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Kyrgyzstan: Why human rights have been declining over the last 20 years and what happened to the ‘Switzerland’ of Central Asia?

Article by Jasmine Cameron

March 1, 2021

Kyrgyzstan: Why human rights have been declining over the last 20 years and what happened to the ‘Switzerland’ of Central Asia?

Summary

It has been more than two decades since the Kyrgyz Republic became independent.  At that time, Kyrgyzstan had an ambitious agenda to become a ‘Switzerland’ of Central Asia and open up the country to new opportunities, embrace the market economy and become a true democracy where human rights are respected and protected. However, despite these initial goals, true and meaningful reforms never took place because of the three main factors that have driven these trends and directly impacting the protection and implementation of human rights. The factors are: the endemic corruption, the lack of political will and the culture of impunity, or ‘legal mentality’, a mindset where people believe that there will be no consequences for ignoring or subverting the legal process, and lack of respect for the rule of law. In order to overcome these obstacles, the Government of Kyrgyzstan as well as the international community must agree on a road map on how to better protect the rights of the people of Kyrgyzstan and especially the vulnerable and marginalised. The road map should include a conditionality rule that requires the Government to protect human rights in order to receive large aid packages or financial loans or technical assistance. In other words, the human rights agenda should always be front and center of the internal policies, and be a main objective during the external negotiations or evaluations of progress.

 

Background

Kyrgyzstan is a small landlocked country in Central Asia, located south of Kazakhstan and west of China, which gained its independence in 1991 after the dissolution of the Soviet Union.[1] The population of the country is slightly over six million people, with the majority of people living in rural areas and 32 per cent of the population living under the poverty line.[2]

 

In the earlier stages of independence, Kyrgyzstan was consistently called the ‘Switzerland’ of Central Asia, illustrating the international community’s hopes for the country and its potential to become an ‘island of democracy’ in the region.[3] Kyrgyzstan joined many international organisations and ratified the main human rights conventions.[4] For example, in 1992, Kyrgyzstan became the member of the World Bank, in 1994, Kyrgyzstan was the first among Central Asian republics to accede to the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and in 1998 was the first country of the former Soviet republics to join the World Trade Organization.[5]

 

Although the country took these important steps to become a democracy, through the years the Government of Kyrgyzstan has not respected, promoted, protected, and fulfilled its human rights obligations or its democratic promise. The country is considered to be only partially free by Freedom House’s Freedom in the World Report, with a score of 38/100.[6] It is battling endemic corruption and was placed at 126th out of 180 on the Transparency International Corruption Perception Index (CPI).[7] The rule of law reforms have stalled and the 2020 WJP rule of law index was at 0.48 or 87th place out of 128 countries; judicial independence remains elusive with the score of three out of seven, placing it at 106th out of 141 in the 2019 Global Competitiveness Index; and the country’s overall human rights record is worsening.[8]

 

The leaders of Kyrgyzstan fell into a disappointingly familiar cycle of retrenchment and backsliding on human rights and reforms. The first President, Askar Akayev, was elected in October 1991. Initially he positioned himself as a reformer and a moderate leader.[9] However, in his later years in office, he became more authoritarian by suppressing opposition members, more corrupt by allowing his family and others become enriched on local resources, and more willing to let lapse those international and local rules that might have reigned in his corruption.[10] This behaviour led to the ‘Tulip’ revolution in March 2005, and Akayev resigned a month later.[11] The second President Kurmanbek Bakiyev was elected in July 2005. Despite initial optimism, his presidency was marred by many problems including a failing economy, ties to criminals and the killings of several Members of Parliament (Jogorku Kenesh), corruption and his family’s battles over lucrative businesses.[12] In 2010, another revolution forced Bakiyev to flee and President Atambayev eventually took power in December 2011, following a short stint by Rosa Otunbayeva as interim President. Atambaev’s presidency was also troubled and problematic. While some reforms took place and new amendments to the constitution were adopted during his one six-year term in office, he was connected with many corruption cases ‘ranging from the illegal privatisation of municipal property to the embezzlement of funds from infrastructure projects.’[13] In November 2017, new President Sooronbay Jeenbekov became President, in the so-called first democratic transfer of power in the country. Jeenbekov was not president for long, however, and in 2020, after contested Parliamentary elections he was forced out in another revolution, that many observers called a coup d’état.[14] While it is too early to rule on how sincerely the most recent president Sadyr Japarov’s administration will support a human rights agenda, the methods used by him and his supporters to achieve power are concerning.

 

During this period, the overall human rights record deteriorated – the rights of the vulnerable, minority, women and marginalised groups remain unprotected; torture practices are common; human rights defenders, journalists and lawyers are harassed, and the environment for the civil society to operate is becoming more difficult.[15] The gender inequality in society and violations against the rights of women and girls have been getting worse in spite of recent legislative amendments aimed at improving the situation.[16] Violence against women is “wide-spread” and women are subject to “domestic violence, bride kidnapping, trafficking, early marriages and physical abuse” with limited access to justice to remedy such violations.[17] The situation with the rights of people with disabilities remains to be “unsatisfactory”.[18] People with disabilities continue to be discriminated against and isolated from the community especially when it comes to the access to medical care, political participation in decision-making on disability issues and the policy-making processes, though hopes are high for improvements after the 2019 CRPD ratification.[19] The rights of minorities continue to remain a sensitive topic for the Government and society especially in the aftermath of the 2010 inter-ethnic conflict in the south of Kyrgyzstan.[20] An Uzbek minority human rights defender and journalist Azimjan Askarov was detained, tortured and prosecuted after these events.[21] Askarov passed away in prison on July 25th 2020, in spite of the 2016 UN Human Rights Committee’s decision demanding his immediate release and many other interventions and advocacy efforts by the international community.[22] The torture practices by the law enforcement bodies have been an on-going reality for the past decades and appear to be “systematic”.[23] For example, in the first half of 2019, there were 171 allegations of torture registered in Kyrgyzstan and only in 11 cases prosecutors opened and investigated the cases.[24] The situation of human rights of the LGBTQ people remains challenging when violations, hate crimes and discrimination based on gender identity and sexual orientation are “menacingly systematic” and continuing.[25]

 

While many factors could account for these failures, the three most relevant reasons hindering the protection and enforcement of human rights are corruption, the lack of political will to protect human rights and the culture of impunity, i.e. legal mentality that allows a continuing culture of disrespect for the rule of law and human rights. These reasons affect human rights directly because the core of these human rights lie in protection of the most vulnerable and marginalised people, thus the existence of corruption and its repugnant effects harm the vulnerable people by denying them essential government services such as social support, health services, education, as well as legal services such as access to lawyers, courts and law enforcement.[26]

 

Corruption

In the last two decades, Kyrgyzstan, just like many other countries of the former Soviet Union, was one of the most corrupt countries in the world.[27] Though many anti-corruption laws and initiatives were enacted, this negative trend endures.[28] Kyrgyzstan’s corruption continues to be one of the most challenging obstacles in its overall development with a score of 29/100 in the Global Competitiveness Index and remains to be a barrier for rule of law implementation as indicated above.[29]

 

The Kyrgyz people themselves recognise and react to the detrimental effects of corruption. When asked about government performance, they indicated corruption as the third most important concern (47 per cent) after health (67 per cent) and the economy (52 per cent).[30] After the June 2019 Organised Crime and Corruption Reporting Project’s (OCCRP) reporting, ‘Plunder and Patronage in the Heart of Central Asia’, on Kyrgyzstan’s customs officials’ funneling $700 million out of the country, people took to the streets and demanded accountability and investigation into these allegations.[31] In October 2020, another series of reporting on corruption by the OCCPR called ‘The Matraimov Kingdom’ was published and caused a strong public reaction right before the October parliamentary elections, which themselves were characterised as having serious allegations of vote buying.[32] The protests against corruption and other political events in Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan, have been on-going since.[33]

 

While corruption exists in many areas of society including education, health care, city utilities, the corruption in the justice system has the most detrimental effect on the implementation and enforcement of human rights. The Government should be able to protect and fulfil its international human rights obligations and rely on the legal system in place to hold perpetrators accountable whether they are state or non-state actors. A legal system should allow for the Government to, first, conduct effective investigations at the initial stages of the legal process. Second, prosecutors should establish cases with sufficient and sound evidentiary basis to send to court. Third, the courts must comply with the fair trial standards to ensure impartial, competent and fair hearings to deliver just and legally sound decisions.

 

In practice, the insidious effects of corruption make reaching accountability during these legal steps a very bumpy and problematic process. Due to corruption, the law enforcement bodies are known for being ineffective, unprofessional, abusive and weak. The local culture of tribalism — where people support their relatives affiliated with the same local tribes – leads to “nepotism and unprofessional conduct, which in turns leads to operational inefficiencies.”[34] Some local police districts are influenced by local government officials making them vulnerable to partiality when investigating cases.[35] Victims often have a difficult time convincing police officers to even register complaints in part because of the pervasive corruption and, in part, because of the legal culture discussed below. For example, in 2019, there were 9,000 cases of domestic violence. Of those, approximately 5,456 cases were registered with the authorities as administrative cases, and only around 784 were registered as criminal.[36] Bribery, as a form of corruption, of law enforcement bodies remains common among citizens in order to avoid investigation or prosecution.[37] When asked if respondents or members of their families paid a bribe to police in the previous year when they came into contact with the service, 61 per cent replied positively which indicates that bribing police officials is a common practice.[38] While legislation exists to prohibit corruption including bribery, the laws overall have mostly declarative nature and do not envision detailed mechanisms of implementation.[39]

 

Extortion by law enforcement officers of those accused in the form of threatened arbitrary arrests, torture and the potential criminal prosecution is also quite common.[40] For example, police targets the members of the marginalised community and LGBT people to extort money from them. The Human Rights Watch reported that police tortured and extorted money from gay men and threaten them not to seek accountability.[41] When one of such victims, Mikhail Kudryashov, tried to demand remedies, the court did not adjudicate his case, thus, contributing to the culture of impunity and lack of accountability.[42]

 

Further, there is no relief from corruption when a case gets to the courts – the bribes and cash payments in relation to judicial decisions are among the highest in the world.[43] The judges and judiciary in general are vulnerable to corruption in part because of the politicised system of judicial appointments and low salaries for judicial personnel.[44] In 2010, a new Council for the Selection of judges was introduced and was tasked with the selection of candidates for the judges to the Constitutional, Supreme and local courts to be appointed by the President and the Parliament. Although the council did not include any representatives from the executive brunch, the two-third of the council consisted of the members of the political parties in parliament making the appointment process vulnerable to political influence.[45] The judicial branch is also dependent on the executive branch because the executive is responsible for the budget allocation.[46]

 

Many attempts have been made to reform and eradicate corruption in the justice system, but with limited success. In 2019, the Kyrgyz Government, with the support of donors, adopted a number of changes to the local laws attempting to eliminate “repressive measures” and develop “new methods” to better protection of human rights.[47] The reforms aimed to, among other things, shift the authority in investigative actions from prosecutors to courts, create an office of investigative judge, introduce a new system of probation, digitise courtrooms and investigative offices, and create a unified register.[48] It is still too early to see any marked improvements.

 

Other initiatives also supported by foreign donors include the EU’s 12.2 million euro rule of law programmes that have been running since 2014 and are focusing to increase the “effectiveness of judicial administration by creating transparency and credibility within judicial and court structures and fighting corruption.”[49] The United States Agency for International Development (USIAD) funded and implemented numerous programmes over the past years to support the Kyrgyz judiciary.[50] For example, in 2008-2010, USAID administered the Millennium Challenge Corporation’s (MCC) Threshold programme of $16 million, which supported reforms in the judiciary, as well as in prosecutorial services, to fight corruption.[51] The e-justice programme implemented through the International Development Law Organization (IDLO) was another USAID-funded initiative which assisted with the creation of a country-wide portal www.sot.kg that aims to make all court decisions available to the public by digitising them.[52] The most recent project funded by the USAID is a $3.2 million programme to “increase public trust in the Judiciary as an independent branch of power”.[53] While all these initiatives are very much needed, they are not always sustainable nor fully implemented once the grants money runs out, meaning that ultimately the local government is not held accountable for delivering long-term change.

 

Lack of political will power

The second factor that contributes to poor human rights protection is the lack of political will when the key decision makers fail to understand, implement and ensure that the policy solutions for human rights protections are carried out.[54] Former Presidents of Kyrgyzstan, Akayev, Bakiyev, Atambaev, Jeenbekov, and their administrations all lacked the necessary political will and failed to deliver and implement needed reforms to ensure sufficient protection of human rights. The reasons for this lack of political will are multifaced and complex, but corruption, abuse of office for personal gain, ties to the criminal world, and corrupt personal agenda seem to top the list.

 

While the first President Akayev was publicly outlining ambitious plans to build a new democratic and independent country where the rule of law prevailed, his era was characterised by limited support, funding and follow-through of human rights policies, plans and programmes. Akayev’s personnel policy of keeping the ‘old guard’ at the important regional governor positions as well as to staff other top seats of power with a close tribal network did not promote reform, as those leaders did not understand, implement and enforce the new policies in the regions, ensuring that his administration’s commitment to reform would fail.[55]

 

With President Bakiyev, the human rights agenda took a back seat when his close circle engaged in power grabs, dealing with criminal elements, and dividing lucrative contracts and businesses. The next two presidents, Atambaev and Jeenbekov, had followed similar patterns where their administrations did not have either true commitment to reform, nor had clear ideas or understanding of the policy solutions require to implement and deliver solutions to specific problems.[56] Such approaches certainly undermined the reform process and demonstrated the lack of political will to deliver basic rule of law to the public.

 

People’s ‘legal mentality’ – the culture of impunity and disrespect for the rule of law

The third issue responsible for the poor record of human rights is people’s ‘legal mentality’, i.e. the culture of impunity and the low level of respect and understanding of the concepts of the rule of law.[57] The laws protecting human rights are not implemented and do not work in practice if people do not believe in those laws, do not trust them and do not think there is accountability for violating them. As a result, such beliefs ultimately shape the attitudes and lead to behaviours where violating the law becomes a norm for both state-actors and citizens.

 

The culture of the rule of law is a complex and multifaceted concept in practice and there are vast resources, literature and manuals exist on the topic.[58] In Kyrgyzstan, the low culture of respect for the rule of law has its origins from the Soviet culture, where transparency, equality and accountability were an uncommon practice and ‘telephone justice’ was a norm.[59] In the current conditions of Kyrgyzstan, for example, lawyers (less so judges and prosecutors) are assaulted in or outside the courtroom by the members of the community because of the lack of understanding of the role of the legal profession as the lawyers are often identified with their clients and because of the lack of the accountability and consequences for such behaviour.[60] Similarly, the victims of gender violence would often be harassed not only by the perpetrator’s family, but also by the members of the larger community, as well as law enforcement and prosecutors because of their ignorance of the laws and wide-spread misogyny and sexism.[61]

 

To change this legal mentality towards the rule of law, there should be a desire from the community to make appropriate changes – both the Government and civil society.[62] In 2016, the Kyrgyz Government seemingly understood the problem and adopted a resolution on the Concept of Increasing of Legal Culture of the Population of the Kyrgyz Republic for 2016-2020 (Concept).[63] The concept aimed to “introduce a systematic approach to improve the legal culture, including legal training and education of the population, formation of modern legal culture and behaviour.”[64] The concept outlined a set of objectives and an action plan to reach those goals by raising awareness among the public and setting up educational initiatives to inform young generation about the importance of following the laws, by working with the local media to create relevant public campaigns, and by coordinating with the government agencies to ensure the implementation of these objectives. For example, one of such activity under this Concept was the ‘bus of solidarity’ initiative where a group of local lawyers traveled to remote areas of Chui and Osh regions to provide free legal advice, servicing 4,145 people in 2016-2017 and approximately 4,000 people in 2020.[65]

 

Other advocacy campaigns took place to achieve these goals. In 2008, the above mentioned MCC Threshold anti-corruption programme created cartoons for children highlighting human values that stealing, lying and cheating are not good behaviours and are not acceptable by their families, their community and the country.[66] In 2014, similar public awareness campaigns, competitions, art exhibits, and programmes also took place to improve the legal culture and to fight the culture of impunity.[67] While such individual programmes and actions may have been a success at that time, the consistency of the message and sustainability of such efforts is lacking. Without appropriate support from all stakeholders, it will likely take years to make a measurable difference in local legal culture. It remains an open question if the new administration will see this as a problem worth addressing.

 

Conclusion and Recommendations

The path forward for Kyrgyzstan is a challenging one and difficult choices and coordinated action must be made if there will be a serious attempt to bring real reform and respect for rule of law, and thus providing for better protection for human rights. That said, Kyrgyzstan faces an important decision point – rule of law leads to greater prosperity and integration with the international community. Continued endemic corruption leads to stagnation and instability. It is not too late for Kyrgyzstan to pursue tangible reforms even in times of political instability. That said, the longer these reforms are delayed, the more difficult they will be to bring to conclusion. Given Kyrgyzstan’s low culture of rule of law, at a certain point, existing systems will not be able to bear the pain and uncertainty that long-term reforms necessitate. In order to improve the situation for the protection of human rights in Kyrgyzstan, all stakeholders have a role to play:

 

  • The Kyrgyz Government have to demonstrate commitment and put the human rights agenda front and center into their internal policies using a human rights-based approach;
  • The Kyrgyz Government has to respect, promote, protect and fulfil its international human rights obligations, failure to do so may trigger conditions of the financial and technical assistance;
  • The Kyrgyz Government have to show political will and true commitment to combat corruption and improve the rule of law;
  • The Kyrgyz Government should continue its work on improving the legal mentality and educating the population on the importance of the rule of law and respect for the legal norms;
  • Local civil society should continue to monitor the human rights situation, report on any violations and raise awareness both locally and with the international community;
  • Local civil society should also be more unified and show more solidarity when it comes to the protecting their professional rights and their interests, for example, for the lawyers, journalists, minorities, and marginalised groups;
  • The international community should use their leverage and put conditions that the human rights agenda and rule of law are included and are addressed by the local government when negotiating for potential loans or financial assistance programs; and
  • The international community and donors should continue to provide assistance in a demand driven way supporting the human rights defenders, civils society organisations and empowering local communities to continue the reforms and make changes for the better.

 

Jasmine Cameron, Esq., is a US-trained human rights lawyer, originally from Kyrgyzstan. Jasmine has been working for the US Government and non-profit organizations and living overseas for many years. She was implementing the rule of law and human rights programs in the regions of Europe and Eurasia.

 

Image by Embassy of the Kyrgyz Republic to Switzerland.

 

[1] CIA: The World Fact Book, Kyrgyzstan, The World Factbook, CIA.gov, https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/kyrgyzstan/

[2] Ibid.

[3] The Frontline World, Kyrgyzstan, The Kidnapped Bride, PBS, March 2004, http://www.pbs.org/frontlineworld/stories/kyrgyzstan/facts.html

[4] OHCHR, View the ratification status by country or by treaty, Ratification Status for Kyrgyzstan, United Nations Human Rights Treaty Bodies, https://tbinternet.ohchr.org/_layouts/15/TreatyBodyExternal/Treaty.aspx?CountryID=93&Lang=EN. In 1994, Kyrgyzstan ratified the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR), the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural rights (CESSR), and the Convention on the Rights of the Child (CRC). In 1997, it joined the Convention against Torture and Other Cruel, Inhuman, or Degrading Treatment or Punishment (CAT), as well as the Convention on the Elimination of all Forms of Discrimination Against Women (CEDAW) and the International Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination (CERD). In 2003, Kyrgyzstan joined the Convention on the Protection of the Rights of All Migrant Workers and Members of Their Families (CMW). Most recently, in 2019, Kyrgyzstan joined the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities (CRPD).

[5] Ibid. See also World Trade Organization, Kyrgyz Republic to become WTO member, October 1998, https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres98_e/pr114_e.htm; see also United Nations, Sustainable Development Knowledge Platform, https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/documents/26459VNR_2020_Kyrgyzstan_Report_English.pdf

[6] Freedom House, 2020 Freedom in the World Report, http://www.pbs.org/frontlineworld/stories/kyrgyzstan/facts.html

[7] Transparency International, Annual Report, https://www.transparency.org/en/countries/kyrgyzstan. It also gives the score of 31 out of 100 (0 – highly corrupt and 100 – very clean), though this score is an improvement from the years before, for example, in 2012 Kyrgyzstan had the score of 154.

[8] World Justice Project, WJP 2020 Rule of Law Index, https://worldjusticeproject.org/our-work/research-and-data/wjp-rule-law-index-2020; World Economic Forum’s 2019 Global Competitiveness Index, http://www.pbs.org/frontlineworld/stories/kyrgyzstan/facts.html; Human Rights Watch, 2021 World Report Kyrgyzstan, https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2020/country-chapters/kyrgyzstan;  Amnesty International, Kyrgyzstan, https://www.amnesty.org/en/countries/europe-and-central-asia/kyrgyzstan/report-kyrgyzstan/

[9] Regine A. Spector, The Transformation of Askar Akaev, President of Kyrgyzstan, University of California, Berkeley, Spring 2004, https://iseees.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/shared/2004_02-spec.pdf

[10] RFE/RL, Central Asia Report: August 22, 2002, RFE/RL, August 2002, https://www.rferl.org/a/1342268.html

[11] International Crisis Group, Kyrgyzstan After the Revolution, May 2005, https://www.justice.gov/sites/default/files/eoir/legacy/2014/09/29/icg_05042005.pdf

[12] BBC NEWS, Kyrgyz MP shot dead in Bishkek, May 2006, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/4759301.stm; BBC NEWS, Kyrgyz rally against corruption, April 2006, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/4958146.stm

[13] Satina Aidar, What we know about alleged elite corruption under former Kyrgyz president Almazbek Atambayev, openDemocracy, October 2018, https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/odr/what-we-know-about-alleged-elite-corruption-under-former-kyrgyz-president-almazbek-atambayev/

[14] Vladimir Pirogov, Coup d’etat ‘under way’ as Kyrgyzstan opposition claims power, The Sydney Morning Herald, October 2020, https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/coup-d-etat-under-way-as-kyrgyzstan-opposition-claims-power-20201006-p562lo.html

[15] Human Rights Watch, Kyrgyzstan: Events of 2019, (HRW 2019 Report), https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2020/country-chapters/kyrgyzstan; see also Amnesty International, Kyrgyzstan, https://www.amnesty.org/en/countries/europe-and-central-asia/kyrgyzstan/report-kyrgyzstan/; see also Committee to Protect Journalist (CPJ): Kyrgyzstan, 2020, https://cpj.org/europe/kyrgyzstan/2020/; see situation with human rights defenders at Frontline Defenders, Kyrgyzstan, https://www.frontlinedefenders.org/en/location/kyrgyzstan; see also the situation with lawyers Legal Clinic Adilet’s Report on Lawyers, http://www.adilet.kg/en/news/full/415; see also Kyrgyzstan’s Bar Association’s Public Letter to the Kyrgyz President on concerning trends of attacks on lawyers, www.advokatura.kg/foto/obrashchenie-k-prezidentu-kyrgyzskoy-respubliki; Radio Azattyk, Osh: The lawyer says that he was under surveillance and eavesdropping, November 2020, https://www.azattyk.org/a/30966296.html

[16] Human Rights Watch, Kyrgyzstan: Events of 2019, https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2020/country-chapters/kyrgyzstan

[17] UN Women, Kyrgyzstan, https://eca.unwomen.org/en/where-we-are/kyrgyzstan; see also American Bar Association, Center for Human Rights: Violence against Women in Kyrgyzstan: Barriers to Accessing Justice, Fair Trial Rights, and the Right of Peaceful Assembly, December 2020, https://www.americanbar.org/groups/human_rights/reports/violence-against-women-in-kyrgyzstan–barriers-to-accessing-just/; see also American Bar Association, Center for Human Rights, Trial Observation Report: Kyrgyzstan vs. Gulzhan Pasanova, May 2020, https://www.americanbar.org/groups/human_rights/reports/kyrgyzstan_vs_Gulzhan_Pasanova1/

[18] Gulmira Kazakunova, Kyrgyzstan’s Social Protection Measures and Programmes, United Nations, June 2018, https://www.un.org/development/desa/dspd/wp-content/uploads/sites/22/2018/06/3-1.pdf

[19] Amnesty International, One year after CRPD ratification in Kyrgyzstan, March 2020, https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/campaigns/2020/03/one-year-after-crpd-ratification-in-kyrgyzstan/

[20] Minority Rights Group International, Kyrgyzstan, https://minorityrights.org/country/kyrgyzstan/. Kyrgyzstan also got a 55 place in 2020 on the people under threat index that identifies communities facing potential threats of genocide, mass killing, or systematic repressions.

[21] Human rights Watch, Kyrgyzstan: Travesty of Justice for Rights Defender, https://www.hrw.org/news/2017/01/24/kyrgyzstan-travesty-justice-rights-defender

[22] Committee to Protect Journalists,  Azimjan Askarov, https://cpj.org/campaigns/azimjon-askarov/; also see,  OHCHR | Release Azimjan Askarov and quash his conviction, UN human rights experts urge Kyrgyzstan, https://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=19853&LangID=E; see the UN Human Rights Committee’s decision at https://tbinternet.ohchr.org/_layouts/15/treatybodyexternal/Download.aspx?symbolno=CCPR/C/116/D/2231/2012&Lang=en ; US State Department, 2014 Human Rights Defender Award Ceremony for Azimjan Askarov and Foro Penal, https://2009-2017.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2015/07/244903.htm; Human Rights Watch, Joint Letter to the EU on Detention of Azimjan Askarov in Kyrgyzstan, November 2018, https://www.hrw.org/news/2018/12/06/joint-letter-eu-detention-azimjon-askarov-kyrgyzstan

[23] Olga Dolzhenkova and Alexandra Vasilkova, The History Of Torture In Kyrgyzstan: “Used Combat Sambo Techniques To Protect Oneself”, CABAR, July 2020, https://longreads.cabar.asia/the-history-of-torture-in-kyrgyzstan

[24] US Department of State, 2019 Country Reports on Human Rights Practices: Kyrgyz Republic (DOS 2019 HRPR), https://www.state.gov/reports/2019-country-reports-on-human-rights-practices/kyrgyzstan/

[25] Joint submission to the United Nations Universal Periodic Review, Kyrgyzstan: Human Rights Violations Of

LGBT, https://ilga.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Shadow-report-15.pdf; Human rights Watch, 2019 World Report, Kyrgyzstan, https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2020/country-chapters/kyrgyzstan

[26] Lucy Koechlin and Magdalena Sepúlveda Carmon, Corruption and human rights: exploring the connection.

[27] Robert Legvold, Corruption, Global Security, and World Order, Corruption, the Criminalized State and Post-Soviet Transition.

[28] OECD, Kyrgyzstan, Anti-Corruption Reforms in Kyrgyzstan, March 2015, http://www.oecd.org/daf/anti-bribery/Kyrgyzstan-Round-3-Monitoring-Report-ENG.pdf

[29] OECD, Kyrgyzstan anti-corruption project, http://www.oecd.org/corruption/acn/kyrgyzstananti-corruptionproject.htm

[30]  Transparency International, Corruption Barometer, Annual Report Kyrgyzstan, 2016 https://www.transparency.kg/files/AnnualReport2016.pdf

[31] OCCRP, Plunder and Patronage in the Heart of Central Asia, November 2019, https://www.occrp.org/en/plunder-and-patronage/; US News, World News, Hundreds Protest Over Kyrgyz Corruption Report, November 2019, https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2019-11-25/hundreds-protest-over-kyrgyz-corruption-report

[32] OCCPR, The Matraimov Kingdom, October 2020, https://www.occrp.org/en/the-matraimov-kingdom/; see also, OSCE, Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, Kyrgyzstan, ODIHR Limited Election Observation Mission, October 2020, https://www.osce.org/files/f/documents/7/a/472461_0.pdf

[33] RFE/RL, Kyrgyz Activists Rally Against Corruption, February 2021, https://www.rferl.org/a/kyrgyz-activists-rally-against-corruption/31102170.html

[34] Risk and Compliance Portal, Kyrgyzstan Country Report, July 2020, https://www.ganintegrity.com/portal/country-profiles/kyrgyzstan/

[35] Ibid.

[36] Human Rights Watch, Kyrgyzstan – Events of 2018, https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2019/country-chapters/kyrgyzstan#e81181

[37] Risk and Compliance Portal, Kyrgyzstan Country Report, July 2020, https://www.ganintegrity.com/portal/country-profiles/kyrgyzstan/

[38] OECD, Kyrgyzstan, Anti-Corruption Reforms in Kyrgyzstan, March 2015, http://www.oecd.org/daf/anti-bribery/Kyrgyzstan-Round-3-Monitoring-Report-ENG.pdf

[39] Ibid

[40] U.S. Department of State, 2019 Country Reports on Human Rights Practices: Kyrgyz Republic, https://www.state.gov/reports/2019-country-reports-on-human-rights-practices/kyrgyzstan/

[41]Human rights Watch, Kyrgyzstan: Police torture gay men, https://www.hrw.org/europe/central-asia/kyrgyzstan

[42] Ibid.

[43] Risk and Compliance Portal, Kyrgyzstan Country Report, July 2020, https://www.ganintegrity.com/portal/country-profiles/kyrgyzstan/

[44] Transparency International, Kyrgyzstan: Overview of Corruption and anti-corruption, https://www.transparency.org/en/countries/kyrgyzstan;  see also Sustainable Development Goals, Voluntary Review of the Kyrgyz Republic, p. 121, https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/documents/26459VNR_2020_Kyrgyzstan_Report_English.pdf

[45] Transparency International, Kyrgyzstan: Overview of Corruption and anti-corruption, https://www.transparency.org/en/countries/kyrgyzstan

[46] Ibid.

[47] Sustainable Development Goals, Voluntary Review of the Kyrgyz Republic, https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/documents/26459VNR_2020_Kyrgyzstan_Report_English.pdf

[48] TI Report, at p. 8 and Voluntary Review, at p. 122.

[49] IRZ, Kyrgyzstan: The Rule of Law Programme in the Kyrgyz Republic – 2nd phase (ROLPRO2), April 2020, https://www.irz.de/index.php/en/projects/74-kirgisistan-eu-projekte/1771-kyrgyzstan-the-rule-of-law-programme-in-the-kyrgyz-republic

[50] USAID, U.S. Foreign Aid by Country, https://explorer.usaid.gov/cd/KGZ?fiscal_year=2021&measure=Obligations

[51] Millennium Challenge Corporation, Kyrgyz Republic Threshold Program, https://www.mcc.gov/where-we-work/program/kyrgyz-republic-threshold-program

[52] International Development Legal Organization, E-Nabling Sustainable Development: Lessons From E-Justice Programming In Kyrgyzstan, December 2018, https://www.idlo.int/sites/default/files/pdfs/publications/IDLO%20-%20LLB%20-%20E-Justice%20-%20December2018.pdf

[53] USAID, Trusted Judiciary, Fact Sheet, Kyrgyz Republic, https://www.usaid.gov/kyrgyz-republic/fact-sheets/trusted-judiciary

[54] Since the 2000s, a term of political will has been defined, measured and mapped, and applied to many scenarios in the newly created states of the former Soviet states. The scholars define the political will as the extent of committed support among key decision makers for a particular policy solution to a particular problem. In other words, a set of decision-makers with a common understanding of a particular problem on the formal agenda is committed to supporting – a commonly perceived, potentially effective policy solution. See: Lori A. Post, Amber N. W. Raile, and Eric D. Raile, Defining Political Will, Montana State University, August 2010, https://scholarworks.montana.edu/xmlui/bitstream/handle/1/14420/Raile_PoliticsPolicy2010_A1b.pdf;jsessionid=56375A117171857854D2CF29975F8C84?sequence=1

[55] Regine A. Spector, “The Transformation of Askar Akaev, President of Kyrgyzstan, University of California, Berkeley, 2004, https://iseees.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/shared/2004_02-spec.pdf

[56] Satina Aidar, What we know about alleged elite corruption under former Kyrgyz president Almazbek Atambayev, openDemocracy, October 2018, https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/odr/what-we-know-about-alleged-elite-corruption-under-former-kyrgyz-president-almazbek-atambayev/; see also Bertelsmann Stiftung, Transformation Index, Country Report 2020 Kyrgyzstan, https://www.bti-project.org/en/reports/country-report-KGZ.html#pos15

[57] This is a self-made term and is not commonly used, in the relevant literature it’s more likely referred to as the culture of impunity or legal culture. However, I prefer to use the term of ‘legal mentality’, as the term incorporates the idea of people’s mindset towards the rule of law culture.

[58] United Nations and the Rule of Law, https://www.un.org/ruleoflaw/what-is-the-rule-of-law/; see also Leanne McKay, Toward-a-Rule-of-Law-Culture, United States Institute of Peace, 2015, https://www.usip.org/sites/default/files/Toward-a-Rule-of-Law-Culture_Practical-Guide_0.pdf; see also Center for Teaching the Rule of Law, Educational Resources, https://www.thecenterforruleoflaw.org/educational-resources.html

[59] UNDP in Kyrgyz Republic, The legal culture starts from me, from you, from us, from each member of the society, September 2020, https://www.kg.undp.org/content/kyrgyzstan/en/home/presscenter/articles/2020/08/legal-culture-starts-with-every-member-of-society.html; see also Ministry of Justice of the Kyrgyz Republic, On approval of the Concept of increasing the legal culture of the population of the Kyrgyz Republic for 2016–2020, http://minjust.gov.kg/en/content/755; See also International Crises Group, Kyrgyzstan: The Challenge of Judicial Reform, April 2008, https://www.crisisgroup.org/europe-central-asia/central-asia/kyrgyzstan/kyrgyzstan-challenge-judicial-reform

[60] Lawyers for Lawyers, Surveys of Working Conditions Lawyers, https://lawyersforlawyers.org/en/survey-of-working-conditions-lawyers/

[61] American Bar Association, Center for Human Rights, Trial Observation Report: Kyrgyzstan vs. Gulzhan Pasanova, May 2020, https://www.americanbar.org/groups/human_rights/reports/kyrgyzstan_vs_Gulzhan_Pasanova1/

[62] Leanne McKay, Toward-a-Rule-of-Law-Culture,  United States Institute of Peace, 2015, https://www.usip.org/sites/default/files/Toward-a-Rule-of-Law-Culture_Practical-Guide_0.pdf

[63] Ministry of Justice of the Kyrgyz Republic, On approval of the Concept of increasing the legal culture of the population of the Kyrgyz Republic for 2016–2020, http://minjust.gov.kg/en/content/755

[64] UNDP in Kyrgyz Republic, Towards a sustainable access to justice for legal empowerment in the Kyrgyz Republic, https://www.kg.undp.org/content/kyrgyzstan/en/home/projects/towards-a-sustainable-access-to-justice-for-legal-empowerment-in0.html

[65] UNDP in Kyrgyz Republic, 4,000 People Received Legal Aid Within Six Days, December 2020, https://www.kg.undp.org/content/kyrgyzstan/en/home/presscenter/pressreleases/2020/12/fla-decade.html

[66] Aljazeera, Kyrgyzstan cartoon takes aims at corruption, YouTube, December 2009, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y6-2o4P4TSY. I was honored to be part of this initiative by helping to create and manage this project.

[67] OECD Report, p. 28.

Footnotes
    Related Articles

    Retreating Rights – Kyrgyzstan: Conclusions and recommendations

    Article by Adam Hug

    Retreating Rights – Kyrgyzstan: Conclusions and recommendations

    Resolving the situation

    This Retreating Rights publication has tried to set out the scale of the challenges facing Kyrgyzstan today. The people of Kyrgyzstan have seen the same movie several times now: rapid, chaotic political change leading to new leaders with big promises but who fall prey to the same vices as those they replaced, leading in turn to further dramatic change. The central question now remains whether President Japarov will follow the same script as his predecessors. However while certain issues have been amplified since the October 2020 upheaval, most of Kyrgyzstan’s challenges have been years in the making and at their heart lie three mutually reinforcing problems: corruption, hatred and impunity.

     

    There are a lot of questions then for those who want to help Kyrgyzstan tackle these ‘three evils’.[1] Western Governments working with Kyrgyzstan have not ignored the country’s structural problems but they have perhaps been guilty of sometimes downplaying them. There has been a tendency to compare the country with the shocking human rights performance of its Central Asian neighbours rather than addressing Kyrgyzstan purely on its own merits, something that may have dulled some of the urgency of the response. Rather than panic though, it is time for a clear eyed assessment of the present situation, including examining the progress (or lack thereof) of previous approaches, in order to turn ‘deep concern’ into action.

     

    As ever it is easier to diagnose a problem than to suggest a suitable remedy. However many of the authors in this contribution have tried to chart a possible way forward for international engagement in Kyrgyzstan. This conclusion seeks to marshal some of those ideas and add some additional ones. The challenges are both conceptual and practical, around what goals Western donors are seeking to achieve and what mechanisms they are trying to use to attain them.

     

    Given the failings of the Kyrgyz state during the pandemic and the endemic levels of corruption that riddle the delivery of public services and all parts of public life that helped lead to the subsequent collapse and reformation of state authority in October, there is an urgent need to review projects that have been focused on capacity building in government ministries, state agencies and with the Supreme Council (Parliament). A significant proportion of international donor support, notably from the EU, has been channeled directly to the Government in the form of budget support.[2] There are important capacity building and local ownership arguments in favour of budget support in the context of a relationship of trust between donors and government. However there are reasons to reconsider existing approaches given the enduring levels of graft within these institutions (even if donor funded work is subject to heavy scrutiny such projects can displace other funding that can be used for less helpful purposes), their lack of accountability to citizens of Kyrgyzstan and the variable outcomes of different schemes.[3] As Ernest Zhanaev notes there is a tendency for an overly technocratic approach to assessing the outcomes of joint projects, an expert involved in some of these processes described it as ‘box ticking’.[4] An open and frank review would have been welcome even if the October 2020 events had not taken place. As President Japarov is looking at ways to consolidate the power of the central state and the international community should only find new ways to do this in return for real change in how things work.

     

    Beyond working directly with the Government of Kyrgyzstan there is a tendency for governmental and institutional donors to package up their support into large funding bids, with bureaucratic reporting mechanisms in English. This approach is not always as conducive as it could be for the capacity building of local civil society (both activists and organisations) or the ability to move swiftly and creatively to address emerging issues.[5] This leads to many contracts being won by big international players, both consultancies and NGOs, with local organisations sometimes only able to benefit as junior partners.

     

    When it comes to Kyrgyzstan’s civil society, as discussed in the introduction and many of the essays, it is increasingly clear that local NGOs are not only under legislative and political pressure but that the campaign of delimitation has sadly been successful in the eyes of a significant proportion of the public. Asel Doolotkeldieva concludes her essay by arguing that ‘it is important to understand that under the present conditions liberal NGOs and independent mass media are discredited in public eyes and enjoy a construed reputation of Western agents. Promoting these actors further will not help neither the liberal society nor the image of the international community. The focus on human rights, including the LGBT rights, has worsened considerably the Western image and consequently diminished the degree of influence of Western ideals and projects on local politics’.

     

    So given that are legitimate concerns about the operation and outcomes of activities conducted at all levels there is a compelling case for an open, holistic and independent review of all donor spending by governments, multilateral institutions (including the development banks) and international foundations in Kyrgyzstan. This should be informed by a wide-ranging evidence gathering process involving a mix of independently run focus groups and public opinion polls to gauge broader public opinion (to help understand both what the public would like to see prioritised and what they understand about the current situation, including past donor efforts).[6] Not only should such a process ensure that it reaches beyond those who would normally engage in donor initiatives, but there is, as Sharshenova notes, a need to engage with those with different viewpoints (including institutional stakeholders and experts, those whose values may be different to existing liberal interlocutors, including moderate or constructive critics of donor actions).[7]

     

    While any review process must be led by evidence on the ground the experts who have contributed to this collection have some important ideas to suggest. Both Sharshenova and Doolotkeldieva argue, in line with development best practice, strongly in favour of finding new ways to root democratic and governance practice in the local rather than international. Sharshenova argues that ‘democracy needs to come from within, and the EU will need to accommodate local forms and understandings of democracy’, while Doolotkeldieva writes that in order ‘to redress these negative images (of NGOs and liberal values) against the background of anti-Westernism prevalent in Kyrgyzstan, Western partners should work to promote other human rights images than of themselves’. The focus needs to be on shared principles rather than specific structures, so while using examples of Western institutions and practices can sometimes help illustrate ideas and inform operational understanding, the systems that evolve in Kyrgyzstan would benefit from being able to draw legitimacy from local values and history, as well as examples of good practice from other developing country contexts.

     

    One of the major conceptual challenges is around what the international community should be prioritising. Given the level of cynicism amongst many in Kyrgyzstan towards liberally minded initiatives, some of the contributors here have argued in favour of a switch in priority towards projects focused on economic security and education rather than rights. There are a couple of dimensions to assess here. Firstly, many of the existing major donor projects in Kyrgyzstan have focused on building the economy and improving access to education, with limited to mixed results. However in this author’s opinion there could well be scope for a switch in focus to more directly tackling issues of economic inequality and providing grassroots support to family incomes of those most in need rather than an emphasis on entrepreneurship and business development at a higher level, if both poverty reduction and the need to tackle populist discontent are seen as a strategic priority for donors.

     

    Secondly, it is worth noting the global context of development aid budgets dropping around the world, with major global cuts to the UK’s Foreign Aid budget and the withdrawal of Germany as a bilateral donor from Kyrgyzstan, on the grounds of reprioritisation and claims that poverty reduction efforts had already been a success.[8] So funding for a major new drive on more inclusive economic development may face significant resource hurdles, particularly once emergency COVID support schemes have been wound down.

     

    Thirdly, it is important to examine a narrative that donors or ‘the West’ should have focused on economic development before civic freedoms and democracy (with a view that the latter would follow the former) in a global context. For example, since the 1990s enormous amounts of Western development aid has been spent in countries like Uganda and Rwanda with a successful focus on delivering local education initiatives, improving primary health care, access to water and micro-level economic development, yet both (and many others recipients) are still authoritarian regimes, with Uganda experiencing recent electoral repression as well as having a worse Transparency International Ranking for Corruption than Kyrgyzstan.[9] This is not to argue against the enormous value such development initiatives have in terms of improving people’s life chances but the evidence is certainly limited that this automatically provides a future spring board for political development and reform. So while in Kyrgyzstan the lack of progress on economic development, poverty reduction and equality have helped nationalist and reactionary groups cynically to compare and contrast funding for NGOs, that poverty is used as a distraction from the corruption and mismanagement that really lies behind that failure. This author would caution against taking an ‘either/or’ approach to ‘development’ or civil and political rights. This is not least because the two agendas can join effectively together to try to address issues of governance, transparency and accountability which lie at the heart of Kyrgyzstan’s problems.

     

    This is not intended to be a counsel of despair, to throw away everything people have worked hard for and to give up. There are many past programmes that have made a positive difference to people’s lives and any new strategy from donors will need to find ways to engage with the state to help tackle certain development challenges; there will continue to be a role for international expertise and the ability to work at scale; and working with existing and emerging civil society groups will be a crucial part of the picture going forwards. In particular those civil society activists and human rights defenders who have weathered enormous pressures, made huge personal sacrifices to prevent abuse or to painstakingly achieve incremental change should not simply be cut loose to fend for themselves against the powerful forces they have angered over the years. But it is nevertheless time for reflection and while this collection does not pretend to have all the answers, it does attempt to suggest some of them.

     

    So any major shifts in funding priorities should be informed by the findings of the type of review suggested above and be driven by local demand in order to build public credibility. Nevertheless, there are a number of important themes to be considered that flow from the analysis in this publication. Firstly, a rigorous focus on governance, transparency and accountability will be important to tackle the systemic problems of corruption, hate (often linked to nationalism, misogyny and homophobia) and impunity that this publication concentrated on. Secondly, a number of essay contributors here, and other experts interviewed as part of the research, strongly argue for a rethink of previous international engagement work with political parties and Parliament, given how recent events have further exposed the hollowness of such political vehicles. This is not to suggest a bar on engagement with the development of political ideas with civil society or to end inter-Parliamentary engagement as a form of diplomacy, but at least in the short-term capacity building efforts need to be rethought in recognition of the ephemeral nature of party allegiances and where the true sources of power lie in the current political system.

     

    Work on domestic violence, women’s rights and LGBTQ rights remain hugely important areas for donors, not least given that there are few options for domestic funding for protecting these communities and the growing risks they face provide a clear need for efforts to monitoring threats and preventing possible violence. However it is abundantly clear that such work has been weaponised and deployed against the wider range of liberal minded initiatives and ‘the West’ in general. There are no easy answers about what might shift the tide of public opinion on these issues but donors can perhaps think more about how they can develop and promote narratives around their wider interventions that emphasise areas of shared interest with the wider Kyrgyz population. Building positive, unifying and engaging public narratives, rooted in local preferences, about the work that liberal civil society (including journalists, human rights defenders, NGO workers and lawyers) are doing are likely to be the most effective ways of gradually shifting public opinion. Fact-checking and myth-busting can be helpful to inform elite policy actors in their work but the wider research on their use shows that this approach can be of limited use in reaching out to many sceptics, particularly where the message carrier is not trusted and the sources of disinformation (often people they know) are more trusted. So a combative approach to challenging falsehood can often harden rather than soften resistance, accentuating polarisation and often act to amplifying negative messages to a wider audience as Gulzat Baialieva and Joldon Kutmanaliev note. There may however be less confrontational approaches that can find some areas of commonality, while respecting difference, that open up new conversations. There is scope to learn from the burgeoning global literature on psychology and messaging and then look to implement best practice in Kyrgyzstan.

     

    Donors will be considering what role that could and should play in supporting new volunteer and social movements.[10] As Doolotkeldieva notes there is more that can be done to understand and map the dynamics and dimensions of these more fluid forms of civic mobilisation to identify where the real sources of authority and change are located. It will be important that conversations between these movements and the international community are shaped by the wishes of the activists, who may well have understandable wariness about engaging with the international donors (even when their assistance could be helpful) given the ways in which more traditional civil society has been demonised for its links to the ‘West’.

     

    When looking at traditional donor support to civil society, as set out above there needs to be a process of reflection, recalibration and reform but there would seem to be two recommendations that might help move things forward, though they are somewhat in contradiction with each other. Local civil society groups would benefit from greater flexibility and speed of response from donors to help them adapt to the fast changing local environment and to enable them to be more closely driven by priorities arising from local need, rather than plugging in to strategies devised in donor home capitals. Such a flexible approach (including core funding) would likely rely, in this time of ever greater desire for scrutiny and accountability to donor taxpayers, on working with trusted partners with whom donors have an established working relationship and a confidence in their operational capacity. However this does not necessarily fit very well with the second clear recommendation which is to find ways to support fresh voices and new thinking, given the critique posed by Shirin Aitmatova and others that certain donor approaches and partnerships have gone stale over several decades. There would seem to be a misalignment between the local Kyrgyz demand for creativity, innovation and risk-taking and the Western donor taxpayer demand for accountability. There is a need to make the case that innovation and outcomes can be more important in showing value for money than what can be caricatured as box ticking exercises. Some Western aid sceptics may be willing to consider more creative approaches if packaged in the right way, particularly given that some of their often misplaced concerns can echo local complaints about ‘the usual suspects’ and ‘grant eating’. Decisions on any strategic changes should be based on evidence and the eventual approach would be likely to comprise a mix of greater flexibility for some trusted partners and involving a new generation of organisations, but it is important that this not be business as usual masquerading as something new if the credibility gap of donor aid is to be addressed.

     

    As discussed above, any strategic rethink is coming at a hugely challenging time for the international donors, as demands rise in the wake of COVID and as budgets are often being cut. This context gives less room for maneuver than would be ideal and makes it more difficult to provide the stability and predictability of funding that can be so important. However, it is important that the international community takes a holistic view about the range of tools available to it.

     

    Given that the EU has negotiated but not yet ratified its 2019 Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement with Kyrgyzstan and the UK is currently negotiating its new partnership arrangements there is surely scope to link progress on completing these deals (and in the case of the UK-Kyrgyzstan deal uprating it to match the EU’s current plans) in return for some concrete and measurable actions to reassure partners that there will be no further backsliding on human rights. Partners could continue to explore new ways to use trade and investment incentives, with human rights conditionality and anti-corruption safeguards that can be leveraged and tailored to incentivise reform and improved development outcomes. Conditionality against clear benchmarks will be important but needs to be coupled with increased incentives to have resonance in an environment where the ‘West’ is clearly behind Russia and China in terms of Kyrgyzstan’s strategic priorities. This could potentially include ways to examine debt forbearance (such as interest relief) and debt reductions and relief on the portion of Kyrgyzstan’s debt held by multilateral banks (around 44 per cent of total external debt, which at $1.7bn is a relatively small figure by global standards) and other Western partners.[11] Such efforts could help to free up funding for services in the governance revenue budget and give the country the policy space to consider new capital investment projects (a comprehensive approach to existing debt relief could also be linked to find ways to improve transparency and accountability over new lending by China and other partners).

     

    There is also a clear role the international community can play outside of Kyrgyzstan to address some of the systemic failings within it. This means being willing to use the personal sanctions (including asset freezes, banking system and visa bans) provided by the US, UK and EU Magnitsky powers, and anti-corruption mechanisms such as the UK’s Unexplained Wealth Orders.[12] The US have already deployed their Magnitsky sanctions in relation to Raimbek Matraimov on grounds of corruption.[13] Although the UK and EU schemes currently do not include corruption as a reason for applying such sanctions but other anti-corruption tools perhaps may be more appropriate in jurisdictions where assets identified in Kyrgyzstan’s corruption scandals are to be found.[14] Officials involved in the torture and imprisonment of Azimjan Askarov, should however be eligible for all three mechanisms, sending a strong signal against impunity, though potentially with a less direct impact on the lives of the alleged perpetrators. It should go without saying that the ways in which the Kyrgyz elites have used international real estate markets, company formation and other tools, provide more evidence of the need for wider anti-corruption reforms across the West, as addressed in other FPC publications and the wider literature.[15]

     

    International social media companies can certainly play their part to help address the situation on the ground. They can look at ways to expand access to Kyrgyz language moderation and support to tackle online hate speech, particularly at times of political tension such as elections or constitutional referendums or around known flashpoints such as International Women’s Day. As Begaim Usenova and ARTICLE 19 argue the internal redress mechanisms of social media platforms still need further improvement and better sign posting, with a particular focus on tackling gender-based abuse. Further steps should be taken to expedite review mechanisms for those who are repeat victims, building on progress so far. Social media companies and donors can find ways to collaborate to help journalists and activists in Kyrgyzstan develop new methods of generating advertising revenue, crowdfunding and other monetisation techniques. Traditional donor funding can and should still assist with training on investigative reporting and on support for Kyrgyz language and local journalists, including how best to use social media and online dissemination channels. Given the rise in online abuse (to complement and amplify in-person threats) social media companies and donors (including donors linked to social media companies) need to do more to provide psychosocial support for victims of abuse and to facilitate the holistic documentation of such targeted abuse campaigns against journalists, human rights defenders, NGO workers and lawyers, with a particular focus on those in rural areas without established support networks.

     

    There is much to say about what Western partners can do in relation to the situation, more than can be contained above or in this publication. However it is important not to ignore the political agency of the new Government of Kyrgyzstan. President Japarov’s background and his rise to power have raised a number of legitimate concerns about what may come next and so there is perfectly understandable scepticism about future prospects, not least given the trajectory of his many predecessors upon taking office. However, it is important to find appropriate ways to constructively engage with Japarov’s stated objectives and find the right mix of incentives and pressure to try and hold him to his pledges. International partners will need to make clear that further attempts to shrink the already reduced civic space or to target vulnerable groups and journalists who annoy him will lead to concerted and wide-ranging push back. Despite the many reservations noted in this publication about the approach being taken by Japarov to tackling corruption, his desire to be seen to be doing something by his supporters is clear. This could provide new opportunities to mutually identify illegitimately acquired assets stashed around the world, provided that such efforts are not solely targeted at his political opponents.

     

    President Japarov has a long held beliefs about the importance of state consolidation and the centralisation of power in response to the chaos of previous years. It is clear that this political prospectus has some public appeal but it is at odds with a previous desire by donors and local civil society to see the distribution of power away from the ‘strong man as President’ (a key factor in the 2005 and 2010 revolutions) and towards to Supreme Council and local communities, with the intention of creating greater pluralism. In following these perfectly laudable objectives, the approach of the last ten years may have to some extent redistributed power, but it often did so in opaque and unaccountable ways, with a corrupted Parliament and players behind the scenes shaping decision-making (a key factor in the events of October 2020).

     

    This author would argue that there is no single correct international model to follow and that there is not always a clear link between the form and function of government, between structures and accountability. This can perhaps be illustrated by two well-known, but far from perfect, democratic models. Though the US President is often still described as the most powerful person in the world, the country’s Presidential System is designed with such substantial congressional and judicial ‘checks and balances’ that the President often has a real challenge in passing much of his agenda. Furthermore, given the substantial power held at state level there are large areas of policy and practice where the federal government is only tangentially involved. Whereas the UK’s Westminster Parliament, claimed to be ‘the mother of Parliaments’, in fact consolidates more power in the hands of the executive and central government than almost any other in the democratic world.[16]

     

    Despite the very low turnout, President Japarov’s victory and the approval of the change to a Presidential system by a wide margin will see him push ahead with his project of state consolidation and power centralisation, which he argues will enable Kyrgyzstan to deliver a more competent government and better outcomes for its public. This consolidation process clearly carries significant risks that it could quickly lead the country further down the road to full authoritarianism. However, given where things stand following the approval by referendum of the move to transfer powers from the Parliament to the President, there is a need to try and find new ways to help provide genuine transparency and accountability. Considering the referendum result and Japarov’s clearly stated objectives, it may be that arguments around retaining some ‘checks’, in the form of requirements to sometimes pause the breakneck speed with which he is making change and consult with the public (giving the opportunity for a populist like Japarov to learn what citizens think in real time and therefore potentially head off issues that may cause him problems) may have a greater chance of gaining some (if probably limited) traction than demands to retain ‘balances’ that give power (and opportunities for horse trading and corruption) to other political players that are or can be captured by powerful interests.[17]

     

    One of the emerging issues will be what to do about the Kurultai. Given the history of the proposal and its backers and the abuse of similar schemes in Central Asia as a tool for presidential power to undermine or bypass parliamentary scrutiny it is absolutely clear why many activists have focused on trying to stop its inclusion in the new constitution. However the proposal, albeit in a watered down version, has made it into the revised February 2021 draft and, given the importance of some its backers to President Japarov’s electoral coalition, it seems likely that something called a Kurultai will be created whenever the constitution is finally voted on and, in all likelihood, adopted. So while efforts to remove this provision may well continue, it is important for civil society and the international community to consider what lessons they would like to seek to be applied from local community practices in Kyrgyzstan and from models of consultative bodies in developing countries around the world that could be more helpful than the current ideas being floated. If Western models can be of assistance to the discussion, then examples might include the European Economic and Social Committee (EESC), the mostly slow paced and bureaucratic EU consultative body of ‘social partners’ that acts as a generally harmless and sometimes helpful adjunct to the Union’s democratic structures, through to the ‘Citizens Assembly’ models used particularly effectively in Ireland but also in places like Canada and Demark.[18] There are certainly a wide range of different ideas out there for inclusive collective discussion and decision-making rather than leaving the body to be a self-appointed talking shop for older men or a rubber stamp for the whims of those in power, which it risks becoming without proactive engagement by those with better ideas.

     

    Beyond the debate around the Kurultai, there will be a need to focus efforts on the other contentious issues that remain in the February draft constitution. Four particular areas stand out to this author. In the current draft, Article 8.4 would create a requirement that ‘political parties, trade unions and other public associations ensure the transparency of their financial and economic activities’ that may give constitutional weight to efforts to increase NGO regulation and bureaucratic pressure. The continued, though watered down, presence of a ‘moral and ethical’ values test in Article 10 4, which states that ‘in order to protect the younger generation, events that contradict moral and ethical values, the public consciousness of the people of the Kyrgyz Republic may be limited by law’ is a continuing concern. Efforts must be made to ensure that this is only applied to issues such as protecting young people from age inappropriate content, such as pornography, rather than providing a backdoor mechanism to supress discussion about women’s or LGBTQ rights issues that offend ‘traditional’ sensibilities. The experience of how the Russian Federal Law ‘for the Purpose of Protecting Children from Information Advocating for a Denial of Traditional Family Values’, has been used to repress their LTBTQ community is certainly a worrying precedent in that regard.[19]

     

    As Sardorbek Abdukhalilov notes the proposed new constitution no longer has the requirement, set out in Article 38 of the existing constitution, that ‘everyone shall have the right to freely determine and state his/her ethnicity. No one may be forced to determine and state his/her ethnicity’.[20] While recently this requirement has been watered down to allow for the state to place an optional ethnicity section on passports and other forms of ID, there are fears that without such constitutional protection it may become mandatory to state their ethnicity on their ID, despite the provision of the newly proposed Article 1.5 that ‘The people of Kyrgyzstan are citizens of all ethnic groups of the Kyrgyz Republic’.[21] Abdukhalilov separately notes the importance of enforcing existing quotas for minority groups on electoral lists and recommends that similar measures should be brought in to improve diversity in government service and public bodies.

     

    The draft Constitution, in Article 105, would also seem to further consolidate the power of the Prosecutor General’s office. It states that ‘supervision over the accurate and uniform execution of laws and other regulatory legal acts is carried out by the prosecutor’s office of the Kyrgyz Republic’.[22] Adilet have argued that this wording will ‘provide the prosecutors with the right to conduct inspections of citizens, commercial organisations, other economic entities, non-governmental, non-commercial organisations, institutions, enterprises, etc.’ and the power to control or replace other supervisory mechanisms.[23] This consolidation risks creating a tool that could be used even more efficiently to pressurise critics of the Government if effective safeguards are not put in place.

     

    Jasmine Cameron suggests that the new Government of Kyrgyzstan should set out a fresh ‘road map on how to better protect the rights of the vulnerable and marginalised’. Such a plan could include the ‘National Action Plan for the safety of journalists’ with clear procedures and enforcement capacity that Begaim Usenova and ARTICLE 19 recommend. Such a new plan, replacing the Jeenbekov-era 2019-21 National Human Rights Action plan, could enable President Japarov to take personal ownership of such an agenda, and use it as a basis for efforts to reassure his sceptics and critics that he will not abuse the Presidential ‘bully pulpit’ to target them or encourage his supporters to do so. For any human rights road map or action plan to be more than another meaningless piece of paper to distract the international community, it should be authored and owned by the new Government but clearly linked to rights based conditionality around the signing of new partnership agreements, debt relief, new aid to the Government and further investment in infrastructure or economic development.

     

    A number of authors in this collection try to help illuminate who President Japarov is and how he came to power. He has, or at least has been able to craft, a powerful personal story that resonates with a significant section of the public. As Aksana Ismailbekova puts it ‘to understand why people support Japarov, despite his violations of the rule of law, it is important to look at the security strategies of Uzbek businessmen. They have put their trust in someone who is a ‘controversial’ figure, but who also is perceived as having personally experienced the injustice of the law, and is able to show his strength against other strong ‘mafia’ networks. The boundaries of state, business, and criminal have been blurred in the context of Kyrgyzstan.’ So if the popular contention that most politicians in Kyrgyzstan are thieves is true (or at least partially true), it is understandably tempting for people to support the one who portrays himself as Robin Hood rather than someone who insists they are beyond reproach, despite evidence to the contrary.

     

    President Japarov has also tapped into the same well of public concern about instability and a desire for strength or political courage (dukh) that so many populist figures use around the world. This dynamic is particularly relevant in the context of the recent chaos, corruption and lack of capacity in the Kyrgyz state. So it is absolutely understandable for observers, both inside and outside Kyrgyzstan to be concerned but in the absence of a significant deterioration in freedoms (or for those inside the country until new alternatives begin to emerge), there needs to be an attempt to find areas of Japarov’s agenda where common ground can be found, such as holding him to his rhetoric on tackling corruption, while organising and mobilising against emerging issues of concern.[24]

     

    This publication shows that while on the surface the political landscape has changed dramatically since October 2020, in other important respects much has not changed and many of the same trends and forces are at work shaping the situation as they ever have been. The outlook may seem bleak but many of the dark clouds over Kyrgyzstan’s political system have been there for a long time. Kyrgyzstan’s people are resilient but its freedoms are fragile and action must be taken to prevent further backsliding. The Japarov Presidency should be a spur to review, revise and reinvigorate the international community’s engagement with Kyrgyzstan, focused on efforts to tackle corruption, hatred and impunity.

     

    So this publication makes a number of potential recommendations for the international community and the Government of Kyrgyzstan.

     

    Recommendations for the Government of the Kyrgyz Republic, international institutions, Western partners and donors:

    • Ensure a rigorous focus on issues of corruption, hatred and impunity;
    • Undertake a systemic review of international donor funded projects in Kyrgyzstan including budget support, the use of consultancies and working with NGOs. It should look at both objectives and implementation, based on evidence and widespread engagement;
    • Find ways to empower fresh thinking and new voices, while giving partners the space and resources to adapt to local priorities;
    • Encourage the Japarov Government to develop a new and comprehensive National Human Rights Action Plan;
    • Increase human rights and governance conditionality in order to unlock stalled EU and UK partnership agreements, debt relief, further government related aid and new investment;
    • Deploy Magnitsky Sanctions and anti-corruption mechanisms more widely;
    • Expand Kyrgyz language moderation by social media companies and strengthen reporting and redress mechanisms;
    • Push for further amendments to the draft constitution to protect NGOs, trade unions, free speech and minority rights, and avoid increasing the Prosecutor General’s office’s power; and
    • Explore new mechanisms for civic consultation learning from local practices in Kyrgyzstan, consultative bodies in other developing countries and the use of Citizens Assemblies.

     

    Image by Dan Lundberg under (CC).

     

    [1] Channelling the spirit of Dr Martin Luther King Jr. rather than Communist Party of China.

    [2] Ana-Maria Anghelescu, Should Europe Worry About Kyrgyzstan?, The Diplomat, January 2021, https://thediplomat.com/2021/01/should-europe-worry-about-kyrgyzstan/; EEAS, Kyrgyz Republic and the EU, October 2020, https://eeas.europa.eu/delegations/kyrgyz-republic/1397/kyrgyz-republic-and-eu_en; European Commission, Kyrgyzstan, https://ec.europa.eu/international-partnerships/where-we-work/kyrgyzstan_en#:~:text=EU%20bilateral%20development%20cooperation%20with,education%2C%20rural%20development%20and%20investments

    [3] Eurasianet use the Askarov case to highlight the lack of progress made by donor backed rule of law programmes: Eurasianet, Kyrgyzstan: Will fury around Askarov death end up signifying nothing?, July 2020, https://eurasianet.org/kyrgyzstan-will-fury-around-askarov-death-end-up-signifying-nothing

    [4] In conversation with the author.

    [5] This essay notes the English language reporting requirements: Ana-Maria Anghelescu, Should Europe Worry About Kyrgyzstan?, The Diplomat, January 2021, https://thediplomat.com/2021/01/should-europe-worry-about-kyrgyzstan/; As noted in the introduction the top partners for USAID funding are all either US development consultancies, large NGOs or other US agencies: USAID, U.S. Foreign Aid by Country: Kyrgyzstan, 2018, https://explorer.usaid.gov/cd/KGZ?fiscal_year=2018&measure=Obligations

    [6] Factoring in such exercises across the world, much of what can be gleaned will likely show how loosely rooted some (even strongly held) perceptions are in the details of current or past donor activity.

    [7] As well as engaging with past and present users of donor funded services, there should be outreach to the wider public particularly in rural areas.

    [8] Tatyana Kudryavtseva, Germany announces reduction in cooperation with Kyrgyzstan, 24.kg, May 2020, https://24.kg/english/152054_Germany_announces_reduction_in_cooperation_with_Kyrgyzstan/

    [9] Transparency International, Transparency International Uganda, https://www.transparency.org/en/countries/uganda

    [10] COVID response to the druzhinniki who protected businesses from potential rioting to the Bashtan Bashta (start with your head) protest movement, which in recent months has organised creative campaigns against elements of the proposed constitution, to youth engagement in voluntary movements, to religious charity activities, to female solidarity groups, to business structures, and to migrant safety nets

    [11] Dirk van der Kley, COVID and the new debt dynamics of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, Eurasianet, October 2020, https://eurasianet.org/covid-and-the-new-debt-dynamics-of-kyrgyzstan-and-tajikistan

    [12] Though Kyrgyzstan may not have the level of wealth that fuels large scale oligarchic expansion overseas seen in the cases of Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan but it does have some and particularly given the potential links to organised crime these potential pressure points should be on the radar of the international community.

    [13] U.S. Department of the Treasury, Global Magnitsky Designations, September 2020, https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financial-sanctions/recent-actions/20201209

    [14] Foreign & Commonwealth Office and Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office, Guidance: Global Human Rights Sanctions: Information Note for NGOs and Civil Society, Government.uk, July 2020, https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/global-human-rights-sanctions-information-note-for-non-government-organisations-and-others-interested-in-human-rights/global-human-rights-sanctions-information-note-for-ngos-and-civil-society; Foreign & Commonwealth Office and Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office, Policy Paper: Global Human Rights Sanctions: consideration of designations, Government.uk, July 2020, https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/global-human-rights-sanctions-factors-in-designating-people-involved-in-human-rights-violations/global-human-rights-sanctions-consideration-of-targets; Council of the EU, EU adopts a global human rights sanctions regime, December 2020, https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2020/12/07/eu-adopts-a-global-human-rights-sanctions-regime/

    [15] For example: FPC, Finding Britain’s role in a changing world: Project the UK’s values abroad, December 2020, https://fpc.org.uk/publications/projecting-the-uks-values-abroad/; Susan Coughtrie, Unsafe for Scrutiny: Examining the pressures faced by journalists uncovering financial crime and corruption around the world, FPC, November 2020, https://fpc.org.uk/publications/unsafe-for-scrutiny/; FPC, Unsafe for Scrutiny: How the misuse of the UK’s financial and legal systems to facilitate corruption undermines the freedom and safety of investigative journalists around the world, December 2020, https://fpc.org.uk/publications/unsafe-for-scrutiny-12-2020-publication/

    [16] Provided they are able to command a Parliamentary majority and the UK’s first-past-the-post electoral system has led to majority governments for almost all of the democratic era. Even in recent times where that has not been the case, such as the 2010-15 Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition and the 2017-19 Parliament, the Prime Minister and Cabinet still have enormous power and latitude to run the Government as they see fit on an operational basis without reference to Parliament.

    [17] In the US system, where the term originates, the checks are provided by the balancing institutions.

    [18] The Citizen’s Assembly, https://www.citizensassembly.ie/en/

    [19] Human Rights Watch, No Support: Russia’s “Gay Propaganda” Law Imperils LGBT Youth, December 2018, https://www.hrw.org/report/2018/12/11/no-support/russias-gay-propaganda-law-imperils-lgbt-youth

    [20] Constitute, Kyrgyzstan’s Constitution of 2010, constituteproject.org, https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Kyrgyz_Republic_2010.pdf

    [21] Jogorku Kenesh of the Kyrgyz Republic, From November 17, 2020, the draft Law of the Kyrgyz Republic “On the appointment of a referendum (nationwide vote) on the draft Law of the Kyrgyz Republic” On the Constitution of the Kyrgyz Republic”, November 2020, http://www.kenesh.kg/ru/article/show/7324/na-obshtestvennoe-obsuzhdenie-s-17-noyabrya-2020-goda-vinositsya-proekt-zakona-kirgizskoy-respubliki-o-naznachenii-referenduma-vsenarodnogo-golosovaniya-po-proektu-zakona-kirgizskoy-respubliki-o-konstitutsii-kirgizskoy-respubliki (As revised in February 2021)

    [22] Ibid.

    [23] Adilet, Analysis of the draft Constitution of the Kyrgyz Republic, February 2021, https://adilet.kg/tpost/2i09a01nu1-analiz-proekta-konstitutsii-kirgizskoi-r

    [24] Rather than it being used for selective prosecutions and backroom deals as it has in the past

    Footnotes
      Related Articles

      How abusive lawsuits block accountability – and what we can do to fight back

      Article by Charlie Holt

      February 24, 2021

      How abusive lawsuits block accountability – and what we can do to fight back

      Jimmy Savile was first reported to the police in the 1980s.

       

      Harvey Weinstein’s first alleged act of rape was in 1993.

       

      Lance Armstrong faced his first doping allegations in 1998.

       

      It would be comforting to conclude from the above that we’ve got better over time at holding the powerful to account. That journalists have got more incisive, activists have got more organised, whistleblowers have got more discrete.

       

      The painful reality, however, is that it can take decades to hold the rich and powerful to account, even when evidence is plentiful and the crimes in question are considered “open secrets”.[1]

       

      The many victims of benighted “national treasure” Jimmy Savile, of course, were still awaiting accountability when his 7ft gold coffin was being lowered into the ground in November 2011.[2] A lot has been written about how Savile was able to block efforts throughout his life to expose him: his cosy relationship with the political establishment, the seductive power of his celebrity, or his ability to “hide in plain sight”.[3] Those who knew Saville best, however, attribute his ability to evade accountability to a more traditional psychological barrier: fear.

       

      As a former semi-pro wrestler, Jimmy Savile knew a thing or two about inspiring fear in people. As a transcript of a 2009 police interview makes clear, however, Savile didn’t need to rely on his physical presence to intimidate his critics into silence.[4] In the interview, Savile spoke about his “policy” towards those who accused him of sexual abuse: to respond to the allegations with lawsuits. Savile boasted that he had threatened newspapers which had published accusations against him “and not one of them wanted to finish up in court with me so they all settled out of court”. As Savile noted, very few cases actually ever made it to court; most of the time all it took was a legal threat for his accusers to “run away and say ‘shush pay him up’”.

       

      What Savile was describing was something we would now recognise as Strategic Lawsuits Against Public Participation (SLAPPs): abusive lawsuits designed to shut down critical speech. Chances are you’ve never heard of a SLAPP, but you’ll almost certainly be familiar with the way they operate. If you’ve ever watched a documentary, listened to a podcast, or read an essay on large-scale institutional abuse – and the subsequent efforts to expose that abuse – then you’ll recognise the part of the story in which the abuser uses lawsuits to block accountability. It might be the NXIVM cult, the Paradise Papers, child sexual abuse by Catholic priests, or Scientology (L. Ron Hubbard himself once advised that “the law can be used very easily to harass, and enough harassment on somebody… will generally be sufficient to cause his professional decease”).[5] It might be a sexual predator such as Weinstein or a serial cheat such as Armstrong, both of whom used legal threats and lawsuits to block reporting on their wrongdoing (the Sunday Times, which had first raised questions about Armstrong’s performance in 1999, recovered a £300,000 settlement he had taken from the paper in 2004 after Armstrong publicly admitted to doping in 2013).[6]

       

      Whatever abuse of power you choose to look at, the same rule holds true: its exposure is generally preceded by years – and sometimes decades – of legal intimidation.

       

      Of course, most people accept that public participation is an indispensable component of any functioning democracy. How then are those who use SLAPP able to get away with these tactics?

       

      There are three main reasons for the enduring success of SLAPPs, a full understanding of which can help inform the way we respond and build resilience to their use.

       

      First of all, few people know what a ‘SLAPP’ is. When hearing about a civil lawsuit targeting acts of public participation, most people are therefore unlikely to associate this with human rights. In fact, if we’re being honest, they’re most likely to hear the words ‘civil lawsuit’ and switch off altogether. Without an understanding of the implications of SLAPPs on free speech and assembly rights, it is easy for SLAPP filers to frame their legal attack as a bog-standard civil dispute between two ideologically opposing parties.

       

      Second of all, as Savile himself said in the quote above – most of the time, SLAPP filers never actually have to go to court. SLAPPs work by exploiting the imbalance of power between the plaintiff and the defendant. Most of those targeted don’t have the resources, the time, or the legal knowledge to fight off the legal attack. More often than not, therefore, the SLAPP victim will retract the criticism and issue an apology before the matter ever reaches court.

       

      Third of all, SLAPP filers will often take steps to marginalise and discredit their target. Large-scale legal assaults on public watchdogs are frequently accompanied by PR offensives designed to undermine the credibility of the victim. In doing so, the SLAPP filer can attack their target without fear of public backlash. It’s one thing for a corporation to sue an activist or a journalist, for example – it’s quite another thing to sue an ecoterrorist or a propagator of fake news.

       

      If SLAPPs work by isolating the target, however, there’s a straightforward way they can be countered: by building solidarity across civil society. By responding vigorously to the use of SLAPPs against public watchdogs, irrespective of who’s being targeted, NGOs and media organisations can make it clear that such efforts to divide and fragment civil society will not be possible. In the process, civil society groups can work together to address the other two factors underpinning the success of SLAPPs: they can raise awareness of SLAPPs, thereby stripping away the façade of legitimacy the legal process can create, and they can embolden recipients of legal threats to take a stand and resist efforts to bully them into silence.

       

      That’s why anti-SLAPP coalitions have emerged in the USA, France, South Africa – and now continental Europe. In the USA, the Protect the Protest coalition appropriated the old NATO slogan, “an attack on one is an attack on all”, to signal the willingness of coalition members to take action when another coalition member is attacked. We have shamelessly used the same slogan on the front page of our new European coalition website, which will be launched in an online event on 26 March.

       

      Around the world the fortunes of legal bullies are declining in the face of the ever-strengthening solidarity of civil society. If you would like to join the fight, or if you have yourself been victimised by these legal intimidation tactics, the Coalition Against SLAPPs in Europe (CASE) would love to hear from you.

       

      The Coalition Against SLAPPs in Europe (CASE), a new anti-SLAPP website, has now been launched. You can access it here.

       

      Charlie Holt is Legal Counsel for Campaigns at Greenpeace International (GPI). He advises on legal strategy to advance Greenpeace campaign goals and leads the development of GPI’s anti-SLAPP strategy, with a particular focus on SLAPP resilience in the USA and Europe. Greenpeace International is one of over 25 organisations that have formed the Coalition Against SLAPPs in Europe (CASE). Amongst other initiatives, the coalition’s members have drafted a proposed an EU Anti-SLAPP Directive, which was published in December 2020.

       

      [1] Jimmy Savile’s behaviour was ‘open secret’ as early as 1973, The Irish Times, February 2015, https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/jimmy-savile-s-behaviour-was-open-secret-as-early-as-1973-1.2118376#:~:text=Evidence%20from%20Savile’s%20victims%20at,monitoring%20or%20supervision%20in%20place%E2%80%9D

      [2] David Gilbert, Jimmy Saville: National treasure in life, reviled ‘sex abuser’ in death, CNN, January 2013, https://edition.cnn.com/2012/10/23/world/europe/jimmy-savile-profile/index.html

      [3] Saville used his celebrity to ‘hide in plain sight’, itv News, January 2013, https://www.itv.com/news/update/2013-01-11/savile-used-celebrity-to-hide-in-plain-sight/#:~:text=A%20senior%20police%20officer%20today,a%20scale%20never%20seen%20before.

      [4] Ben Quinn, Jimmy Saville: transcripts reveals ‘policy’ used to halt abuse claims, The Guardian, October 2013, https://www.theguardian.com/media/2013/oct/15/jimmy-savile-boasted-police-abuse

      [5] Sarah Berman, What It’s Like to Be Surveilled and Sued by MXIVM, Vice, June 2019, https://www.vice.com/en/article/j5wk88/what-its-like-to-be-surveilled-and-sued-by-nxivm; Business & Human Rights Resources Centre, Appleby lawsuit against BBC & The Guardian (re Paradise Papers), September 2018, https://www.business-humanrights.org/en/appleby-lawsuit-against-bbc-the-guardian-re-paradise-papers; Deena Yellin, ‘I felt abaonded’: Catholic priests turn to defamation lawsuits to fight sex abuse claims, northjersey.com, February 2021, https://eu.northjersey.com/story/news/local/2021/02/09/catholic-priests-turn-defamation-lawsuits-fight-sex-abuse-claims/4163290001/; Edward Helmore, TV ‘exposure’ of Scientology halted by UK libel law split, The Guardian, April 2015, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/apr/18/scientology-tv-exposure-halted-uk-libel-law-split-going-clear; Hugh B. Urban, The Church of Scientology: A History of a New Religion, Princeton University Press, 2011,

      [6] Reuters Staff, Harvey Weinstein threatens to sue New York Times over harassment story, Reuters, October 2017, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-people-harvey-weinstein-idUKKBN1CA2JX; Lance Armstrong ‘agrees Sunday Times settlement’, BBC Sport, August 2013, https://www.bbc.com/sport/cycling/23830777; Richard Sandomir, Armstrong is suing accuser, New York Times, June 2004, https://www.nytimes.com/2004/06/16/sports/cycling-armstrong-is-suing-accuser.html

       

      This article was produced as part of the Unsafe for Scrutiny project, which is kindly funded by the Justice for Journalists Foundation.

      Footnotes
        Related Articles

        Unsafe for Scrutiny: Russian anti-corruption protests, ‘historic’ US anti-money laundering legislation, ‘Chumocracy’ and threats to freedom of information in the UK

        Article by Susan Coughtrie

        February 10, 2021

        Unsafe for Scrutiny: Russian anti-corruption protests, ‘historic’ US anti-money laundering legislation, ‘Chumocracy’ and threats to freedom of information in the UK

        As part of our Unsafe for Scrutiny project, the Foreign Policy Centre (FPC) is starting a new series of fortnightly articles focused on topics at the intersection of anti-corruption and safety of journalists. Featuring journalists as well as media freedom and anti-corruption experts, the series will provide insider perspectives on emerging issues or developing events. To launch the series, Susan Coughtrie, Unsafe for Scrutiny’s Project Director, rounds up what has already been an eventful couple of months since the release of FPC’s Unsafe for Scrutiny report in December 2020.

         

        Unsafe for Scrutiny: Russian anti-corruption protests, ‘historic’ US anti-money laundering legislation, ‘Chumocracy’ and threats to freedom of information in the UK

         

        It has been a mere two months since the release of FPC’s December report, which highlights how the misuse of the UK’s financial and legal systems to facilitate corruption undermines the freedom and safety of investigative journalists around the world. Yet in that relatively short space of time there have been several developments on both sides of the Atlantic pertinent to the FPC’s focus on issues at the nexus of safety of journalists and anti-corruption. These have served to place a renewed spotlight on the actions, or inaction, of the UK Government that has an impact both domestically and abroad. Below is round up of key stories and why they matter:

         

        • Russia: Navalny’s revelations, anti-corruption protests and attacks on journalists
        • UK: Exposure of London firms supporting corrupt figures and a planned ‘crackdown’ on formation agents
        • UK: The ‘rise of Chumocracy’ in the time of COVID and the need to protect freedom of information
        • US: ‘Historic’ anti-money laundering legislation, overturned sanctions and Trump’s Scottish UWO challenge
        • End Notes: Strategic Litigation against Public Participation (SLAPPS) and the impact on journalists

         

        Russia: Navalny’s revelations, anti-corruption protests and attacks on journalists

        The decision by Alexei Navalny, Russian opposition leader and anti-corruption campaigner, to return to his homeland in January 2021, five months after an almost successful assassination attempt, was always going to be provocative. Few would have been surprised at his swift arrest upon arrival, particularly after Navalny, together with investigative news outlets Bellingcat and The Insider, published reports implicating Russian Federal Security Bureau (FSB) agents in his poisoning.[1] What was not as predictable was the scale of the mass protests in response not only to his arrest but also the release of an almost two hour YouTube video entitled ‘Putin’s palace. History of world’s largest bribe.’[2] Posted on 19 January 2021, with its host already detained, Navalny’s video alleges that Putin, through personal and business connections, laundered money to build an extravagant palace on the Black Sea estimated to be worth over a billion USD. To date, the video has over 110 million views, with independent pollsters at the Levada Centre estimating that at least 1 in 4 Russians have watched it.[3]

         

        Those who have taken to the streets across the country since 23 January have been met with violence and mass arrests, including independent media. The Justice for Journalists Foundation (JFJ), which kindly supports FPC’s Unsafe for Scrutiny project, have documented what they describe as “unprecedented repressions” against media during the protests. JFJ recorded 195 incidents of detentions and arrests of professional and citizen journalists between 16 January and 3 February 2021.[4] Their report notes: “the clearly marked PRESS vests, editorial tasks and press cards served as a reason for the journalists’ detention, rather than their protection from the police and the riot units (OMON).” The already dire situation for media freedom and safety of journalists in the country was powerfully outlined by Dmitry Velikovsky, Russian investigative journalist working for iStories, in his contribution to FPC’s December report – Investigative journalism in today’s Russia, and why the UK’s stance could actually make a difference.[5]

         

        Several UK MPs have responded to the recent events in Russia by calling on the UK Government to “rapidly impose sanctions on individuals responsible for ordering, conducting and aiding human rights abuses against peaceful protestors, journalists, citizens and opposition politicians in Russia.”[6] While the UK introduced ‘Magnitsky’ style sanctions last July, and utilised them in October against those alleged to be involved in Navalny’s poisoning, they have yet to be extended to cover corruption.[7]

         

        However, the UK can make a significant difference by actively shutting down avenues within its jurisdiction for money laundering by corrupt political elites. On 25 January 2021, the Director General of the National Economic Crime Centre, Graeme Biggar, described the ‘disturbing’ prevalence of Russian money being laundered in London.[8] This is a fact that has already been well documented by successive journalistic investigations. Moreover given this was a key finding of the ‘Russia Report’ published by the UK Parliament’s Intelligence and Security Committee (ISC) in July 2020, the UK’s Government’s action to delay the release of the report, and its subsequent inaction to follow up, could perhaps be described as equally ‘disturbing’.[9]

         

        UK: Exposure of London firms supporting corrupt figures and a planned ‘crackdown’ on formation agents

        The role that UK firms have played in enabling corrupt figures has again hit the news recently. Highlighted in ISC’s Russia Report as “a growth industry of ‘enablers’ including lawyers, accountants, and estate agents,” these services are utilised beyond those tied to Russia. On 1 February 2021, OCCRP together with The Sarawak Report published a joint investigation revealing the role that London firm Henley & Partners played in obtaining a Cypriot passport for disgraced financier Jho Low, who stands accused of stealing billions from Malaysia’s sovereign wealth fund 1MDB.[10] Their investigation reveals that, despite identifying Low as a high-risk client with political exposure, Henley & Partners continued to assist him utilising a Cypriot company as an intermediary. Less than a week later, the US Department of Justice (DoJ) served an arrest warrant to London law firm Clyde & Co to recoup what are believed to be the proceeds of the 1MBD scandal, held in their accounts on behalf a client.[11]

         

        The ease with which those accused of corruption are able to access a wide number of services is strongly contrasted by the challenges faced by journalists trying to expose their wrongdoing. Clare Rewcastle Brown, founder of The Sarawak Report, described in her article for FPC – A scandal of corruption and censorship: Uncovering the 1MDB case in Malaysia – the incredible amount of harassment she has faced including surveillance, smear campaigns and digital hacking on top of significant legal challenges. Ultimately, Rewcastle Brown’s reporting led to the downfall of the former Malaysian Prime Minister, Najib Razak, who is now in prison and Low is currently on the run from justice in Malaysia, Singapore and the US. The importance of her work clearly speaks for itself, and underscores the need to ensure the protection of journalists from all forms of threat and harassment.

         

        In positive news, however, the National Crime Agency (NCA) has announced this month its intention to ‘crackdown’ on trust and company service providers, otherwise referred to as formation agents of which there are more than 20,000 in the UK.[12] The NCA stated its concern that “in some cases, formation providers may be complicit in illegality, or at least may be operating in breach of anti-money- laundering laws”. The use of anonymous shell companies in UK jurisdictions for illegal activities was touched on in two essays for FPC by journalists who face significant challenges when attempting to ‘follow the money’: in Chișinău to London: A story about big money and small information by Alina Radu, Editor in Chief of Moldovan investigative news outlet Ziarul de Garda; and Tracking corruption from the heart of Europe to UK Overseas Territories: murder, death threats and a wall of silence, by Slovak investigative journalist Peter Sabo from news outlet Aktuality.sk and Pavla Holcová, founder of the Czech independent outlet Investigace.cz.

         

        While the NCA’s announcement is a step in the right direction there has to date been a persistent ‘enforcement gap’ in the UK in terms of tackling financial crime and corruption. As Ben Cowdock and Rachel Davis Teka from Transparency International UK pointed out in their article for FPC – How UK anti-corruption groups work with journalists to push for change – this has been in part due to limited resources invested in the relevant authorities. It is not yet clear what the NCA’s plans will look like and with parallel reforms to Companies House slow to be implemented there is still a way to go before any impact is felt. As Cowdock and Davis Teka have argued this makes the role of journalists, who have both specialist expertise both in how the UK’s financial systems facilitate this corruption as well as the contextual situations in countries around the world, so vital.

         

        UK: The ‘rise of Chumocracy’ in the time of COVID and the need to protect freedom of information

        During the COVID pandemic, the UK Government’s response has been beset by allegations of cronyism frequently described as ‘chumocracy’. A joint investigation published last week by The Byline Times and The Citizens revealed: “Government contracts worth £881 million have been awarded to individuals who have donated a total of £8.2 million to the Conservative Party in recent years.”[13] Greater transparency around decision-making and the handling of the COVID response is crucial not least to improve public confidence, both in the health measures put in place as well as how taxpayers’ money has been spent, particularly at a time of economic hardship for many.

         

        Yet the pandemic has also raised concerns regarding the UK Government’s own attitude to journalists, which were encapsulated by Index on Censorship’s Jessica Ní Mhainín in her piece for the FPC – The UK and media freedom: An urgent need to lead by example. In 2020, journalists from at least four media outlets were denied access to a government briefing in February, a journalist was banned from asking questions at a government press briefing in May, and in September the media outlet Declassified was blacklisted by the Ministry of Defence, for which it later received an apology.[14]

         

        Media outlet openDemocracy has since launched a petition with a view to taking legal action against the UK Government for what they describe as “a secretive unit inside Michael Gove’s Cabinet Office that’s been accused of ‘blacklisting’ journalists and blocking the release of ‘sensitive’ information.”[15] This week their initiative received the backing of editors across Fleet Street, who in a rare show of unity signed openDemocracy’s public letter calling for MPs to urgently investigate the British government’s handling of Freedom of Information (FOI) requests.[16] Amongst the signatories is The Times Editor John Witherow, who commented: “Transparency is not a privilege or a gift bequeathed to a grateful citizenry by a benign government. It is a fundamental right of a free people to be able to see and scrutinise the decisions made on their behalf.”

         

        However, another potential threat to the application of was seen off last week as a tribunal ruled against limiting access to the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) 2000 to UK citizens living in the UK.[17] The ruling came after several appeals from journalists based outside the UK, including one British citizen based in Hong Kong, had been refused access to information. A barrister representing one of the journalists stated after the ruling that “Journalists, individuals and organisations outside the UK play a crucial role in ensuring transparency and fighting misinformation, both in the UK and more widely. The FOIA, for all its challenges, is key to that.”

         

        US: ‘Historic’ anti-money laundering legislation, overturned sanctions and Trump’s Scottish UWO challenge

        The US has experienced a rollercoaster couple of months as outgoing President Donald Trump refused to accept that he was on the way out. Perhaps slightly overlooked in an already crowded news agenda was the approval of the Anti-Money Laundering Act of 2020, which has been described as “the most comprehensive set of reforms to the anti-money laundering (‘AML’) laws in the United States since the USA PATRIOT Act was passed in 2001.”[18] The move has been hailed as a ‘historic’ development by anti-corruption campaigners like Transparency International.[19] Amongst other measures, it introduces requirements to provide information about beneficial ownership putting an end to the practice of anonymous shell companies operating inside the country. Depending on how quickly this is implemented, it could see the US overtake efforts made by the UK to introduce similar limits on anonymous beneficial ownership.

         

        However, in one of his last acts as President, Trump, who has himself long been dogged by corruption allegations, lifted the sanctions against Israeli businessman Dan Gertler that had been in place since 2017.[20] An investigation published in the summer of 2020 by Global Witness and the Platform for the Protection of Whistleblowers in Africa (PPLAAF) into a suspected international money laundering network that seemingly allowed Gertler continue his dealings in Africa despite the previous sanctions, resulted in both organisations being subject to various forms of intimidation including online harassment and legal challenges.[21] There have already been appeals to President Biden to reinstate the sanctions against Gertler. Biden’s administration indicated even before entering office that cracking down on illicit finance at home and abroad would be a top priority.[22]

         

        Meanwhile Trump has faced down perhaps one of his more surprising challenges this month as MSPs debated whether Trump’s local business interests in Scotland should be investigated through an Unexplained Wealth Order (UWO), but ultimately voted to reject the motion.[23]

         

        End Notes: Strategic Litigation against Public Participation (SLAPPS)

        Last but not least, the FPC’s Unsafe for Scrutiny project has been increasing its focus on vexatious legal threats often referred to as strategic litigation against public participation (SLAPPs). Legal threats came out as the main concern in FPC’s global survey of 63 investigative journalists in 41 countries last year. The survey findings, published in November 2020, also pointed to the UK as the leading source of international legal threats.

         

        Following on from the European Centre for Press and Media Freedom’s (ECPMF) essay on The increasing rise, and impact, of SLAPPs: Strategic Lawsuits Against Public Participation, a short explainer on SLAPPs and the impact on journalists is now accessible on FPC’s website here.

         

        For those who enjoy podcasts, I spoke with Lana Estemirova host of the ‘Trouble with the Truth’ podcast about ‘SLAPPs, corruption and dirty money: how UK firms help silence investigative journalism’ released on 25 January 2021, which is available to listen to here.

         

        [1] Bellingcat Investigative Team, FSV Team of Chemical Weapon Experts Implicated in Alexey Navalny Novichok Poisoning, Bellingcat, December 2020, https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2020/12/14/fsb-team-of-chemical-weapon-experts-implicated-in-alexey-navalny-novichok-poisoning/; Laboratory. How FSB NII-2 employees tried to poison Alexei Navalny, The insider, December 2020, https://theins.ru/politika/237705

        [2] Alexey Navalny, Putin’s palace. History of world’s largest bribe, YouTube, January 2021, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ipAnwilMncI

        [3] Film “Palace for Putin”, Levada Centre, February 2021, https://www.levada.ru/2021/02/08/film-dvorets-dlya-putina/

        [4] Unprecedented repressions against Russian professional and citizen journalists, Justice for Journalists, February 2021, https://jfj.fund/unprecedented-repressions-against-russian-professional-and-citizen-journalists/

        [5] I-Stories, https://istories.media/en/

        [6] Democracy, human rights and the detention of Alexei Navalny, EDM 1390: tabled on 25 January 2021, UK Parliament, https://edm.parliament.uk/early-day-motion/58006/democracy-human-rights-and-the-detention-of-alexei-navalny-in-russia

        [7] Catherine Philp, Alexei Navalny: Putin’s inner circle sanctioned over novichok attack, The Times, October 2020, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/alexei-navalny-putins-inner-circle-sanctioned-over-novichok-attack-zsmhx66ff

        [8] Stefan Boscia, Top official warns of ‘disturbing’ amount of Russian money laundering in UK, City a.m., January 2021, https://www.cityam.com/top-official-warns-of-disturbing-amount-of-russian-money-laundering-in-uk/

        [9] Intelligence and Security Committee of Parliament, Russia, Independent.gov.uk, 2020, https://docs.google.com/a/independent.gov.uk/viewer?a=v&pid=sites&srcid=aW5kZXBlbmRlbnQuZ292LnVrfGlzY3xneDo1Y2RhMGEyN2Y3NjM0OWFl

        [10] OCCRP and Sarawak Report, A Key Plater in Malaysia’s Biggest-Ever Corruption Scandal Found Sanctuary in Cyprus With Help From a Major London Firm, OCCRP, February 2021, https://www.occrp.org/en/investigations/a-key-player-in-malaysias-biggest-ever-corruption-scandal-found-sanctuary-in-cyprus-with-help-from-a-major-london-firm

        [11] Harry Davies, Warrant served on UK law firm over alleged 1MBD assets, The Guardian, February 2021, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/07/arrest-warrant-served-on-uk-law-firm-over-alleged-1mdb-assets?

        [12] James Hurley, Formation agents facing crackdown over organised crime links, The Times, February 2021, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/formation-agents-facing-crackdown-over-organised-crime-links-0vfdhn3k6

        [13] Byline Times and The Citizens, The Crony Ration: £800 million in COVID contracts to donors who have given £8 million to Conservatives, Byline Times, February 2021, https://bylinetimes.com/2021/02/05/crony-ratio-conservative-donations-government-coronavirus-contracts/

        [14] Charlotte Tobitt, MoD apologises after press office refused to engage with Declassified journalists, PressGazette, September 2020, https://www.pressgazette.co.uk/mod-apologises-after-press-office-refused-to-engage-with-declassified-journalists/

        [15] Stop the secrecy: save our Freedom of Information, openDemocacy, https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/save-our-foi/

        [16] Mary Fitzgerald and Peter Geoghegan, Fleet Street editors unite to demand ‘urgent’ action on Freedom of Information, openDemocacy, February 2021, https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/fleet-street-editors-demand-urgent-action-to-protect-freedom-of-information/

        [17] Bill Goodwin, ‘Victory for free speech and openness’ after tribunal confirms no territorial restrictions to FOIA, ComputerWeekly.com, February 2021, https://www.computerweekly.com/news/252495653/Victory-for-free-speech-and-openness-after-tribunal-confirms-no-territorial-restrictions-to-FOIA

        [18] The Top 10 Takeaways for Financial Institutions from the Anti-Money Laundering Act of 2020, Gibson Dunn, January 2021, https://www.gibsondunn.com/the-top-10-takeaways-for-financial-institutions-from-the-anti-money-laundering-act-of-2020/

        [19] Richard Hall, US passes ‘historic’ anti-corruption law that effectively bans anonymous shell companies, Independent, January 2021, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-passes-historic-anti-corruption-legislation-that-effectively-bans-anonymous-shell-companies-b1781380.html

        [20] Peter Fabricius, Magnitsky Act: Departing Trump lifted US sanctions against controversial Israeli businessman Dan Gertler, Daily Maverick, January 2021, https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2021-01-24-departing-trump-lifted-us-sanctions-against-controversial-israeli-businessman-dan-gertler/

        [21] Intimidation and scare tactics won’t work on us – we will continue to demand real action to bring greater transparency to DRC’s mining sector, Global Witness, July 2020, https://www.globalwitness.org/en/blog/intimidation-and-scare-tactics-wont-work-on-us-we-will-continue-to-demand-real-action-to-bring-greater-transparency-to-drcs-mining-sector/

        [22] Amy Mackinnon, Biden Expected to Put the World’s Kleptocrats on Notice, Foreign Policy, December 2020, https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/03/biden-kleptocrats-dirty-money-illicit-finance-crackdown/

        [23] MSPs reject calls for probe into Donald Trump golf courses, BBC News, February 2021, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-55912670

         

        This article was produced as part of the Unsafe for Scrutiny project, which is kindly funded by the Justice for Journalists Foundation.

        Footnotes
          Related Articles

          Saving the Red-eye to Ibiza: How vaccine corridors can open up travel again

          Article by Professor Amelia Hadfield and Christian Turner

          February 8, 2021

          Saving the Red-eye to Ibiza: How vaccine corridors can open up travel again

          On January 31st 2021, Britain marked one full year of its first-known case of COVID-19. Since then, both the economy and key industries, including aviation have been decimated.

           

          From February 2020, a number of countries began the slow march to restrict or close their borders, although Europe would take only limited action during the first wave between March-May. The EU would eventually impose a cross-member state approach, allowing in travellers from just eight countries without the need for quarantine. Britain then brought in border measures in June by way of its ‘travel corridor’ list: – a ‘green list’ and ‘red list’ of countries where the former allowed for leisure travel and the latter resulted in a mandatory quarantine, apart from key workers.

           

          Border control: from slow burn to radical measures

          From mid-January 2021, these measures have been radically stepped up by the British Government. At this point, the British Government requires a negative test 72 hours prior to arriving for all travellers arriving from all countries.[1] Travellers – whether UK citizens or not – arriving from ‘red list’ countries (primarily southern Africa, South America and Portugal) will be routed to mandatory hotel quarantine from February 15th.[2]

           

          The recent tightening of measures by the British Government, echoed by governments across Europe as well as Canada and the USA, is not necessarily a reflection of lessons learned, but rather a hurried response to the emergence of a host of new variants of the COVID-19 virus now threatening to increase the burden on already overstretched healthcare systems. It is worth highlighting that the travel restrictions recently adopted by many Western nations including Britain have been in use for nearly a year in parts of Asia and Oceania that have achieved ‘COVID zero’ – the near-elimination of the prevalence of the virus through initially strict restrictions and long-term border closures. Australia and New Zealand are exemplars in this respect. Yet, for European nations including Britain, wholesale travel restrictions such as these are still a relatively new tool in the anti-COVID arsenal.

           

          Aviation woes

          For the global aviation industry, a bruising year of 2020 now threatens to turn cataclysmic. In the UK, projections by Heathrow Airport predicted a scenario in which fully half of the estimated 135,000 employees that rely on the output of this unique economic municipality would lose their jobs in 2021.[3] Gatwick Airport announced plans to reduce its workforce by around a third in the summer of 2020, with over 80 per cent of staff on furlough in July 2020.[4] Yet, these predictions and announcement were made in September 2020, prior to the introduction of mandatory testing on arrival and hotel quarantines.

           

          These and other acute pressures on the sector are only increasing and if 2020 can be considered disastrous, 2021 threatens to be cataclysmic the longer these restrictions are maintained. Whilst the UK Government has extended measures to assist businesses of all kind including the furlough scheme and various forms of financial support (mainly in the form of loans and grants), it is clear that the aviation sector will require its own unique measures if it is to survive. There have been suggestions of suspending business rates on airports and Passenger Air Duty as a means of alleviating some pressure and creating the potential for growth.[5]

           

          Vaccine corridors

          Of course, the stringent travel measures recently introduced in January 2021 are ironically part of the evolving landscape of recovery in which the hope of slow but steady nation-wide vaccine rollout has begun. On January 29th, the fifth vaccine ordered by the UK – manufactured by Johnson and Johnson – revealed positive efficacy results on its one-jab application, further increasing hope that the UK will achieve its objective of vaccinating the entire adult population by September 2021.[6] The UK has already achieved some success with its existing vaccine rollout, heavily dependent on Pfizer and AstraZeneca. The Government’s goal is to achieve (or at least come very close) to vaccinating the four most vulnerable categories by February 15th 2021, an estimated 15 million individuals who will have a high degree of immunity to the virus from the first of two jabs.[7]

           

          In the EU, the region-wide rollout has descended from turf wars between the European Commission and the 27 Member States to an outright cage fight, with AstraZeneca initially announcing it would deliver around 31 million dosages when compared to the pre-contracted 80 million doses promised  in the first quarter of 2021. The AstraZeneca announcement came hard on the heels of Pfizer’s own announcement of a temporary reduction in output of its long-term production capacity and delays from Moderna. The EU – already lagging behind the UK, the USA and Canada in approving these three vaccines – was under severe pressure. It attempted to take the initiative with an export register that would force companies to inform the European Commission of the amount of vaccine dosages leaving the bloc.

           

          This threatened to backfire spectacularly when at the end of January Commission President Ursula Von Der Leyen hastily announced the EU would resort to Article 16 of the EU-UK trade deal and impose a de facto vaccine border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. Within hours, Von Der Leyen was forced into a humiliating U-turn as criticism poured in from across the EU, as well as the Republic of Ireland, Northern Ireland, as well as the British Government. Slowly, as tempers subsided, positives began to emerge, with AstraZeneca confirming it will deliver around nine million dosages more than it its initial forecast, and Pfizer confirming an additional 75 million dosages in the second quarter.

           

          Across the Atlantic, the new Biden administration has promised to deliver at least 100 million jabs in 100 days in the USA, whilst Israel looks set to be the first country in the world to fully vaccinate its adult population. As vaccine immunity grows slowly in each country, in particular amongst those most susceptible to the virus, comes the hope that travel restrictions could lessen. Unfortunately, the dangers of new and potential virus variants mean that a complete revocation is unlikely, especially as most of Africa and parts of Asia look unlikely to be able to carry out any meaningful vaccinations this year.

           

          Yet, for states that have carried out sufficient vaccination comes the prospect of vaccine corridors. In essence, this would build on the UK Government’s travel corridors concept launched in June and requires both of the ‘corridor nations’ to be sufficiently protected from COVID-19 to the extent that travellers would not be a health risk as they currently may be. This would likely involve a common approach to managing borders, namely in the shape of uniform and severe restrictions on third countries that have not been vaccinated, or are struggling with high cases, or where a new variant has provably emerged. This unanimity in external border measures has been found wanting in this last year both between and within states, but the vaccination programme presents a new hope.

           

          In practice, these travel corridors would likely involve a small number of countries forming a collective bubble to allow some ‘normality’ of travel to return this summer. It would likely be comprised of mostly Western nations, such as the EU member states, the UK, USA, Canada and parts of the Middle East, with the eventual possibility of opening up to more countries as the vaccine rollout accelerates.

           

          Implemented intelligently, things may begin to change, albeit slowly. For the aviation industry, any change is surely welcome, allowing airports to revive and plan to start flying again. For some ports and carriers, it may all come too late. For others, vaccine corridors may well alleviate the acute economic crisis or the sector and catalyse the path to a post-COVID world. However, the sheer organisation involved requires far more, and far better cooperation and partnership between governments, something that vaccine nationalism has unfortunately thrown into reverse, even if the production of COVID vaccines is testament to the cooperative qualities of transnational research. Operable and effective vaccine corridors will most importantly involve sacrifice, requires common-sense and demand robust protocols that are stringent and nimble in application. At a time when so little hope has prevailed, these options promise a return to mobility – a freedom that we all have taken for granted until very recently.

           

          Professor Amelia Hadfield is the Head of the Department of Politics at the University of Surrey, and Co-Director of the Jean Monnet Centre for Britain and Europe (CBE), as well as Dean International.

           

          Christian Turner is a graduate of Canterbury Christ Church University and the University of Kent, and a Junior Fellow of the CBE working on EU-UK foreign and security issues.

           

          Image by U.S. Secretary of Defense under (CC).

           

          [1] Department for Transport and Robert Courts MP, International travel update, 11 January 2021, Gov.uk, January 2021, https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/international-travel-update-11-january-2021

          [2] Erenie Mullens-Burgess and Sarah Nickson, Hotel quarantine, Institute for Government, February 2021, https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/hotel-quarantine

          [3] Charting Surrey’s Post-COVID Rescue, Recovery and Growth, University of Surrey, November 2020, p.148, https://www.surrey.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2020-11/charting-surreys-post-covid-rescue-recovery-and-growth.pdf

          [4] Ibid p.140

          [5] Ibid, p.203

          [6] The other vaccines as ordered by the United Kingdom that have reported phase 3 trial results are Pfizer/BioNTech, AstraZeneca/University of Oxford, Moderna and Novavax.

          [7] UK COVID-19 vaccines delivery plan, Department of Health & Social Care, January 2021, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/951928/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan-final.pdf; These four groups are residents and workers in care homes; those over the age of 80 and frontline workers; those over the age of 75; and those over the age of 70 and clinically extremely vulnerable individuals.

          Footnotes
            Related Articles

            Western focus on Navalny risks missing the bigger picture

            Article by Dr Alex Folkes

            January 25, 2021

            Western focus on Navalny risks missing the bigger picture

            Russian opposition activist Alexey Navalny’s return to Russia after his poisoning and subsequent jailing has elevated him in the eyes of the Western powers and he has become the number one topic for Russia watchers. This past weekend we have seen demonstrations that are huge by Russian standards across the country. But there is a significant risk that his treatment, albeit egregious, will detract attention from many other issues of concern and may therefore play into the hands of the Kremlin’s rulers.

             

            That forces of the Russian state poisoned Alexey Navalny is not in dispute by anyone except the Russians themselves. The Kafka-esque way in which he has been treated since he returned – jailed on charges of breaching his parole because he left the country to be treated for the poisoning whilst in a coma – is a clear attempt by the Kremlin to keep him out of the limelight.

             

            The siloviki – the Russian state security chiefs – have always believed that if you deny an opponent the oxygen of publicity then that is enough. Their first choice would have been for Navalny to stay overseas where he could be ignored by state media. The label of ‘puppet of the West’ that has been given to him by those in charge could then have had more staying power with their primary domestic audience. And like Boris Berezovsky and Andrey Borodin before him, Navalny could speak to the western media all he wanted whilst having little traction in his home country. Belarus opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya may have bucked the trend somewhat in continuing to have influence, but she has a different status having contested and likely won the Presidential election there. Even in her case, her influence is waning. Navalny has been excluded from any ballot since the 2013 Moscow mayoralty poll and so does not have the same credibility to act as a ‘leader in exile’.

             

            The decision to return to Russia fits with Navalny’s personality. Like Tikhanovskaya, he isn’t a pro-Western politician, although he clearly has more sympathy for western mores than the current President. Many European leaders have been reluctant to get too close to him because of his past statements, which aligned strongly with Russian nationalism. Western allies in Georgia and Ukraine will be the first to say that my enemy’s enemy is not necessarily my friend. More recently, however, he has transformed himself into an anti-corruption activist and shed many of the views which accord less well with western sensibilities.

             

            Having returned to Russia, the Kremlin is seeking to marginalise Navalny. His initial 30-day detention will certainly be upgraded to a full prison sentence and he will be shuffled off to some remote penal colony. Navalny and his supporters have campaigning opportunities even without their figurehead – the release of the video of Putin’s palace was cleverly timed. The protests will have come as a shock to authorities because they were spread so widely across the country. The question is whether they can be repeated on a regular basis. No one except Navalny himself appears to have the charisma to lead the movement, and it is clear the authorities will continue to arrest alternative leaders and harass the foot soldiers into silence. Many may find themselves forced into internal exile.[1]

             

            Navalny does not need to be on a ballot paper to have influence. In the 2018 presidential election, he was banned from standing and so his teams attempted to run a boycott campaign, but this was met by police raids on their headquarters and frequent arrests. As is common in post-Soviet Russian elections, shadow candidates were put forward to draw the attention and commitment of the those inclined to campaign against the existing regime. TV personality Ksenia Sobchak was chosen as a candidate. Despite her being the daughter of Putin’s St Petersburg mentor, she succeeded in drawing away many young activists who might otherwise have been part of the Navalny campaign. She mentioned a number of liberal causes in her messaging that guaranteed she would be considered real by those who backed her, but also that she would gather few votes in conservative Russia. And the police played their part by harassing her supporters just enough to persuade them that they were really fighting the system.

             

            Such tactics might be a bit more difficult to carry off in the Duma elections scheduled for later this year. Navalny has modified his campaigning so that he is no longer advocating a boycott, but instead he runs a so-called ‘smart voting campaign’ for whichever candidate is most likely to defeat the Kremlin’s United Russia party. They have had successes in regional polls in 2019 and 2020 thanks to the historically unpopular state of United Russia, commanding the support of fewer than one in three voters according to independent polls. Smart voting has clearly worried the Kremlin enough that it has created sufficient new parties, which back the President so that they can pick and choose which to endorse at the last minute. This cat and mouse strategy would confuse the voters if we believed that what the voters thought or voted for actually made much of a difference.

             

            In the absence of their leader, the smart voting campaign will continue, but may be a bit less successful. Meanwhile, as Alexander Baunov of Carnegie Moscow Center notes, Navalny has been elevated to the rank of the number one political prisoner in the world.[2] The West’s attention is fixated on a single opposition figure and the heat, relatively, is off a number of other topics. There may be the threat of further sanctions, but it is difficult to imagine who might be in line given the policy of seeking to sanction those most responsible for a particular event. In this case, Russian authorities will point to the due process of the courts and say that Navalny is a criminal who is serving a sentence properly conferred, no matter that the ECHR has ruled the offences for which Navalny has been jailed to be an abuse of process. The Russian state has, and will continue, to deny absolutely that its forces had anything to do with the poisoning. Bellingcat and Navalny himself have proved that to be a fiction, but it is unlikely that the siloviki will be hugely bothered if they are added to a sanctions list.

             

            Once the Duma elections are out of the way, it is entirely possible that President Putin will seek a reset with the West, at least a marginal one. Despite the Navalny poisoning, President Biden wishes to go ahead with a full five-year renewal of the New START treaty. This is a quick win for the new leader and one to which Putin will readily agree, having offered such to Trump. There are any number of other options open to Biden and his opposite number will hope he takes them. But the current attention on Navalny may be a major stumbling block. However, if the West gets fixated only on one issue – albeit an egregious one – then longer-term concerns such as Ukraine, the South Caucasus and Georgia may be forgotten. After the New START treaty is extended, it is in the area of arms control that further rapprochement might be most likely.

             

            It may be that President Putin was preparing to use Navalny’s imprisonment as a bargaining chip to secure relaxation of some of the sanctions, which are having a real impact on Russia’s struggling economy. In the light of the protests, this may no longer seem to be such a wise move and he will want to see what impact the state media labelling of Navalny as a foreign agent under the control of the CIA has on his opponent’s popularity before putting him forward as a bargaining chip. But it would not be wise for the US to think that securing Navalny’s release is the beginning of the end of Putin.

             

            The Kremlin craves attention and for Russia to be treated with the deference they feel they deserve as a superpower. With Russia and the US the only countries holding enough nuclear firepower to destroy the world, any nuclear deal has to focus on those nations first and foremost. Other states, even China, can only sit on the sidelines if they appear at all. Any arms deal therefore necessitates giving Putin the all-star treatment and may allow for some limited agreements in other areas too. That is not to suggest that the West should roll over, as President Trump often seemed to wish, nor give away the shop over Crimea in an attempt to appease. A deal on nuclear weapons or anything else has to be the right one on its own merits. But by recognising the Russian leader as a key figure, it might just lessen some of the attention seeking interference that has been at the forefront of Russian foreign policy in recent years. That means recognising Navalny, his poisoning and imprisonment as a key issue but not the only one in US-Russian relations.

             

            Image by Michał Siergiejevicz under (CC).

             

            [1] Navalny Allies, Jailed, Fined as Russia Vows Protest Crackdown, The Moscow Times, January 2021, https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/01/22/navalny-allies-jailed-fined-as-russia-vows-crackdown-on-protests-a72697; Marc Bennetts, Putin opponent Ruslan Shaveddinov tells court of life exiled on Arctic base, The Times, July 2020, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/putin-opponent-ruslan-shaveddinov-tells-court-of-life-exiled-on-arctic-base-6qrm656qj

             

            [2] Alexander Baunov, Putin, Poison, and Self-Inflicted Wounds: Navalny’s Return to Russia, Carnegie Moscow Center, January 2021, https://carnegie.ru/commentary/83680?utm_source=ctw&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=buttonlink&mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTkRNek9EZ3lZbU5rTW1ZNSIsInQiOiJiXC9VdTMyQTdUUWxlVHNTUzZPRG1PbkJnZ2NUa04wa3BOYkZqWlBLd2pvcE9QN2lPbUlUOXhHb3EwTjN6TTVXaDZYQzhES29md1VDbHlpbkhuanpMNXlCNnhCdlNGNzJsODZ6THNKVVRcL3o4R3dDM3RrVlIrNlBldlZoanBoWUk1In0%3D

            Footnotes
              Related Articles

              Looking ahead to the CDU conference: The changing face of Germany’s centre right

              Article by Dr Ed Turner

              January 14, 2021

              Looking ahead to the CDU conference: The changing face of Germany’s centre right

              This Friday and Saturday will see the twice-delayed Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) party conference finally take place virtually. On the Saturday a leader to replace Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (colloquially known as AKK) will be elected. AKK’s time as leader was not a happy one, and she stepped down after being unable to assert her authority over the CDU’s state party in Thuringia, where its parliamentarians had voted with the far-right Alternative for Germany on the choice of a new Minister President there.

               

              Yet since AKK stepped down, much has changed, making the conference unpredictable. Three candidates were quickly out of the blocks: Armin Laschet, the Minister President of North Rhine Westphalia, Norbert Röttgen, Chair of the Bundestag’s Foreign Affairs Committee, and Friedrich Merz, one-time parliamentary leader of the CDU and AKK’s opponent in 2018, only losing very narrowly after a notably poor speech. Laschet was endorsed by AKK’s other opponent of 2018, Federal Health Minister Jens Spahn. Yet since then, COVID-19 has had a profound impact on the respective fortunes of the runners and riders. Laschet has had a pretty wretched crisis. His pressure to remove restrictions more quickly than Chancellor Merkel wished has not stood the test of time, blaming outbreaks in meat processing plants in his state on the Bulgarians and Romanians who worked there made him look nasty, and images of his mask dangling beneath his nose did little for his standing. By contrast, Spahn is reportedly kicking himself for tying his colours to Laschet’s mast, having cut an impressive figure as a minister during the crisis (at least until the start of the vaccination programme – on which the jury is still out), and become the CDU’s most popular politician apart from Merkel. Röttgen was a surprise entrant to the contest – his decision to stand often attributed to a desire to raise his profile and secure the job of Foreign Minister in a future government. But he has become a possible recipient of backing from CDU members who like the idea of continuing with Merkel’s centrist political positioning, but feel underwhelmed by Laschet. Merz – by virtue of not holding elected office – has had a low profile in the pandemic, and a policy platform of distancing the CDU from Merkel’s approach has lost attractiveness given her exceptional popularity at present. Commentators tend to say that whereas Merz has strong support amongst the party’s grassroots, Laschet will probably have more backing from delegates. But perhaps the digital format will mix things up here too, reducing in some way the pressure to vote along lines pre-agreed with the state party.

               

              It seems very likely that, whoever wins, there will not be a quick decision to install them as the chancellor candidate of the CDU/CSU for the next federal election in September 2021. The leader of the CSU (the Bavarian wing of German Christian Democracy, organised as a separate party but with a joint group with the CDU in the Bundestag), Bavarian Minister President Markus Söder, has had a pretty good crisis. He has consistently supported tougher restrictions and his popularity ratings put him behind Merkel, narrowly ahead of Spahn, and streets ahead of Armin Laschet. On the two occasions when the CSU has fielded the CDU/CSU’s chancellor candidate things have not gone well for them – the rhetoric needed to be a popular Bavarian Minister President, celebrating all things Bavarian and embracing conservative social values, tends not to go down so well outside the region. However, Söder has struck a more consensual tone, and has been at particular pains in recent months to emphasise his green credentials. Söder has not ruled out a run, and some interpreted his demotion of Bavaria’s health minister last week as a statement of intent. Jens Spahn has also not ruled out a tilt at the top job, and the Spiegel news magazine reported he had been taking soundings. Another dark horse to watch may be Ralph Brinkhaus, the CDU/CSU parliamentary leader.

               

              Oddly, there is no established process to agree a chancellor candidate. When the Bavarian Franz Josef Strauss was chosen in 1980 (fun fact – his opponent was Ernst Albrecht, father of EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen), it was after a vote amongst CDU/CSU MPs. When Edmund Stoiber of the CSU claimed the role in 2002 ahead of Angela Merkel, it was by private agreement, famously over breakfast at Stoiber’s home. Party grandees are suggesting it will be important for the CDU to get two tough regional elections in mid-March out of the way before taking this decision. Both are difficult nuts for the party to crack, as the states in question, Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland Palatinate, are ones where the CDU should, on the basis of demographics, do well, but has underperformed and will face a job to displace the popular incumbents from the Greens and SPD respectively. Poor results in these states would make the choice of Spahn, Söder or even Brinkhaus more likely.

               

              Does all this matter? Absolutely it does. Given Germany’s position in the EU is as strong as ever (a point very powerfully demonstrated during its EU Council Presidency in the second half of 2020), the election of Merz would send a pretty strong message about the pace of fiscal consolidation that not only Germany, but also the rest of the EU, would expect to follow. The contenders also have very different instincts on foreign policy: Laschet is significantly more friendly to Russia than his two opponents are, for example. Merz’s views on climate policy are such that a coalition between the CDU/CSU and the Greens – by far the most likely outcome of the 2021 election – would be far harder to assemble. And of course, all this uncertainty reminds us just how big a void the departure of Angela Merkel from the political stage will leave.

               

              Image by Arno Mikkor under (CC).

              Footnotes
                Related Articles

                Parliament should have a meaningful vote on the EU trade deal. But it doesn’t

                Article by Dr Luke Cooper and Dr Sam Fowles

                December 30, 2020

                Parliament should have a meaningful vote on the EU trade deal. But it doesn’t

                It is often said Brexit has exposed deep problems in British democracy. But while this opinion is widely held, there is little agreement on the nature of these deficiencies. Brexit was meant to be all about returning sovereignty to the British Parliament, ‘taking back control’. Since 2016, however, British people have fewer rights and weaker democratic representation than at any point in the last half century.

                 

                There is no better example of this than the UK-EU trade negotiation. The deal sets out terms for the UK’s relationship with the EU for potentially decades into the future – though a ‘review period’ of the agreement is scheduled for every five years. It is one of the most important international agreements the UK has ever entered into. In 2019, UK exports to the EU were worth £294 billion, accounting for 43% of all UK exports.[1] Yet, one of the first things Boris Johnson did after his 2019 General Election victory, was to drop the previous commitments to ensuring parliamentary oversight of the deal.

                 

                When Johnson re-tabled the Withdrawal Agreement Bill he removed the provisions requiring the government to seek approval of its negotiating objectives from Parliament, the commitment to a final vote on the deal, and the need for the government to report to Parliament every three months on progress with the talks. The European Parliament, by contrast, was consulted on the EU’s negotiation mandate before talks began, regularly updated by negotiators, and the deal will not be even provisionally applied until MEPs have first considered it. MEPs will also have a ‘final vote’ to fully ratify the deal in the New Year.

                 

                By contrast, Brexit restored the ‘default setting’ for the UK Parliament’s role in ratifying international treaties. This dates back to the days of absolute monarchy and severely limits parliament’s role (as we explain below). In dragging negotiations out until the 11th hour (arguable unnecessarily), Johnson has massively squeezed the time available for MPs, experts, civil society, businesses and trade unions to read and scrutinise the deal.

                 

                The trade agreement itself is 1240 pages long and was published in full on the 26th December. MPs were then presented with a highly technical implementation bill on the afternoon of the 29th December which ran to 85 pages. The breadth of the issues to be considered is illustrated by clause 29 of the bill. This provides a “Henry VIII” power (a power to override primary legislation without a vote in parliament) to change any law that may conflict with the provisions of the Brexit deal. This measure could potentially impact the entire corpus of UK law.

                 

                MPs will get just a few hours to debate and vote on these documents on the 30th December, as the agreement is rushed through Parliament to meet Johnson’s deadline. This is an inherently undemocratic way of working. A complex deal, with huge implications for the future of the UK, rammed through with no time for any serious debate or amendment. Compare, for example, the Maastricht Agreement. Parliament was given more than 100 days over six months to discuss that treaty (which was actually far more limited in its impacts on the UK).

                 

                So British MPs that had little input into the UK negotiating position were now asked to accept the outcome of Johnson’s negotiation without even a yes or no vote. They are asked only to vote on the implementation. There is no parliamentary vote on the deal itself.

                 

                The UK’s impoverished democracy: executive dominance in ‘foreign affairs’ 

                The UK has for a long time had a cripplingly centralised system of government. One feature of this is how its parliamentary system tends to be totally dominated by the governing party – something that is only ever mitigated during periods of coalition or minority government.

                 

                This has created a system where the government has grown use to dictating its will to a Parliament with little independence. As the future Lord Chancellor, Lord Hailsham, put it in the 1970s, the British system was, in effect, an ‘elective dictatorship’ in which ‘the government controls Parliament and not Parliament the government’.[2]

                 

                One example of this is the control the government has over ‘foreign affairs’. It draws its power from the archaic principle of the ‘royal prerogative’. This is the rump of powers left over from the days in which England was governed as something approaching an absolute monarchy. While once they were exercised by the monarch in person, they are now exercised on their ‘behalf’ by the UK government. In foreign affairs they are particularly sweeping, giving the government the freedom to sign international treaties, declare war, and conduct other international negotiations with no need to consult Parliament.

                 

                In the twenty-first century this becomes particularly problematic. Whereas it was once the case that international agreements extended to a limited range of areas, today they are all-encompassing, reflecting the complex system of sovereignty and interdependence in our globalised world. Our food standards, consumer and digital rights, and environmental protections, to name just a few areas, are all subject to international agreements.

                 

                In this sense, Brexit was always built on a contradictory faultline. On the one hand, it declared the need to ‘take back control’, implying a criticism of the globalised system of international treaties and interdependence. On the other, Brexiters held Britain would go out in the world to sign new international agreements and trade deals with other states. But all of these deals will involve a sharing of sovereignty, balancing it with other goals and interests. The trade deal with the EU illustrates this problem. It affects a huge range of areas, from security and judicial matters, to transport and digital regulation, but Parliament has had little input into the deal – and barely has any say at all even over the final outcome.

                 

                Believe it or not, Parliament doesn’t get a vote on ratifying the UK-EU deal

                Parliament has no power to ratify or reject international treaties. While the UK was a member of the EU, the European Parliament had a right to scrutinise (and potentially reject) treaties that would bind the UK (as a member of the EU). For example, there was significant opposition to an EU-US trade deal from civil society, which was successful in convincing MEPs to wake up to its dangers.

                 

                This meant that representatives, elected by UK voters, had a genuine vote on many treaties affecting the UK. Brexit brought this to an end. The negotiation and ratification of treaties now is a matter for the UK only and falls within the Royal Prerogative. Since the latter days of the 19th century, there has been a convention that the executive will consult parliament before ratifying a treaty. In 2010 that convention was formalised by an act of parliament: the Constitutional Reform and Governance Act 2010 (“CRAGA” for short).

                 

                CRAGA requires the executive to lay a treaty before parliament for 21 days before exercising the prerogative power to ratify. Parliament can delay ratification, by requiring the executive to provide further information, but it cannot reject a treaty outright. Parliament’s power to delay requires it to pass a motion. But there’s another twist. The executive also controls the parliamentary timetable. With a few minor exceptions, the government determines what parliament debates, when, and for how long. If, therefore, the executive wants to avoid a delay in ratifying a treaty, it can simply deny MPs the time to hold a vote.

                 

                So what, then, are MP’s voting on with the Brexit deal? The bill before parliament is primarily an implementing instrument. Law, broadly put, manifests on two levels in this context: international law, and domestic law. Treaties, like the Brexit agreement, take effect in international law. They are basically contracts between states. If the UK is to fulfil its obligations under the Brexit agreement, then it must make various changes to its domestic law. The bill before parliament will give the executive powers to change domestic law so as to implement the Brexit treaty. The best way to describe what MPs are doing is that they are voting on how best to comply with the treaty.

                 

                The choice before MPs is not, therefore, whether they approve of the Brexit treaty, but what powers they will give to the government to implement the treaty. This is a question that has received almost no consideration in the public debate on the Brexit deal. This is primarily because legislators have been given less than 24 hours to review the bill before considering it in parliament. There should be forensic scrutiny of the extent and necessity of the powers that the government proposes to award itself. In the circumstances, however, this seems unlikely – indeed, perhaps simply impossible.

                 

                Why a ‘no deal’ is no longer possible

                It has been suggested that a failure to vote in favour of the Brexit deal is a vote for “no deal”. Such a suggestion is, from a legal and constitutional perspective, entirely wrong. Similarly, a vote in favour of the bill is not a vote in favour of the deal. It is simply a vote to give the executive the powers set out in the bill. But, of course, those who reject the Treaty may choose to use the vote against it to demonstrate their opposition, given that they have not been granted a vote on the agreement itself.

                 

                What would happen if parliament voted against the bill? First, it would have no effect on the government’s power to ratify the agreement. That power does not flow from parliament and parliament has no legal say over how it is exercised. The effect would, rather, be that the government may lack some of the powers it needs to implement the treaty in domestic law. This may, of course, lead to the UK finding itself in breach of the treaty at an early stage. A breach by a party does not, however, repudiate a treaty. The treaty remains in place. The other parties (in this case the EU) may choose to activate the dispute settlement and remedies clauses in the treaties. In the long term, they may impose sanctions to punish the UK for non-compliance. This, however, is a time-consuming process. More likely, the EU will afford the UK an informal “grace period” in which to make the required changes to domestic law.

                 

                It’s worth noting that clause 32 of the bill allows the government to bypass the CRAGA procedure and ratify the Brexit deal without first laying it before parliament. This might be seen as a sort of de facto “vote on the deal”. It’s not. CRAGA is not the source of the power to ratify, it merely provides an obligation to consult parliament. Without clause 32 the government will still have the power to ratify the Brexit deal. The CRAGA obligations would remain (requiring the government to lay the deal before parliament for 21 days before ratifying). The deal, however, could be given “provisional application” (meaning it is given effect subject to future ratification) in the interim. It could be, to all intents and purposes, as if the government ratified the deal on 31 December.

                 

                How to reform UK democracy 

                The EU trade deal creates a baroque structure of institutional ties between the UK and EU. They demonstrate the on-going importance of the UK relationship with Europe and the impossibility of a ‘pure sovereignty’. Our interdependence with Europe and the world will always require tradeoffs and negotiation with other states.

                 

                The deal creates a new ‘Partnership Council’ for ministerial negotiations, 19 specialised committees and four working groups. Agreements made at this European level will continue to impact on British domestic law. Yet, the UK government will be subject to next to no democratic scrutiny or oversight on what they seek to negotiate with the EU. They will be undertaken under the auspices of the ‘Crown in Parliament’.

                 

                This is also the case for the other trade deals on the horizon. A US trade deal, in

                particular, threatens sweeping deregulation.[3] But under the current system parliamentary oversight, let alone control, or this, or other, deals will be non-existent. It is a recipe for unaccountable power. This seems like the very opposite of ‘taking back control’.

                 

                The alternative to this system could be based on simple steps, to restore a position of authority for parliament in international negotiations and either radically minimise or abolish the sweeping authority granted to the Prime Minister under the royal prerogative. We have called this reform agenda the Not In Our Name Principle.[4] It would establish a new role for parliament in foreign affairs and international negotiation based on:

                 

                • Transparency, not secrecy. Establish a right for parliamentarians, citizens and civil society to know the positions the government is taking in ‘our name’ in international forums and negotiations.
                • The right to mandate. Give parliament the right to mandate particular positions taken by the UK government in international negotiations.
                • The right to a meaningful vote. Parliament would have to ratify international agreements. This would end the right of government to sign and break international agreements without any input from Parliament.

                 

                We believe that Brexit supporters should in principle back this agenda, which will only become more important as the UK tries to navigate the choppy waters of the post-Brexit era.

                 

                Dr Luke Cooper (@lukecooper100) is an academic in Politics and International Relations. He is an associate researcher with LSE IDEAS and a co‑host of the Another Europe podcast. His book, the Authoritarian Contagion, will be published by Bristol University Press in 2021.

                Sam Fowles (@SamFowles) is a barrister specialising in public and constitutional law. He is a member of Cornerstone Barristers and a Fellow at the Foreign Policy Centre. His book on constitutional crises will be published by Oneworld in 2021.

                [1] Matthew Ward, Statistics on UK-EU trade, November 2020, https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-7851/#:~:text=The%20EU%2C%20taken%20as%20a,2002%20to%2043%25%20in%202019.

                [2] Julian Petley, We are still perilously close to Hailsham’s ‘elective dictatorship’, LSE, September 2019, https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2019/09/30/we-are-closer-than-ever-to-hailshams-elective-dictatorship/

                [3] Nick Dearden, A toxic UK-US deal is just as likely under President Biden, The Guardian, November 2020, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/11/uk-us-deal-president-biden-big-business-boris-johnson

                [4] Dr Luke Cooper and Sam Fowles, Not in our name: Democracy and foreign affairs in the UK, Another Europe is Possible, December 2019,  https://www.anothereurope.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/not-in-our-name-briefing-a4-4pp.pdf

                Footnotes
                  Related Articles

                  Partnerships for the future of UK Foreign Policy: Executive Summary

                  Article by Adam Hug

                  December 16, 2020

                  Partnerships for the future of UK Foreign Policy: Executive Summary

                  After a prolonged period of introspection and tensions with longstanding partners, this publication shows the many different ways in which a Global Britain can reinvigorate its relationships with allies, alliances and institutions. The UK can show that it is willing to do the hard work to retain and build alliances with like-minded countries to make regional and global systems work in both the national and international interest. In order to build trust the UK should demonstrate that it still believes in the intrinsic value of international cooperation as more than simply an instrumental tool in its foreign policy kit because as an internationally focused middle power the UK benefits enormously from promoting wider global acceptance of international institutions and established norms.

                   

                  Irrespective of the UK’s Asia-Pacific aspirations, the UK’s security priorities are still overwhelmingly focused on Europe and so the UK needs to find a new way of working with the EU once the current sound and fury has subsided. This can start at an operational level where UK Embassies and EU Delegations can re-establish cooperation and information sharing on the ground in third countries and international institutions. In the future it may be possible to revisit issues such as formal foreign policy and security cooperation, as part of a future EU-UK Partnership and Cooperation Agreement or Strategic Partnership. Irrespective of the state of UK-EU relations Britain will need to redouble its efforts in the other European focused forums such as NATO, the OSCE and Council of Europe, with an emphasis on supporting the work these institutions do to promote democratic values.

                   

                  Globally the UK must build on its strong position at the UN and take full advantage of its leadership of both the COP and G7 in 2021 to set out an ambitious agenda for the UK’s future foreign policy. It should seek to build on ideas around a ‘Democracies-10’ (D10), by promoting expanded G7 membership to include South Korea and Australia. It should find new ways to promote engagement with the democracies of the global south and support UK NGOs and institutions such as the Westminster Foundation for Democracy to play a bigger role in democracy promotion. The UK will need to work flexibly and creatively with longstanding partners in new formats such as the Alliance for Multilateralism, the Accountability, Coherence and Transparency (ACT) coalition, as well continuing current efforts to build greater collaboration between the ‘CANZUK’ countries, though recognising the geographic and economic limitations to the scale of such ambitions.

                   

                  Based on the findings put forward in this collection, there are a number of recommendations that the UK Government and other partners could consider including:

                  • Finding a future framework for UK-EU cooperation in foreign and security policy and other non-trade areas, while rebuilding operational-level information sharing and cooperation;
                  • Enhancing parliamentary cooperation between the UK and European Parliaments and strengthening UK delegations to the NATO, OSCE and CoE Parliamentary Assemblies;
                  • Funding projects conducted by the OSCE and Council of Europe’s human rights mechanisms and supporting election observers as well as secondments and leadership candidacies;
                  • Working with the Commonwealth on modern slavery and supply chains, while promoting the Commonwealth Charter and the use of aid and trade to improve compliance with its principles;
                  • Using the UK Presidency of the G7 to refocus the organisation as the group of leading democracies by expanding its membership to include South Korea and Australia, while reinvigorating outreach to global south democracies;
                  • Supporting the UK’s role in democracy promotion by supporting British NGOs and the Westminster Foundation for Democracy; and
                  • Working creatively with forums like the Alliance for Multilateralism and the Accountability, Coherence and Transparency (ACT) coalition, while developing further CANZUK cooperation.
                  Footnotes
                    Related Articles

                    Partnerships for the future of UK Foreign Policy: Introduction

                    Article by Adam Hug

                    Partnerships for the future of UK Foreign Policy: Introduction

                    Alliances and partnerships have been at the heart of the UK’s foreign policy throughout its history and they will be central its future. While at different points in history the UK has been more or less engaged, diplomatically and militarily, with its neighbours on the continent or others around the world, despite popular myth in some quarters to the contrary, Britain has rarely stood truly alone for long.[1]

                     

                    However, this publication comes at a time when the precise nature of the UK’s future relationship with the EU remains unclear, though irrespective of the outcome of the negotiations the immediate scope of formal cooperation is significantly diminished, even from the May-era plans. As the UK seeks to move forward from this tumultuous period it will need not only to rethink how it works with the EU and its Member States but how it plans to work with other partners around the world not only bilaterally but particularly in existing multilateral institutions and new forums. The UK will need to show that it understands the interests of its partners as it tries to build on existing areas of cooperation and find new ones if it is to move forward effectively as a ‘Global Britain’.

                     

                    So this publication examines both the UK’s relationship with some of the most important existing multilateral and international institutions including the UN system, NATO, the OSCE, the Council of Europe and the Commonwealth. It looks at the scope for future UK-EU collaboration around shared interests and values, in the absence of a deep and structured partnership in foreign and security policy, while also examining the future of the US-UK relationship in a challenging and potentially changing environment. It also explores the possibilities of new formal and informal coalitions of like-minded countries to defend human rights and liberal democracy against growing authoritarian threats.

                     

                    The importance of multilateralism

                    The delayed, but hopefully imminent, Integrated Review will provide an important opportunity to lay out what the Government sees as its vision for the UK’s future engagement with multilateralism and the international rules based order. There are clear signs in its statements and actions that the Government is moving away from seeing the international rules based system as an end in itself and towards a more instrumental approach, though it has talked in terms of still supporting the core tenets of multilateralism. This may stem not only from this Government’s particular concerns of being bound by agreements that limit its freedom of action, a desire expressed clearly in its Brexit end state policy preferences, but also from the a realpolitik assessment of the emerging shape of the international order and the Government’s response to it.

                     

                    It is undoubtedly true that the UK and its allies no longer dominate the creation and shaping of the rules to the same extent that it used to, with countries in the global south more strongly asserting their interests. While such a more instrumental approach may seem attractive to some from a tactical perspective, it poses the obvious question as to why others who have not had a dominant role in setting the rules should be expected to follow them (something successive UK Governments have encouraged them to do for decades). A world where China is a major international force and the global south is more coordinated and confident in a range of different forums is not something that has come a surprise to the UK and other Western powers. It is only right that global power becomes more equitably distributed in many areas, while recognising the risks posed to the international system by authoritarian states as set out in the ‘The principles for Global Britain’ publication.[2]

                     

                    However many, including this editor, still believe that the international rule-based world order does have an intrinsic value, both morally and in terms of global stability, which is worth defending. This is particularly true for an internationally focused economy and society such as the UK, which benefits from having an international order with consistent rules and relative reliability rather than one red in tooth and claw. As the outgoing President Trump has shown, it is hard to make a transactional approach work even for a country the size of the US and it is not a way of operating that will prove effective for the UK.

                     

                    This publication does not seek to beatify the UN or other international bodies, nor to ignore the dysfunction that many of them face. As is set out in this and previous publications in the series the UK will have to do a lot of hard work to retain and build alliances with like-minded countries in different areas to make the global system work in both the national and international interest but it is imperative that it does so. The UK will also need to be able to have a functioning relationship with China, Russia and other powers that it has principled disagreements with on issues that transcend political systems and ideology such as climate change and the maintenance of international peace and security in areas that do not threaten the interests of respective parties.

                     

                    Traditional partners and institutions

                    It is something of an understatement to point out that the Conservative Government has substantially shifted its approach to the future relationship with the EU since September 2017 when it said that the UK: ‘will seek to agree new arrangements that enable us to sustain close UK-EU cooperation that will allow us to tackle our shared threats. The UK therefore envisages cooperation on external action to be central to our future partnership, complementing broader national security and law enforcement collaboration to tackle complex, multi-faceted threats.’[3]

                     

                    Under Boris Johnson’s leadership there have been no substantive discussions (at least not that have been shared with the public) between the UK and EU about a future foreign policy relationship forming part of any putative post-transition deal. Efforts to pin the blame for potential failure in the negotiations on the other party will sap mutual goodwill into the medium term, even if a last minute fix is found. Even after passions have cooled and the focus is able to rise from the minutia of trade negotiations it is unlikely the UK Government in its present form will want to pursue a particularly deep or structural future partnership on foreign and security policy with the EU. As Rosa Balfour says in her contribution to this collection the time for pragmatic proposals for future UK involvement and association with EU foreign and security policy have gone, for now. The UK has already taken steps to proactively partner with non-EU powers on initiatives and statements, most notably and fruitfully Canada, and the Foreign Secretary has actively encouraged diplomats to act in ways which show the UK has left the EU. However, it is important to ensure diplomats, and where political will exists politicians, are not discouraged from continuing to find ways, both traditional and creative, to keep working together with the EU institutionally where it is in the UK national interest, a new modus vivendi that recognises the enduring nature of many still shared values. The UK may wish that more could be achieved by purely bilateral initiatives with key EU partner countries but as the progress of the trade negotiations have shown member states are loathe to do things that could potentially  undermine or side-line EU institutions in areas where the EU has competence on their behalf. The UK is no longer a member state seeking to build alliances to shape EU decisions on which it has a say, but it is now a third country and which will necessitate working with the EU External Action Service and EU Commission where these institutions are delivering the agenda of member states.

                     

                    So In the medium to longer term it would still be extremely helpful for the UK have some form of structured agreement or at least a semi-structured engagement with the EU around foreign and security policy. This is in recognition of: the somewhat process-driven ways in which the EU conducts its foreign policy (managing the interests of 27 member states), shared values between the UK and EU and the EU’s institutional weight in areas of interest to the UK. As Professor Jamie Shea points out in his essay: ‘the UK had the opportunity even from outside the EU to associate itself with these developments when it concluded the Political Declaration on the Future Relationship at the same time as the Withdrawal Agreement.[4] The Declaration opened up many prospects for cooperation on terrorism, intelligence and data exchange, UK participation in CSDP missions, observer status at some EU foreign and defence ministers meetings and European Councils and third party access to certain EU capabilities programmes where it has something to contribute’ but that these are not opportunities the UK has decided to take up. He also points out that the absence of the UK in the EU is likely to further expedite the expansion of EU competences in the area of defence and security, which will hamper both the British desire to expand bilateral defence cooperation with EU member states and shift certain discussions away from NATO, the UK’s long-preferred venue for security cooperation.

                     

                    As Shea points out the Government currently sees ‘Brexit as giving it equality of status with the EU and therefore will not accept to be a non-voting participant or observer at EU meetings’. Even if a future government is not as wedded to this particular view it will be a continuing issue of political contention. Irrespective of whether a trade deal can be done, either now or in the future, it is to be hoped that the UK and EU can find a way to agree either a Partnership and Cooperation Agreement or a Strategic Partnership Agreement that can formalise future non-trade cooperation and facilitate peer to peer level structured engagement and dialogue, including periodic summits and official meetings. A way could potentially be found within such a framework to operationalise greater information sharing and dialogue over the development of both the EU’s Common Foreign and Security policy and the UK’s foreign policy.[5]

                     

                    Another feature of such an agreement could be to provide structure to future dialogue between Parliaments. For far too long the level of understanding about how EU institutions operate at Westminster has been sub-optimal, with the average UK Parliamentarian’s previous engagement with the European Parliament often mediated through interactions with their party’s MEPs, usually in either social or political campaigning situations that didn’t provide particular illumination about the European Parliament’s role or ways of working. At present, there is no EU Parliament Delegation to the UK, though the European Parliament retains a liaison office in London based at Europe House, home to the EU Delegation to the UK.[6] International engagement overall by the UK Parliament is something of a patchwork with formal delegations reserved only for participation in the Parliamentary Assemblies of the OSCE, NATO and Council of Europe.[7] At the other end of the spectrum of formality are the All-Party Parliamentary Country Groups, ad hoc groupings of MPs have no funding or administrative support other than that provided by the MPs themselves or external sponsors (including often the Embassies of the country in question).[8] In the middle sit the Commonwealth Parliamentary Association (CPA), the Inter-Parliamentary Union (IPU) and the British-American Parliamentary Group (BAPG) whose UK chapters have offices within the Parliamentary Estate and coordinate collaborations between parliamentarians from countries within their memberships.[9] It is the BAPG, with alternating annual conferences, Governmental-backing and part financing from the UK Parliamentary Authorities, which could provide the model for the UK side of a future structured dialogue between the UK and European Parliaments that both sides would benefit from.

                     

                    As the UK completes its withdrawal from its structured relationship with the most significant pan-European institution it is important that the UK seeks to find ways to redouble its efforts to engage with the other major institutions that bring the UK in to contact with its European partners, notably the OSCE, Council of Europe and NATO. The particular challenges the UK needs to respond to in relation to these organisations are addressed in the essays by Anna Chernova, Prof Jamie Shea and by Dr Alice Donald and Prof Philip Leach respectively. All three institutions have faced significant structural challenges in recent years, the first two due to increasing tensions driven by growing authoritarian assertiveness from Turkey, Russia and a number of others in the post-Soviet space; the latter by the interaction between the Trump Presidency’s abusive approach and the long-standing failure of many members to meet their agreed defence spending obligations.

                     

                    The incoming Biden administration provides NATO with some breathing space but the structural problems remain around funding, capability, the US pivot to Asia, the role of Turkey and the EU’s growing competences in the defence and security arena.[10] The UK has long opposed this latter development but will find it harder to raise such objection from outside the EU and in the absence of a structured agreement with the EU, as mentioned above, the UK will have to find new ways to make NATO structures for collaboration more attractive if it wishes to stem the further flow of responsibility from NATO to the EU.

                     

                    The OSCE and Council of Europe have a lower profile in the British public debate, though the latter sometimes gets thrust into the limelight when a row over the findings of its European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) reaches tabloid attention. Their Parliamentary Assemblies, though deeply flawed, provide important opportunities for international dialogue between Parliamentarians. However perhaps more importantly both institutions provide the architecture for a number of human rights bodies and conflict resolution mechanisms that play an important role, particularly in the post-Soviet space, in underpinning the values Britain seeks to promote. These include not only the ECtHR, but the Council of Europe’s Commissioner for Human Rights, the Venice Commission (the European Commission for Democracy through Law), the OSCE’s Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR), the OSCE’s Representative on Freedom of the Media (RFoM) and its High Commissioner on National Minorities (HCNM). As part of the Integrated Review and new thinking about the use of UK aid, the Government could explore ways to directly fund projects by these mechanisms to promote open societies and human rights in countries that meet the OECD Development Assistance Committee (DAC) criteria for aid eligibility.

                     

                    As Donald and Leach point out the UK’s occasionally fraught debate about the ECtHR already has helped give political space for Russia and other authoritarian countries to downgrade their level of compliance with Court rulings. The long-promised but recently announced review of the UK’s Human Rights Act, includes a focus on the relationship between domestic courts and the ECtHR, carries the risk of undermining the situation still further if not handled with care and an international perspective that ensures the UK’s adherence to the European Convention on Human Rights and ECtHR rulings are maintained.[11] Both the Chernova and Donald and Leach essays also raise an important point, made previously by this author as well, that the UK should find ways to improve the stature and relevance of UK delegations, something that could include enhancing their cooperation with Government, relevant Select Committee (particularly the Foreign Affairs and Defence Select Committees in the Commons and the Lords International Relations Committee(s)) and the Joint Committee on Human Rights, as well as loosening control of party whips and the Prime Minister by allowing direct election by MPs.[12]

                     

                    With democracy under threat throughout the region, the Government should find ways to protect and expand its active participation in the OSCE ODIHR’s gold standard independent election observation missions that often provide the only credible assessment of democratic performance on the ground within the OSCE region.[13] If opportunities arise the UK should be more proactive in putting forward qualified candidates to head in country offices on secondment and it should find ways to encourage and support UK officials who wish to take time out of their FCDO careers to work in the administrations of these organisations, as well as considering potential candidates for the top jobs in future.

                     

                    Once touted as the future of the UK’s post-Brexit foreign and trade policy the Commonwealth itself has not been place at the centre of the recent British debate, with focus narrowing to collaboration with its largest and most developed members as set out in the next section. This is perhaps in recognition of the divergent global priorities of many of the Commonwealth’s members, many of whom often operate through global south bodies such as the G77 at the UN. In their essay in this collection, Sanjoy Hazarika and Sneh Aurora highlight ways in which the UK could be proactive in working with and through the Commonwealth to promote human rights and good governance. They argue that the UK could lead the Commonwealth in addressing issues around Modern Slavery and abuse in supply chains that link both developed and developing members of the organisation.

                     

                    One further idea might be looking at ways in which the Commonwealth Charter, adopted by the 53 member states in 2012 and signed by the Queen in 2013, could be increasingly used by the UK as a framework to underpin its relationships with Commonwealth countries and promote the values contained within it.[14] Although the document is not a binding treaty it is an agreed statement of shared values and aspirations by the member countries made less than a decade ago. The UK could utilise charter as a tool alongside UN treaties to shape its emerging approach to greater human rights conditionality in the distribution of UK aid.

                     

                    At a global level the UK’s position as a member of UN Security Council’s permanent members, the role as the third largest financial contributor and significant diplomatic presence give it a continuing position of institutional influence as Richard Gowan and Enyseh Teimory point out in their essays.[15] The UK is currently seen to have played its hand effectively at the UN, on issues including the Iran nuclear issue, climate and Sudan. The UK’s re-election to the UN Human Rights Council until 2023, having recently served a term ending in 2019, will continue to give the UK a platform to advocate for its values.[16] The UK could, however, do more in this regard by supporting more UK nationals to serve on UN Treaty Bodies and as UN Special Rapporteurs (SRs) and for the Government to respond in a more considered fashion when SRs’ criticise the UK’s own policies, even though it may not agree with them, given that it regularly encourages other countries to work with SRs and adopt their findings.[17]

                     

                    This section started with the future of the UK’s relationships with the European pillar of its traditional alliance structure and ends with the relationship with Washington. Despite the ongoing tumult and further damaging of democratic norms as President Trump heads for the exit, the incoming Biden administration should provide an opportunity to bring greater stability and focus to transatlantic relationships including with the UK, particularly by cooling concerns over the future of NATO. Much has already been made of the Biden team’s scepticism towards Brexit and how the change of administration pauses any immediate opportunity for a UK-US trade deal, a process that was already replete with political challenges. Given the scale of Trump’s unpopularity with the vast majority of the British public, including the majority of Conservative voters, a Biden Presidency could take considerable political heat out of future US-UK cooperation.[18]

                     

                    In London, the Government has been energetically trying to use the UK’s leadership of the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) and its commitment to tackling climate change as a way of redefining perceptions in the Democratic Party about the British Conservatives under Johnson. Given the level of priority being given to climate by Biden, the COP in Glasgow provides an essential mechanism for facilitating collaboration between London and Washington but the UK’s withdrawal from the EU will still shift the nature of the relationship over the medium term.

                     

                    Despite the British political elite’s obsession with US politics, the row over the Northern Irish protocol suggests a lingering blind spot in terms of understanding Congressional priorities. There may be scope for encouraging the US Embassy in Washington to expand its bipartisan congressional outreach, to balance its traditional focus on engaging the Administration of the day. This could be complemented by enhancing Parliamentary engagement beyond periodic visits by Select Committees and support for the British-American Parliamentary Group.[19]

                     

                    New partnerships

                    In addition to climate, another central pillar of the incoming Biden Administration’s foreign policy agenda is likely to be the promotion of democracy, including a pledge to convene a ‘Summit of Democracies’. Similar ideas have been floated by previous US leaders with President Obama suggesting the need for a ‘Concert of Democracies’ or former Senator John McCain’s calls for a ‘League of Democracies’ but the scale of democratic retrenchment gives greater urgency to such initiatives. There has been a flurry of different suggestions about how to formalise such initiatives in to new organisational structures, with the idea of a ‘D10’ that adds countries such as South Korea, Australia and potentially India to the G7 gaining traction. The still lingering shock to the international system of the Trump years, the continuing rise of China, the spoiler role played by Russia and the expansion of authoritarianism around the world provides a clear impetus to such efforts. Another separate but often interlinked driver is a desire to increase cooperation in the field of digital cooperation and regulation to prevent authoritarian powers from setting the rules of the game including in emerging areas of AI and cyber security.

                     

                    As the UK holds the Presidency of the G7 in 2021 it has the ability to play a pivotal role in shaping the evolution of such efforts. One central challenge it faces is in deciding which ‘D’ is most important for any such project. Since the decision to exclude Russia from the G8, the G7 has in effect reverted to being a forum for the larger economically advanced democracies but one, bar the notable exception of Japan, with a traditional transatlantic focus.[20] The idea for a D10 has its genesis in US State Department-led convening policy planners of allied states since 2008 that has evolved into a broader set of initiatives since 2013, involving participating Governments and organisations such as the Atlantic Council, the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS) and the Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI- home to Aaron Shull and Wesley Wark who write in this collection).[21] The D10-Strategy Forum, where the ‘D’ stands for Democracies, brings together the G7 member nations, the EU (which attends G7 meetings) plus South Korea and Australia, meets annually since 2014, and there have been a number of calls for G7 to formally expand to mirror this format.[22]

                     

                    Yet particularly during 2020, in the context of increasing tensions with China, discussions have turned to use such a forum as the backbone of a new digital security alliance, overlapping with discussions about using the current Five Eyes Intelligence Alliance as the basis for similar collaboration.[23] The question of whether the ‘D’ stands for Democracy or Digital would not only shape the institutional priorities of the new organisation but potentially its membership. A critical decision would be over the inclusion of India – a country whose security ties with the US, Japan and Australia are expanding through the role of ‘the Quad’ in the Indo-Pacific region and that continues a low-level conflict with China over border disputes in the Himalayas, but which also has for many years acted with different priorities to the current G7 at the UN and in other international forums.[24] However, under Prime Minister Modi there is every sign that democracy, certainly in the sense of a liberal democracy subject to rule of law and with protections for minorities, in the country is in significant retreat.[25] So if the promotion of ‘Democracy’ is the paramount goal for this new organisation, then now is not the time for India to be welcomed into such a forum, and the G7 expansion should be limited to bringing in South Korea and Australia to mirror the existing informal arrangements of the D10-Strategy Forum.[26]

                     

                    This is not to say there is not scope for further economic and security cooperation but any engagement needs to try to avoid legitimating Modi’s erosion of democratic norms and ensuring the new format can pro-actively respond to the global crisis of democracy. The UK should try to avoid its post-Brexit desire to boost trade with India from becoming interlinked with such decision-making. Also for issues relating digital infrastructure more thought be given on how to involve the EU and member states, notably Sweden and Finland given their tech companies (Ericsson and Nokia) are central to efforts to provide alternatives to Chinese made systems. So there is a strong case for new architecture for managing digital threats being complimentary, potentially overlapping with, but broader than the focus for any new ‘D’ format institution.

                     

                    While building and strengthening relationships with other consolidated democracies it is essential to find ways to improve relations with a broader range of likeminded partners, particularly in the global south, something that is both inherently of value but also essential to prevent isolation on the world stage. So irrespective of whether or not India under its current leadership is included in any revised group of large democracies, there is clearly a need to also reach out more to a large group of democracies in some capacity. In his essay Thomas E. Garrett makes the case that his organisation, the Community of Democracies (to which the UK is an active contributor), could be a platform to do this. There is certainly an important case to avoid unnecessarily reinventing the wheel, given the existing infrastructure and signatories to the Warsaw Declaration, however thought would need to be given to setting more exacting standards for democratic compliance (given some of the currently participating states) that in turn led to greater benefits for participants.[27] New ways should be found to promote the experiences of countries like Mauritius and Costa Rica to ensure that democracy promotion is not only about modelling behaviours found in the ‘West’.[28]

                     

                    Increased cooperation between democracies must try to avoid creating unnecessary divides with members of the G77 (the group of 134 developing nations that often make joint statements in concert with China), particularly those who are themselves democracies or genuinely seeking to reform.[29] If such democracy focused alliances end up being used primarily to drive the economic objectives of rich powers in opposition to the interests of developing economies rather than shared objectives it would be an enormous strategic error. It would exacerbate rather than reduce the structural inequalities in the international system and open the door for authoritarian powers to further position themselves as the friend of developing nations against Western arrogance. Similarly, as Teimory and others point out, the UK and others need to avoid falling into a rigid cold-war style binary as there are issues, particularly climate change, that require active collaboration with non-democracies and where interests and values may align irrespective of government type. Active and nimble diplomacy will be needed to avoid pro-democracy initiatives triggering additional authoritarian collaboration unnecessarily.

                     

                    Any UK diplomatic leadership on new global initiatives should be bolstered by efforts to enhance its support for democracy promotion, governance and human rights. This has been a common theme of the previous publications in this series, which looked at ways that the FCDO’s new priority on supporting Open Societies could be used to buttress initiatives by British NGOs and academics, as well as better aligning aid and trade with human rights objectives.[30] In addition to such initiatives, the UK has an opportunity to support the further expansion of both the capacity and scope of the Westminster Foundation for Democracy, the UK’s arms-length democracy promotion institution.[31] Despite its recent growth it remains far smaller the US’s National Endowment for Democracy (and its related institutions NDI, IRI and the Solidarity Centre) or a number of the Government supported German Stiftung (such as the Konrad Adenauer or Friedrich Ebert Foundations).

                     

                    As set out above, the UK needs to find new forums to engage with European partners and the Alliance for Multilateralism, a Franco-German led initiative, discussed in Thorsten Benner’s essay, could provide a flexible platform to do that, particularly in the context of flexibility being a core objective of the UK’s emerging approach and the strong track record of notably Anglo-German cooperation at the UN, as noted in Gowan’s contribution.[32] The UK has so far participated in this forum at official and junior Ministerial Level but involving the Secretary of State in future would boost British presence and profile in these forums.

                     

                    As touched on in earlier publications in this series, the UK is also looking to build on its close historic and cultural ties with Canada, Australia and New Zealand. Recent partnership working has been most pronounced with Canada, through initiatives such as the jointly chaired Media Freedom Coalition and joint statements on Nagorno-Karabakh and Hong-Kong (where they were joined by Australia).[33] As Shull and Wark point out the UK and Canada “have a number of comparable interests in the conduct of global affairs […] both benefit from a stable rules-based global order and from certainty within international institutions” and, perhaps something that still needs internalising for some British commentators, “both Canada and the UK are too small to throw their weight around, like China and the United States.” There may well be scope to further expand collaboration within an informal ‘CANZUK’ grouping given the range of shared interests and values but this will not fully overcome the realities of geography that shape differing regional economic and security priorities for each partner. The UK may see its links to Australia and New Zealand as a springboard into the Pacific but more thought needs to go into identifying what either country would get out of such an approach. Proposals to turn such CANZUK cooperation into a formal alliance (of any great depth) should be treated with some scepticism given these differing priorities, pre-existing regional ties and primary economic relationships. The UK needs to ensure it is proactively engaging with these countries on the basis of mutually agreed current priorities rather than assumptions about a shared past.[34]

                     

                     

                    [1] There is sometimes a tendency to conflate the desire to maintain the balance of power in Continental Europe during Britain’s rise to control a Global Empire with isolationism, Prof Jamie Shea notes the continued presence of the UK in continental affairs in the 18th and 19th Centuries as part of the evolving web of alliances. Following the Norman Conquest the English Crown was tied to the continent through feudal holdings, expansionist ambitions and participation in the Crusades, its level of engagement often shaped by its population size and state of the public finances before the politics of religion created fissures during the reformation. Perhaps the UK’s historical focus on the Elizabethan-era and Battle of Britain colours perspectives somewhat but even at these times the UK was still working with allies to achieve its goals.

                    [2] The principles for Global Britain, FPC, September 2020, https://fpc.org.uk/publications/the-principles-for-global-britain/

                    [3] Department for Exiting the European Union, Foreign policy, defence and development – a future partnership paper, Government, September 2017, https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/foreign-policy-defence-and-development-a-future-partnership-paper

                    [4] European Commission, The EU-UK Withdrawal Agreement, January 2020, https://ec.europa.eu/info/european-union-and-united-kingdom-forging-new-partnership/eu-uk-withdrawal-agreement_en

                    [5] The UK would have to think creatively about what that might look like given that it would not be appropriate for EU representatives to sit in on existing ministerial level meetings. A recent paper by Ian Bond of CER provides a more substantial analysis of the range of different cooperation models open to the UK and EU. See: Ian Bond, Post-Brexit foreign, security and defence co-operation: we don’t want to talk about it, CER, November 2020, https://www.cer.eu/publications/archive/policy-brief/2020/post-brexit-foreign-security-and-defence-co-operation-we-dont

                    [6] List of delegations by type, Delegations European Parliament, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/delegations/en/list/bytype. For an overview of the formal status of the different types of EP delegations see here: Outside the EU, EPP Group within interparliamentary delegations, EPP Group, https://www.eppgroup.eu/how-we-make-it-happen/outside-eu; European Parliament Liaison Office in the United Kingdom, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/unitedkingdom/en/home-page.html

                    [7] Delegations to Parliamentary Assemblies, UK Parliament, https://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-offices/offices/delegations/

                    [8] Register of All-Party Parliamentary Groups [as at 4 November 2020], Parliament.uk, https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm/cmallparty/201104/contents.htm

                    [9] There is also the British Irish Parliamentary Assembly, which is clerked by officials from the British Parliament and the Irish Oireachtas which has a formal standing under the Good Friday Agreement since 1998. See: Secretariat, British-Irish Parliamentary Assembly, http://www.britishirish.org/secretariat/

                    [10] On a related note this paper provides a good blue print for new institutional objectives: George Robertson, Michael Fallon, Catherine Ashton, Peter Ricketts, Menzies Campbell and Benedict Wilkinson, The future strategic direction of NATO, The Policy Institute and King’s College London, July 2020, https://www.kcl.ac.uk/policy-institute/assets/the-future-strategic-direction-of-nato.pdf

                    [11] Michael Cross, Buckland unveils Human Rights Act review, The Law Society Gazette, December 2020, https://www.lawgazette.co.uk/law/buckland-unveils-human-rights-act-review/5106704.article

                    [12] Institutionally blind? International organisations and human rights abuses in the former Soviet Union, FPC, February 2016, https://fpc.org.uk/publications/institutionallyblind/

                    [13] As set out in previous FPC publications, including Institutionally Blind, authoritarian regimes are increasingly trying to use handpicked observers and Potemkin observation missions to try and provide external validation of their rigged elections, something that shamefully some Western Parliamentarians have participated in. This makes protecting independent and objective observation missions ever more vital at a time of limited institutional resources.

                    [14] Charter of the Commonwealth, Signed by Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II, Head of the Commonwealth, Commonwealth Day 2013, https://thecommonwealth.org/sites/default/files/page/documents/CharteroftheCommonwealth.pdf

                    [15] Member States’ Assessed Share of the UN Budget, Assessment of Member States’ Contribution to the UN Regular Budget, GPF, https://www.globalpolicy.org/un-finance/tables-and-charts-on-un-finance/member-states-assessed-share-of-the-un-budget.html

                    [16] Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office and Lord Ahmad of Wimbledon, UK elected to UN Human Rights Council for the term 2021-23, Gov.uk, October 2020, https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-elected-to-un-human-rights-council-for-the-term-2021-23; Membership of the Human Rights Council, 1 January – 31 December 2019 by regional groups, United Nations Human Rights Council, OHCHR, https://www.ohchr.org/EN/HRBodies/HRC/Pages/Group2019.aspx

                    [17] The UK currently has one representative on treaty bodies, xx Malcolm Evans, and one Special Rapporteur Ms. Rhona SMITH for Cambodia, with Sorcha MACLEOD, a member of a working group. See:  Thematic Mandates, OHCHR, https://spinternet.ohchr.org/ViewAllCountryMandates.aspx?Type=TM&lang=en

                    [18] Cristina Gallardo, Not a single UK constituency would vote for Donald Trump: Poll, Politico, November 2020, https://www.politico.eu/article/not-a-single-uk-constituency-would-vote-for-donald-trump-poll/

                    [19] British-American Parliamentary Group, Organisation, http://www.bapg.org.uk/about-us/organisation/

                    [20] The G20 has increasingly taken over the G7’s former role in providing leadership on Global issues.

                    [21] D-10 Strategy Forum, Atlantic Council, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/programs/scowcroft-center-for-strategy-and-security/global-strategy-initiative/democratic-order-initiative/d-10-strategy-forum/. The first D-10 Strategy Forum was hosted by the Canadian Foreign Ministry in partnership with CIGI and GMFUS in 2014. See: CIGI, Transatlantic Academy and GMF, D-10 Strategy Forum Meeting Report, CIGI, July 2014,  https://www.cigionline.org/sites/default/files/d-10_strategy_forum_meeting_report.pdf

                    [22] Such as: Ash Jain and Matthew Kroenig, Present at the re-creation: A global strategy for revitalizing, adapting, and defending a rules-based international system, Atlantic Council, October 2019, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/report/present-at-the-re-creation/

                    [23] Patrick Wintour, Five Eyes alliance could expand in scope to counteract China, The Guardian, July 2020, https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/jul/29/five-eyes-alliance-could-expand-in-scope-to-counteract-china

                    [24] Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, The Diplomant, https://thediplomat.com/tag/quadrilateral-security-dialogue/

                    [25] Narendra Modi threatens to turn India into a one-party state, The Economist, November 2020, https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/11/28/narendra-modi-threatens-to-turn-india-into-a-one-party-state

                    [26] The EU is already included in the G7 format and needs to play an active part but any plans for full membership could not feasibly work if unanimity under the Common Foreign and Security Policy was required to agree to communiques and other agreements through the forum.

                    [27] The Community’s breadth is both a strength (in terms of potential reach that can help those on genuinely democratic transitions) and a weakness given that Governing Council includes countries such as Morocco and Mali (in the wake of its coup) that are not democracies as well as countries such as Hungary and Poland that can no longer be classed as Liberal Democracies. See: Community of Democracies, Governing Council, https://community-democracies.org/values/governing-council/

                    [28] Economic and geopolitical insight guiding the world’s organisations, The Economist Intelligence Unit, http://www.eiu.com/Handlers/WhitepaperHandler.ashx?fi=Democracy-Index-2019.pdf&mode=wp&campaignid=democracyindex2019

                    [29] The Group of 77 at the United Nations, Latest Statements and Speeches, https://www.g77.org/

                    [30] Including the editor above and in previous ‘Finding Britain’s role in a changing world’ series: The principles for Global Britain, FPC, September 2020, https://fpc.org.uk/publications/the-principles-for-global-britain/; Protecting the UK’s ability to defend its values, FPC, September 2020, https://fpc.org.uk/publications/protecting-the-uks-ability-to-defend-its-values/; and Projecting the UK’s values abroad, FPC, December 2020, https://fpc.org.uk/publications/projecting-the-uks-values-abroad/

                    [31] The WFD is an Executive Non-Departmental Public Body of the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office. Its funding for the most recent financial year, 2019-20, was £16.2m, over double its position in 2015-16. See: Funding and Accounts, WFD, https://www.wfd.org/transparency/funding-and-accounts/

                    [32] Alliance for Multilateralism, www.multilateralism.org

                    [33] Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office and The Rt Hon Dominic Raab MP, Nagorno-Karabakh: UK and Canada joint statement in response to continued military clashes, Gov.uk, October 2020, https://www.gov.uk/government/news/nagorno-karabakh-uk-and-canada-joint-statement-in-response-to-continued-military-clashes#:~:text=The%20UK%20and%20Canada%20have,and%20Azerbaijan%20in%20Nagorno%2DKarabakh.&text=Canada%20and%20the%20United%20Kingdom,the%20Nagorno%2DKarabakh%20conflict%20zone; Foreign & Commonwealth Office and The Rt Hon Dominic Raab MP Joint Statement from the UK, Australia and Canada on Hong Kong, Gov.uk, May 2020, https://www.gov.uk/government/news/joint-statement-from-the-uk-australia-and-canada-on-hong-kong

                    [34] Andrew Roberts, It’s Time to Revive the Anglosphere, WSJ, August 2020, https://www.wsj.com/articles/its-time-to-revive-the-anglosphere-11596859260?mod=e2tw; Comments to – Peter Geoghegan, Adventures in ‘Canzuk’: why Brexiters are pinning their hopes on imperial nostalgia, The Guardian, September 2020, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/sep/09/canzuk-brexiters-imperial-canada-australia-new-zealand-uk-empire?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other#comments

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