during Erdoğan’s third Presidential term?

              Article by Emre Caliskan

              May 30, 2023

              How should the West engage with Turkey during Erdoğan’s third Presidential term?

              Recep Tayyip Erdoğan won the second round of Turkey’s presidential elections, extending his 21-year rule for another five years. Despite the two deadly earthquakes that hit Turkey in February and economic instability being felt in the country, Erdoğan’s win in free but not fair elections is still regarded as a victory.[1]

               

              Turkey will remain indispensable for the West

              For the West, working with Erdoğan’s Turkey has been, and will continue to be, a major challenge. Like other authoritarian leaders, Erdoğan has consolidated his power, including through controlling the mainstream media, purging his rivals, and suppressing dissidents.

               

              Yet with its high export capacity, Turkey is an important part of the Western economic system. From preventing an irregular influx of migration into the West, to intelligence sharing in combatting global terrorism, Turkey plays a key role in the Western security system. Indeed, Turkey is a crucial member of NATO. Moreover, despite deep political tensions between Turkey and the West, Turkey is still formally a candidate for European Union (EU) accession.

               

              Much like other emerging economies such as Brazil and South Africa, Turkey is trying to have a transactional relationship with the West in its own unique way. However, Turkey is not fully integrated into the Western-based global order. From Libya to Nagorno-Karabakh, from Syria to Russia, Erdoğan’s Turkey disagrees with the Western priorities. These differences, combined with Erdoğan’s ruthless and shrewd personality, makes it very difficult for the West to engage with Turkey.

               

              Nevertheless, Turkey is indispensable for the West. Whether it is Turkey’s role brokering the grain deal between Russia and Ukraine, or the exchange of prisoners, Turkey has become a linchpin for regional and global security. Should Turkey continue to drift towards Russia and China, it will create a bigger problem for the Western political and security system. Therefore, it remains critical for European countries and the United States to engage with Erdoğan’s Turkey, focusing on priorities rather than differences.

               

              How should Western countries engage with Turkey?

              After the election, according to diplomatic practice, Erdoğan will make his first foreign trip to Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus and Azerbaijan. After that, one of Erdoğan’s first visits is likely to be to the UK. The Turkish President will be seeking support by sending a message of confidence to financial centres, especially London, regarding the economic instability in his country. Many experts pointed out before the elections that the country was headed for a balance of payments crisis and current account deficit.[2]

               

              The UK and the EU should support Turkey’s efforts towards financial stability. Instead of Turkey borrowing from China and Arab countries, Turkey should be offered easier credit opportunities. During the credit negotiations, Western countries should steer Turkey away from Erdoğanomics towards an orthodox rule-based economic governance. This could prevent the financial crisis from deepening.

               

              The customs union agreement between Turkey and the EU, and even the Ankara agreement, Turkey’s association agreement with the EU, should be updated.[3] The UK and Turkey should also update the free trade agreement by adding the service sector, agriculture, investments, and digital economy, which are excluded under the EU’s Customs Union agreement. These steps will contribute to keeping Turkey within the Western economic system.

               

              The West should increase military co-operation with Turkey and prevent Ankara’s further turn towards Moscow and Beijing. In September 2017, Turkey purchased a Russian S400 air defence system. As a response to the purchase, the US imposed sanctions on Turkey under a section of the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) and excluded Turkey from the F-35 programme.[4] The F-16 modernisation deal by the Biden administration would be an important step in attempts to keep Turkey in the Western security bloc.

               

              Turkey is currently in talks with the UK’s Roll Royce for the transfer of engine technology in its first national jet, TF-X.[5] But both sides are tired of protracted negotiations. Taking a concrete step in these negotiations by clarifying issues such as Intellectual Property (IP) rights would prevent Turkey searching for a Russian or Chinese alternative.

               

              The importance of continued military co-operation between Turkey and the EU countries has become more important during the Russian war in Ukraine. Both sides should increase their military cooperation by focusing on their joint interests. Turkey’s own military technologies such as Bayraktar drones should be included in NATO exercises.

               

              Notable watch points – Syria and the PKK

              Kurdish People’s Defense Units (YPG) forces in Syria continue to be a major challenge in the military and political relations between Turkey and the West. While the West sees the YPG as an important partner in the fight against the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), Ankara considers the YPG a branch of the The Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and a terrorist organization. After the elections, Erdoğan is likely to push ending the YPG’s presence in the region by cooperating with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad through Russia. The West should establish a joint mechanism with Turkey to address Ankara’s security concerns, and in return Turkey should not disrupt the fight against ISIS. Turkey and Western countries should calibrate their relations with Syria in a coordinated manner.

               

              The UK could play a mediating role between Turkey and the PKK behind closed doors, as it has done in the past. With local elections in Turkey in a year’s time and Erdoğan’s political alliance with the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), Erdoğan is prevented from progressing peace talks with the Kurds. But behind closed doors, Turkey should be encouraged to take steps in respect to the Kurdish issue. British officials should be mindful of the difference between  the PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan and the Kurdish movement’s political leader Selahettin Demirtaş. Turkey should be urged to release all political prisoners, including Demirtaş in private meetings.

               

              Non-governmental interventions

              Less ambitious, lower-level interventions also do sometimes work to put pressure on the Turkish government. Foreign academics, writers, journalists and artists should engage with Turkey. We need to keep talking about the human rights violations, the growing level of authoritarianism as well as the thousands of dissidents currently in jail. The way to help is by going to Turkey, speaking out and writing about these issues. This approach is better than excluding Turkey and pushing the country further towards Russia and China. Engagement with Turkey is in the best interests of the West and Turkey too.

               

              Emre Caliskan is a FPC Research Fellow.

               

              Disclaimer: The views expressed in this piece are those of the author and do not reflect the views of The Foreign Policy Centre.

               

              Image by President.gov.ua

               

              [1] Fareed Zakaria, Turkey Points to A Global Trend: Free and Unfair Elections, May 2023, https://fareedzakaria.com/columns/2023/5/19/turkey-points-to-a-global-trend-free-and-unfair-elections

              [2]  Yilmaz: Turkey Headed For Balance of Payments Crisis, Bloomberg, May 2023, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2023-05-03/yilmaz-turkey-headed-for-balance-of-payments-crisis-video

              [3] İlke Toygür, A New Way Forward for EU-Turkey Relations, Carnegie Europe, January 2022, https://carnegieeurope.eu/2022/01/26/new-way-forward-for-eu-turkey-relations-pub-86264

              [4] Michael R. Pompeo, Secretary of State, The United States Sanctions Turkey Under CAATSA 231, Press Statement, US Embassy & Consulate in Greece, December 2020, https://gr.usembassy.gov/the-united-states-sanctions-turkey-under-caatsa-231/#:~:text=The%20sanctions%20include%20a%20ban,president%2C%20and%20other%20SSB%20officers.

              [5] Joseph Trevithick, Our First Full Look At Turkey’s New TF-X Stealthy Fighter, The Drive, March 2023, https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/our-first-full-look-at-turkeys-new-tf-x-stealthy-fighter

              Footnotes
                Related Articles

                South Africa’s slow embrace of Russia should cause alarm for the West

                Article by Cameron Scheijde

                May 18, 2023

                South Africa’s slow embrace of Russia should cause alarm for the West

                 

                South Africa’s creeping embrace of Russia leans heavily on the country’s collective perception of history; one that imagines Russia as the saviour that delivered South Africa from Western-sponsored apartheid. Having almost completely abandoned non-alignment and now chairing the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) alliance, Pretoria understands its position is elevated, not undermined, by its proximity to Moscow. The West should be concerned, but claiming moral authority is highly unlikely to win over South Africa’s political classes.

                 

                The shadows of history, real or imagined, loom large over South Africa’s Russian dilemma. Old alliances, grudges and obligations seem now to be making themselves felt, and Putin’s potential visit to the BRICS summit in August is presenting President Ramaphosa with an ever growing problem. He must choose whether to continue down the road both he, and the ruling African National Congress (ANC), have determinedly followed in embracing Russian narratives, thereby risking South Africa’s international reputation; or, to firmly pull the handbrake on Moscow’s creeping influence and risk one of its most prominent diplomatic positions in the BRICS alliance. The decision Ramaphosa makes will be pivotal for the future direction of South African foreign policy and other nations across the continent will be keeping a close eye on Pretoria.

                 

                The evolution of South Africa’s position to one of relative warmth towards Moscow began with an initial condemnation of the Russian invasion of Ukraine by South Africa’s Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor. In February 2022, Pandor’s department of International Relations and Cooperation (DIRCO) expressed its ‘dismay’ at the situation, using a statement – notably since scrubbed from government websites – to urge Russia to respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity and withdraw.[1] Subsequent statements from DIRCO have emphasised South Africa’s independence and non-alignment, in keeping with its membership of the Non-Alignment Movement, and highlighting what it sees as Western hypocrisy on issues relating to territorial integrity. A solution, said Pandor, ‘will not be found in isolating one party or bringing it to its knees’.[2]

                 

                Non-alignment no more?

                Over the past year of ongoing violence in Ukraine, South Africa’s evocation of history to justify its proximity to Moscow has however developed pace, drawing accusations of historical blindness, moral failing and hypocrisy.

                 

                Internationally, South Africa has drawn international condemnation for allowing joint Russian and Chinese naval exercises and recently hosting Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Distancing herself yet more from those words on the first day of the invasion, Foreign Minister Pandor has recently declared Russia an ‘old, historical friend’, of whom ‘we cannot become sudden enemies [with] on the demand of others’.[3]

                 

                Perhaps this position is less surprising, when given the previously cosy relationship some ANC members appeared to enjoy with Russian representatives in South Africa. Hours prior to Russia’s invasion, Defence Minister Thandi Modise had been pictured at the Russian Ambassador’s Pretoria residence celebrating ‘Defender of the Fatherland Day’.[4] While attending another such gathering, ANC provincial MP Cameron Dugmore recorded a video referring to the event as a celebration of the ‘relationship that started between the ANC and the former Soviet Union, and how that relationship has continued’, and calling for solutions that create a ‘lasting peace’; all while Russia’s imperial eagle looked down on him from a banner in the background.[5]

                 

                Criticism of ANC’s apparent continued rapprochement with Russia over the past year has been fierce within South Africa, with the leader of the opposition and the political party Democratic Alliance (DA), John Steenhuisen, accusing the ANC of having ‘picked the wrong side of history’, but it has been fiercer still in the Western press. David Pilling in the Financial Times said South Africa’s position “smacks not of respect for human rights or non-alignment, but rather for might is right.” Brian Pottinger, a prominent South African journalist, wrote in Unherd that the ANC had embraced an ideology of “nostalgia, self-interest and greed”.[6]

                 

                A question of Western moral posturing?

                Nostalgia it seems does rule the day, and Western governments should be wary of moral posturing if they hope to get South Africa back on side. Congolese politician Jérémy Lissouba makes the astute argument that demands from the West for countries to unambiguously pick a side risk misunderstanding the complexity of their positions.[7] For South Africa’s ruling class, real or imagined ties between the former Soviet Union and the anti-apartheid movement remain strong, while painful memories of US and UK support for the apartheid regime remain very much in living memory.

                 

                This is not a political class inheriting a generational burden, it is one that actively fought for freedom and bears the scars of fascist violence. Further, as ANC leaders often comment, perceived Western moral grandstanding invokes little sympathy. Minister Pandor argued in an event last September that Western inaction in Palestine undermines its support for Ukraine, “you can’t say because Ukraine has been invaded that suddenly sovereignty is very important, because [according to the US] it was never important for Palestine”.[8] As the terms of Western assistance for Africa have always been so unequal, argues Lissouba, Western affirmations of the UN Charter and Universal Declaration for Human Rights have often been viewed with suspicion as ‘pretences to maintain hegemony in the face of existential threats’.[9]

                 

                A spotlight on South Africa in the BRICS

                Renewed attention will be directed at South Africa if Putin attends August’s BRICS conference. As a full member of the International Criminal Court (ICC) it has the legal obligation to carry out Putin’s arrest. Having wavered before, by failing to arrest Sudanese President al-Bashir in 2015, South Africa would truly damage its international standing by shirking its obligations again – and Ramaphosa’s response has been far from confident. Mirroring Pandor’s flip-flop at the start of the invasion, the President initially stated that the ANC wanted to withdraw from the ICC, followed by a statement hours later that South Africa will remain a member and the comment was made ‘in error’.[10] In recent weeks it has become clear that Ramaphosa wishes to avoid confrontation – deciding to shift to hosting the summit online, despite Putin’s previous acceptance of an in-person invite.[11]

                 

                While eyebrows continue to be raised, both within and outside of South Africa, about the country’s continued relationship with the Kremlin, its role as a BRICS member has elevated South Africa’s diplomatic position. South Africa’s membership is a major diplomatic win; and, despite being a far smaller country, both in economy and population, than any other member, its economic ties are strengthening. Between 2017 and 2021, trade with other BRICS members went from R407bn ($22bn) to R702bn ($38bn), and in 2018 65% of all arrivals into South Africa were tourists from other BRICS countries. [12]

                 

                What next?

                Western countries should be wary of a continued drift that may see South Africa and other regional powers put further distance between themselves and the West. Tackling this, however, cannot rely on claims of moral duty or international obligations based on the will of Western superpowers.

                 

                Taking a harder approach may go some way – threatening South Africa’s position in the US’s Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) has brought opposition and government MPs to Washington. However, ‘big stick’ approaches, such as this and the US’s ‘Countering Malign Russian Activities in Africa’ bill, will only stoke allegations of American imperialism and hypocrisy. While the US signalled their intention to engage with the recent US-Africa Summit, lumping an entire continent together furthered suspicion that African leaders are not receiving due respect or understanding. Meanwhile, the UK’s international development fund is spending twice as much within its own borders as it is across the entire continents of Africa and Asia, and further isolation would damage the UK and EU’s chance to follow AGOA’s example and cement meaningful engagement with African countries.[13]

                 

                Moreover, the openings left by the US, UK and EU’s insistence on continued uni-polarity has allowed Russia to pursue its commitments in Africa and strengthen its economic ties, which are approached without interference in domestic affairs or tying aid to good governance.[14] To counteract this, the West does not have to abandon its commitment to democracy but must rather engage equally and respectfully. Many across the entire continent have not forgotten being bussed to Queen Elizabeth II’s funeral, called ‘shithole countries’ by a sitting US president, or witnessing hypocrisy between words and actions on democracy and human rights. In short, something more has to be brought to the table.

                 

                Russia’s authoritarianism is a stark contrast to South Africa’s non-racial, rights-based constitution and democracy, so historical support aside they are extremely uncomfortable bedfellows. The US, UK and the European Union should highlight this, bringing South Africa back into the fold by fostering a respectful relationship, not as a former colony, nor as a weapon in a new cold war, but as a democratic nation-state.[15] In turn, this may highlight that Russia’s respect goes only as far as its own economic and strategic interests, creating an opportunity to slow its insidious influence.

                 

                Cameron Scheijde is a political communications professional who grew up in Johannesburg, with specialist knowledge of African political affairs. He holds Master’s degrees in African Studies and Political Theory from the University of Oxford, and has formerly worked as an Africa expert for the Institute for Historical Justice and Reconciliation and as a Researcher for Justice Albie Sachs at the South African Constitutional Court. He can be followed on Twitter @camscheijde.

                 

                Disclaimer: The view expressed in this piece are those of the authors and do not reflect the views of The Foreign Policy Centre.

                 

                Image by www.kremlin.ru.

                 

                [1] Peter Fabricius, Pretoria scrambles to repair relations with Russia after calling for invasion forces to leave Ukraine, Daily Maverick, February 2022 https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2022-02-27-pretoria-scrambles-to-repair-relations-with-russia-after-calling-for-invasion-force-to-leave-ukraine/

                [2] Naledi Pandor, Minister Naledi Pandor on Russia / Ukraine Conflict, South African Government, April 2022 https://www.gov.za/speeches/minister-naledi-pandor-russia-ukraine-conflict-8-apr-2022-0000

                [3] Eyewitness News, 30 March 2023, https://ewn.co.za/0001/01/01/minister-pandor-says-russia-an-old-historical-friend

                [4] Tom Eaton, The flip flopping ANC has a lot to be grateful to Russia for, TimesLive, March 2022 https://select.timeslive.co.za/ideas/2022-02-28-the-flip-flopping-anc-has-a-lot-to-be-grateful-to-russia-for/

                [5] Eusebius McKaiser, Twitter, February 2022 https://twitter.com/Eusebius/status/1498394725572829188

                [6] John Steenhuisen, Address by DA leader, Polity, https://www.polity.org.za/article/da-john-steenhuisen-address-by-da-leader-during-an-urgent-debate-on-the-impact-of-the-russian-federations-invasion-of-ukraine-on-the-south-african-economy-parliament-15032022-2022-03-15, David Pilling, South Africa’s Russia stance shows it has lost the moral high ground, Financial Times, February 2023 https://www.ft.com/content/02085c6c-7ae5-4dd0-817d-7ce3f49ea303

                [7] Brian Pottinger, Why South Africa is siding with Russia, Unherd, November 2022 https://unherd.com/2022/11/why-south-africa-is-siding-with-russia/

                [8] ​​ Jérémy Lissouba, Relations with Africa, Asia are on the brink of collapse – to Russia’s benefit, Politico, March 2023, https://www.politico.eu/article/relations-africa-asia-brink-collapse-russia-benefit/

                [9] ​​Ibid

                [10] Julian Borger, South Africa’s President and Party Sow Confusion over Leaving ICC, The Guardian, April 2023 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/25/south-africas-president-and-party-sow-confusion-over-leaving-icc

                [11] Kuben Chetty, Putin has confirmed he will attend BRICS summit in Durban says SA’s BRICS sherpa, IOL, April 2023, https://www.iol.co.za/mercury/news/putin-has-confirmed-he-will-attend-brics-summit-in-durban-says-sas-brics-sherpa-4600c86d-ebec-4477-8098-6d0ddb6c20b8; Amanda Khoza, SA’s quiet push for virtual Putin visit to solve ICC arrest warrant dilemma, Sunday Times, 30 April 2023 https://www.timeslive.co.za/sunday-times/news/politics/2023-04-30-sas-quiet-push-for-virtual-putin-visit-to-solve-icc-arrest-warrant-dilemma/

                [12]  Cyril Ramaphosa, ‘BRICS partnership has great value for South Africa’, BRICS Summit 2022, June 2022, http://brics2022.mfa.gov.cn/eng/tpzx/202206/t20220621_10707340.html

                [13]  William Worley, Nearly double UK aid spent on refugees at home than on Asia and Africa, Devex, April 2023 https://www.devex.com/news/nearly-double-uk-aid-spent-on-refugees-at-home-than-on-asia-and-africa-105288

                [14] SAIIA, ‘Moscow’s Continent: The Principles of Russia’s Africa Policy Engagement’, Occassional Paper 341, March 2023, https://saiia.org.za/research/moscows-continent-the-principles-of-russias-africa-policy-engagement/

                [15] NPR, ‘Russia and the West are vying for influence in Africa and Ukraine is a big reason why’, Associated Press, July 2022, https://www.npr.org/2022/07/28/1114187972/russia-and-the-west-are-vying-for-influence-in-africa-and-ukraine-is-a-big-reaso

                Topics
                Footnotes
                  Related Articles

                  An (In)delicate Dance of Diplomacy? The South Caucasus Response to the Ukraine Conflict

                  Article by Naira Sahakyan

                  May 12, 2023

                  An (In)delicate Dance of Diplomacy? The South Caucasus Response to the Ukraine Conflict

                  Six leaders of former Soviet states attended the 9 May Parade on Red Square this week to commemorate the end of World War II (WWII) in Europe in 1945.[1] Among them was the leader of Armenia, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. The two other countries of the South Caucasus – Georgia and Azerbaijan – did not participate.

                   

                  While the Russian invasion of Ukraine has elicited a range of reactions from countries around the world, the leaders of Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia have found themselves balancing between their aspirations for independent diplomacy and Russia’s enduring influence in their region. These countries view the war in Ukraine through the lens of their own conflicts – Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh). The extent of their political dependence on Moscow varies, meaning that their responses to the war have differed as well.

                   

                  As a country that has had its own conflict with Russia over the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, some might have expected that Georgia’s response would have been more aligned with that of Western countries. However, the leadership in the capital Tbilisi looked at the events through the prism of the challenges presented before it. The Georgian side, despite expressing its opposition to Russia’s actions, was extremely critical of the Ukrainian leadership, which at one point claimed that in order to lighten their own burden in Kyiv, a  ‘Second Frontline’ should be opened in Georgia.[2]

                   

                  Azerbaijan, meanwhile, tries to keep a balance between Russia and the West. In many international fora, Azerbaijan has refrained from participating in any decisions against Russia. For example, Azerbaijan opted out of the vote to terminate Russia’s membership in the Council of Europe and similarly from the vote on the United Nations General Assembly’s resolution to suspend Russia from the Human Rights Council.[3] However, having signed energy deals with both Russia (to import Russian gas to Azerbaijan) and the European Union (to double the flow of gas to Europe in five years), Azerbaijan is in a good position to profit by maintaining this balancing act[4]. Most notably, those in the capital Baku look to Russia in relation to its significant role in the ongoing Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Thus, while demonstrably showing support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity (which is the main line of Azerbaijan’s foreign policy regarding the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict), President Aliyev still maintains relatively friendly relations with Russia, including keeping silent when the Azerbaijani honorary consulate in Kharkiv was destroyed by Russian airstrikes in March 2022.

                   

                  By contrast, Armenia’s position is more difficult. In light of its devastating defeat to Azerbaijan in the second Karabakh War in 2020, Armenia’s response to the war in Ukraine has been more cautious.  The leader of Armenia, Prime Minister Pashinyan, even avoided calling the Russian invasion a war, instead referring to it from the outset as “the events in Ukraine”.[5] Yet he harshly reacted to the disinformation that Armenia had sent Su-30SM multifunctional jets to Russia, demonstrating a desire to make it clear that Armenia is not helping Russia in this war.[6] Nevertheless, Armenia’s relations with Russia are at a historical low, due to the country’s disappointment with Moscow’s actions during the 2020 Karabakh War and inaction during the attack by Azerbaijan on the territory of Armenia proper in 2022, when Russia and other members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) stayed silent.[7]

                   

                  The situation is antagonised further by Azerbaijan’s continued blockade of the Lachin corridor, the only road connecting Armenians of Artsakh to the rest of the world.[8] The tension between Armenia and Russia showed itself once again when Azerbaijan, in a move denounced by Yerevan as a violation of the November 9 Trilateral statement, installed a checkpoint on the Hakari Bridge at the entrance to the Lachin corridor.[9] Amidst the apparent indifference or inaction from the Russian peacekeepers deployed to the region, the United States and France, two key countries involved in mediating the negotiations, have voiced their concerns over Azerbaijan’s establishment of the checkpoint on the Lachin corridor, considering that a step that “undermines the ongoing efforts to build confidence in the peace process“.[10] A statement by Armenia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs in April 2023 called “on the Russian Federation to finally fulfil the obligation under provision 6 of the Trilateral statement by eliminating the illegal blockade of the Lachin corridor”.[11] Indeed, Russia seemingly does not wish to confront Azerbaijan, while President Aliyev looks to gain an advantage from Russia’s war, namely the ability to apply pressure on Armenia.

                   

                  This situation, and Armenia’s recent shift towards the West, might have a knock-on impact on the country’s stance on the war in Ukraine. However, while the political centre of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has moved to the West (the next round of peace talks are to be held in Brussels), Armenia’s dependence on Moscow remains strong. [12]  This could explain Pashinyan’s decision to visit Moscow on May 9. Nevertheless, this may not be the only reason.

                   

                  Since 9th May 1992, when Armenian forces entered the town of Shushi (Shusha for Azerbaijanis) in the region of Nagorno-Karabakh, May 9 has embodied not only the 1945 victory for Armenians. Every year Armenia’s leaders have congratulated the nation on the 1992 historic victory as well; and prior to the country’s defeat in the 2020 war, Pashinyan was no exception.[13] However, this year Pashinyan noted in his address “In recent years, we celebrate May 9 with bitterness and anxiety. This is primarily related with the severe consequences of the 44-day war of 2020, with the loss of Shushi during the war, with the aggressive policy unfolding around Nagorno-Karabakh and the Republic of Armenia”.[14]

                   

                  In this context, Pashinyan’s visit to Moscow could be seen as a helpful deviation from the tradition of visiting the Yerablur Military Pantheon, where many of those who died fighting for Nagorno-Karabakh rest. With previous visits resulting in uncomfortable political scandals, avoiding this scenario fits with the adopted policy of Pashinyan’s government to achieve peace at any cost and to prevent angering Azerbaijan, and its patron Turkey, in any way. This aside, Moscow also retains the means by which to pressure Pashinyan to participate in the events in Red Square, in order to show that Putin and Moscow still have friends and are not isolated from the world.[15] Potential coercion and blackmail could be effective, especially given the Azerbaijani attacks on Armenia proper, the Azerbaijani blockade of the Lachin corridor and the Russian military presence in Armenia.[16]

                   

                  In contrast to Pashinyan, and in a move mostly likely designed to demonstrate that the city is under Azerbaijani control, the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev and First Lady Mehriban Aliyeva spent 9th May in Shushi*.[17] Interestingly, the President’s website made no mention of a visit to a memorial dedicated to the victory of May 9, 1945. The leader of Georgia Irakli Garibashvili meanwhile opted for a third way.[18] He laid a bouquet of flowers at the monument of Meliton Kantaria, a Georgian sergeant in the Soviet Army, and spoke with veterans of WWII. The whole emphasis of the event was Georgians’ participation in WWII, with the May 9 victory seen as a national rather than Soviet celebration.

                   

                  The varied responses by the countries of the South Caucasus to the war in Ukraine, and their level of engagement with Moscow, clearly reflect their complex relationships with Russia as well as the conflicts within their own region. Understanding these can provide important insights into the political dynamics in the region as well as the broader geopolitical landscape. Yet it is difficult to predict with certainty how this might evolve in the near future. While the complex historical, geopolitical, and security considerations will remain unchanged, some shifts towards the West have already been observed. The ultimate outcome of the war in Ukraine will inevitably have an impact, but the current ties and dependencies on Russia, as well as the unresolved conflicts in the region, will continue to strongly shape each country’s position in the near future.

                   

                   

                  Naira Sahakyan is a Senior Researcher at the Armenian Genocide Museum-Institute and is a Visiting Scholar at the University of Cambridge and part of a Turkish-Armenian Relations research project hosted by Cambridge Interfaith Programme and funded by the Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation. She is also lecturing at the American University of Armenia and Yerevan State University. Follow her on Twitter @NSahakyan

                   

                  *Editorial note: As referenced earlier in the article, different place names are used – Shushi for Armenians and Shusha for Azerbaijanis.

                   

                  Disclaimer: The views expressed in this piece are those of the authors and do not reflect the views of The Foreign Policy Centre nor of the Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation.

                   

                   

                  [1] RadioFreeEurope, Russia Holds Victory Day Celebrations Amid Fresh Strikes On Ukraine, May 2023, https://www.rferl.org/a/kyrgyz-president-russia-visit-japarov-putin-victory-day/32400550.html

                  [2] Prime Minister of Georgia Official Website, Keynote Speech Delivered during Interpellation at the Plenary Session of the Parliament of Georgia, March 2023, https://garibashvili.ge/en/n/all/gamosvla_parlamentshi_interpelatsiis_formatshi

                  [3] United Nations UN News, UN Affairs Team, UN General Assembly votes to suspend Russia from the Human Rights Council, April 2022, https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/04/1115782

                  [4] David O’Byrne, Azerbaijan’s Russian Gas Deal Raises Uncomfortable Questions for European, Eurasianet, November 2022, https://eurasianet.org/azerbaijans-russian-gas-deal-raises-uncomfortable-questions-for-europe; O’Byrne, Azerbaijan and EU Agree to Strategic Energy Partnership, Eurasianet, July 2022, https://eurasianet.org/azerbaijan-and-eu-agree-to-strategic-energy-partnership

                  [5] The Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia Official Website, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s speech at the National Assembly during the discussion of the performance report of the Government Action Plan for 2021, April 2022, https://www.primeminister.am/en/statements-and-messages/item/2022/04/13/Nikol-Pashinyan-Speech/

                  [6] The Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia Official Website, It is necessary to launch an international mechanism for the monitoring of the border situation, Nikol Pashinyan, March 2022, https://www.primeminister.am/en/statements-and-messages/item/2022/03/31/Cabinet-meeting-Speech/

                  [7] The Collective Security Treaty Organization is an intergovernmental military alliance in Eurasia consisting of six post-Soviet states: Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan. See – https://en.odkb-csto.org/

                  [8] Amnesty International, Azerbaijan: Blockade of Lachin corridor putting thousands of lives in peril must be immediately lifted, February 2023, https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2023/02/azerbaijan-blockade-of-lachin-corridor-putting-thousands-of-lives-in-peril-must-be-immediately-lifted/

                  [9] Commonspace.EU, Document: Full text of the agreement between the leaders of Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, November 2022, https://www.commonspace.eu/news/document-full-text-agreement-between-leaders-russia-armenia-and-azerbaijan

                  [10]  The Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs of France, Azerbaijan – Lachin corridor, April 2023, https://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en/country-files/azerbaijan/news/article/azerbaijan-lachin-corridor-23-april-2023; US Department of State Website, Press Release, Actions on the Lachin Corridor, April 2023, https://www.state.gov/actions-on-the-lachin-corridor/

                  [11] Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Armenia, Press Release, The Statement of MFA of Armenia regarding the installation of an illegal checkpoint by Azerbaijan in the Lachin corridor, April 2023. https://www.mfa.am/en/interviews-articles-and-comments/2023/04/23/statement_lachincorridor/11980

                  [12] Henry Foy, Armenia and Azerbaijan to resume peace talks in Brussels, FT, May 2023, https://www.ft.com/content/f42c16b6-1c36-4d14-ab51-9d85e1da4d49?fbclid=IwAR3JofpNjlSOgyFv6sWtjwqZlXhA6fhEn5Ip01GvsJ-QNI08OOZ2ipTbysw

                  [13] The Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia Official Website, Congratulatory Message by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan on Victory and Peace Day, May 2019, https://www.primeminister.am/en/statements-and-messages/item/2019/05/09/Nikol-Pashinyan-Congratulations-May-9/

                  [14] The Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia Official Website, Congratulatory Message by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan on Victory and Peace Day, May 2019, https://www.primeminister.am/en/statements-and-messages/item/2019/05/09/Nikol-Pashinyan-Congratulations-May-9/

                  [15] Hetq, Yerevan Police Remove Protesters at Yerevan’s Yerablur Pantheon, Sep 2022, https://hetq.am/en/article/148531

                  [16] Natalia Konarzewska, What’s behind the new round of clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan, New Eastern Europe, September 2022, https://neweasterneurope.eu/2022/09/20/armenia-azerbaijan-pelosi-russia-ukraine/; Amnesty International. Azerbaijan: Blockade of Lachin corridor putting thousands of lives in peril must be immediately lifted, February, 2023, https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2023/02/azerbaijan-blockade-of-lachin-corridor-putting-thousands-of-lives-in-peril-must-be-immediately-lifted/

                  [17]  President of the Republic of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev Official Website, Ilham Aliyev and First Lady Mehriban Aliyeva examined works to be carried out in front of administrative building of Special Representative Office in Shusha, May 2023, https://president.az/en/articles/view/5966

                  [18] Government of Georgia Official Website, Irakli Garibashvili: I wish to first of all congratulate our heroic veterans on this day, marking the defeat of this huge evil – fascism – and our victory over it, May 2022, https://www.gov.ge/en/news/357782?page=&year=

                  Topics
                  Footnotes
                    Related Articles

                    Turkey likely to face political instability post elections

                    Article by Emre Caliskan

                    May 10, 2023

                    Turkey likely to face political instability post elections

                    Turkey’s strong man Recep Tayyip Erdoğan faces the biggest elections challenge for the first time over his two-decade rule. Whether Erdoğan wins or loses, Turkey is likely to face political instability after the presidential and parliamentary elections that will be held on May 14.

                     

                    As it currently stands, it is difficult to predict the outcome of the elections, and there are conflicting polls. According to some observers including Economist Intelligence Unit, Erdoğan will either win the election by a slim margin or contest the results.[1] Based on the statements from senior leaders in Erdoğan’s ruling party (Justice and Development Party, AKP), it is very likely that Erdoğan will challenge the results if he loses the elections. The narrative for this has already begun. Turkey’s Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu has claimed that the West, particularly the US, is using the tightly contested elections to stage a political coup. In response to AKP supporters chanting, “We will shoot at your command, we will die at your command,” at a campaign rally in Kayseri, the National Defence Minister Hulusi Akar replied, “Wait, the time will come for that too.”[2]

                     

                    If Erdoğan wins

                    Even if Erdoğan wins the presidential elections, the AKP and its coalition, is still likely to lose its parliamentary majority. This is the first time Turkey will face such a scenario since the new presidential system came into force in June 2018. In the likelihood of being unable to pass new legislation through the Parliament, it is expected that Erdoğan will rule the country using executive orders and regulations. The opposition would likely challenge Erdoğan’s decisions in the Constitutional Court, increasing the prospects of political instability in the country.

                     

                    Another risk factor for Erdoğan’s rule is his health. There have been serious concerns about his well-being for a while, with Erdoğan having had surgery on his lower intestine in 2011. The opposition also claims that Erdoğan suffers from epilepsy. The President has frequently gone on record to deny reports about his health. When visiting a cancer patient in 2012, Erdoğan signalled that he previously suffered from colon cancer.[3] In late April 2023, Erdoğan cancelled three days of in person campaigning, announcing he had a “serious stomach flu” after he fell ill during a live televised interview.[4] Some experts in Ankara believe that Erdoğan will not be able to finish his second presidential term in office due to his current state of health.[5]

                     

                    The biggest risk for Erdoğan’s rule is the present economic situation in Turkey. Since the end of 2021, Erdoğan’s unorthodox economic policies have kept interest rates low by allowing the depreciation of the Turkish lira against the dollar, aiming to boost exports and support domestic consumption. The Erdoğan-controlled central bank is trying to prevent the further depreciation of the Turkish lira ahead of the elections.[6] This has come at a cost. The Turkish central bank’s net international reserves reduced by 5.4 billion USD in the week of April 14-21, decreasing to 8.3 billion USD. The net reserve excluding swaps was “minus” (-) 49.5 billion USD.[7]

                     

                    If Erdoğan is re-elected and continues his unorthodox economic policies, the financial crisis in Turkey is likely to deepen, especially following the devastating impact of the February 2023 earthquakes. According to JPMorgan, Turkey’s lira (TL) is likely to drop sharply and could near 30 TL to the dollar after the elections (today, one USD dollar is trading at around 19.5 TL).[8]

                     

                    Turkey’s worsening economic crisis is likely to bring capital controls. The other possibility is that it triggers a political crisis, instigating a challenge to Erdogan’s political leadership during his future second term in the presidential system.

                     

                    If the opposition wins

                    If the opposition wins the presidential elections, Erdoğan’s repressive regime will collapse, and more orthodox economic policies are very likely to be implemented. Separation of powers, rule of law and judicial independence as well as fundamental rights and freedoms are likely to be restored in the country. Nevertheless, Turkey is very likely to face a political crisis in the post-Erdoğan era.

                     

                    What unites the opposition is anti-Erdoğanism. The six-party alliance includes the social democratic main opposition Republican’s People’s Party (CHP), the nationalist Good (IYI) party, the Future (Gelecek) Party of Ahmet Davutoğlu, who was a prime minister during Erdoğan’s presidency, the Democracy and Progress Party (DEVA) party of Ali Babacan, Erdoğan’s former economy minister, and the Felicity Party, the last party of the National Outlook Movement, in which Erdoğan was a member when he was a mayor of Istanbul in between 1994 and 1998. The Kurdish movement’s party, the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), is not in the alliance but is backing the opposition candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu against Erdoğan.

                     

                    During Erdoğan’s rule, independent institutions in Turkey have been weakened, if not completely disappeared and politicised. The presidential system depends entirely on Erdoğan and his charisma. The Turkish Parliament is almost irrelevant. Neither Erdoğan’s party nor senior party members have power in the Turkish parliamentary political system. In the post Erdoğan period, there is a need to build a new Turkey with independent institutions, especially within the bureaucracy and the judiciary. The members of the anti-Erdoğan opposition, which have very little in common with each other, are very likely to face significant challenges in establishing a new system after Erdoğan’s rule in Turkey. Indeed, Turkey is very likely to face political instability as was the case in the periods after previous strong leaders of Turkey, such as Adnan Menderes and Turgut Özal.

                     

                    According to Turkish media reports, CHP is likely to determine the economic policies after the elections. However, Bilge Yilmaz from IYI Party, a finance professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, is reported to be due to take up the post of economy minister.[9] IYI Party and CHP advocate increasing public spending.[10] Meanwhile, Ali Babacan is expected to be the vice president in charge of the Turkish economy.[11] His party publicly opposes further public spending and calls for fiscal discipline.[12]

                     

                    In the event of a disagreement among coalition partners, for instance in relation economic policymaking, the heads of the six parties, who will become the president and deputy presidents of the new system, are expected to come together to find solutions to political problems.

                     

                    The opposition will have to shoulder the burden of Erdoğan’s collapsed economy. Kılıçdaroğlu argues that a total of 418 billion USD has been transferred since 2002 to private companies under the AKP governments through government contracts and other deals. He claims five conglomerates have benefited from multibillion-dollar contracts from infrastructure projects to energy, pledging to nationalise the assets of the ‘gang of five’.

                     

                    Based on statements by the opposition parties, in a post-Erdoğan system many assets and services will be nationalised. Government contracts are likely to be cancelled or expropriated. If Kılıçdaroğlu goes after the 418 billion USD state contracts, this is very likely to trigger a serious economic crisis in Turkey as well as political instability.

                     

                    Even if economic issues were relatively easy to solve in the six-party alliance system, other challenges for Turkey will remain, including the Syrian refuges and the Kurdish issue. Will the opposition be able to send Syrian refuges back home as promised? If the nationalist IYI Party controls the Interior Ministry as reports suggest, will the opposition block continue Erdoğan’s oppressive anti-Kurdish policies, or will they reduce the pressure on the Kurdish movement by releasing their senior party members from prison, including its former chair Selahattin Demirtaş?

                     

                    Once in power, the opposition aims to improve relations with the European Union (EU) and the United States. Nevertheless, differences between Turkey and the West on Cyprus, Greece and even Libya would continue. Turkey is likely to continue its balancing relations with Russia and China. The difference over the opposition parties in Syria, especially the Kurdish presence in the region, is very like to remain a divisive issue between Turkey and the West. Kılıçdaroğlu wants to have a new refugee deal with EU. To achieve that, Turkey would loosen controls on its borders, leading to an influx of refugees into the EU countries as Erdoğan has done in the past.

                     

                    The May 14 general and presidential elections may bring about an end to the Erdoğan’s rule in Turkey. But this is unlikely to be the end of Turkey’s economic and political instability.

                     

                    Emre Caliskan is a FPC Research Fellow.

                     

                    Disclaimer: The views expressed in this piece are those of the author and do not reflect the views of The Foreign Policy Centre.

                     

                    [1] Economist Intelligence Unit, Turkey’s critical elections: What an opposition win would mean for the country, April 2023, https://www.eiu.com/n/campaigns/turkey-elections-2023/

                    [2] Cumhuriyet, Hulusi Akar’dan ‘Vur de vuralım, öl de ölelim’ sloganlarına yanıt: Onun da zamanı gelecek, April 2023, https://www.cumhuriyet.com.tr/siyaset/hulusi-akardan-vur-de-vuralim-ol-de-olelim-sloganlarina-yanit-onun-da-zamani-gelecek-2072080

                    [3] Haberturk, “Yani aynı hastadaşız”, May 2012, https://www.haberturk.com/video/haber/izle/yani-ayni-hastadasiz/61039

                    [4] AP News, Turkey’s Erdogan cancels 3rd day of election appearances, April 2023, https://apnews.com/article/turkey-erdogan-election-health-356d5d31fee90d95e5eb2e097096da3f

                    [5] Interview with a senior journalist based in Ankara 4, April 2023; and Interview with a deputy chair of a Turkish opposition party, 4 April 2023.

                    [6] Beril Akman, Turkey Holds Off from Rate Cut to Spare Lira Before Election, Bloomberg, April 2023, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-27/turkey-holds-off-from-rate-cut-to-spare-lira-before-elections

                    [7] Naki Bakir, Swap hariç net rezerv eksi (-) 49,5 milyar dolar, Dünya, May 2023, https://www.dunya.com/kose-yazisi/swap-haric-net-rezerv-eksi-495-milyar-dolar/692602

                    [8] Marc Jones, JPMorgan sees Turkey lira diving towards 30 per dollar after elections, Reuters, April 2023, https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/jpmorgan-sees-turkey-lira-diving-towards-30-per-dollar-after-elections-2023-04-14/#:~:text=LONDON%2C%20April%2014%20(Reuters),to%20its%20unorthodox%20economic%20policies

                    [9] Kerim Karakaya, Beril Akman and Onur Ant, A Wharton Professor Pledges Revolution in Turkish Economy After Elections, Bloomberg, March 2023, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-22/a-wharton-professor-pledges-revolution-in-turkish-economy-after-elections?in_source=embedded-checkout-banner

                    [10] Haberturk, Cumhurbaşkanı adayı Kılıçdaroğlu: En düşük memur maaşı 21 bin 265 lira olacak, May 2023, https://www.haberturk.com/cumhurbaskani-adayi-kilicdaroglu-en-dusuk-memur-maasi-21-bin-265-lira-olacak-3589002; CHP Genel Başkanı Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, Değirmenköy Buğday ve Mazot Desteği Dağıtım Törenine Katıldı, CHP Webpage, 16 September 2022, https://chp.org.tr/haberler/chp-genel-baskani-kemal-kilicdaroglu-degirmenkoy-bugday-ve-mazot-destegi-dagitim-torenine-katildi (last accessed 7 May 2023); Meral Akşener’den 100 bin öğretmen atama sözü, Dünya, 7 May 2023.

                    [11] Para Analiz, Reuters: Millet İttifakı Babacan’ı ekonominin başına getirmeyi planlıyor, March 2023, https://www.paraanaliz.com/2023/ekonomi/reuters-millet-ittifaki-babacani-ekonominin-basina-getirmeyi-planliyor-g-48938/

                    [12] Sema Kizilarslan, DEVA Partisi “Ekonomi ve Finans Politikaları Eylem Planı”nı açıkladı: Hedef enflasyonu tek haneye çekmek, Medyascope, Februray 2022, https://medyascope.tv/2022/02/10/deva-partisi-ekonomi-ve-finans-politikalari-eylem-planini-acikladi-hedef-enflasyonu-tek-haneye-cekmek/

                    Footnotes
                      Related Articles

                       Join our mailing list 

                      Keep informed about events, articles & latest publications from Foreign Policy Centre

                      JOIN